Oil's energy contribution has declined by about 12% since 1999. The world's economies have also declined by about 12%. (Using conventional metrics, which are time delayed determinations, this will only be seen in hind sight). The massive destruction of asset values now occurring testifies to it happening.
Peak is well behind us, world economies have peaked and will continue to decline.
The Crash of 2008, which is now wiping out trillions of dollars of our people's wealth, is, like the Crash of 1929, likely to mark the end of one era and the onset of another. The new era will see a more sober and much diminished America. The "Omnipower" and "Indispensable Nation" we heard about in all the hubris and braggadocio following our Cold War victory is history.
Seizing on the crisis, the left says we are witnessing the failure of market economics, a failure of conservatism. This is nonsense. What we are witnessing is the collapse of Gordon Gecko ("Greed Is Good!") capitalism. What we are witnessing is what happens to a prodigal nation that ignores history, and forgets and abandons the philosophy and principles that made it great.
A true conservative cherishes prudence and believes in fiscal responsibility, balanced budgets and a self-reliant republic. He believes in saving for retirement and a rainy day, in deferred gratification, in not buying on credit what you cannot afford, in living within your means. Is that really what got Wall Street and us into this mess — that we followed too religiously the gospel of Robert Taft and Russell Kirk?
"Government must save us!" cries the left, as ever. Yet, who got us into this mess if not the government — the Fed with its easy money, Bush with his profligate spending, and Congress and the SEC by liberating Wall Street and failing to step in and stop the drunken orgy?
For years, we Americans have spent more than we earned. We save nothing. Credit card debt, consumer debt, auto debt, mortgage debt, corporate debt — all are at record levels. And with pensions and savings being wiped out, much of that debt will never be repaid.
Our standard of living is inevitably going to fall. For foreigners will not forever buy our bonds or lend us more money if they rightly fear that they will be paid back, if at all, in cheaper dollars. We are going to have to learn to live again without our means.
The party's over...
Someone ought to take this opportunity to send Pat a copy of Heinberg's book.
Yesterday, I posted an interview with John Michael Greer, author of a new peak oil book called The Long Descent'. His thesis is basically that there will not be a sudden cataclysm; it will be more like "falling down stairs" over a long period of time.
Question is, how will America react and adapt once it recognizes that a precious past is forever lost? Go ahead and deny the contribution of invention and adaptation all you want -- innovation will necessarily accompany any tumble. And it remains to be seen how America will reinvent itself.
This is now a national disaster for the United States. The centrality and import of inexpensive and available credit to America's function is total...
...Well beyond the US's oft-discussed addiction to oil is its never-mentioned addiction to foreign credit. In 2007, America imported 49% of total global reported imported capital, the lowest US percentage in several years. Thus, our 25% reported share of oil consumption is much lower than our share in imported capital. We became addicted to debt - especially foreign debt - and that addiction becomes an illness in a credit constriction. Leading US banks and financial firms grew large and reaped huge profits writing, packaging, trading and rewriting, repackaging and retrading all that borrowed money. Thus, the boom created the bust.
To move forward we need coherent national policy from leading firms, regulatory agencies and pundits. We need to move forward toward lower debt, higher earnings and sustainable government spending. We need drastic and proactive reform of regulatory bodies.
Posted: Sat Sep 20, 2008 8:14 am Post subject: Re: Pat Buchanan - The Party's Over
Carlhole wrote:
Question is, how will America react and adapt once it recognizes that a precious past is forever lost? Go ahead and deny the contribution of invention and adaptation all you want -- innovation will necessarily accompany any tumble. And it remains to be seen how America will reinvent itself.
Or don't you believe in America?
The problem with reinventing of America may be one and simple: "lack of capital".
American wealth is grossly spent and no amount of FED's charade of clowns or creative accounting can address that. That implies ruin and societal regress aka Soviet collapse, if not much worst than that.
And no, there is no oil or other resources left to start equivalent of "Putin era". So the future is to become Mexico armed with nukes.
Posted: Sat Sep 20, 2008 8:16 am Post subject: Re: Pat Buchanan - The Party's Over
EnergyUnlimited wrote:
Carlhole wrote:
Question is, how will America react and adapt once it recognizes that a precious past is forever lost? Go ahead and deny the contribution of invention and adaptation all you want -- innovation will necessarily accompany any tumble. And it remains to be seen how America will reinvent itself. Or don't you believe in America?
The problem with reinventing of America may be one and simple: "lack of capital". American wealth is grossly spent and no amount of FED's charade of clowns or creative accounting can address that.
That implies ruin and societal regress aka Soviet collapse, if not much worst than that. And no, there is no oil or other resources left to start equivalent of "Putin era". So the future is to become Mexico armed with nukes.
Joined: Oct 06, 2006 Posts: 1371 Location: East Texas
Posted: Sat Sep 20, 2008 8:23 am Post subject: Re: Pat Buchanan - The Party's Over
Carlhole wrote:
So you don't believe in America? Doesn't anyone here believe in America?
I believe in America. Strongly. I do not believe in this recent orgy we've had over the last 20 years or so. _________________ Yes, we are. As we are.
And so shall we remain; Until the end.
Posted: Sat Sep 20, 2008 8:27 am Post subject: Re: Pat Buchanan - The Party's Over
Carlhole wrote:
So you don't believe in America? Doesn't anyone here believe in America?
Well, I am not American myself...
For last 7 years (from that unlucky 11 Sept 2001) I observe dramatic loss of credibility of US in area of international respect, on environmental front and now (quite unsurprisingly) economic collapse is onsetting.
All, what I might say is that G. W. Bush's administration have destroyed the America, which I have remember from the past. This last 7 years is a long stream of ultimately fatal mistakes.
Hey, don't be sad about that. With progress of time more prudent nations will also consume their wealth.
Last edited by EnergyUnlimited on Sat Sep 20, 2008 8:32 am; edited 2 times in total
Joined: Sep 14, 2004 Posts: 6626 Location: Rural Virginia
Posted: Sat Sep 20, 2008 8:28 am Post subject: Re: Pat Buchanan - The Party's Over
I believe in America, but what is America? Maybe America is the Constitution. That's what we have to get back to, if we ever can. _________________ "Actually, humans died out long ago."
---Abused, abandoned hunting dog
"Things have entered a stage where the only change that is possible is for things to get worse."
---Me and my brother
Posted: Sat Sep 20, 2008 8:28 am Post subject: Re: Pat Buchanan - The Party's Over
AgentR wrote:
Carlhole wrote:
So you don't believe in America? Doesn't anyone here believe in America?
I believe in America. Strongly. I do not believe in this recent orgy we've had over the last 20 years or os.
Probably America's most admirable cultural and historical trait has been its ability to foster incredible feats of creative innovation.
How do you reconcile Doomerism with the indomitable American spirit of invention? Seems to me that if you are a Doomer, you do not believe in America. _________________ "May you live in interesting times"
Posted: Sat Sep 20, 2008 8:31 am Post subject: Re: Pat Buchanan - The Party's Over
I still admire some things about America. If they draw the right lessons from this, they might recover in time. _________________ I play the cards I'm dealt, though I sometimes bluff.
Joined: Oct 06, 2006 Posts: 1371 Location: East Texas
Posted: Sat Sep 20, 2008 8:38 am Post subject: Re: Pat Buchanan - The Party's Over
Carlhole wrote:
AgentR wrote:
I believe in America. Strongly.
I do not believe in this recent orgy we've had over the last 20 years or os.
Probably America's most admirable cultural and historical trait has been its ability to foster incredible feats of creative innovation. How do you reconcile Doomerism with the indomitable American spirit of invention?
Invention and innovation persist, whether that is high dollar, high tech, bound to the spirit of gluttony; or the fast thinking, ingenious engineer who brings a town's first forge online after all our modern luxuries have been lost to the crash.
Quote:
Seems to me that if you are a Doomer, you do not believe in America.
Whether American craftsman are trying to become God and create entirely new life; or creating the first new steel rod in twenty years; it remains American innovation, spirit, and craftsmanship. _________________ Yes, we are. As we are.
And so shall we remain; Until the end.
Posted: Sat Sep 20, 2008 8:49 am Post subject: Re: Pat Buchanan - The Party's Over
It's the ultrarich who live all over the world that dont believe in America. wtf party are you talking about Pat Buchanan? I have worked hard for all I have, served in the Peace Corps because I believe in service to America, believe in the constitution and my fellow citizens and here I am approaching fifty with little savings and I see these people on TV who stole the national wealth, the national lands, give away the oil of my country to some multinational corporation for next to nothing, arm the rest of the world to the teeth. Is that whose party is ending? It sure aint my party, I wasnt invited even to pick up the garbage to use in my compost pile!
Posted: Sat Sep 20, 2008 9:05 am Post subject: Re: Pat Buchanan - The Party's Over
AgentR wrote:
Carlhole wrote:
AgentR wrote:
I believe in America. Strongly. I do not believe in this recent orgy we've had over the last 20 years or os.
Probably America's most admirable cultural and historical trait has been its ability to foster incredible feats of creative innovation. How do you reconcile Doomerism with the indomitable American spirit of invention?
Invention and innovation persist, whether that is high dollar, high tech, bound to the spirit of gluttony; or the fast thinking, ingenious engineer who brings a town's first forge online after all our modern luxuries have been lost to the crash.
Quote:
Seems to me that if you are a Doomer, you do not believe in America.
Whether American craftsman are trying to become God and create entirely new life; or creating the first new steel rod in twenty years; it remains American innovation, spirit, and craftsmanship.
There is nothing innovative about a forge. That's 18th century technology.
Articles like this one, have repeated endlessly that people must return to village life or tribal life. In other words, this vision rejects the great majority of great American innovations of the 20th century. This kind of Doomer vision counts as completely foregone the sort of continuing innovative thrust that American culture could possibly manifest in the approaching era of declining fossil fuels.
Personally, I think a return to tribal life is a non-starter without there first being a radical and dramatic population decrease. Because it is relatively dense population that creates the whole expectation of there being an entity called 'America' in the first place - along with our nation's dense composition of complex systems and inter-related institutions, and our general optimism and expectation that a bright national future can be achieved.
The true expression of a nation lies in the dynamic of its people - not in any paper document. Otherwise, whole cultures could be changed at the flick of a pen. American innovation and adaptation has been our proudest national trait for over two centuries. It's been especially so since the triumph of the "Greatest Generation" that Pat Buchanan mentioned.
Seems to me that those who advocate a return to tribal life simply do not believe in any sort of possibility of a triumphant cultural America because they do not believe in our most positive, fundamental identity.
Retrenching into the past seems to me to be a complete rejection of basic American character and ideals. It's not looking forward... it's looking backward.
Joined: Oct 06, 2006 Posts: 1371 Location: East Texas
Posted: Sat Sep 20, 2008 9:09 am Post subject: Re: Pat Buchanan - The Party's Over
[quote="Carlhole"]If this happens, America will have surely died.[/quote
America is not her toys. I think it is you that doesn't believe in America. _________________ Yes, we are. As we are.
And so shall we remain; Until the end.
Posted: Sat Sep 20, 2008 9:11 am Post subject: Re: Pat Buchanan - The Party's Over
AgentR wrote:
Carlhole wrote:
If this happens, America will have surely died.
America is not her toys. I think it is you that doesn't believe in America.
I'd love to hear your vision of America. And I really like your characterization of American innovation as a "toy". I'm sure Pat Buchanan would really love it too. _________________ "May you live in interesting times"
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