Oil's energy contribution has declined by about 12% since 1999. The world's economies have also declined by about 12%. (Using conventional metrics, which are time delayed determinations, this will only be seen in hind sight). The massive destruction of asset values now occurring testifies to it happening.
Peak is well behind us, world economies have peaked and will continue to decline.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Mon Sep 15, 2008 6:21 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Quote:
Although certain refineries are in process of re-starting, there remain several notable major potential flooding issues, especially ExxonMobil’s Beaumont 363 kb/d; Shell-Motiva’s and Valero’s Port Arthurs (300kb/d & 294 kb/d respectively), representing some 1mb/d of capacity that is likely to be out for at least two weeks and quite possibly up to one month. The net effect will be to tighten markets hard as we move towards winter; keeping in mind that European refining downtime will prevent a massive glut of imported product; and US refiners also need turnaround.
WSJ Blogs _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
"John Hofmeister, the former president of Shell Oil Co. and one of the most influential voices in the oil industry, called for short-term gasoline rationing by introducing odd-even purchases based on an automobile's license plate and by limiting the amount of gasoline drivers can purchase.
The United States will be in "a world of hurt" for the next four to six weeks as the oil industry recovers from the damage from Hurricanes Gustav and Ike, said Mr. Hofmeister, who recently founded a new company, Citizens for Affordable Energy. The areas where rationing will be needed include the Southeast and extend northward toward Denver, the upper Midwest and Washington, D.C., Mr. Hofmeister said in a newsmaker interview Monday morning with editors and reporters of The Washington Times."
_________________ "When fascism comes to America it will be wrapped in a flag and carrying a cross." --Sinclair Lewis
Joined: Aug 24, 2005 Posts: 442 Location: Costa Geriatrica, Spain
Posted: Mon Sep 15, 2008 7:02 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
DantesPeak wrote:
Hopefully, they still have the fuel in their Euro-SPR.
Yup..Its mandatory under EU regulation. Each country is *supposed* to hold 90 days of consumption of petroleum products in reserve. Most are in compliance, a few including the UK are not.
Last edited by skeptik on Mon Sep 15, 2008 7:12 pm; edited 1 time in total
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Mon Sep 15, 2008 7:52 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
pup55 wrote:
Quote:
The United States will be in "a world of hurt" for the next four to six weeks
Another PO.com viewer emerges.
Yes, PO.com covered this recently:
Quote:
The areas where rationing will be needed include the Southeast and extend northward toward Denver, the upper Midwest and Washington, D.C., Mr. Hofmeister said in a newsmaker interview Monday morning with editors and reporters of The Washington Times.
As I said yesterday, price controls and/or gasoline rationing will likely be initiated somewhere at the state level within one week (DC is not a state but could act like one).
I don't think that there will be federal intervention unless panic starts - except for more fuel content waivers, like this one today:
Quote:
On September 15, EPA issued an emergency waiver to allow federal Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel (ULSD) fuel to be used in the 110-county area of eastern Texas where Texas Low-Emission Diesel (TxLED) fuel is required, through September 30.
EPA _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Posted: Mon Sep 15, 2008 8:33 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
DantesPeak wrote:
pup55 wrote:
Quote:
The United States will be in "a world of hurt" for the next four to six weeks
Another PO.com viewer emerges.
Yes, PO.com covered this recently:
Quote:
The areas where rationing will be needed include the Southeast and extend northward toward Denver, the upper Midwest and Washington, D.C., Mr. Hofmeister said in a newsmaker interview Monday morning with editors and reporters of The Washington Times.
As I said yesterday, price controls and/or gasoline rationing will likely be initiated somewhere at the state level within one week (DC is not a state but could act like one).
I don't think that there will be federal intervention unless panic starts - except for more fuel content waivers, like this one today:
Quote:
On September 15, EPA issued an emergency waiver to allow federal Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel (ULSD) fuel to be used in the 110-county area of eastern Texas where Texas Low-Emission Diesel (TxLED) fuel is required, through September 30.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Mon Sep 15, 2008 8:36 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
There is no glut of anything at this time.
The shortages relate to disruptions to refineries and pipelines caused by Hurricane Gustav, which takes as shortonoil says, about two weeks to show up in the mid-atlantic states. _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Posted: Mon Sep 15, 2008 8:39 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
DantesPeak wrote:
There is no glut of anything at this time.
The shortages relate to disruptions to refineries and pipelines caused by Hurricane Gustav, which takes as shortonoil says, about two weeks to show up in the mid-atlantic states.
to rephrase the question, if we had not any hurricanes this season,
would inventories of gasoline and crude be higher than normal or'
lower than normal.
And if lower than normal, would that have indicated a lower demand
for it this season ??
Posted: Tue Sep 16, 2008 7:07 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
It's about time -- I was wondering if problems getting oil out of the SPR is the issue. SPR Oil to Illinois
Quote:
ConocoPhillips said the U.S. Department of Energy approved its request for 1 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve for its refinery in Wood River, Illinois.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Tue Sep 16, 2008 4:11 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Quote:
SEPTEMBER 16, 2008, 1:48 P.M. ET MARKET TALK:Mkt Underestimating Hurricane Supply Disruptions-Analyst Article
[Dow Jones]--The market is underestimating hurricane related supply disruptions, according to refining analyst Chi Chow of Tristone Capital Co. in Denver. While most of the refineries appear to have escaped significant structural damage, the lack of feedstock supplies and essential utilities could keep refineries from running full rates for weeks, Chow said. "Trading within the US refiner group remains unnervingly volatile, but we see enough visible catalysts to maintain our long refining call," he wrote in a comment to clients.
SEPTEMBER 16, 2008, 4:22 P.M. ET UPDATE:DOE:Texas Refineries To Start Returning Within A Few Days Article
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--Some Texas refineries will start coming back online in the wake of Hurricane Ike "within a few days," but will take a week to 10 days after that to return to full capacity, a senior U.S. administration official said Tuesday.
Hurricane Ike forced the shutdown of 14 refineries in Texas and Louisiana - about one-fifth of the nation's refining capacity - causing supply shortages in some regions of the storm-battered country.
Aboard Air Force One, Kevin Kolevar, Department of Energy assistant secretary for Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability, told White House pool coverage that there was enough damage from the hurricane that "at least a couple that will take a long time to come back up."
He didn't say which refineries.
Kovelar said that tankers with deliveries from overseas were gathering in the Gulf of Mexico waiting for some of the ship channels closed by the storm to reopen.
This created a "constrained product situation," and could lead to higher prices for gasoline, home heating oil, jet fuel any refined oil products.
Kovelar said much of the East Coast, including Washington D.C., relies on oil that is pulled out of the Gulf coast region. He said that while "there is a period of constrained supply right now," refined oil products are coming online from Mississippi and Louisiana. "The major pipelines that get product to the midwest, into the East Coast, are running right now and we're also seeing an increase in international deliveries" because foreign suppliers know there is a market they can now fill, said Kovelar.
Kovelar said tankers were parked in the Gulf waiting for the Coast Guard Corps of Engineers to give them the "all clear" to come back into the Houston Ship Channel and make deliveries. Also, the Louisiana Offshore Oil Platform, the LOOP, is operating at only 50% capacity, he said.
WSJ _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Posted: Tue Sep 16, 2008 6:33 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
oilluber said:
Quote:
Dantes.... is this shortage a direct result of the hurricanes ??
Would we have had a glut in inventory if not for the hurricanes ??
Dantes and pup55 are better informed on the historical aspect of distillate inventories than I am, but the gasoline situation I can speak to. When Gustav struck the gasoline inventory was 187 mb. This is quite a low number from an historical perspective. Also, it had been declining for almost a year. If its decline had continued, and there are several reasons to believe that it would have, this situation would have eventually appeared anyway.
Posted: Wed Sep 17, 2008 12:52 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Analysts predictions for today's data:
Quote:
On average, industry analysts surveyed by Platts expect the Wednesday report to show that crude supplies fell by 3.7 million barrels for the week ended Sept. 12, distillates fell by 1.7 million and motor gasoline inventories fell by 3.6 million barrels.
"A combination of lower imports as the Louisiana Offshore Oil Platform and the Houston Ship Channel closed ahead of the arrival of Hurricane Ike, as well as oil production in the Gulf of Mexico that remained shut-in after Hurricane Gustav, will result in another week of sharp stock declines," said Linda Rafield, Platts senior oil analyst, in a note to clients.
And I will also present a very simplified prediction:
Crude: -8 Mb
Gasoline: -5 Mb
Distillates: -2 Mb
Posted: Wed Sep 17, 2008 6:12 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
You may beat me, Ming....
The wild card is... at what level did actual production take place last week vs. the previous. The situation report only had about 250K of capacity still down by Friday, but all that really means is that the refinery was functional, not what they actually produced.
Then, there is the issue of demand, which I have been having a terrible time with for the last month or so.
We will see. Those rats at Bloomberg stopped putting out their "expectations" and I had my stuff all calibrated for them, rather than Platts or DJ.
Posted: Wed Sep 17, 2008 7:24 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
If all we get is several million barrel draws then it's really only a garden variety inventory draw. I was expecting 10 mb+ draws, especially in gasoline, from the storm. _________________ Civilization: the biosphere's skin disease
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