I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Posted: Sun Aug 31, 2008 1:48 pm Post subject: Re: RUSSIA PREPARES TO CUT OIL TO WEST WITHIN DAYS. !!!!!
Look at it from a different perspective: westerners are getting disillusioned with the "war on terror." No tangible progress towards an end, no Osama swinging in the gallows, lots of dead soldiers, around 30,000 seriously wounded/disabled. We're in a recession with no real hope on the horizon, and we're spending 10 billion+ a month for...what?
We need a new enemy for public support to get behind. N. Korea? That guy's too crazy and unpredictable to spin or 'mericans to understand. Iran? Something with the PR got botched. Besides, they might actually pull the trigger if we push them too far.
Russia is a safe enemy. The neocons can stir the pot as much as they want without risking too much, since Russia doesn't have much to gain from armed conflict with the west. Plus, they're the demons of the cold war right? I expect them to work overtime trying to make this seem like all kinds of horrible things could happen if...omg! We need a war hero in office with some experience with war!
Carlhole wrote:
Alcassin wrote:
Hmmm... Nothing will happen, Telegraph is just printing some more anti-Russian propaganda, nothing new, but it can......scare people. That's the point.
Russians are not going to put embargo on their major source of euros and dollars. It's economically stupid, and politically outrageous. And all this crap that Russia is going to disappear in 100 years - oh, what are you smoking man, give me some. There no chance for another Yeltsin.
It's amazing how US and British media co-ordinate propaganda. Personally, I think the British press is a little less propagandized than the US press but they are identical on certain specific topics -- the demonization of Russia is one of them.
Posted: Sun Aug 31, 2008 3:21 pm Post subject: Re: RUSSIA PREPARES TO CUT OIL TO WEST WITHIN DAYS. !!!!!
In what way is oil fungible? Just trying to understand what you're saying here.
Starvid wrote:
This is just totally stupid. It is written by some idiot who doesn't understand that oil is a fungible commodity. Still, that includes the majority of the posters on this board.
Joined: Feb 20, 2005 Posts: 2880 Location: Uppsala, Sweden
Posted: Sun Aug 31, 2008 3:33 pm Post subject: Re: RUSSIA PREPARES TO CUT OIL TO WEST WITHIN DAYS. !!!!!
Wikipedia wrote:
Fungibility is the property of a good or a commodity whose individual units are capable of mutual substitution. Examples of highly fungible commodities are crude oil, electricity, precious metals, and many currencies.
Let's say Russia reduce oil supplies to Europe and instead send the oil somewhere else... like China. Say X mbpd.
Now suddenly China ends up with X mbpd more than they need so they cancel a contract of X mbpd with... Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia now has a surplus of X mbpd and needs a new buyer... hey, Europe lacks X mbdp, let's sell to them!
That's what fungible means.
Of course in the real world it's a bit more complicated because of different oil grades and different refineries, but that doens't really change the big picture much.
If the rumor monger understood anything about energy he would have said that gas, not oil, supplies would have been cut (not that would make the slightest lick of sense from the Russian perspective, but anyway) because gas is not a fungible commodity traded on the world market but rather a regional commodity generally tied to pipelines. _________________ Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
Posted: Sun Aug 31, 2008 3:39 pm Post subject: Re: RUSSIA PREPARES TO CUT OIL TO WEST WITHIN DAYS. !!!!!
As I understood the article/idea it would be more of Russia trying to induce and attitude adjustment on Europe by closing the spigot for, say, one week. they go off line for that amount of time and prices go through the roof. They then open the spigot again.
Would such a tactic have risks? Of course. But so does any tactic. Would it be smart? I have no idea. _________________ “It does not do to leave a live dragon out of your calculations, if you live near him.”
Joined: Aug 23, 2004 Posts: 525 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Sun Aug 31, 2008 3:49 pm Post subject: Re: RUSSIA PREPARES TO CUT OIL TO WEST WITHIN DAYS. !!!!!
You could have an 'accident' about once a month that shut down the pipeline for a day.
It wouldn't affect the population and the papers wouldn't care. But it would tear through inventories and put the wind up the various parliments. _________________ Congress has found themselves in a bear trap. They will chew off three legs, and still be caught in it...
Joined: Feb 20, 2005 Posts: 2880 Location: Uppsala, Sweden
Posted: Sun Aug 31, 2008 3:53 pm Post subject: Re: RUSSIA PREPARES TO CUT OIL TO WEST WITHIN DAYS. !!!!!
wisconsin_cur wrote:
As I understood the article/idea it would be more of Russia trying to induce and attitude adjustment on Europe by closing the spigot for, say, one week. they go off line for that amount of time and prices go through the roof. They then open the spigot again. Would such a tactic have risks? Of course. But so does any tactic. Would it be smart? I have no idea.
Doing this with oil would hurt Europe just as much or as little as it would hurt China, Brazil or Lebanon because oil is a fungible commodity.
Doing it for gas would completely wreck the reputation and relations Gazprom and its predecessor the Soviet Gas Ministry has built up with the importing nations for the last 40+ years. It would be absolutely unprecedented as Gazprom has never ever broken a contract with its western customers.
Indeed, it has succumbed to Ukrainian blackmail every single time they have pushed Gazprom. Remember when Russia cut deliveries to Ukraine but not to Europe and Ukraine answered by stealing the gas sent to Europe? Instead of playing hardball the Russians caved and agreed to let the Ukrainians keep buying gas for under the market price they ask the Western European nations to pay.
If Russia insanely enough would destroy this almost half century long extremely stable relationship the European reaction would be swift and crystal clear: a complete elimination of Russian gas imports within say 5 years.
Then the Russians can try to eat their gas. _________________ Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
Posted: Sun Aug 31, 2008 3:57 pm Post subject: Re: RUSSIA PREPARES TO CUT OIL TO WEST WITHIN DAYS. !!!!!
Perhaps you are right... I thought many other nations already had long-term contracts and would then be insulated a bit.
I would also say that relations between the west and russia are already... "strained."
Where would that European gas come from? Could LNG be geared up that fast? Could it be replaced with wind?
Do you think it is at least possible that someone in the Russian government planted the story just as a friendly... reminder? _________________ “It does not do to leave a live dragon out of your calculations, if you live near him.”
Joined: Feb 20, 2005 Posts: 2880 Location: Uppsala, Sweden
Posted: Sun Aug 31, 2008 4:27 pm Post subject: Re: RUSSIA PREPARES TO CUT OIL TO WEST WITHIN DAYS. !!!!!
wisconsin_cur wrote:
Perhaps you are right... I thought many other nations already had long-term contracts and would then be insulated a bit.
The French and Germans and some other generally have this. The foolish Brits who belive in spot markets and until recently were gas exporters - don't. I believe most of the ruckus about Russian gas exports during the last few years has much to do with this.
wisconsin_cur wrote:
I would also say that relations between the west and russia are already... "strained."
Well they were more strained back in 1983 during the coldest part of the cold war, and the Russians never even whispered about cutting supplies then. They won't do it now either because they really want the money gas sales bring in.
wisconsin_cur wrote:
Where would that European gas come from? Could LNG be geared up that fast? Could it be replaced with wind?
Only 25 % of all EU gas is from Russia. It is used mainly in three sectors: power, heating and industry. It can without problems be eliminated from the two first sectors and substituted with altenatives. Much can also be done in the third sector. This would cut gas demand by a lot more than 25 %.
wisconsin_cur wrote:
Do you think it is at least possible that someone in the Russian government planted the story just as a friendly... reminder?
No, the story is too stupid. If someone wanted to create worries they would talk about gas, not oil.
PS. There is always the posibility that the Russians actually will cut some oil supplies to Europe to create a conflict and stir up domestic feelings. They've done this at times against the Czechs and Estonians. In reality it doesn't mean anything as the Russians sell the oil via other channels unto the world market and the "embargoed" oil customers instead buy oil from the very same world market. So while it has no real effect, it can send a political message along the lines of: Russia angry, ooga-booga! _________________ Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
Joined: Dec 07, 2005 Posts: 1983 Location: Australia
Posted: Sun Aug 31, 2008 5:50 pm Post subject: Re: RUSSIA PREPARES TO CUT OIL TO WEST WITHIN DAYS. !!!!!
Starvid wrote:
Wikipedia wrote:
Fungibility is the property of a good or a commodity whose individual units are capable of mutual substitution. Examples of highly fungible commodities are crude oil, electricity, precious metals, and many currencies.
Let's say Russia reduce oil supplies to Europe and instead send the oil somewhere else... like China. Say X mbpd. Now suddenly China ends up with X mbpd more than they need so they cancel a contract of X mbpd with... Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia now has a surplus of X mbpd and needs a new buyer... hey, Europe lacks X mbdp, let's sell to them! That's what fungible means.
Of course in the real world it's a bit more complicated because of different oil grades and different refineries, but that doens't really change the big picture much.
If the rumor monger understood anything about energy he would have said that gas, not oil, supplies would have been cut (not that would make the slightest lick of sense from the Russian perspective, but anyway) because gas is not a fungible commodity traded on the world market but rather a regional commodity generally tied to pipelines.
That only works as long as total demand doesn't outstrip total supply. In this I include scenarios whereby nations would rather withhold oil from market and scenarios where supply isn't sufficient to meet demand from west as well as emerging markets (read China) and they prioritise supply to the emerging markets. _________________ It's not a bailout, it's a buy-in" - Nancy Pelosi
Joined: Aug 03, 2007 Posts: 4388 Location: Boston Suburbs
Posted: Sun Aug 31, 2008 6:02 pm Post subject: Re: RUSSIA PREPARES TO CUT OIL TO WEST WITHIN DAYS. !!!!!
jbrovont wrote:
Russia is a safe enemy.
Maybe Russia should try not to make it so easy to view them as the enemy. Same deal with Venezuela, Iran, etc... _________________ As long as I am around, there are no worries we have reached "Peak Words"
Joined: Dec 02, 2007 Posts: 177 Location: Winnipeg, MB, Canada
Posted: Wed Sep 03, 2008 11:49 pm Post subject: Re: RUSSIA PREPARES TO CUT OIL TO WEST WITHIN DAYS. !!!!!
dissident wrote:
Hysterical war propaganda from a neocon rag. "We have a source", "somebody said", it doesn't take much to get the western masses all riled up. Time to not believe everything you read in the "free media".
Damn you outed me! I was hoping to cash in on my oil stocks!
Posted: Thu Sep 04, 2008 12:10 am Post subject: Re: RUSSIA PREPARES TO CUT OIL TO WEST WITHIN DAYS. !!!!!
Starvid wrote:
Let's say Russia reduce oil supplies to Europe and instead send the oil somewhere else... like China. Say X mbpd.
Now suddenly China ends up with X mbpd more than they need so they cancel a contract of X mbpd with... Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia now has a surplus of X mbpd and needs a new buyer... hey, Europe lacks X mbdp, let's sell to them!
That's what fungible means.
Of course in the real world it's a bit more complicated because of different oil grades and different refineries, but that doens't really change the big picture much.
If the rumor monger understood anything about energy he would have said that gas, not oil, supplies would have been cut (not that would make the slightest lick of sense from the Russian perspective, but anyway) because gas is not a fungible commodity traded on the world market but rather a regional commodity generally tied to pipelines.
Ok except you forgot one thing, there is existing infrastructure to accommodate oil from Russia. How do you know that the infrastructure for an increased capacity of saudia arabian oil is in place?
How would it get to Europe? Cutting russian oil out would cause problems, they cant get the oil overnight from a new supply, I would bet on at least months if not a full year or more. I dont know for sure because I know nothing about their import and refining system, but it sure doesnt seem like a non issue. _________________ Tired of high gas prices? Then stop driving to work, duh..... Learn to Work from home
You cannot post new topics in this forum You cannot reply to topics in this forum You cannot edit your posts in this forum You cannot delete your posts in this forum You cannot vote in polls in this forum
News
Discussions
Resources
Members
Forum FAQ
Search
Usergroups
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
Then stop driving to work, duh..... 
