Oil's energy contribution has declined by about 12% since 1999. The world's economies have also declined by about 12%. (Using conventional metrics, which are time delayed determinations, this will only be seen in hind sight). The massive destruction of asset values now occurring testifies to it happening.
Peak is well behind us, world economies have peaked and will continue to decline.
No such luck, the Forecast is for the strongest El Nino in 10 years this December/January.
Quote:
Mr. Dilley says the PFM gravitational cycle that controls the formation of an El Nino peaks approximately every 4 years, and it will again peak during this September into January. As this occurs, the tropical South Pacific Ocean and atmospheric winds will respond rapidly and cause the formation of a moderate to strong El Nino by Christmas. This will likely be the strongest El Nino in over 10 years, and cause disruptions in weather patterns during the winter months in the Northern Hemisphere, and summer months in the Southern hemisphere.
The technology used in forecasting the upcoming El Nino is the same used for predicting the natural cycles of global warming and cooling. PFM gravitational cycles pull the atmosphere's high pressure systems northward or southward by as much as 3 or 5 degrees of latitude from their normal seasonal positions.
These cycles correspond nearly 100 percent with the last 24 moderate to strong El Nino occurrences since 1914, and with global warming cycles that recur approximate every 230 years, and mega global warming cycles that occur every 116,000 years. Additional information on the El Nino and the peer reviewed computer e-Book "Global Warming - Global Cooling, Natural Cause Found" is available at http://www.globalweathercycles.com.
David Dilley is a meteorologist and climate researcher with Global Weather Oscillations Inc. (GWO), former meteorologist with the National Weather Service, and co-host of the radio program "the Politically Incorrect Weather Guys" airing weekly on RadioEarNetwork.com, an internet streaming radio program.
_________________ Always appeal to a man's enlightened self interest, you can trust him to look out for himself honestly, It's when you appeal to his Honor or the Common Good that he stops paying attention.
Posted: Tue Sep 16, 2008 6:55 pm Post subject: Re: Record Ice Loss in Arctic 2008
The NSIDC and Cryosphere today both have different numbers they are using. The NSIDC says we have reached a mininum of 4.5 million square Km. Whereas the Cryosphere today chart says its at 3 million square km. Thats a huge difference.
Posted: Tue Sep 16, 2008 7:01 pm Post subject: Re: Record Ice Loss in Arctic 2008
Troyboy1208 wrote:
The NSIDC and Cryosphere today both have different numbers they are using. The NSIDC says we have reached a mininum of 4.5 million square Km. Whereas the Cryosphere today chart says its at 3 million square km. Thats a huge difference.
One is extent (NSIDC), the other is area (Cryosphere Today).
Joined: Apr 28, 2005 Posts: 3920 Location: West shore Lake Eire, MI, USA
Posted: Tue Sep 16, 2008 7:51 pm Post subject: Re: Record Ice Loss in Arctic 2008
sjn wrote:
Troyboy1208 wrote:
The NSIDC and Cryosphere today both have different numbers they are using. The NSIDC says we have reached a mininum of 4.5 million square Km. Whereas the Cryosphere today chart says its at 3 million square km. Thats a huge difference.
One is extent (NSIDC), the other is area (Cryosphere Today).
To clarify, extent is all the area edge to edge with at least 15% ice coverage, area is all those little packets of ice in the water added together as if they were packed together in one continuos floating mass.
This is why the Cryosphere graph is always lower than the NSIDC graph. If you are in a ship of almost any size you can easily pass through seaice of 15% or less concentration, and any substantial ship can pass through much more without worry of causing damage provided you are going slowly. To go fast or through more that 50% I would strongly urge using an icebreaker
Finland was working on some icebreaker freighters IIRC that were not needed last season due to the extreamly warm conditions in the Baltic. Seems like ships based on those designs should now find the Arctic Ocean a traversable sea from July-November, depending on exact conditions. Being able to travle from say Denmark to Japan via the Arctic would save tens of thousands of miles on a round trip, no need to go to Panama and no need to have a Panamax or smaller freighter. It may turn out that all that money Chna invested in the enlargement of the Panama Canal will be unessecery in another few years, which if I were them would Pi__-Off me no end.
Meltdown: A trip from Europe to Asia through the Northwest Passage would be 7,408 km (4,000 nautical mi) shorter than one through the Panama Canal.
For centuries, explorers sought the Northwest Passage as a shortcut for trade passing between the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. Most expeditions were thwarted by impassable ice covering the Arctic Ocean. That is until last September, when the once-fabled Passage was ice-free for the first time in recent history.
Each summer, sea ice in the Arctic melts to its annual minimum. This year it hit a record low of 4.28 million square kilometers (1.65 million square miles)--having lost 10 times more ice than the average yearly amount for the past 10 years and clearing the Northwest Passage. "The extra melted area was three times the size of Texas," says Peter Winsor, a researcher at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute.
Some scientists think this summer's big thaw was a result of global warming, an average increase in Earth's temperature. Arctic ice has been shrinking steadily over the years, If climate change continues, scientists say it's likely the Northwest Passage will re-open in future years.
Amount of Arctic ice in September
Measurements of summer ice in the Arctic Ocean vary from year to year. But the trend has been toward a steadily shrinking polar ice cap. Last September, this ice melted to an extreme low. Which year had the second lowest amount of Arctic sea ice?
Global warming has resulted in the rapid melting of Arctic ice and the passage is currently ice-free during the summer, making it navigable by non ice-strengthened vessels.
Mr. Spears said Canada has in the past played a key role in polar shipping and must do so in the future through its role in the Arctic Council, of which the U.S. and Finland are also members.
"We are going to see a seismic change in how we view the world," he added. "We are at the start of a story here that is going to unfold and develop. One of the big issues is Canadian sovereignty, but the reality is countries need to work together through the Arctic Council.
"We need to make it reflect a safety management approach and work with industry to get something that''s going to work. In my view, the sovereignty issue will take second place to commercial interests."
Bill Drew, executive director of the Churchill Gateway Development Corporation, noted that Churchill, Canada''s only Arctic port and a major export terminal for Canadian grain, is benefiting from a longer shipping season.
He said non ice-strengthened vessels are not supposed to leave Churchill after Oct. 31, but one left the port on Nov. 7 last year, and he expects a similar situation this year.
"The longer we can keep the port open, the better it is for us," he said. "We are not fans of global warming and it worries us considerably, but we are certainly going to take advantage from a shipping point of view."
Churchill loads 50,000 tonnes of export grain a week between July and October and is a major port for Arctic re-supply, shipping 40,000 to 50,000 tonnes of dry goods on scheduled tug and barge service to Nunavut communities.
Extending the shipping season by one week enables Churchill to load an additional 50,000 tonnes of Canadian export grain.
"We haven''t had a cold winter since 1992," Mr. Drew told delegates. "One ship captain told me there was more ice in his drink than he encountered coming into Churchill."
_________________ Always appeal to a man's enlightened self interest, you can trust him to look out for himself honestly, It's when you appeal to his Honor or the Common Good that he stops paying attention.
Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2008 12:35 am Post subject: Re: Record Ice Loss in Arctic 2008
This is NOT good news:
Exclusive: The methane time bomblink
Greg
Fixed long link. Please use the hyperlink function (instructions in the 'How To Get Around This Site..." thread in the Welcome Forum.) Thank you.-FL
Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2008 1:39 am Post subject: Re: Record Ice Loss in Arctic 2008
Maybe rocdoc could weigh in on this - what happens when warmer sea water starts infiltrating the areas filled with methane gas and "capped" by this permafrost. Will the "cap" begin melting from both sides, or will the geology prevent this kind of accelerated failure?
I have no idea what the insides of these deposits look like.
GregWatson wrote:
This is NOT good news: Exclusive: The methane time bomblink
Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2008 2:16 am Post subject: Re: Record Ice Loss in Arctic 2008
Hi J Brovont,
The researchers in the report seem to be reporting it differently than edge melting. They seem to suggest the protective permafrost layer is melting from the top down and developing holes, which permit columns of Methane to bubble up to the surface. So it would seem it is not melting from the edges but melting top down as the water above warms.
I see this as a big worry because as the permafrost layer thins, the exposed areas will increase much more rapidly than if it just melted at the edges.
And a press release about August being the fastest melt ever recorded: link
Quote:
Contributing to the near-record sea ice minimum in 2008 was a month-long period in the summer that saw the fastest-ever rate of seasonal retreat during that period. From August 1 to August 31, NASA data show that arctic sea ice extent declined at a rate of 32,700 square miles per day, compared to a rate of about 24,400 square miles per day in August 2007. Since measurements began, the arctic sea ice extent has declined at an average rate of 19,700 miles per day at the point when the extent reaches its annual minimum.
High retention of first-year ice: Perhaps the most interesting aspect of the 2008 melt season was the higher-than-average retention of first-year sea ice (see earlier entries, including April 7). Relatively thin first-year ice is more prone to melting out completely than older, thicker ice. However, more of this year’s first-year ice survived the melt season than is typical. Sea ice age maps from Sheldon Drobot, our colleague at the University of Colorado at Boulder, show that much more first-year ice survived in 2008 than in 2007. This is one of the reasons that 2008 did not break last year's record-low minimum.
One cause of the high first-year ice survival rate was that this summer was cooler than in 2007. Lower temperatures slowed the melt rate in the early part of the season. While conditions in August favored rapid ice loss, they were not enough to make up for this early-season "cushion." Furthermore, much of this year's first-year ice was located at higher latitudes than in 2007, covering even the geographic North Pole. Regions that are far north have lower melt rates because they receive less solar energy than more southerly regions.
Fixed long links. Please use the hyperlink function (instructions in the 'How To Get Around This Site..." thread in the Welcome Forum). Thank you.-FL
Joined: Apr 28, 2005 Posts: 3920 Location: West shore Lake Eire, MI, USA
Posted: Sun Sep 28, 2008 10:23 am Post subject: Re: Record Ice Loss in Arctic 2008
dorlomin wrote:
Quote:
One cause of the high first-year ice survival rate was that this summer was cooler than in 2007. Lower temperatures slowed the melt rate in the early part of the season. While conditions in August favored rapid ice loss, they were not enough to make up for this early-season "cushion." Furthermore, much of this year's first-year ice was located at higher latitudes than in 2007, covering even the geographic North Pole. Regions that are far north have lower melt rates because they receive less solar energy than more southerly regions.
Based upon this graphic alone and judging by eye it appears that 6+ year ice has been reduced by half, 5 year ice is up a little bit, 4th, 3rd and 2nd year ice have taken significant losses. Also a good portion of the remaing 3rd year ice and a slice of the 5th year ice are poised to exit the Fram Strait and melt before the start of melt season next spring even gets underway. Because there is such a small reamnent of 2nd and 4th year ice there is going to be a significant gap in long term 6+ formation even if things return to the 1980's pattern this winter.
On the one hand the survival of so much 1st year ice is a good thing in that it means we could start rebuilding and go back to normal within 6 more years. On the other hand the decline in long term ice is starting to look like a trend, not just an anomoly. On the gripping hand if you look at the two images it is clear only the old ice close to the Greenland Ice Sheet, with its own climate zone, are safe from melting, and a lot of that ice is being flushed ou the Fram strait year around and nelting anyhow. _________________ Always appeal to a man's enlightened self interest, you can trust him to look out for himself honestly, It's when you appeal to his Honor or the Common Good that he stops paying attention.
Posted: Tue Sep 30, 2008 2:38 pm Post subject: Re: Record Ice Loss in Arctic 2008
Does anyone know the reason for the big anomaly south of Svalbard: Chart (very large)
You would not think the Gulf Stream effects would be that far north.
Changed link per COC: 3.1.2 "Graphic content: Do not post linked in graphics/photos more than 450 pixels wide. Instead, include an HTML link to the image." -FL
Joined: Apr 28, 2005 Posts: 3920 Location: West shore Lake Eire, MI, USA
Posted: Tue Sep 30, 2008 6:05 pm Post subject: Re: Record Ice Loss in Arctic 2008
Acording to THIS article from last fall warm Atlantic waters have been intruding around Spitspbergen since at least 2002.
Quote:
Blue mussels (Mytilus edulis L.) have not been present at Svalbard for the last 1,000 years (Salvigsen 2002, Lonne & Nemec 2004), and not in great abundance since 7,000 years BP (Fig 1A). The period between 10,700 and 7,700 years BP has been identified as a Holocene thermal optimum (Rahmstorf 2002, Duplessy et al. 2001, Andreev 2004) with summer SST of 8°C in addition to an enhancement (Sarnthein et al. 2003) of the West Spitsbergen Current (Fig. 1B). Related to this well documented distribution pattern of blue mussels during the Holocene, the discovery of a viable population in Svalbard raises important questions regarding effects of short term ocean climate oscillations in the high Arctic. Due to the blue mussels’ sensitivity to short-term marine temperature fluctuations (Peacock 1989, Honkoop & van der Meer 1998), these findings suggest that recent water temperatures approach those of the Medieval Warm Period when Viking settlements were founded on Iceland, Greenland and Newfoundland.
_________________ Always appeal to a man's enlightened self interest, you can trust him to look out for himself honestly, It's when you appeal to his Honor or the Common Good that he stops paying attention.
Joined: Apr 28, 2005 Posts: 3920 Location: West shore Lake Eire, MI, USA
Posted: Tue Sep 30, 2008 7:33 pm Post subject: Re: Record Ice Loss in Arctic 2008
Another article on warmer Atlantic waters near Spitsbergen last November HERE.
Quote:
However, this year the current was active all the way to the sea surface, an observation never made before. The satellite images showed that Kongsfjorden is ice-free, so “Lance” set course towards Ny-Alesund so we could find the reason for an open fjord. Usually there is sea ice in Kongsfjorden at this time of year, at least from the Kongsvegen glacier front and out to Ny-Alesund. The Kongsfjorden experiences ocean swells from the northwest, which breaks up the ice; and strong winds from southeast that brings the broken ice out of the fjord. However, this year we found that the entire Kongsfjorden was filled with warm Atlantic water, so the ice had melted completely.
In the Arctic the Atlantic Ocean water appear at 100 m depth or more, and is thus isolated from the sea ice. If the Atlantic Ocean water now is starting to rise up towards the surface, the future of the spreading of sea ice is indeed in peril!
_________________ Always appeal to a man's enlightened self interest, you can trust him to look out for himself honestly, It's when you appeal to his Honor or the Common Good that he stops paying attention.
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