Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Posted: Sat Mar 19, 2005 8:25 pm Post subject: Lucifer's Hammer
I read through the consolidated plans thread.
I hate to piss on anyone's cheerios but IMO, it really doesn't matter what you do or how you prepare because only the strong and brutal will survive.
The famous science fiction book Lucifer's Hammer gives a realistic 'the day after' doomsday scenario of a comet hitting the earth. Those with the guns were able to take what they wanted. There was a community formed that built a fortress to protect their food and shelter, but they would only let in people that could contribute to the community, such as, doctors or scientists.
My point is that no mater how much you prepare, you have to be ready to kill in order to protect your fortress. Because when people have hungry and thisty children, they will resort to any means necessary to provide for their young.
Also keep in mind that the government can conficate your supplies and land.
Comments please. I will take any bone you want to throw me.
In a very worst case scenario, that is how it could play out. That the worst case is absolutely inevitable is debatable. It could bring out the best in many people too. As far as complete intolerance goes, I can forsee people having zero tolerance for any kind of naval gazing, self absorbed, neurotic mind sets. Anything not somehow geared to survival will be pretty much dispensed with.
The challenge is...how to accomplish and supply this fortress. 640 acres is only one square mile - and a single Barret .50 could reach from the perimeter to the center. Or vice-versa, of course. But the point is that small amounts of defended territory tend to become a killing pen for the defenders. Guarding the perimeter is a challenge. Just having the discipline to do so is a challenge.
One must also wonder whether the inhabitants of the fortress are prepared to kill all of the countless supplicants that will come. What will they do with the young mother and her infant? Take them in? Ahh, but what if the young mother is a spy? And, if not a spy - will not the new population eventually overwhelm the capacity of the fort to supply them?
Your scenario is certainly possible - indeed, it's a staple of the hard crash. But the preparation required - both in terms of logistics and personal training - is nontrivial. _________________ Dieoff. Fun to watch. Better with hot buttered popcorn!
Joined: Aug 18, 2004 Posts: 694 Location: SF Bay Area, Calif
Posted: Sat Mar 19, 2005 9:49 pm Post subject:
Most of the people in the world, most of the people in the past lived on a fraction of the energy and resources as those in the industrialized West. So all of a sudden, when gas goes to $5/gallon, we're going to turn into maniacs?
Why do these survivalist fantasies keep coming out of the woodwork?
Here is what they have in common:
1. Nightmare scenarios, based on sources such as "Mad Max" (B movie) and "Lucifer's Hammer" (science fiction). At the same time, a lack of any background in real survival situations, as have been documented by the military or those who have survived extreme situations.
3. Obsession with guns coupled with a lack of knowledge about any of the specifics of survival technology, such as farming, crafts or medicine.
4. Inability to conceive of co-operative action, via community or government. Nevermind that humans have been working in groups for 100,000 years.
5. Inability to listen or reason. Instead, an obsessive repetition of nightmares - distrust - guns.
If you are serious about survivial, pass these fantasies by. They sap your energy and encourage hysteria.
Do you really think this is my fantasy? I have no desire for such a lifestyle. I am a mother of 2 young kids. I do not have testerone, not much of anyway.
In my viewpoint, it's not just gas prices that will be affected.
But if it is the end of cheap oil then there will be panic and the economy will collapse and it will be a vicious negative feedback. As if the economy even needs expensive oil in order to collapse. I am also highly suspicious of the motives of our government.
If it were just high gas prices then I would just get a 2nd job.
If you think this is not a possible scenario, fine. But for grins, just try to answer my questions. Amuse me. I want to read your thougths.
Bart, The survivalist scenarios are as fair as the more benevolent ones. They're just scenarios, just maybes.
In Canada we came a whisker away from a Bolshevik style revolution, during the thirties. We were scared socialist, after the depression, as a direct result. There were vicious riots, people killed, others starved to death. It was likely worse here than in the US. We didn't have the same programs in place. An energy induced chronic depression could be even uglier, in the US, than the depression, as the ability to fund social programs this time, may not be an option.
Joined: May 24, 2004 Posts: 3429 Location: California, USA
Posted: Sat Mar 19, 2005 11:09 pm Post subject:
Do not neglect the fact that a major subtext of Lucifer's Hammer was: Aryans good, Blacks bad. And at the end, mustard gas good. The subtle racism in that book was almost overt, and it surprises me that anyone would have missed it.
I would have far preferred it if the crew at the nuclear plant looked more like America and less like the Aryan Nation, the bias in the way that part was written probably didn't help the case for fission any.
Do not buy into fascist ideologies. Communism is only recently dead so we all remember its evils vividly. Fascism is longer dead, and therefore easier to slip into.
EnemyCombatant, recognize that your reactions right now are based primarily on fear, which in turn compromises your objectivity. No one disputes the need for self-defense under attack, but the fact remains that combat scenarios are far less likely than the daily grind of economics.
In that realm, civilized competition and cooperation are your best bet. Cooperation to consolidate and stabilize, competition to encourage innovation and efficiency. The path to take is to start building practical alliances now, wherever you are, with whoever can participate responsibly.
Do not be tempted by the allure of "taking," instead concentrate on the potential for *trading.* Encourage any form of localized market economics, and participate in it. The choice between civilization and barbarianism is one we can each make every day with our every act.
Very interesting piece of Canadian history there, I never knew about that. Thank God y'all never became bolshevik, that would have been a nightmare of large magnitude, after which we might all be pledging our allegiance to the Stalinist States of North America.
However, speaking of science fiction, an alternate history where Canada went socialist and either a) teamed up with the USSR or b) went for benign socialism as in Sweden, would be interesting to write or read (or both!).
The scenario I would have written was: Canada goes for benign socialism, which spreads throughout the British Commonwealth, which in turn teams up against the USSR on the basis that the latter is actually fascism in disguise. The USA stays vigorously free-market capitalist. Russia descends into chaos.
Then the major axis of global competition is between the moderate socialist UK, vs. the capitalist USA and a couple of allies, the democratized Germany and Japan among others. Since these two major blocs are not locked into an arms race with the potential for another world war, they can compete on the basis of constructive development of their respective client states. Africa and the Middle East end up becoming shining examples of modernity, each with its share of socialist and capitalist nations.
The key question is, how does all of this influence the course of events in Russia and China. Many interesting stories to be spun from that point. Stories of business and finance, of engineering and infrastructure, of spy-vs-spy and the potentials for localized conflicts, and of the diplomatic maneuvers of the great powers and the daily lives of people in their home countries and client states. There's enough here for a series of novels, or perhaps a series of vignettes and scenarios on some BBS.
Joined: Aug 18, 2004 Posts: 694 Location: SF Bay Area, Calif
Posted: Sun Mar 20, 2005 2:42 am Post subject:
Enemycombatant, your post is the classic survivalist statement.
Enemycombatant wrote:
it really doesn't matter what you do or how you prepare because only the strong and brutal will survive.
That's not a strategy; that's a panic reaction.
Most of us have had similar thoughts. Peak oil will bring changes for which we don't feel prepared. Bloody images come to mind from the bad movies we've seen. We won't be taken by surprise, we say to ourselves, we'll be strong and ruthless, with plenty of firepower. Shoot first and ask questions later.
DUMB!
It's an understandable reaction, but really dumb.
For one thing, reading "Lucifer's Hammer" to prepare for Peak Oil, is like watching "Deliverance" to prepare for a canoe trip. Or studying the pornography of the Marquis de Sade to get ready for marriage.
Is this the way you solve problems in your profession or specialty? Do you read comic books to envision the future? Then base your plans on the worst nightmares you can imagine?
Of course not. As adults, we've developed our own unique problem solving-strategies that work for us.
So, here's another problem: Peak Oil. Let's use the same strategies on it that we use in the rest of our lives: connect, investigate, be prudent, act.
1. Strengthen ties with people and groups whom we trust, especially those that are local. Family, church, people at work, neighbors, community groups.
2. Find sources of information we trust. Ask questions. Compare the different stories. Unplug the TV and read. The web is a good place to begin, but one has to go to books for depth. Classes and volunteer work help make the face-to-face connection.
3. Get our financial houses in order. Be "prudent" as our ancestors were, by avoiding debt, keeping expenses low, being careful in spending money. Don't be in a hurry to make drastic changes to your life, such as moving to a different country.
4. Gradually shift to meeting your needs locally, by yourself, your family, your community. Gardening, health care and do-it-yourself are all good. If you want to do guns, then approach them professionally by taking courses; don't fixate on them as THE answer. The survivalist (and Mormon) idea of accumulating a food store isn't a bad idea, especially if it makes you feel more secure.
The main thing is to do something productive to improve your position -- don't dwell on nightmares.
And, believe it or not, a lot of the activities to prepare for Peak Oil are fun: good physical work, learning skills, spending time with with other people. It's real.
Joined: Aug 18, 2004 Posts: 694 Location: SF Bay Area, Calif
Posted: Sun Mar 20, 2005 4:31 am Post subject:
Chocky wrote:
Don't you think defence is one of the needs that should be met locally? It's no different to the others you mentioned.
Security, yes. Learn about it, plan realistically and get training if necessary. Recognize that being obsessed with nightmare scenarios is counter-productive to survival.
Joined: May 24, 2004 Posts: 3429 Location: California, USA
Posted: Sun Mar 20, 2005 7:16 am Post subject:
Ditto.
And don't forget, good intel is critical to good defense. And good intel also requires objective analysis, i.e. if you're in a state of fear or panic, you'll miss by a mile.
Your best HUMINT source (human intel) is the nearest community market. Learn how to pick up information from the background chatter, ask questions to get specific details in the answers (without seeming snoopy), remember (or quickly write down) what you hear, and look it over later with a clear mind. Ideal case is you have a group of two or three people engaged in analyzing this stuff.
SIGINT (signals intel) tends to be more labor intensive because you have to be listening 24/7. Also requires geek skills. I've posted enough about this topic elsewhere.
In any case, overt threats aren't your only security concern.
Economic intelligence is critical: what's available, what's in shortage, what are the price & supply trends, who has what, who's interested in trading what for what, and what products / services / skills are going to benefit from increasing short-term demand. If you're rural, information about circumstances affecting others' agricultural output will help you anticipate similar circumstances in your own farm/garden. Information about who has what kinds of resources will help you direct your trading emphasis.
Information turned into knowledge, is capability. Capability is strength.
Joined: Mar 18, 2005 Posts: 2691 Location: Minnesota
Posted: Sun Mar 20, 2005 8:05 am Post subject: Panic / Violence
There will be panic...There will be violence (much like L.A. after the rodney king police trial). Your job is to SURVIVE IT! Flee if you can, fight if you must, but survive!!! Because the violence to will end, then comes the organization & rebuilding...now THAT'S going to be the hard part!!!
I find myself agreeing with you EnemyCombatant, but strong and brutal now may only be a necessary thing then. Two sides of one coin, extreme sides, are grab the SKS and the MREs-head for hills-shoot anybody that looks at you wrong, and the lily sniffing-fluffy bunny hugging-lets all live in a commune and grow organic food-every man is my brother. Two extreme sides, neither will work, you have to have social contacts that you can buy-sell-trade-barter for items-food-services that you can't produce yourself. On the other hand if a man kicks open your front door you have two choices, you can let him rape you, kill your childern, steal all your food or you can grab the 12gauge and blow his worthless ass right back out onto the front porch. Are you being strong? Yes. Are you being brutal? Not at all. You do what you have to do. The only thing that matters is the survival of you and yours. Things seem to be going to crap in a hurry, but you still have time, time to expand your social contacts, time to learn about gardening, time to learn about home and self defense, time to learn crafts or a trade. But the clock is ticking. Good luck.
Joined: Apr 03, 2004 Posts: 7021 Location: My Grandkids' Farm
Posted: Sun Mar 20, 2005 8:34 am Post subject:
I don’t have any bones; you know what they say about opinions. In fact, I see no difference in protecting oneself today and in the apocalyptic vision of the Ghost of PO Future. If you think you should have a weapon for protection in the future, I assume you have one today. crap hits the fan in individuals lives everyday.
But I do like the part about the government taking supplies and land but not guns.
Then what?
Do they give the farms to the strong and brutal as a reward for killing off the farmers?
“For one thing, reading "Lucifer's Hammer" to prepare for Peak Oil, is like watching "Deliverance" to prepare for a canoe trip.”
Great Line Bart! _________________ Make a plan and work it:
Bart, I didn't read lucifer's hammer to prepare for peak oil. I read it over a decade ago. I am a self-employed indivdual who is quite successful. I can't be too dumb if I have come to realize that peak oil is a reality. Give me a break.
You see, name calling and being condenscending only creates negativity. If you think my scenario is not reasonable, then so be it. You can just say that and move on without ranting and raving.
Your attitude is very unappealing. There is enough of that in the world already.
I realize there are many scenarios for the outcome of peak oil, more than we can imagine. I am very analytical. I have prepared for the best case and more likely cases as mentioned on this board. But I also want to know about the worst case scenario.
Chill out and let's all try to be good to each other.
Edited:
Now I get it, your role model is Bart Simpson and that's why you interact in the manner that you do. Like an 8 year old. I guess that's what that ignore icon is for.
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