Oil's energy contribution has declined by about 12% since 1999. The world's economies have also declined by about 12%. (Using conventional metrics, which are time delayed determinations, this will only be seen in hind sight). The massive destruction of asset values now occurring testifies to it happening.
Peak is well behind us, world economies have peaked and will continue to decline.
Posted: Fri Sep 26, 2008 5:47 am Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
Kyle is headed towards us. He's going to make landfall in the Bay of Fundy. _________________ Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - Tropical Storm Marco formed on Monday in the southern Gulf of Mexico in the vicinity of Mexico's main oil production facilities but the country's three main oil exporting ports remained open.
The small 100 km (60 mile) diameter storm, which brewed up quickly on Monday, was 185 km (115 miles) east of the city of Veracruz as of 1800 GMT, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.
Marco could possibly reach hurricane strength before making an expected landfall late on Monday or early Tuesday morning.
The Mexican government has issued a hurricane watch for the country's eastern coast between Cabo Rojo and Veracruz, the NHC said.
State oil company Pemex had no immediate comment on the possible impact the storm had on its operations. The Mexican government reported that all three main oil exporting ports on the Gulf of Mexico were open as of Monday afternoon.
Mexico reduced oil production by 250,000 barrels per day on September 24 due to refinery outages in the United States caused by Hurricane Ike. Weather-related disruptions to shipping have prevented state oil company Pemex from boosting output since then.
Jeff Masters commented on the remarkable rapidity Marco showed going from TD to TS. I don't think he'll impact operations at Cantarell etc. - perhaps some fields are in his path, though. _________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
C'mon man, who're you gonna believe?
(CNN) -- Tropical Storm Omar formed Tuesday in the eastern Caribbean Sea with top winds of 40 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida.
The storm's center is about 125 miles north of Curacao, an island in the Netherlands Antilles off the coast of Venezuela, the hurricane center reported in its 11 a.m. ET advisory.
Tropical storm warnings have been issued for Puerto Rico, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and the extreme eastern portion of the Dominican Republic.
Headed NE. _________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
C'mon man, who're you gonna believe?
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Thu Oct 16, 2008 5:26 am Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
Quote:
OCTOBER 16, 2008, 4:40 A.M. ET
Hurricane Omar Hits Virgin Islands; Refinery Shut
SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico (AFP)--Hurricane Omar pounded the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico with lashing rain and 125 mile-per-hour winds on Thursday after strengthening into a major category three storm.
Quickening its pace along a northeasterly track, Omar veered away from San Juan as it headed out to open water with its center about 55 miles (90 kilometers) northwest of St. Martin at 0700 GMT, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.
Officials warned of possible fatalities with forecasters saying Omar could rain up to 20 inches (50 centimeters) as it churned across the Northern Leeward Islands and the Virgin Islands.
"These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides," read a warning from the NHC.
Omar sent the U.S. and British Virgin Islands into lock-down, after the storm upgraded late Wednesday to a category three on the Saffir-Simpson scale of one to five which measures the potential damage and flooding a hurricane might cause upon landfall.
Particular areas of concern were the coastlines of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, where massive wave surges of four to six feet (1.2-1.8 meters) above normal were predicted.
An oil refinery on St. Croix in the U.S. Virgin Islands shut down most of its 500,000 barrels a day operations in advance of the storm, "except those necessary to maintain power supply in the complex," spokesman Alex Moorhead said.
The area around the refinery was closed by the U.S. Coast Guard on Tuesday, and would remain shut until further notice, he said. The refinery is owned by Hess Corp. (HES)and Venezuela's state oil company Petroleos de Venezuela.
"Once Hurricane Omar has passed, we will conduct an inspection of our facilities as soon as it is safe to do so. If no damage is found that would impact safe operation of the refinery, the startup of processing units will begin in sequential order," Moorhead said.
WSJ _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
It has now changed to red (> 50% probability of development), and NHC posted the following notice:
Quote:
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE BORDER OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. THIS SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY.
The track forecast
A strong trough of low pressure approaching the U.S. East Coast is pulling Paloma to the north, and this trough should continue to pull the storm northwards and then turn it northeastward by Saturday. Several major models--the NOGAPS, GFS, and ECMWF--predict that Paloma will be torn in two by the wind shear just south of Cuba, with the low level remnants getting forced westward towards the Yucatan Peninsula. This solution seems unlikely, given the fact that Paloma is likely to grow much stronger and more resistant to wind shear than these models are predicting. I expect Paloma will follow the track of the GFDL, HWRF, and GFS models, which show the storm may pass very close to Grand Cayman Island on Saturday, then make landfall in southern Cuba on Sunday and continue on through the central Bahamas.
_________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
C'mon man, who're you gonna believe?
The track forecast
A strong trough of low pressure approaching the U.S. East Coast is pulling Paloma to the north, and this trough should continue to pull the storm northwards and then turn it northeastward by Saturday. Several major models--the NOGAPS, GFS, and ECMWF--predict that Paloma will be torn in two by the wind shear just south of Cuba, with the low level remnants getting forced westward towards the Yucatan Peninsula. This solution seems unlikely, given the fact that Paloma is likely to grow much stronger and more resistant to wind shear than these models are predicting. I expect Paloma will follow the track of the GFDL, HWRF, and GFS models, which show the storm may pass very close to Grand Cayman Island on Saturday, then make landfall in southern Cuba on Sunday and continue on through the central Bahamas.
_________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
C'mon man, who're you gonna believe?
Posted: Thu Nov 06, 2008 8:08 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
from Jeff Master's blog:
Quote:
This year and 2005 are the only seasons that we've had major hurricanes in the Atlantic in four separate months--July, August, September, and October. If Paloma becomes a major hurricane, it will make 2008 the first year since record keeping began in 1851 to feature major hurricanes in five separate months.
The track forecast
A strong trough of low pressure approaching the U.S. East Coast is pulling Paloma to the north, and this trough should continue to pull the storm northwards and then turn it northeastward by Saturday. Several major models--the NOGAPS, GFS, and ECMWF--predict that Paloma will be torn in two by the wind shear just south of Cuba, with the low level remnants getting forced westward towards the Yucatan Peninsula. This solution seems unlikely, given the fact that Paloma is likely to grow much stronger and more resistant to wind shear than these models are predicting. I expect Paloma will follow the track of the GFDL, HWRF, and GFS models, which show the storm may pass very close to Grand Cayman Island on Saturday, then make landfall in southern Cuba on Sunday and continue on through the central Bahamas.
Looks like Cuba is going to get PLOWED again. How that island can ever come back from this hurricane season is beyond me.
Posted: Sat Nov 08, 2008 9:06 am Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
GoghGoner wrote:
from Jeff Master's blog:
Quote:
This year and 2005 are the only seasons that we've had major hurricanes in the Atlantic in four separate months--July, August, September, and October. If Paloma becomes a major hurricane, it will make 2008 the first year since record keeping began in 1851 to feature major hurricanes in five separate months.
Well, another record broken since Paloma is a major.
Joined: Apr 06, 2006 Posts: 3626 Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
Posted: Sat Nov 08, 2008 2:37 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
GoghGoner wrote:
Is it bad forum to always reply to yourself?
Doesn't bother me, but puns on the other hand...
Paloma's up to Cat 4:
Wunderblog wrote:
Cuba will take a terrific pounding from Paloma, and damage from the triple crunchings delivered by Hurricanes Gustav, Ike, and Paloma will make 2008 the worst hurricane season in Cuban history.
Quote:
A new record for the hurricane season of 2008
This year is now the only hurricane season on record in the Atlantic that has featured major hurricanes in five separate months. The only year to feature major hurricanes in four separate months was 2005, and many years have had major hurricanes in three separate months. This year's record-setting fivesome were Hurricane Bertha in July, Hurricane Gustav in August, Hurricane Ike in September, Hurricane Omar in October, and Hurricane Paloma in November.
Paloma is now the second strongest November hurricane on record in the Atlantic. Hurricane Lenny of 1999, a Category 4 hurricane with 155 mph winds, was the strongest November hurricane on record. Paloma shares second place with Hurricane Michelle of 2001 (Cat 4, 140 mph) and Hurricane Greta of 1956 (Cat 4, 140 mph).
He also says Cuba will break it up so much there's almost no chance of Paloma reaching landfall in the States. _________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
C'mon man, who're you gonna believe?
Joined: Apr 06, 2006 Posts: 3626 Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
Posted: Sat Nov 08, 2008 2:43 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
GoghGoner wrote:
Is it bad forum to always reply to yourself?
Doesn't bother me, but puns on the other hand...
Paloma's up to Cat 4:
Wunderblog wrote:
Cuba will take a terrific pounding from Paloma, and damage from the triple crunchings delivered by Hurricanes Gustav, Ike, and Paloma will make 2008 the worst hurricane season in Cuban history.
Quote:
A new record for the hurricane season of 2008
This year is now the only hurricane season on record in the Atlantic that has featured major hurricanes in five separate months. The only year to feature major hurricanes in four separate months was 2005, and many years have had major hurricanes in three separate months. This year's record-setting fivesome were Hurricane Bertha in July, Hurricane Gustav in August, Hurricane Ike in September, Hurricane Omar in October, and Hurricane Paloma in November.
Paloma is now the second strongest November hurricane on record in the Atlantic. Hurricane Lenny of 1999, a Category 4 hurricane with 155 mph winds, was the strongest November hurricane on record. Paloma shares second place with Hurricane Michelle of 2001 (Cat 4, 140 mph) and Hurricane Greta of 1956 (Cat 4, 140 mph).
He also says Cuba will break it up so much there's almost no chance of Paloma reaching landfall in the States. _________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
C'mon man, who're you gonna believe?
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