Oil's energy contribution has declined by about 12% since 1999. The world's economies have also declined by about 12%. (Using conventional metrics, which are time delayed determinations, this will only be seen in hind sight). The massive destruction of asset values now occurring testifies to it happening.
Peak is well behind us, world economies have peaked and will continue to decline.
Posted: Fri Sep 19, 2008 8:35 am Post subject: Re: Is the world economy collapsing NOW?
Heineken said:
Quote:
Shortonoil, would you care to comment on the proposed "US Department of Debt"?
Well, obviously it will be the largest department in the US government. It will have a cabinet position, and GW Shrubb will appoint Satan as the first cabinet Secretary.
Posted: Fri Sep 19, 2008 8:40 am Post subject: Re: Is the world economy collapsing NOW?
Hoover did the same thing durig the Depression.
During the S&L Scandal a similar tactic was tried.
This "Debt Dept." is laughable and anyone with a good eye and a history book can see how well it worked in the past.
Posted: Fri Sep 19, 2008 9:07 am Post subject: Re: Is the world economy collapsing NOW?
Heineken wrote:
How would the new agency "get rid" of all the mortgage and other bad debt? How would this work? Public debt is supposed to exclude private debt, although just saying that now sounds like a joke---a joke on us.
What about taking bad debt from banks and supplying them with good money instead.
Then, after securing wide international agreement all this bad debt would simply get canceled and forgotten and usual loan binge would be allowed to go on?
As a byproduct of that millions of Americans would be allowed to stay in houses which they really cannot afford.
All those hard working peoples, who were paying off their debts would be slightly pissed off but no one would care.
Hey, that might be actual solution, which they have in mind.
Posted: Fri Sep 19, 2008 11:02 am Post subject: Re: Is the world economy collapsing NOW?
EnergyUnlimited wrote:
Heineken wrote:
How would the new agency "get rid" of all the mortgage and other bad debt? How would this work? Public debt is supposed to exclude private debt, although just saying that now sounds like a joke---a joke on us.
What about taking bad debt from banks and supplying them with good money instead.
Then, after securing wide international agreement all this bad debt would simply get canceled and forgotten and usual loan binge would be allowed to go on?
As a byproduct of that millions of Americans would be allowed to stay in houses which they really cannot afford.
All those hard working peoples, who were paying off their debts would be slightly pissed off but no one would care.
Hey, that might be actual solution, which they have in mind.
Watch the resiliency in the price of gold, while the stock market surges. This should tell you all you need to know. I heard on the radio this morning that the govt was taking over bad debt, and hoping to resell it! How are they going to do that, other than use the threat of military force? And with the Chinese already fondling the lever of their own weapons of mass financial destruction, is this even possible?
It's conservatively estimated that they are taking on half a trillion in bad debt. This is expected to easily double. How that wouldn't be inflationary, is a good guess. I wouldn't bank on it...literally.
Joined: May 26, 2008 Posts: 1190 Location: Chicago, IL
Posted: Fri Sep 19, 2008 3:23 pm Post subject: Re: Is the world economy collapsing NOW?
Disclaimer: Mr Black Cloud here.
Well, world economy didn't collapse on Wednesday, neither on Thursday, and actually the DJIA ended up for the week. I'm not saying this was a great week; 1. the $2T bailout scares me to death, and 2. there's more in store.
But come on, all panicky ultra doomers. Please come out of the bunkers and acknowledge your world economy expertise is as accurate as Bush's WMD plan.
Posted: Fri Sep 19, 2008 5:30 pm Post subject: Re: Is the world economy collapsing NOW?
threadbear said:
Quote:
It's conservatively estimated that they are taking on half a trillion in bad debt. This is expected to easily double. How that wouldn't be inflationary, is a good guess. I wouldn't bank on it...literally.
Considering that US housing is declining in value by about $2.5 trillion per year, and that devaluation will show up in the bonds that were issued to fund those sales, a half trillion $ sounds a little optimistic. If the government ran an accrual set of books like the corner store down my road does, their half trillion $ would be gone by Christmas.
Who do they think they are fooling?
VMarcHart said:
Quote:
Amuse me.
Why bother with you when I’ve got a perfect good jackass in my backyard to entertain?
Posted: Fri Sep 19, 2008 5:43 pm Post subject: Re: Is the world economy collapsing NOW?
VMarcHart wrote:
Disclaimer: Mr Black Cloud here.
Well, world economy didn't collapse on Wednesday, neither on Thursday, and actually the DJIA ended up for the week. I'm not saying this was a great week; 1. the $2T bailout scares me to death, and 2. there's more in store.
But come on, all panicky ultra doomers. Please come out of the bunkers and acknowledge your world economy expertise is as accurate as Bush's WMD plan.
You're so fool of yourselves.
Amuse me.
How exactly would you describe what's happened this week? Business as usual? The nominal value of the DJIA may not be the best gauge of economic health.
Posted: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:14 am Post subject: Re: Is the world economy collapsing NOW?
sjn wrote:
How exactly would you describe what's happened this week? Business as usual? The nominal value of the DJIA may not be the best gauge of economic health.
Yes, indeed.
I have already posted it on PO forum, but for those who missed, look again:
Posted: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:23 am Post subject: Re: Is the world economy collapsing NOW?
threadbear wrote:
I heard on the radio this morning that the govt was taking over bad debt, and hoping to resell it! How are they going to do that, other than use the threat of military force? And with the Chinese already fondling the lever of their own weapons of mass financial destruction, is this even possible?
I doubt that US would resort to military threats to push this debt.
After all it is clearly seen that US Army is stranded in Afghanistan and Iraq and neutralized to large degree by the same.
OK,
Neocons may start threaten world with nukes at some point.
However there is plenty of nukes around (mainly in Russia).
US would not survive that.
Quote:
It's conservatively estimated that they are taking on half a trillion in bad debt. This is expected to easily double. How that wouldn't be inflationary, is a good guess. I wouldn't bank on it...literally.
I think, main problem is that getting rid of one part of bad debt will result in other chunk of debt turning to be a bad one too.
That domino effect could wipe out many trillions before it is resolved.
It may not be far fetched to say that majority of any kind of debt in circulation is actually a bad debt.
Posted: Sat Sep 20, 2008 4:54 am Post subject: Re: Is the world economy collapsing NOW?
Well my wild A *** guess for fridays close and conditions was wrong, wrong wrong. but so was pretty much anyone elses who put forth any numbers. Anyone want to quess what next fridays close will bring us?? Will people figure out that there is more toxic debt and nuclear waste then the full faith and credit of the USA can cover?
Posted: Sat Sep 20, 2008 5:48 am Post subject: Re: Is the world economy collapsing NOW?
vtsnowedin wrote:
Well my wild A *** guess for fridays close and conditions was wrong, wrong wrong. but so was pretty much anyone elses who put forth any numbers. Anyone want to quess what next fridays close will bring us?? Will people figure out that there is more toxic debt and nuclear waste then the full faith and credit of the USA can cover?
My Wild A$$ guess is that in Cahoots, all Central banks all over the world are freezing the markets and freezing prices best they can through manipulation of the money supply. Any movement in the market is counteracted by a money supply correction.Working in concert, the effect here is to keep the currencies balnced against a theoretical minima, defined basically as where we were before the F&F bailout. I'm still working on figuring out how you manipulate the variables and maintain the price structure, but I think it can be done in the absence of short selling for a defined period of time, long as you drop in a fudge variable. The Fudge Variable is the mythical RTC where you dump the losses and expect at some point in the future to recover from those losses. This keeps all prices stable for the short term, until it blows up on you when you cannot recover any of the losses from the RTC.
This is quite neat engineering for the short term stabilization of the markets. You push as many numbers around as you need to to maintain a steady state balance at a given price level, while the actual worldwide value is steadily going down. You might even show increased GDP with this method.
You run into problems as soon as you allow the short sellers back into the market to bet on what is losing value. So I do not see how they would allow this to happen.
The market will continue to show a Profit here regardless of whether the companies are even in business! It has to collapse by Tax Time next year no matter how this is engineered up IMHO. However, it does appear to be remarkable work for the short term.
Posted: Sat Sep 20, 2008 6:17 am Post subject: Re: Is the world economy collapsing NOW?
Naked short sellers will put their clothes on and start really selling any stock they own that they think is going down and may be joined by the other long term holders of the stock. The game is more or less the same but with different players. If you sell it today at 100 and buy it back tomorrow at 80 you made 20 minus commissions. As long as wall street is open for buisiness gambling will be leagle in NY NY.
Joined: May 26, 2008 Posts: 1190 Location: Chicago, IL
Posted: Sat Sep 20, 2008 6:20 am Post subject: Re: Is the world economy collapsing NOW?
sjn wrote:
How exactly would you describe what's happened this week? Business as usual?
No, it was a horrible week. But the thread was "Is the world economy collapsing on Tuesday ... Wednesday ... Thursday ... Now?" What I'm pointing to, is this site is full of self-proclaimed experts, whose expertise are off, yours truly included. Now the Monday morning quaterbacks will come out and explain how they would've done it.
Joined: Sep 14, 2004 Posts: 6627 Location: Rural Virginia
Posted: Sat Sep 20, 2008 8:07 am Post subject: Re: Is the world economy collapsing NOW?
VMarcHart wrote:
sjn wrote:
How exactly would you describe what's happened this week? Business as usual?
No, it was a horrible week. But the thread was "Is the world economy collapsing on Tuesday ... Wednesday ... Thursday ... Now?" What I'm pointing to, is this site is full of self-proclaimed experts, whose expertise are off, yours truly included. Now the Monday morning quaterbacks will come out and explain how they would've done it.
Actually the world economy WAS collapsing, but the collapse was halted by extraordinary maneuvers. So the thread title has not been inappropriate.
Although the collapse has been flash-frozen for now, I don't think we've seen the end of the troubles.
No, I'm not an economist either, so probably I don't have a clue. But from what I can tell the global economic system is now so fantastically complex and jury-rigged that even the economists don't fully understand it. _________________ "Actually, humans died out long ago."
---Abused, abandoned hunting dog
"Things have entered a stage where the only change that is possible is for things to get worse."
---Me and my brother
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Well my wild A *** guess for fridays close and conditions was wrong, wrong wrong. but so was pretty much anyone elses who put forth any numbers. Anyone want to quess what next fridays close will bring us?? Will people figure out that there is more toxic debt and nuclear waste then the full faith and credit of the USA can cover?
Naked short sellers will put their clothes on and start really selling any stock they own that they think is going down and may be joined by the other long term holders of the stock. The game is more or less the same but with different players. If you sell it today at 100 and buy it back tomorrow at 80 you made 20 minus commissions. As long as wall street is open for buisiness gambling will be leagle in NY NY.
