I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Joined: Jul 04, 2008 Posts: 233 Location: Europe: European Historian
Posted: Mon Sep 01, 2008 7:51 am Post subject: Port Fourchon & the LOOP -Aftermath..what to expect now?
It appears that the LOOP and Port Fourchon took a major if not direct hit from Gustav at a CAT 3 size. Not only that Gustav spent some extra time in these places....
Lets talk about the possible consequence and the aftermath of this monsters destruction.
Port Fourchon is a small community on the southern tip of Lafourche Parish, Louisiana, on the Gulf of Mexico. It is a sea port, with significant petroleum industry traffic from off shore Gulf oil platforms and drilling rigs as well as the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port pipeline coming through it. There are over 600 oil platforms within a 40-mile radius of Port Fourchon. This area makes up 16 to 18 percent of the US oil supply.
History and hurricanes
Port Fourchon was damaged by Hurricane Lili in October of 2002.[citation needed] It did not take a direct hit by Hurricane Katrina in 2005, and was only slightly damaged.[1]
As of mid-2008, $350 million from state bonds and federal assistance had been budgeted to begin replacing a 17-mile (27-km) stretch of LA-1, the road into Port Fourchon, because that part of the highway is not inside the hurricane levee system that protects inland communities. The replacement will be an elevated highway that can stand up to a major storm and remain open even if the land around it floods. A seven-mile (11-km) section of the project, including a higher bridge across Bayou Lafourche, is under construction and scheduled for completion in 2011. Funds have not been found for replacing the northern ten miles of the road.[1]
Any damage reports?
TOD damage estimates to the LOOP _________________ If you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face--for ever."
-George Orwell, 1984
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Mon Sep 01, 2008 9:07 am Post subject: Re: Port Fourchon & the LOOP -Aftermath..what to expect
Quote:
Forecaster: Louisiana Offshore Port May Have Taken Direct Hit
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
September 1, 2008 10:53 a.m.
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)-- Hurricane Gustav may have directly hit the key Louisiana Offshore Oil Port terminal, but likely won't do the same to New Orleans, said Jim Rouiller, senior energy meteorologist with Planalytics Monday.
"I think Gustav has probably hit several major deepwater oil and gas production platforms over the last 12 hours," he added in an update forecast.
It's too soon to gauge any damage to the LOOP. A spokesman said the facility will wait until the storm passes to go out to the port to assess damage, potentially later Monday or Tuesday.
"Keep in mind this update still places New Orleans within the most dangerous right front quad of Gustav... I still expect a storm surge of 8-14 feet, hurricane force winds of 70-90 mph with some higher gusts, 8-14 inches of rain and tornadoes. Severe flooding is likely," Rouiller said.
WSJ _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Joined: Aug 03, 2006 Posts: 4331 Location: Graceland
Posted: Mon Sep 01, 2008 9:16 am Post subject: Re: Port Fourchon & the LOOP -Aftermath..what to expect
Over at TOD they are talking about perhaps 3% of current GOM production being gone forever, since older damaged platforms cannot be rebuilt/repaired at a profit. (same thing happened post-Katrina)
It's interesting to think about this idea that each big storm shaves a small but permanent percentage off of current GOM production capacity.
Yet another danger in relying upon aging wells. _________________
Posted: Mon Sep 01, 2008 9:56 am Post subject: Re: Port Fourchon & the LOOP -Aftermath..what to expect
At 11:30 am, Sept 1, 2008, Bloomberg reports the commodities market as:
Brent Crude 110.05, down 4.00
ICE 998.25, down 39.50
WTI Crude 110.78, down 4.68
Gustav is now a category 2 storm.
So who or what is doing all the "hype"? If this is a major disaster why is oil and gas dropping in price? Gustav has been a cat 2 storm for the last 12 hours, way before coming ashore. If production is going to drop 3% shouldn't the price be going up?
Joined: Apr 06, 2006 Posts: 3618 Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
Posted: Mon Sep 01, 2008 9:57 am Post subject: Re: Port Fourchon & the LOOP -Aftermath..what to expect
I noticed an especially strong NE arm of Gustav on the radar, that covered the area Thunderhorse is in. This was when he was slowing down a bit, about 10 hours ago. _________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
The Dude Is Not In: Leave A Message After The Beep.
Posted: Mon Sep 01, 2008 10:21 am Post subject: Re: Port Fourchon & the LOOP -Aftermath..what to expect
Yeah, Chuck Watson says between imports and production shortfalls, 40% of GOM oil will be offline for 30 days and ~30% of GOM NG for will be offline for 30 days with marginal improvements after that.
LOOP out for 14 days or so, refineries back online after a couple of weeks.
Joined: Apr 06, 2006 Posts: 3618 Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
Posted: Mon Sep 01, 2008 10:36 am Post subject: Re: Port Fourchon & the LOOP -Aftermath..what to expect
Hey ya Prof. That Edward G Robinson in your avatar? "You hick, I'll be back pulling strings to get guys elected mayor and governor before you get a ten buck raise. " Key Largo, all-time greatest hurricane movie.
Katrina hardly damaged the LOOP, it was back in action once the power was returned. No two storms are the like of course, we'll have to wait and see. I'm checking Google News on LOOP updates from time to time.
Posted: Mon Sep 01, 2008 11:28 am Post subject: Re: Port Fourchon & the LOOP -Aftermath..what to expect
On Friday many traders bought oil thinking Gustav was coming ashore as a CAT 5. Things have changed a lot and these players are trying to exit their position in a thinly traded market due to labor day. There is an excess of paper oil on the market,today but a shortage of liquid oil in the coming months.
Dont forget that many traders still think oil should be below $100, so any price today is still too expensive for them to stay buying while the price appears to be falling.
"Dont catch a falling knife by the blade, wait for the handle" or something like that.
Joined: Apr 13, 2005 Posts: 3149 Location: St.Louis, Mo
Posted: Mon Sep 01, 2008 11:37 am Post subject: Re: Port Fourchon & the LOOP -Aftermath..what to expect
profgoose wrote:
Yeah, Chuck Watson says between imports and production shortfalls, 40% of GOM oil will be offline for 30 days and ~30% of GOM NG for will be offline for 30 days with marginal improvements after that.
LOOP out for 14 days or so, refineries back online after a couple of weeks.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Mon Sep 01, 2008 12:14 pm Post subject: Re: Port Fourchon & the LOOP -Aftermath..what to expect
bkwillia wrote:
On Friday many traders bought oil thinking Gustav was coming ashore as a CAT 5. Things have changed a lot and these players are trying to exit their position in a thinly traded market due to labor day. There is an excess of paper oil on the market,today but a shortage of liquid oil in the coming months.
Dont forget that many traders still think oil should be below $100, so any price today is still too expensive for them to stay buying while the price appears to be falling.
"Dont catch a falling knife by the blade, wait for the handle" or something like that.
I didn't see any oil trader reports stating they saw a CAT 5 hurricane.
So far the IEA and IEA say the world is using oil in 2008 faster than it is being produced, with the excess demand being met by inventory drawdowns. I already posted reports that OPEC cut its output during late August and early Spetember.
Edit: deleted erroneous comment _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Last edited by DantesPeak on Mon Sep 01, 2008 3:43 pm; edited 1 time in total
Posted: Mon Sep 01, 2008 12:47 pm Post subject: Re: Port Fourchon & the LOOP -Aftermath..what to expect
Shortonoil has elsewhere claimed that traders are reacting to a larger economic collapse going on around the world. The much-anticipated demand destruction is starting to kick in with a vengeance. Personally, short term trading almost always looks totally irrational to me. One reason I don't do it.
Increased storms or storm intensity is likely to hasten the downward spiral in EROEI for oil. Some drilling will not be restarted and others will be restarted with ever greater expense.
Arm wrote, "If the storm stalls , which is very possible, flooding could change this."
Possible but looking less probable in the immediate vicinity any way. It is slowing, but still going about 14mph, so by tomorrow morning it should be a few hundred miles away. We shall see.
What is the likelihood that the interruptions at the LOOP will cause the flow to the East Coast to fall below the MOL?
Last edited by dohboi on Mon Sep 01, 2008 12:52 pm; edited 1 time in total
Joined: Apr 05, 2005 Posts: 2577 Location: South of Atlanta
Posted: Mon Sep 01, 2008 12:50 pm Post subject: Re: Port Fourchon & the LOOP -Aftermath..what to expect
Just like Katrina your seeing little about where the real story is at the moment. Be patient, give them some time to go tomorrow and the next day to get a look at the damage.
Jim Cantore was in a cement walled structure in Houma and they had the roof fly off and walls collapse. Grand Isle was/is underwater as of this am . The center of the storm went over the LOOP with 110mph winds + gust, at least a 12 foot surge and probably 30 foot seas measured by bouys. Katrina missed that.
Houma saw the eye of a CAT 2 and along with Port Fourchon in the northern eyewall also. These areas are the jumping off points for the whole Gulf drilling industry. Hopefully the refineries fare better due to the lesser nature of the storm.
I'd bet you see some pretty decent damage down there when crews show up along with some very significant local flooding. We can all be happy this wasn't a CAT 4 at landfall.
Joined: Apr 06, 2006 Posts: 3618 Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
Posted: Mon Sep 01, 2008 1:01 pm Post subject: Re: Port Fourchon & the LOOP -Aftermath..what to expect
Terrebonne/St Mary's/St Martin's/Iberia parishes are chock full of rig/pipe fab plants, terminals, helicopter hubs, a shipyard, directly in Gustav's path. This is all laid out on the MMS GOM infrastructure map: VERY big .pdf _________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
The Dude Is Not In: Leave A Message After The Beep.
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Key Largo, all-time greatest hurricane movie.
