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Lanthanide
Heavy Crude
Joined: Nov 24, 2007
Posts: 140
Location: Christchurch, New Zealand
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 Posted: Tue Sep 09, 2008 7:16 pm Post subject: Re: Why is Peak Oil such a taboo topic? |
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| RonMN wrote: | | That all changed back to ridicule & laughter once Y2K ended up to be a non event. |
Actually that's interesting. You probably also know about 2038 problem, and for those who don't go here Wikipedia - Year 2038.
This adds a potentially interesting twist to the whole SHTF scenario where in the future we've got a decaying infrastructure but not the means or the knowledge to properly repair it. Many critical electronic systems could up and die on the 19th of January because the ability to alter the source code running the machines (I'm thinking embedded devices here, primarily) simply no longer exists due to all of the social termoil in the post-peak years. |
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ReverseEngineer
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Jul 16, 2008
Posts: 1741
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| Posted: Tue Sep 09, 2008 10:47 pm Post subject: Re: Why is Peak Oil such a taboo topic? |
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| Ludi wrote: |
I wouldn't be on your team even if you paid me.
I despise and abhor your attitude. |
Stop beating around the bush. Tell me what you REALLY think of me 
Does this mean the wedding is off?
Reverse Engineer |
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dinopello
Fusion
Joined: May 13, 2005
Posts: 3068
Location: The Urban Village
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| Posted: Tue Sep 09, 2008 11:11 pm Post subject: Re: Why is Peak Oil such a taboo topic? |
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| A lot of people I know understand and agree with the basics of peak oil. Some of those believe there is nothing that can be done about it and there is too much uncertainty about the timing and effects to do anything. Then some of those think it's crazy to talk about things you can't do anything about. |
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Cashmere
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Mar 27, 2008
Posts: 1971
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| Posted: Tue Sep 09, 2008 11:21 pm Post subject: Re: Why is Peak Oil such a taboo topic? |
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| ReverseEngineer wrote: | | Ludi wrote: |
I wouldn't be on your team even if you paid me.
I despise and abhor your attitude. |
Stop beating around the bush. Tell me what you REALLY think of me
Does this mean the wedding is off?
Reverse Engineer |
I think you'd have a better shot with one of Ludi's goats.
Large picture changed to link by wisconsin_cur
_________________
Massive Human Dieoff must occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where you live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group. |
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Maddog78
Heavy Crude
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Joined: Jul 14, 2008
Posts: 212
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| Posted: Sun Sep 14, 2008 12:54 pm Post subject: Re: Why is Peak Oil such a taboo topic? |
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| ROCKMAN wrote: | I’ll offer a perspective from the oil industry side of PO. Some of the small points might be a surprise. Most important, despite the statements from some of the industry “leaders” that seem contrary to what most here believe, PO is a very old subject in the oil patch. As the Dude and others already know, we’ve never called it “PO”….it was typically referred to as the “reserve replacement” issue. And it was never really discussed with any sense of alarm or panic. It was merely an adjustment in business plan for many companies especially newly forming ones. From the late 80’s through today perhaps as much effort and capital has been expended towards reserve acquisition through purchase (from individual wells all the way through corporate acquisitions). A very large percentage of companies (mostly public) were formed with the intent to acquire older fields from the bigger companies and redevelop opportunities that were considered to small for the current owners. Domestic exploration programs were still developed but were generally small in scale compared to 20 or 30 years prior. Growth of these new operations was based mostly on reworking old fields. There were some surprises along the way such as the Deep Water GOM trend and the recent rapid development of unconventional NG. But they players in those trends still represent a minority of oil/gas companies (although their capital expenditures are huge overall).
I’ve been a petroleum geologist for 33 years and until a few months ago, after discovering “Twilight in the Desert”, TOD and this website I didn’t really know there was any serious public discussion of PO going on. Even today there are no conversations between my coworkers about PO nor are they generally aware of discussions as we have here or elsewhere. Lots of different backgrounds bouncing in and out of our conversations but you might have noticed not to many from the E&P side of the business. It’s not so much a lack of concern over the consequencies of PO but maybe just simply the inevitable nature of the situation. Excluding the cheer leading CEO’s of corporate oil, look at who’s leading the public conversation: economists and a few politicians. Perhaps this unalarmed view of the future is also due in part to the repeated boom/bust cycles most of us old timers have lived through. Times for us are great right now. Then they’ll turn bad for a while and then good again, etc. I really don’t have any other explanation. Over the last 30+ years, prior to joining this merry band of brothers/sisters, I had exactly one conversation regarding “PO” per se. It was with my nephew about 20 years ago and dealt with the PO world his daughters would have to deal with by the time they were adults. At the time I just made a wild guess of 2020 for no particular reason.
The thoughtful conversations I see here do give me some hope for us to rationally deal with PO. But that only works as long as I ignore the probability that “we” are the great minority with little chance to change public attitudes in a constructive manner anytime soon. |
Good post, ROCKMAN. I'm a consulting drilling engineer. Have been for almost 30 yrs. now. The actual term "Peak Oil" is never used amongst my colleagues, just as you described.
I would also agree that the boom and bust cycles we've lived through has had the effect you've described. It was very difficult to make a living in this business in the busts of '86 and '98.
Now times are good and it's "make hay while the sun shines " |
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doodlebug2
Tar Sands
Joined: May 25, 2008
Posts: 52
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| Posted: Sun Sep 14, 2008 2:38 pm Post subject: Re: Why is Peak Oil such a taboo topic? |
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| My feeling is that people would not understand it. By this, I mean that being a citizen here (USA) we are always told we can have and do have everything. So when it is mentioned that the most important thing (oil) may not last , it is met with a "no way" attitude. People in the US think that can have and derserve it all so nobody will say it. Nobody can/will be the messenger. It would take courage for a POL to stand up and say we are eventually going to have less oil and we need to change out habits. |
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allenwrench
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Apr 23, 2008
Posts: 893
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| Posted: Mon Sep 15, 2008 12:37 pm Post subject: Re: Why is Peak Oil such a taboo topic? |
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| Interfector wrote: | | I'm just wondering what is the mentality behind it. You could say people don't like to talk of doom and gloom, but it seems like it's more than that. Peak Oil is being lumped in with whacko conspiracy theories, rather than being seen as a scientific fact, which it is, and hence there has been up to now little (or not enough) serious discussion of it, because doing so gets one labelled as a whacko doom monger. How has this situation come about? |
When I question media / politicians about why they hide their head in the sand when it comes to PO most have no reply. It seems they think there is 'no upside' in this topic of peak oil since it can't be fixed.
The upside is in the preparation and a more manageable and orderly transition...less deaths.
Then again, maybe the governments upside is in the deaths and having less mouths to have to feed?
Any problem that is 'too big' to talk about is one scary problem. |
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allenwrench
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Apr 23, 2008
Posts: 893
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| Posted: Mon Sep 15, 2008 12:39 pm Post subject: Re: Why is Peak Oil such a taboo topic? |
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| doodlebug2 wrote: | | My feeling is that people would not understand it. By this, I mean that being a citizen here (USA) we are always told we can have and do have everything. So when it is mentioned that the most important thing (oil) may not last , it is met with a "no way" attitude. People in the US think that can have and derserve it all so nobody will say it. Nobody can/will be the messenger. It would take courage for a POL to stand up and say we are eventually going to have less oil and we need to change out habits. |
...we can have and do have everything
Yep. To say or do otherwise puts a crimp on the American dream. |
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allenwrench
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Apr 23, 2008
Posts: 893
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| Posted: Mon Sep 15, 2008 12:47 pm Post subject: Re: Why is Peak Oil such a taboo topic? |
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| Ludi wrote: | | ReverseEngineer wrote: |
I would also put you on my team Ludi. |
I wouldn't be on your team even if you paid me.
I despise and abhor your attitude. |
No problem...as long as RE is allowed to keep his attitude and you are allowed to despise him - both can live another day.
I was recently run out of Organic Gardening forum for talking about PO and preps. For me I was not allowed to live. But as a survivalist I have may backups so just moved on to garden forum #2 or 3 or 4. |
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allenwrench
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Apr 23, 2008
Posts: 893
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| Posted: Mon Sep 15, 2008 12:51 pm Post subject: Re: Why is Peak Oil such a taboo topic? |
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| Nano wrote: | I think it is because being concerned about Peak Oil implies that one doesn't have faith in human ingenuity or human compassion when dealing with scarcity.
People who are concerned about Peak Oil are invariably Luddites and/or misanthropists. And everyone hates a Luddite or misanthropist. |
Another thing is media and gov are in bed together and PO is a $$ buster.
Can you imagine the pres admitted 'it looks like' we are finished? And the pubic finally got it?
It would raise hell with the Dow. |
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phaster
Heavy Crude
Joined: Jul 15, 2007
Posts: 200
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| Posted: Tue Sep 16, 2008 1:05 am Post subject: Re: Why is Peak Oil such a taboo topic? |
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IMHO Peak Oil isn't a taboo topic, its just one that isn't salatious or something the person on the street can relate to.
The biggest problem the human beings have with confronting very complex issues such as "Global Warming" and "Peak Oil" is that its not possible to associate blame to an individual or organization; because if an an individual or organization were the root cause of the problem it would be easier to portray them as pure evil!
Then of course ya have to realize that "Global Warming" and "Peak Oil" are concepts that have long term effects that don't make their "evil" presence know in a way people can relate to. For example gas prices might be going up because we know as peak oil occurs the supply of oil which eventually is refined into gas is going down, BUT to the average person at the pump they focus on the greedy gas station owner for raising prices.
I've been kinda pondering the peak oil topic myself trying to look at it from the perspective of how others view the subject,
http://phaster.com/_peak/pov_peak_oil.html
kinda curious what ya all think
| Interfector wrote: | | I'm just wondering what is the mentality behind it. You could say people don't like to talk of doom and gloom, but it seems like it's more than that. Peak Oil is being lumped in with whacko conspiracy theories, rather than being seen as a scientific fact, which it is, and hence there has been up to now little (or not enough) serious discussion of it, because doing so gets one labelled as a whacko doom monger. How has this situation come about? |
_________________
"I'm 100% sure that unsustainable conspicuous consumption of natural basic resources will eventually lead to a proverbial hell on earth for those people who get stuck with the mismanagement mess of mankind not being stewards of the environment!" |
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kam3Oen
Heavy Crude
Joined: Sep 09, 2007
Posts: 119
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| Posted: Sat Sep 20, 2008 9:07 pm Post subject: Re: Why is Peak Oil such a taboo topic? |
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| Quote: | | I don't discuss P.O. with anybody (except here)...why put myself in harms way? Y2K taught me this lesson well! |
Yah, discussing peak oil (and how to prep) with random people at work, or even with friends is probably not to smart, *** especially if you're planning on staying where you currently live post-peak. If you do, be prepared to have to kill them and their familes/friends when they come after your supplies. This may sound crazy, but after a few days of not eating, anything goes. If you've got a place in West Virginia you're going to f*ck off to days before the riots start, than feel free to clue your friends and neighbors in on "the secret", that they're sure to ignore. |
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thuja
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Oct 15, 2005
Posts: 1642
Location: Portland, Oregon
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| Posted: Sat Sep 20, 2008 10:35 pm Post subject: Re: Why is Peak Oil such a taboo topic? |
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| Lanthanide wrote: | | RonMN wrote: | | That all changed back to ridicule & laughter once Y2K ended up to be a non event. |
Actually that's interesting. You probably also know about 2038 problem, and for those who don't go here Wikipedia - Year 2038.
This adds a potentially interesting twist to the whole SHTF scenario where in the future we've got a decaying infrastructure but not the means or the knowledge to properly repair it. Many critical electronic systems could up and die on the 19th of January because the ability to alter the source code running the machines (I'm thinking embedded devices here, primarily) simply no longer exists due to all of the social termoil in the post-peak years. |
Hey you learn something new everyday. I'll be 67 on that day- my birthday! But no worries...I'll be retired and living in vast comfort sipping margaritas and rolling in my 401 K earnings at that point. Computer problems and Peak Oil? Bah! Such silliness... |
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karras
Tar Sands
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Joined: Jul 28, 2008
Posts: 23
Location: New York, NY
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| Posted: Sun Sep 21, 2008 8:51 pm Post subject: Re: Why is Peak Oil such a taboo topic? |
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| ReverseEngineer wrote: | To state what should be obvious, 99% of the population of human beings are INCREDIBLY stupid.
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I have to disagree on this one. I think the problem is more complicated. Yes, many people are very ignorant and tend to live in the moment. And people who should know better, like teachers and politicians, are among the very ignorant.
But I believe the problem is more fundamental. Think about this: How do most people predict the future? By looking to the past. This is our single biggest mistake as a society and as individuals. In the past, things have been cyclical. We have booms and busts. We believe that if things are bad, they will eventually get better, because that's how it has always been.
This view, although it is widely accepted as scientific and a best practice method of predicting the future, flies in the face of reality. Organizations that are supposedly reputable like the USGS predict that the world will be consuming more oil in coming decades than we do today. Simply because we have always consumed more than we consumed years ago.
Unfortunately, I don't think this flawed logic will change until it is too late. The majority of people will not believe this until it is undeniable that tomorrow's world will be vastly different than today's. |
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albente
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Aug 20, 2004
Posts: 1361
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| Posted: Fri Sep 26, 2008 4:12 pm Post subject: Re: Why is Peak Oil such a taboo topic? |
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It's rather that Peak Oil awareness is a playground for the rich.
We are dealing with a luxury item here. PO posters are fashion show models "of the other kind", models nevertheless.
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