Oil's energy contribution has declined by about 12% since 1999. The world's economies have also declined by about 12%. (Using conventional metrics, which are time delayed determinations, this will only be seen in hind sight). The massive destruction of asset values now occurring testifies to it happening.
Peak is well behind us, world economies have peaked and will continue to decline.
Posted: Sun Sep 21, 2008 12:48 pm Post subject: Re: Should I Move There?
Heineken,
Wow, that property is up in my neck of the woods. Watertown is a little over an hour drive for me. I don't know if you've ever been up this way previously, but the Adirondacks are beautiful place, a biological jewel. I have a lot of respect for the people who had the foresight and dedication to preserve it. I don't know if you'll fly in or drive, but I would recommend driving through the Park for part of your journey if you travel by car. I've spent a lot of time there over the years and could point you to some amazing spots. I will warn you though, if you do this you probably will want to move up here.
Haha, you know I take an above average interest in the trees so I'll mention some positives and negatives there.
Sixty acres is a good size in NY. Fifty acres is the magic number because that is the threshold size for getting enrolled into 480a. Its basically a tax law that is designed to help maintain large forested tracts of land by offering a partial exemption to property taxes.
The species you mentioned are high value hardwoods. I was surprised you didn't mention sugar maple as one of the species there, although if the land was harvested in the past a lot of it might have been taken out. If you do find a nice patch of them, you could make maple syrup! There are few aromas more pleasing than walking into a wood fired sugar shack going all out in the spring.
As for the ash, I'm afraid to say that in 10 years it will probably not be a component of that forest. The emeral ash borer has been inflicting near 100% mortality as it spreads. If you do buy the property, I would harvest it ASAP before the market gets flooded with salvaged ash. If they're not of mercantable size yet, you'll have plenty of high quality firewood.
One issue I haven't seen mentioned yet is acid deposition. In general, sandy soils are the most vulnerable to the more insidious effects of it, since they typically have little buffering capacity. The H+ ions in the preciptation tend to displace nutrient cations like K+, Ca+2, Mg+2 from negatively charged soil particles. I worry about this because if a lot of new coal plants are built, this problem could intensify. However, if the pond nearby is indeed well stocked with trout, which are generally sensitive to environmental degradation, I'm guessing that particular area must have something in the soil that is buffering the pH of the soil/runoff.
The remoteness from major population centers is a plus. The proximity to Ft. Drum is a minus. I actually took a field trip there last spring to see their forestry operations. After the 10th Mtn. Division got stationed there, the base become a pretty major hub for military operations. They have one of the largest runways on the continent there. Most of the activity and development is focused at the SW corner of the base. Certain areas of the 100,000 or so acres they have are used for training, but a lot of it is pseudo wilderness.
Ok, thats it for now. I'm sure I'll think of some other stuff. Glad to hear you're thinking about moving to the neighborhood.
Joined: Sep 08, 2005 Posts: 792 Location: Atlanta, GA
Posted: Sun Sep 21, 2008 1:23 pm Post subject: Re: Should I Move There?
Heineken wrote:
You guys are getting up my gumption to do it!
I love a woodstove on a cold day. So cozy. The problem where I am is I have to leave all the windows half open, since it's never quite cold enough for the woodstove to come into its full cozy glory.
I love snow when it is falling. I love studying its patterns and wading in and "monitoring" its accumulations.
I love walking a thickly furred dog (like the one I own) in the snow. Nothing like it. The fur and the snow sort of merge in a bounding, fuzzy sameness.
(Later on, when it turns into a crust that lingers and hinders, I don't like it as much.)
The cold is clean and clear and bluish. Like Sapphire gin.
There is wonderful clothing these days that handles the coldest weather. Flip through a Cabela's catalogue and see!
The comments about the beauty of the area are inspiring. Thanks Threadbear.
What a beautiful post, Heiny. You summed up what I love about snow and winter. I grew up in the Piedmont of North Carolina, back when we actually got some decent winters. My dad had a wood-burning stove put in the family room, and he'd keep that thing going all winter long. Gosh, I miss being around a wood-burning stove on a cold winter day.
Ahh...the snow. I treasured each snowfall like gold...you couldn't keep me inside to save my life...hehe. I'd go outside every few minutes to measure how deep it'd be getting, praying that it'd not stop or get too warm. And the morning after a big snow...don't even get me started on that... It's amazing how *blue* the sky is on a day like that..."blue northers" I call them.
I haven't been to the Adirondack area of New York yet, but I'd sure love to visit there soon...perhaps next summer I'll be able to do a road trip up that way. I'm partial to the Finger Lakes region, as well as the region bounded by Syracuse, Utica and Binghamton - but that's really just because that's the areas I've visited in person so far. I'd imagine the winters aren't quite as frigid as it would be further north, although we're only talking about one or 1.5 degrees of latitude or so.
Heineken, about your mother - I'd be real proud of her too, her being so accommodating of the idea of moving into a much colder climate. Can't be too many older women like her. (My mom thinks I'm crazy to want to move up north. )
Much thanks to everyone else that's contributed to this thread, as I'm eager to learn as much as I can as well about that area...I find all of this endlessly fascinating. _________________ Nowhere to run, nowhere to hide...
...and the meek shall inherit the Earth!
Posted: Sun Sep 21, 2008 2:17 pm Post subject: Re: Should I Move There?
Heineken wrote:
It's north of the lake-effect snowbelt. So the snow amounts are somewhat less, but the cold is reportedly severe.
Allow me to chime in. Check the lake effect snows again. I spent lots of time in the Adirondacks and saw some real snow blizzards up there. Some with near zero visibility. Watch here:
lake effect snow storm
It gets very cold. If you never spent time in -20 degree weather you will find out soon enough how it feels when your bones get cold.
I don't mean to talk you out of it, if I had the money I would definitely go for it. Maybe you can spend your winters in VA and drive up to NY in the summers. Just a thought.
Posted: Sun Sep 21, 2008 2:42 pm Post subject: Re: Should I Move There?
There is definitely the possibility to catch some serious lake effect snow in that general area. The worst of it is south of there, in the Tug Hill area. That would be a hard area to live in.
Joined: Sep 14, 2004 Posts: 6627 Location: Rural Virginia
Posted: Sun Sep 21, 2008 3:12 pm Post subject: Re: Should I Move There?
My understanding (incorrect perhaps) is that the lake effect does not generally include the Adirondack region, although exceptions occur from time to time.
I'm so grateful to all of you for your intelligent, gracious, and indeed graceful commentary. We have such a fantastic group here, it's no wonder we come back so often (too often---addictively as it were).
Aunticipation is so right---one view of the place could change my mind to black in an instant. Maybe there's a huge radio tower right next to the property.
I'll let you all know what happens . . . including nothing at all.
Sometimes we have to dream. Dreams are like the exotic frames around the photos of our real lives.
In my mind, I keep going back to Patience's initial post on this thread. Do I really need this heap o' trouble in the midst of the greatest economic crisis since the Great Depression? If I'm feeling so much stress just considering this change, isn't that a warning sign I should heed?
Also: Is it a good idea to drag my old mother into the wilds of the Adirondacks? Also to separate her from being able to visit my dad at the VA nursing facility in Richmond? And to leave my dad lying there for his remaining time with very few visits from his family? And to force my companion to give up his job? Isn't that selfish of me?
Plan B is to let natural events play out with my mother (who's 81), and then when I and my companion are truly free we could sell and go anywhere. Even to the Northwest. It would be best to sell everything and then just go looking, living out of motels if necessary. But whether I will be physically able to do plan B or whether the world then existing will accommodate it are questions that loom large. Peak Oil and the Great Warming force all of us to do advance planning and make changes that not long ago would have looked ridiculous.
I am fond of my tree farm and would not like to let it go so soon after buying it. No, I can't keep it AND go to live in upstate New York, Auntie and Consensi. The distance is too massive, for me anyway.
If only it wasn't so hellaciously hot (and generally dry) here. It's odd that I'm having this spasm just as the summer heat is ending and I can look forward to a glorious autumn that starts now and lasts until next May. But I have this feeling, "Well, I've survived another central Virginia summer; how many more do I have IN me??"
Plan C is to stay here, hunker down as possible, and die here. Ludi's plan. _________________ "Actually, humans died out long ago."
---Abused, abandoned hunting dog
"Things have entered a stage where the only change that is possible is for things to get worse."
---Me and my brother
Joined: Feb 09, 2006 Posts: 417 Location: Venezuela
Posted: Sun Sep 21, 2008 10:32 pm Post subject: Re: Should I Move There?
Heineken,
Why don't you just do what I do with a tough decision? I toss a coin and if I'm not pleased with the result, then I know which answer is right for me.
Seriously, it is a tough decision though one I'm sure you'll make wisely.
My only advice would be that you really have to see the place firsthand before making a commitment. The human mind is capable of painting some beautiful pictures but sometimes once we see a place we've been dreaming of it turns out not to be what we'd envisioned.
Another thought that comes to mind are your plans for any timber on the place. I ask because if it's your intention to sell timber from time to time, be aware that timber growth in the far north is much different than in the South.
I've hunted the same region of Manitoba for 5 years now and the timber appears not to have changed a bit! And one area that I hunt was burned over 20 years ago and the trees are about 15 feet tall. In Mississippi, where I've also hunted for many years, we get 15 feet of growth in about 4 years!
Joined: Sep 14, 2004 Posts: 6627 Location: Rural Virginia
Posted: Mon Sep 22, 2008 6:31 am Post subject: Re: Should I Move There?
vtsnowedin wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:
Moving snow can get old.http://s156.photobucket.com/albums/t5/warrenl_bucket/?action=view¤t=DSCN0367-1.jpg
Thats better ,I finally remembered how to post a pic.
Thanks, Vermont. I definitely get the idea.
Would you believe it sometimes used to snow that way where I am? _________________ "Actually, humans died out long ago."
---Abused, abandoned hunting dog
"Things have entered a stage where the only change that is possible is for things to get worse."
---Me and my brother
Joined: Sep 14, 2004 Posts: 6627 Location: Rural Virginia
Posted: Mon Sep 22, 2008 6:45 am Post subject: Re: Should I Move There?
cudabachi wrote:
Heineken,
Why don't you just do what I do with a tough decision? I toss a coin and if I'm not pleased with the result, then I know which answer is right for me.
Seriously, it is a tough decision though one I'm sure you'll make wisely.
My only advice would be that you really have to see the place firsthand before making a commitment. The human mind is capable of painting some beautiful pictures but sometimes once we see a place we've been dreaming of it turns out not to be what we'd envisioned.
Another thought that comes to mind are your plans for any timber on the place. I ask because if it's your intention to sell timber from time to time, be aware that timber growth in the far north is much different than in the South.
I've hunted the same region of Manitoba for 5 years now and the timber appears not to have changed a bit! And one area that I hunt was burned over 20 years ago and the trees are about 15 feet tall. In Mississippi, where I've also hunted for many years, we get 15 feet of growth in about 4 years!
Good luck and do keep us posted.
Thanks for your comments, Cudabachi. Naturally I agree that I should see the place before making any emotional investment in the idea. That doesn't, however, preclude examining the feasibility of the idea should the place check out favorably on actual inspection. It's a considerable trip up there and back; I would just go there on a whim.
If I went there and liked it, I might put down a deposit. Golly, then I'm done for.
My understanding from the owner is that the timber there is about 10 years away from the next profitable cut. If I lived there I doubt if I'd do any but the most selective logging. Knowing me I'd probably do a conservation easement instead and get into that program Bromius mentioned.
Yes, the growing season is short up there and trees pack on the weight slowly! _________________ "Actually, humans died out long ago."
---Abused, abandoned hunting dog
"Things have entered a stage where the only change that is possible is for things to get worse."
---Me and my brother
Joined: Sep 08, 2005 Posts: 792 Location: Atlanta, GA
Posted: Mon Sep 22, 2008 7:35 am Post subject: Re: Should I Move There?
So when will you decide about taking a trip up there or not? Just don't bring your checkbook with ya...lol.
But seriously, taking such a field trip now would be very educational and helpful for making the decision as to whether such a move would be worthwhile for your personal situation. Nothing like getting a "feel" of a place in person. In my case (when I did a scouting trip in '04), I knew I wanted to live up there someday, but I chose the "Plan B" option...putting it off into the future when I know I can feel more confident about moving up there.
About the snow, I can remember some one-foot plus snows back in the 80's when I lived in North Carolina...man, that was plain fun! It's when I learned how to drive in heavy, unplowed snow with my 4WD. I even played taxi for some of my mom's nursing friends in one of those "southern blizzards." Just thinking about snow is making me itchy about moving north.
If only we had global cooling instead of global warming...I could just stay put here and wait for the snows to come to me...hehe.
Anyhow, I know you'll be keeping us posted whatever you do decide. I'm just the impatient sort, is all...lol. _________________ Nowhere to run, nowhere to hide...
...and the meek shall inherit the Earth!
Joined: Sep 14, 2004 Posts: 6627 Location: Rural Virginia
Posted: Mon Sep 22, 2008 8:11 am Post subject: Re: Should I Move There?
My obsession is related more to that particular property than to the idea of going north, Byron. For me the big pond is the whole thing. 16 acres of it. Imagine that.
I'll let you know if I look at the place! _________________ "Actually, humans died out long ago."
---Abused, abandoned hunting dog
"Things have entered a stage where the only change that is possible is for things to get worse."
---Me and my brother
Joined: Sep 08, 2005 Posts: 792 Location: Atlanta, GA
Posted: Mon Sep 22, 2008 8:30 am Post subject: Re: Should I Move There?
Heineken wrote:
My obsession is related more to that particular property than to the idea of going north, Byron. For me the big pond is the whole thing. 16 acres of it. Imagine that.
Oh yes, I can imagine that plenty. Having a little john-boat out there, paddling around, casting that rod...
Yeah, I can imagine that just fine. _________________ Nowhere to run, nowhere to hide...
...and the meek shall inherit the Earth!
Joined: Sep 09, 2004 Posts: 421 Location: Upstate New York, U.S.A.
Posted: Mon Sep 22, 2008 9:14 am Post subject: Re: Should I Move There?
I'm south of there as you know Heineken, smack in the middle of the lake effect snow region. the snow can be rough, and the winters can be brutally cold; but if you're well prepared, it is a wonderful place to live.
New York State does have some truly fantastic habitat and natural places. It is sometimes stunning to me how much of the state is undeveloped.
I just spent a great weekend in the Allegany State Park and Letchworth State Park.
Follow your instincts and be prepared for some hard work, as I am sure you are.
Olafr _________________ "I went to the woods because I wished to live deliberately, to front only the essential facts of life, and see if I could not learn what it had to teach, and not, when I came to die, discover that I had not lived." - Henry David Thoreau
Joined: Sep 14, 2004 Posts: 6627 Location: Rural Virginia
Posted: Mon Sep 22, 2008 11:43 am Post subject: Re: Should I Move There?
Thanks for your insights, Olaf. I was hoping we'd hear from you.
I am sure used to hard work. E.g., I dug out a 30,000-gallon pond by hand, and built an 8,000-pound dam of concrete and packed clay. I've built chicken coops and put in miles of trails. If I can do that sort of stuff, I'm sure I can shovel snow.
I was just talking with my mom some more about the situation. Our biggest concern seems to keep returning to the liquidation of our two Virginia properties. It's hard to "throw away" your life's work. But it's possible that if we waited till next year, or the year after that, they'd be worth even less. The economic situation seems to have no bottom, and that has me thinking the "D" word. _________________ "Actually, humans died out long ago."
---Abused, abandoned hunting dog
"Things have entered a stage where the only change that is possible is for things to get worse."
---Me and my brother
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