Oil's energy contribution has declined by about 12% since 1999. The world's economies have also declined by about 12%. (Using conventional metrics, which are time delayed determinations, this will only be seen in hind sight). The massive destruction of asset values now occurring testifies to it happening.
Peak is well behind us, world economies have peaked and will continue to decline.
Posted: Fri Sep 19, 2008 10:12 am Post subject: Re: SEC bans short-selling in US
Tyler_JC wrote:
Maybe I should have just sent a check directly to some fat cat's pocket. Because that's exactly what just happened.
Hmmm...yeah. I think we're at about $6 trillion on the bail outs. Divide by 300,000,000 Americans. Yeah. If you make the check out for $20,000, that should about cover your share. _________________ "We were standing on the edges
Of a thousand burning bridges
Sifting through the ashes every day
What we thought would never end
Now is nothing more than a memory
The way things were before
I lost my way" - OCMS
Posted: Fri Sep 19, 2008 11:08 am Post subject: Re: SEC bans short-selling in US
Tyler_JC wrote:
By the way, the SKF is currently frozen (read: worthless).
It is far from being worthless. There was a halt on trading and it was bid as low as $67 (or 50% off from yesterday) but resumed trading around $90... Now you could establish positions effectively risking 1/4 to make 3/4 playing that at the very least after initial advances financials would get back down to at least summer levels sometimes next year... I wanted to write options on shorter durations (Oct expiration that would happen after ban on shorting would expire), but it seems the market is pricing a sell off in financials... Oh well SDS looks more interesting as far as "the bottom would fall off in the absence of short sellers" goes...
Posted: Fri Sep 19, 2008 6:41 pm Post subject: Re: SEC bans short-selling in US
JohnDenver wrote:
Tyler_JC wrote:
JohnDenver wrote:
Tyler_JC wrote:
By the way, the SKF is currently frozen (read: worthless).
Along with every other short fund.
I have just been robbed of thousands of dollars by the US Treasury Department.
Cry me a river. Why don't you channel your energies into helping your country, instead of trying to profit in its hour of need?
Maybe I should have just sent a check directly to some fat cat's pocket.
Or maybe you should have earned the money for your dream home by a quaint practice that people in the old days used to engage in called "work".
Gotta love the 21st century. Now, even the speculators and market sharks are shouting populist slogans.
Gotta fight for your "Right to Gamble".
JD, you confuse me somewhat. Surely you aren't against the idea of an economic system based on common values and shared assumptions, you know the things that make a civilisation work? The markets are there to serve a useful purpose; that is price discovery. This insures sellers and buyers can receive fair value for their exchange without having to haggle the detail of every transaction. It's the most efficient mechanism for that purpose we've come up with. While there are far too many, whom have over the years tried to shoehorn "market economics" into areas it has no business, this does not get away from the utility markets bring.
This doesn't mean that the market is always right, indeed, markets can be very wrong when shared expectations are at odds with reality. In some cases this may mean intervention is necessary, or it may mean that market economics were perhaps not the ideal way to allocate resources in a given area (efficiency isn't always the primary criteon in all cases - this is a point some people would do well to consider). Over time markets work things out as long as the mechanisms to do so are unfettered, traders who see reality most clearly stand to gain as their reward, this isn't gambling.
What we have today in the equity markets isn't unfettered, and doesn't reward those with the clarity to see the truth. This is gambling (except for those with the inside knowedge), and it is this you are defacto supporting with your distain for those on this board who attempt to engage with the markets. Almost every member of this site is here to seek the truth; and attempt to understand and share what is happening; and going to happen in the world, if some have the foresight to and confidence to put their money where their mouths are who are you to disparage them? It doesn't mean they are ruthless Capitalists, who care nothing for anything else, though there are some of those here!
I would never consider myself a Capitalist, I think it makes for a lousy ideology, and has no place when it comes to deciding moral or ethical values, but markets are an important and useful tool within our economic system when they are allowed to perform their function, for better or worse.
Last edited by sjn on Fri Sep 19, 2008 10:17 pm; edited 2 times in total
Joined: May 26, 2008 Posts: 56 Location: north texas
Posted: Fri Sep 19, 2008 6:48 pm Post subject: Re: SEC bans short-selling in US
"Likewise. But I have to admit: I am seriously thinking about withdrawing all of my money out of the bank and cashing out my money market account today. I am -> <- this close to doing it, because I keep seeing signs that this is about to spread from the investment bank community to the commercial bank community.
Anyone have any thoughts either way?"
I am right on the edge myself these days. Called my financial advisor the other day who temporarily calmed my fears but after this rally I strangely feel like the government just took a step in the wrong direction. These drastic measures do not make me feel any better and that was their intention right? Apparently it made wallstreet all giddy but I spoke with my husband today about buying precious metals. I know almost nothing about the markets but my intuition tells me something just went terribly wrong and the time to act is short.
Posted: Fri Sep 19, 2008 6:58 pm Post subject: Re: SEC bans short-selling in US
JohnDenver wrote:
Or maybe you should have earned the money for your dream home by a quaint practice that people in the old days used to engage in called "work".
So making cautious calculated trades in the stock market with your own money based on the value of the companies using trading techniques that have been the bread and butter of the market for centuries, that's bad. Making wildly irrational gambles with a whole bunch of other people's money on convoluted real estate derivatives you just dreamed up...that is good and patriotic and when you go bust you should get to retire in Bermuda and the American public should happily provide trillions of dollars to bail you out?
That's a very "unique" outlook JD. _________________ "We were standing on the edges
Of a thousand burning bridges
Sifting through the ashes every day
What we thought would never end
Now is nothing more than a memory
The way things were before
I lost my way" - OCMS
Posted: Fri Sep 19, 2008 7:28 pm Post subject: Re: SEC bans short-selling in US
tex123 wrote:
but after this rally I strangely feel like the government just took a step in the wrong direction. These drastic measures do not make me feel any better and that was their intention right?
I was swamped at work today, so I couldn't review all of today's developments until now. Anyway, I just sat down and laid out my rationale to my wife, pretty much converging on the same logic as many folks on this thread:
-the market is about price discovery
-these banks were tanking for a reason
-while its convenient and fashionable to vilify short sellers, they keep a floor on the bottom
-short sellers had to cash out and put their money somewhere, and they knew that a bunch of other people had to do the same
-equities were pretty much pegged to go long in the short-term
-naturally, it makes sense to buy when you know everyone else will (i.e. the bubble mentality)
-all bubbles pop, and this one will too when this rush no longer has legs
-there will be a renewed rush to sell
-the decline will be even worse because there are no short sellers to dampen the decline this time
-financially, TSHTF
So, we've just moved our money market funds to our bank and are ready to withdraw everything on Monday morning.
Posted: Fri Sep 19, 2008 7:53 pm Post subject: Re: SEC bans short-selling in US
* except it's going to be "from each according to his ability." From those who have more, more will be taken. From those who have little, less will be taken.
smallpoxgirl wrote:
Tyler_JC wrote:
Maybe I should have just sent a check directly to some fat cat's pocket. Because that's exactly what just happened.
Hmmm...yeah. I think we're at about $6 trillion on the bail outs. Divide by 300,000,000 Americans. Yeah. If you make the check out for $20,000, that should about cover your share.
Posted: Fri Sep 19, 2008 8:04 pm Post subject: Re: SEC bans short-selling in US
If you can hold it in your hand, it's real.
Inflation is clearly outpacing interest and investment growth right now. The only reason to have money in a bank in that environment would be security and convenience of paying bills.
Since the security of deposits are now in question, the only remaining reason to use a bank is to be able to write checks to pay bills.
IMO, there's no good reason to have cash in a bank account right now. In fact, there are a lot of reasons NOT to keep your money in a bank right now.
If you need instant payments, pay with a credit card and pay your bill with a money order, and just pay it off every month.
I can't think of anything else - anyone have a good reason to have cash in a bank right now?
tex123 wrote:
"Likewise. But I have to admit: I am seriously thinking about withdrawing all of my money out of the bank and cashing out my money market account today. I am -> <- this close to doing it, because I keep seeing signs that this is about to spread from the investment bank community to the commercial bank community.
Anyone have any thoughts either way?"
I am right on the edge myself these days. Called my financial advisor the other day who temporarily calmed my fears but after this rally I strangely feel like the government just took a step in the wrong direction. These drastic measures do not make me feel any better and that was their intention right? Apparently it made wallstreet all giddy but I spoke with my husband today about buying precious metals. I know almost nothing about the markets but my intuition tells me something just went terribly wrong and the time to act is short.
Posted: Fri Sep 19, 2008 8:17 pm Post subject: Re: SEC bans short-selling in US
jbrovont wrote:
I can't think of anything else - anyone have a good reason to have cash in a bank right now?
My employees won't take a credit card.
Buying a money order every time you need to pay a bill sucks.
I definitely think it's smart at this point to have some cash on hand, but there are still really valid reasons to maintain a bank account. _________________ "We were standing on the edges
Of a thousand burning bridges
Sifting through the ashes every day
What we thought would never end
Now is nothing more than a memory
The way things were before
I lost my way" - OCMS
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