Happy days are here again

Zardoz · Posted: Fri Sep 19, 2008 7:19 am Post subject: Happy days are here again

The charade will go on. We'll all nod and wink at each other, heave a big sigh of relief, and go about our business as usual. Sure, many jobs will be lost, much more wealth will be destroyed, and many more people will lose everything they have as their properties are foreclosed on.

But the game will continue. The fat lady has yet to sing.

Prediction: By Halloween or so, the Dow Jones Industrial Average will have gone over 13,000 at least once. We may see a 500-point jump today. Everybody's buying into Hank & Ben's Bailout Plan. Everybody's on board. Why wouldn't they be? What other choice do they have?

Did we actually think they wouldn't come up with some sort of stunt to pull themselves out of this mess-of-biblical-proportions they've created? Did we actually think a system of smoke and mirrors couldn't be sustained by a clever re-arranging of the mirrors and an infusion of even more smoke?

Sorry to disappoint you, all you fast-crashers, but it ain't gonna happen quite yet. When the oil begins to run out, that'll be another story. You don't sit at a keyboard and create more Black Gold. Bide your time. It'll come. You'll eventually have a use for your bunkers, but for now, our current domiciles will be all we'll need.

Everybody back to sleep.
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"Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen

Heineken · Posted: Fri Sep 19, 2008 7:39 am Post subject: Re: Happy days are here again

Zardoz is clearly right. I've given up on my doom hopes for now.

What some of us have overlooked is that the means to resolve this crisis are in the same hands that created it. The copper-electroplated zinc coin has two sides, but it's the same coin.

The Monopoly game goes on. The banker just needed more play money from the printer, and now it's arrived.
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"Actually, humans died out long ago."
---Abused, abandoned hunting dog

"Things have entered a stage where the only change that is possible is for things to get worse."
---Me and my brother

sjn · Posted: Fri Sep 19, 2008 7:46 am Post subject: Re: Happy days are here again

Are you sure this isn't the crash? What made you think the equity markets would crash downwards? Shocked

Carlhole · Knight of the Realm Joined: Jul 05, 2004 Posts: 3275

This bailout should weaken the dollar again, right? That means oil rallies and energy stocks have hit a bottom.

This whole experience is tailor-made for Ron Paul. If he doesn't come out with a totall explanatory video or something, he's just not trying.

I just listened to Paulson explain the "root cause" of the US financial system. But he only talked about symptoms!
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UncoveringTruths · Intermediate Crude Joined: Nov 04, 2004 Posts: 902

When oil rises back to striking distance of $150 we'll be back to square one. I say this buys us a year or so.
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Cynus · Intermediate Crude Joined: Aug 13, 2004 Posts: 610

I know that people laugh when you say to call your Congressman and Senator and tell them to oppose the bailout, but it does actually work if enough people do it. The immigration bill is an example where the phones were deluged with calls which caused the bill to fail. It only takes a second and can't hurt.
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Arsenal · Posted: Fri Sep 19, 2008 8:55 am Post subject: Re: Happy days are here again

This market jump makes me feel even worse. Even though I am a doomer I wasn't sold on the fast crash scenario but this is scaring the crap out of me. At least with a crash in the stock market the economy slows and something can be built out of the ashes. Now instead it feels like TPTB have hit the NO2 while still heading for the brick wall. Didn't the market have its highest gains on record right before the crash back in the 30's?

Ugh.

Arsenal

The_Virginian · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Jun 19, 2004 Posts: 1528

firestarter · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Mar 19, 2006 Posts: 1181

You're wrong, Zardoz. After the euphoria wears off today, we are set up for the biggest crash in modern times. Yes I said it. Biggest!

Now that they won't have short covering rallies to gin the market we'll crash once traders wrap their heads around the fact that the opaque securities the govt is going to purchase from banks that will actually accelerate bank failures, not make them healthier. Mark to market is coming out of this plan, and it's going to torpedo the market, period.

The govt is not going to pay more than pennies on the dollar for these illiquid assets. They'll have their Super Govt SIV alright, while at the same time emasculating the very folks they set out to save. If anything the banks won't sell em to the govt at all, preferring to keep them hid indefinitely instead. If govt paid mark to model then it would cost several trillion bucks. Ain't gonna happen. Crash commences once figured out, which won't be long.
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Civilization: the biosphere's skin disease

sjn · Posted: Fri Sep 19, 2008 9:41 am Post subject: Re: Happy days are here again

Prince · Heavy Crude Joined: Dec 26, 2005 Posts: 233

For the life of me I still don't understand why people don't see this for what it is. When AIG was bailed out two days ago, people panicked because they said this wouldn't work, since the core problem doesn't go away.

Now we hear that the Feds are proposing a bailout of massive order. They don't call it a bailout, of course, and yet everyone cheers. The casino changed a few rules, and the gambling continues.

How does Wall Street and its minions think this work? How?

firestarter · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Mar 19, 2006 Posts: 1181

Good post by Mish (in short we're setting up for the mother of all crashes):

Mish: click here

sjn, The govt will not buy the paper at mark to model. No way. That's why this, when minds wrap around it, will lead to a violent market reaction to the downside, no doubt with the aid of suspending shortselling. Dumb and dumber.
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Civilization: the biosphere's skin disease

TommyJefferson · Posted: Fri Sep 19, 2008 9:55 am Post subject: Re: Happy days are here again

firestarter · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Mar 19, 2006 Posts: 1181