I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Joined: Mar 04, 2005 Posts: 2730 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Sun Aug 31, 2008 8:22 pm Post subject: What Happened to Peak Oil?
What Happened to Peak Oil?
Quote:
Now, the real point of peak oil here is not that oil supplies are running out, the sky is falling and the world is coming to an end. Rather, it is an understanding that there will come a time when the ever-increasing global demand for oil will permanently outstrip the supply. What does that mean? Well for starters, it means that oil shocks will not be the result of supplies being artificially constrained by some monopoly like the Seven Sisters, the Texas Railroad Commission or OPEC. Peak oil means that oil producers will simply not be able to cost-effectively pump enough oil out of the ground rapidly enough to meet the rising oil demand.
There are two things that can stop this train wreck:
Interesting comments at end too. _________________ Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.
Joined: Apr 05, 2005 Posts: 1648 Location: Springsteen Country (NJ)
Posted: Sun Aug 31, 2008 8:36 pm Post subject: Re: What Happened to Peak Oil?
Graeme wrote:
What Happened to Peak Oil?
Quote:
Now, the real point of peak oil here is not that oil supplies are running out, the sky is falling and the world is coming to an end. Rather, it is an understanding that there will come a time when the ever-increasing global demand for oil will permanently outstrip the supply.
I hope one of the comments pointed out that peak oil isn't demand outstripping supply at all, but when oil extraction starts to inevitably decline. "Demand outstripping supply" is just a symptom of peak oil, not the cause. This guy seems to think that the supply will forever increase, just not fast enough for demand. He's in for a real shock when the oil extraction rate starts to decline. _________________ Joe P. United Political Debate
"Only when the last tree is cut; only when the last river is polluted; only when the last fish is caught; only then will they realize that you cannot eat money." - Cree Indian Proverb
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Sun Aug 31, 2008 9:02 pm Post subject: Re: What Happened to Peak Oil?
joewp is right, there is still some lack of understanding but the author otherwise is mostly on the right track.
What annoys me is that people like the author keep saying the fall from $147 oil to $110 represents something important. No it doesn't. Short term swings of up to 30% in the price of oil don't represent much of anything. I've been saying that for at least two years here.
So China did some extra pre-Olymipic buying and SemGroup was short 100 million barrels and had to cover when China called for their oil deliveries (to over-simplify). Yes these things are happening because we are at or near peak oil, but who said market swings were going to go away? _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Joined: Mar 04, 2005 Posts: 2730 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Sun Aug 31, 2008 9:04 pm Post subject: Re: What Happened to Peak Oil?
Joewp, Thanks for pointing out that peak oil is not one-dimensional. However, there will be a host of other unpredictable factors besides supply and demand that will affect our collective fate. _________________ Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.
Joined: May 06, 2006 Posts: 873 Location: Tustin, CA
Posted: Sun Aug 31, 2008 9:35 pm Post subject: Re: What Happened to Peak Oil?
Who the hell is Edward Harrison? Is he a petro-geologist or an engineer? What are his qualifications to comment on the subject? _________________ Skeptical scrutiny in both Science and Religion is the means by which deep thoughts are winnowed from deep nonsense-Carl Sagan
Posted: Sun Aug 31, 2008 11:32 pm Post subject: Re: What Happened to Peak Oil?
DantesPeak wrote:
joewp is right, there is still some lack of understanding but the author otherwise is mostly on the right track.
What annoys me is that people like the author keep saying the fall from $147 oil to $110 represents something important. No it doesn't. Short term swings of up to 30% in the price of oil don't represent much of anything. I've been saying that for at least two years here.
So China did some extra pre-Olymipic buying and SemGroup was short 100 million barrels and had to cover when China called for their oil deliveries (to over-simplify). Yes these things are happening because we are at or near peak oil, but who said market swings were going to away?
That was an unprecedented rise and fall, the dynamics of which are crucial to the understanding of the energy markets. I would hardly dismiss it as insignificant.
Posted: Mon Sep 01, 2008 6:36 am Post subject: Re: What Happened to Peak Oil?
GATA has it right, the gold market is manipulated.
The "plunge protection team" is charged with "stabilizing" the equity markets.
The FED and the Treasury have long coordinated action with other central banks in the currency markets.
At critical times all markets are subject to manipulation, but only in the short term. Do you imagine the oil market is different?
How high does oil have to go to shut off demand? Well, now they know.
Resources are responsible for our current civilization. The most important is oil. And now it's supply is constrained. Water too. Another post touts Brazil as the worlds new bread basket, able to support more and more billions of people. Simply not so.
Even us PO's can't quite imagine our whole world turned upside down due to resource scarcity. EVERYTHING is changing but our hubris and denial will keep the new great game going who knows how long.
Those few of us who see what's coming can do ought to alter our course, the lessons learned must be learned by all, not just the few. _________________ Who is John Galt?
Posted: Mon Sep 01, 2008 9:43 am Post subject: Re: What Happened to Peak Oil?
So, when will Peak Oil arrive? Most experts put it between 2030 and 2040 somewhere, but in a scenario that doesn't take into account the rapid transition to renewables.
Does anyone have a study showing how the mass transition towards far more efficient electric vehicles running on non-oil generated electricity, will push the Peak Oil date back? _________________ The Beginning is Near!
Joined: Apr 08, 2007 Posts: 488 Location: Cleburne, TX, USA
Posted: Mon Sep 01, 2008 9:48 am Post subject: Re: What Happened to Peak Oil?
lorenzo wrote:
So, when will Peak Oil arrive? Most experts put it between 2030 and 2040 somewhere, but in a scenario that doesn't take into account the rapid transition to renewables.
Does anyone have a study showing how the mass transition towards far more efficient electric vehicles running on non-oil generated electricity, will push the Peak Oil date back?
Good question. Because I'm beginning to think the "experts" are correct and PO won't happen until around 2036. And, since I've determined that, with any luck, that should be my last year on this planet, I should just continue partying like it's 1999 and stop wasting my time worrying about it now. _________________ My new Peak Oil T-Shirt Design
Joined: Dec 27, 2004 Posts: 13065 Location: naive idiot fantasy world
Posted: Mon Sep 01, 2008 9:59 am Post subject: Re: What Happened to Peak Oil?
PeakingAroundtheCorner wrote:
I should just continue partying like it's 1999 and stop wasting my time worrying about it now.
Worrying about it won't change reality in any case.
Party on! _________________ "...powerdown so soft and fluffy you'll think you're living in a pillow." - jboogy
Joined: Jan 16, 2005 Posts: 320 Location: Delft, Netherlands
Posted: Mon Sep 01, 2008 11:01 am Post subject: Re: What Happened to Peak Oil?
PeakingAroundtheCorner wrote:
Good question. Because I'm beginning to think the "experts" are correct and PO won't happen until around 2036. And, since I've determined that, with any luck, that should be my last year on this planet, I should just continue partying like it's 1999 and stop wasting my time worrying about it now.
I agree. We should'nt jump the gun and think that we are the generation that has to clean up this mess. Most probably it will be the next one! It's a real load of my back. For a minute there I thought I had to get off my couch, when all the while the fact is we don't have to do anything much but keep things afloat for just a few decades more! In fact, we'd best shut up about PO, because if our offspring finds out we knew about it all along, they'll turn and wring our necks come 2036!
Posted: Mon Sep 01, 2008 11:55 am Post subject: Re: What Happened to Peak Oil?
Nano wrote:
PeakingAroundtheCorner wrote:
Good question. Because I'm beginning to think the "experts" are correct and PO won't happen until around 2036. And, since I've determined that, with any luck, that should be my last year on this planet, I should just continue partying like it's 1999 and stop wasting my time worrying about it now.
I agree. We should'nt jump the gun and think that we are the generation that has to clean up this mess. Most probably it will be the next one! It's a real load of my back. For a minute there I thought I had to get off my couch, when all the while the fact is we don't have to do anything much but keep things afloat for just a few decades more! In fact, we'd best shut up about PO, because if our offspring finds out we knew about it all along, they'll turn and wring our necks come 2036!
I'm going to go ahead and nominate this post for the Peak Oil Hall of Fame. Please, put this one in the Member Quotes thing on the left side of the page!
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Mon Sep 01, 2008 12:03 pm Post subject: Re: What Happened to Peak Oil?
threadbear wrote:
DantesPeak wrote:
joewp is right, there is still some lack of understanding but the author otherwise is mostly on the right track.
What annoys me is that people like the author keep saying the fall from $147 oil to $110 represents something important. No it doesn't. Short term swings of up to 30% in the price of oil don't represent much of anything. I've been saying that for at least two years here.
So China did some extra pre-Olymipic buying and SemGroup was short 100 million barrels and had to cover when China called for their oil deliveries (to over-simplify). Yes these things are happening because we are at or near peak oil, but who said market swings were going to away?
That was an unprecedented rise and fall, the dynamics of which are crucial to the understanding of the energy markets. I would hardly dismiss it as insignificant.
The oil market dropped 30% four times in the last four years. Did every time before mean the end of PO?
Also I didn't say it was insignificant. _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Posted: Mon Sep 01, 2008 12:11 pm Post subject: Re: What Happened to Peak Oil?
Quote:
So, when will Peak Oil arrive? Most experts put it between 2030 and 2040 somewhere, but in a scenario that doesn't take into account the rapid transition to renewables.
What experts? Most competent experts like Colin Campbell or Jean Laherrere and the ASPO believe it has already happened. _________________ "Life is merely an orderly decay of energy states, and survival requires the continual discovery of new energy to pump into the system. He who controls the sources of energy controls the means of survival. "
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