We are entering the stage where ideology and education about sustainability and living within carrying capacity will be augmented by the reality of identifiable consequences of our overshoot. External consequences like the peaking and decline of below ground energy and commodity resources, above ground environmental degradation of our climate, soils, fisheries and climate will have a profound effect on our culture.
2009 is the year when we start to feel it.
The Official Reported Unemployment figure is now over 6%, up .4% from last month. As we all know, this figure grossly underestimates the figure by not counting those who have given up even looking for work and those who are under-employed. However, if it keeps up (as it likely will) sometime early next year we should hit the 10% mark with even this figure.
My question to the group would be at what point would the Unemployment figure begin to instigate large scale and obvious social problems? In other words, a significant increase of visible homeless people, political demonstrations and marches, perhaps some kind of Goverment program like the WPA to make work for people, etc?
Reverse Engineer
Not too sure on this one. I'm kind of a noob at this, but I'd have to say there is still some margin for things to get worse before people start rioting in the streets, especially if the BLS works its number magic and "tones down" the figures so as to discourage general panic (they're good at that, huh?).
I'd say that when "real" unemployment (which is about 12-14% right now) approaches the same level as the great depression (around 20-25%), then things will get interesting. As for a timescale, I couldn't tell ya. 2-4 years, say?
... perhaps some kind of Goverment program like the WPA to make work for people, etc? ...
We should NOT mistake FDR liberalism of the 1930's with Obama liberalism of the 21st century.
FDR liberalism = you WORK for your money
Obama liberalism = $1,000 stimulus check
I think "liberalism" originally began with good intentions.
However at some point along the way it has evolved into something TOTALLY different from it's roots.
As for what unemployment rate % would == a catastrophe?
hmm? good question. Ever since the great depression, "unemployment" has been the boogeyman that had to be avoided at all costs even if it meant inflation. That has been more or less the USA's economic policy.
5% rate is considered a problem.
10% would be considered a very severe problem.
15% would be considered a national emergency equivalent to war. --> that's when government steps in and claims "special powers" to help solve the problem.
20% = great depression
I'm pretty sure that you mean the "official" US unemployment rate. I think that I read from shadowstats that the real rate is over 10% now as of a couple weeks ago, so that is likely up to 11 or 12% now. _________________ Local fix-it guy..
LOL. How many countries do you think there are _________________ The world ends without a tragedy,Time is melting into history
The sky is falling, Voices crying out in desperation
Hear them calling, Everybody, save yourself
cube, I'm pretty sure that you mean the "official" US unemployment rate. I think that I read from shadowstats that the real rate is over 10% now as of a couple weeks ago, so that is likely up to 11 or 12% now.
thanks for the clarification. yes, I mean "official" US unemployment rate. *laughter*
Posted: Sat Sep 06, 2008 7:31 am Post subject: Re: Unemployment Tops 6%
I'd say that when "real" unemployment (which is about 12-14% right now) approaches the same level as the great depression (around 20-25%), then things will get interesting. As for a timescale, I couldn't tell ya. 2-4 years, say?[/quote]
I agree with this assessment. The American sheeples are far too inculcated into the cult of "personal responsibility" to make any kind of protest until things get really, really bad.
Posted: Sat Sep 06, 2008 8:31 am Post subject: Re: Unemployment Tops 6%
WPA, CCC - good way to catalyze a bountiful resource base in times of depression and channeling it into productive work for your countrymen.
Key words: a bountiful resource base
We don't have increasing YOY production anymore. (well, except for natgas) _________________ "It's called the American Dream because you'd have to be asleep to believe it."
Posted: Sat Sep 06, 2008 8:36 am Post subject: Re: Unemployment Tops 6%
We've see dozens of people milking their unemployment/extended unemployment benefits that aren't seriously looking for work. If they extended the benefits even more, they'd wait until they were flat broke until they got serious about finding a job or two.
I've never paid much attention to the unemployment figures since so many people aren't seriously looking for work and/or they're unqualified. (Uneducated, unmotivated, unskilled, untrainable, inexperienced, undisciplined, weak, they can't pass a background check/drug screening, no transportation, no drivers license etc)
Joined: May 18, 2006 Posts: 5177 Location: Minneapolis, MN
Posted: Sat Sep 06, 2008 9:12 am Post subject: Re: Unemployment Tops 6%
MarkJ wrote:
We've see dozens of people milking their unemployment/extended unemployment benefits that aren't seriously looking for work. If they extended the benefits even more, they'd wait until they were flat broke until they got serious about finding a job or two.
I've never paid much attention to the unemployment figures since so many people aren't seriously looking for work and/or they're unqualified. (Uneducated, unmotivated, unskilled, untrainable, inexperienced, undisciplined, weak, they can't pass a background check/drug screening, no transportation, no drivers license etc)
You really do have a attitude. What do you rent out ? Crack houses? _________________ Believe those who are seeking the truth. Doubt those who find it.
Joined: Sep 25, 2004 Posts: 4825 Location: Boston, MA
Posted: Sat Sep 06, 2008 10:51 am Post subject: Re: Unemployment Tops 6%
vision-master wrote:
MarkJ wrote:
We've see dozens of people milking their unemployment/extended unemployment benefits that aren't seriously looking for work. If they extended the benefits even more, they'd wait until they were flat broke until they got serious about finding a job or two.
I've never paid much attention to the unemployment figures since so many people aren't seriously looking for work and/or they're unqualified. (Uneducated, unmotivated, unskilled, untrainable, inexperienced, undisciplined, weak, they can't pass a background check/drug screening, no transportation, no drivers license etc)
You really do have a attitude. What do you rent out ? Crack houses?
Actually, crack dealers are highly reliable tenants. They keep to themselves and always pay their bills on time, in cash.
_________________ "www.peakoil.com is the Myspace of the Apocalypse."
Joined: Dec 18, 2004 Posts: 5374 Location: One Mile From the Columbia River
Posted: Sat Sep 06, 2008 10:59 am Post subject: Re: Unemployment Tops 6%
Tyler_JC wrote:
vision-master wrote:
MarkJ wrote:
We've see dozens of people milking their unemployment/extended unemployment benefits that aren't seriously looking for work. If they extended the benefits even more, they'd wait until they were flat broke until they got serious about finding a job or two.
I've never paid much attention to the unemployment figures since so many people aren't seriously looking for work and/or they're unqualified. (Uneducated, unmotivated, unskilled, untrainable, inexperienced, undisciplined, weak, they can't pass a background check/drug screening, no transportation, no drivers license etc)
You really do have a attitude. What do you rent out ? Crack houses?
Actually, crack dealers are highly reliable tenants. They keep to themselves and always pay their bills on time, in cash.
My experience has shown me that, although they may pay their bills on time, they are generally quite messy often requiring tens of thousands of landlord dollars to clean the house up after they have moved. _________________ Got Dharma?
Posted: Sat Sep 06, 2008 11:45 am Post subject: Re: Unemployment Tops 6%
vision-master wrote:
MarkJ wrote:
We've see dozens of people milking their unemployment/extended unemployment benefits that aren't seriously looking for work. If they extended the benefits even more, they'd wait until they were flat broke until they got serious about finding a job or two.
I've never paid much attention to the unemployment figures since so many people aren't seriously looking for work and/or they're unqualified. (Uneducated, unmotivated, unskilled, untrainable, inexperienced, undisciplined, weak, they can't pass a background check/drug screening, no transportation, no drivers license etc)
You really do have a attitude. What do you rent out ? Crack houses?
We don't have many crack houses in the Great Sacandaga, Saratoga and Lake George Adirondack Region of Upstate New York. You'll probably find some in the poor, blighted, subsidized housing sections of the Albany/Schenectady/Troy Capital Region.
Anyway, I'm not talking about tenants, (none of my tenants are currently unemployed and many have more than one job). I'm talking about people in general and those that submit job applications at our family businesses.
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