Oil's energy contribution has declined by about 12% since 1999. The world's economies have also declined by about 12%. (Using conventional metrics, which are time delayed determinations, this will only be seen in hind sight). The massive destruction of asset values now occurring testifies to it happening.
Peak is well behind us, world economies have peaked and will continue to decline.
FAREWELL DIEOFF.ORG
Jay Hanson 01/12/03
I am turning the dieoff website over to the moderator of the "energyresources" mailing list -- a fellow named Tom Robertson t1r@bellatlantic.net. If you are so inclined, Tom could make use of any support you could give him to keep the dieoff web site going.
I would like to bid you all farewell and present a brief synopsis of my work over the last ten years or so. Like everything else, it's all very simple when you really understand it. Unfortunately, I doubt that more than a few hundred people worldwide (perhaps far less) would be able to really understand the issues I raise in this paper. Probably no more than one or two who actually receive this mailing will really understand it -- for reasons I will attempt to explain...
SYNOPSIS
--------
I developed an interest in "sustainability" about fifteen years ago when it became clear to me that our present economic system was totally unsustainable and self-destructive. It seemed little more than a well-organized method for converting natural resources into garbage. I studied modern economic theory on the assumption that our political leaders would work to change the flaws once I was able to point them out.
I became aware that something was fundamentally wrong in our political system when I ran for public office. The more I studied politics, the more bizarre it looked. I finally realized it wasn't anything like the "democracy" it claimed to be. It turns out that America is actually a stealth plutocracy http://www.dieoff.org/page168.htm !
Working full-time for more than a decade, I studied it all: the history of our so-called "democracy", the fundamentals and history of modern economics, sociology, cybernetics, system theory, biology, ecology, microbiology, evolution theory, physics, and so on.
After several years of research, I concluded that little -- if any -- of the so-called "social sciences" (including economics) taught in our universities had anything relevant to say about the real world. Instead of discovering facts and principles, most social science is little more than a program designed to "rationalize" (invent socially-acceptable excuses for) the current plutocracy. Moreover, I was astonished to find that the global economy is based upon Catholic religious dogma that I was able to trace back to St. Thomas http://www.dieoff.com/page243.htm ! Eventually I discarded social science altogether because it had absolutely nothing worthwhile to say about sustainability.
By placing the results of my research in order of importance for sustainability, I can simplify over ten years' work down to two sets of physical "laws". These laws place harsh limits on what is possible for us: #1 ENERGY LAWS, and #2 BIOLOGICAL EVOLUTION LAWS. For purposes of sustainability, nothing else matters.
#1 ENERGY LAWS
--------------
Once I was able to understand Odum's "eMergy" metric (actually very simple, but difficult for old minds), I realized there are only three relevant principles concerning energy: the First Law of thermodynamics (no creation), the Second Law (always a loss), and the "Net eMergy" principle ("net energy" converted for "quality") http://www.dieoff.org/synopsis.htm .
Once one understands the three simple principles outlined in the paragraph above, then one understands that the only way our society could actually be "sustainable" would be to continuously reduce our aggregate energy footprint -- less consumption AND less people -- until the global population level is back to a couple-a-hundred-million people swinging through the trees. This is also Georgescu-Roegen's conclusion http://www.dieoff.org/page148.htm . That's the easy part...
With great reluctance (because it has worked so well for me), I was forced to conclude that our present system of capitalism is incompatible with energy laws and can never be sustainable. My only hope was that some new form of sustainable society might be possible. So I began studying human nature, intending to discover what kinds of sustainable societies might work...
#2 BIOLOGICAL EVOLUTION LAWS
----------------------------
Human nature is much more difficult to understand than energy laws for two main reasons: it's not taught, and we are genetically biased against self-knowledge. In other words, teaching human nature to someone is something like teaching a dog not to bark http://www.dieoff.com/page193.htm .
I will reduce several years' research on human nature down to the essentials: A COMPUTER ANALOG, and A SOCIAL PRINCIPLE. For purposes of sustainability, everything else about human nature can be ignored -- it simply doesn't matter.
a. A COMPUTER ANALOG
-------------
Computer software cannot function before it is enabled by the hardware. In other words, functioning hardware MUST precede functioning software.
Human thought is analogous to computer software. Any particular thought (software) cannot precede the neurons, dendrites, neurotransmitters, etc (hardware) that make that specific thought possible. Like all computers, human hardware is the physical prerequisite to human software -- but that's where the similarity with everyday computers ends.
Human brains are much different than the stored-program, digital, binary, single processor PCs we use every day. Instead, human brains are wired (not stored-program), analog (not digital, not binary), multiprocessor (not single processor) "state machines" (program logic may permanently modify itself depending upon the data). A human cannot have a specific thought unless it has been enabled by earlier brain "wiring" (e.g., pre-programmed, formal education, reflection, critical thinking). Moreover, older brains are much harder to "wire" than younger brains.
Brains are mostly hardwired by age 25. By middle age, people may need two or three years of hard work to understand something completely new (grow the brain hardware required to think the thought).
The human brain comes from the factory with a set of empirically designed pre-programs that have historically (over a billion years) tended to maximize "inclusive fitness". One of these pre-programs was specifically designed to inhibit self-knowledge with respect to social issues. By remaining unaware of our true motives, we are much more effective at deceiving others. We evolved this way because the more convincing liar has the advantage in sexual competition (e.g., Bill Clinton).
In short, people cannot think a thought unless the brain has been previously "wired" to think it. This is why civilization after civilization runs out of energy and collapses http://dieoff.com/page134.htm . This is also why we are presently running out of energy and hell-bent for collapse.
Contrary to the received wisdom, people do not think and then act. They act and then rationalize. New data from the environment is routinely plugged into existing mental hardware (like entering a number into a spreadsheet), which is then followed by an appropriate thought. Since people have no wiring for "peak in oil and gas production", news of the present energy crisis cannot generate the appropriate thought. Only prolonged reflection can grow the required mental hardware to place this critical piece of news in perspective. Unfortunately, only a few people can invest the thousands-and-thousands of hours necessary to see both the energy and evolutionary aspects of the human condition clearly.
b. A SOCIAL PRINCIPLE
-----------------------
Individuals come from the factory pre-programmed to seek inclusive fitness in ways that have actually worked in the past. In modern society, economic growth serves as a proxy for increasing fitness. This is why we "feel good" when we make money, buy a new SUV, and so on. Unfortunately, when our pre-program determines that inclusive fitness is best served by violating social norms, we will violate those norms and seek a fitness advantage. This explains the higher crime rates in our lower income populations and why nations go to war.
Societies can remain reasonably stable as long as their economies continue to grow -- continue to serve inclusive fitness for the majority. But when economic growth becomes physically impossible -- as it must -- societies will disintegrate into anarchy and war, as individuals and groups seek advantage.
CONCLUSION
----------
Once one understands the three simple energy principles outlined in this paper, then one understands that the only way our society could be actually be "sustainable", would be to continuously reduce our aggregate energy footprint. Put differently, energy laws will force us to continuously reduce our aggregate footprint whether we choose to or not.
Once one understands human nature as outlined in this paper, then one also understands that continued social stability requires us to continuously INCREASE energy use, which we now know is impossible! It should not come as a surprise that we have been pre-programmed to overshoot and crash just like other animals http://www.dieoff.org/page80.htm .
There are absolutely no humane solutions available to the ruling elite because it is impossible to solve the problem of human corruption (i.e., the genetic pre-program to violate norms and seek advantage). Unfortunately, the best the poor can hope for is a painless death.
Since human nature is so terribly difficult to understand (I needed about five years), I am willing to participate in a moderated discussion group to explain the contents of this paper -- providing enough people are interested -- and someone volunteers to do the moderating. There will be no "political" discussions on the list. Go somewhere else if you want to talk politics.
It will be a few weeks before I can get the list started. Send a note to me at j@qmail.com if you are interested. Be sure the word "farewell" is in the title of your email so I won't delete it as spam. (I use a "white list" spam filter.)
Posted: Tue Sep 23, 2008 8:51 am Post subject: Re: Jay Hanson had it right...a long time ago...a farewell..
Nice writing. _________________ Massive Human Dieoff must occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where you live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
Posted: Tue Sep 23, 2008 9:52 am Post subject: Re: Jay Hanson had it right...a long time ago...a farewell..
Yes...a very good summery of the current conditions. Some folks will classify it as the ultimate doomer prediction. But if you accept the basic premise it goes a long way to explaining Iraq, strategic missile defenses, a SPR earmarked for the military, etc.
It's not difficult to see the same reactions in previous economic/resource wars (Germany and Japan were both pushed towards military action as a result of economic restrictions.) And WWII only cost around 120 million lives if I recall correctly. But we weren't nearly as efficient in killing back then as we are now.
We can all take actions which impact our immediate sphere of influence. But global responses are, IMO, out of our control at best. At worse, the populace will support, if not demand, a military solution. Despite the human suffering involved in the process, war has always been a fairly efficient mechanism of change. I see no reason to expect that sad fact to change.
Posted: Tue Sep 23, 2008 10:27 am Post subject: Re: Jay Hanson had it right...a long time ago...a farewell..
Wow, that so-called "white paper" has more whoppers than your average Burger King. My favorite one:
Quote:
In short, people cannot think a thought unless the brain has been previously "wired" to think it.
What an utterly nonsensical premise. Regardless, I love how its used to jump to the following collusion:
Quote:
This is why civilization after civilization runs out of energy and collapses http://dieoff.com/page134.htm . This is also why we are presently running out of energy and hell-bent for collapse.
Does anyone actually buy this kind of pseudoscientific tripe?
Posted: Tue Sep 23, 2008 11:01 am Post subject: Re: Jay Hanson had it right...a long time ago...a farewell..
Quote:
Does anyone actually buy this kind of pseudoscientific tripe?
Having done more than a little research myself on some of the same questions I completely understand Jay's conclusions and I place a high value on the quantity and quality of the research he is able to produce to back them up.
Your opinion, on the other hand, clearly took little more than five seconds of typing effort and no discernable thought process whatsoever to produce. As such, I value it only slightly less than a toad farting on a keyboard.
Joined: Apr 06, 2006 Posts: 3626 Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
Posted: Tue Sep 23, 2008 11:13 am Post subject: Re: Jay Hanson had it right...a long time ago...a farewell..
It's still there: DIE OFF - a population crash resource page. First place I ever read about peak oil, about 6 years ago; had to stop after a while, Jay doesn't let up on harshing your buzz! After reading some of his papers the Long Emergency seemed quite sunshiny. _________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
C'mon man, who're you gonna believe?
Joined: Aug 03, 2006 Posts: 4338 Location: Graceland
Posted: Tue Sep 23, 2008 1:58 pm Post subject: Re: Jay Hanson had it right...a long time ago...a farewell..
I love the bit about people being hardwired against knowledge of human nature in order to increase their effectiveness as liars in order to gain advantage.
What a beautiful piece of doomer thinking.
It's not even cynical--it's like doom in a vacuum.
When someone says "people are bad", there is almost a hint of optimism in the statement, like pointing this out might lead to some sort of improvement.
But when you don't even bother to make any judgment about people, when you simply describe what you see--that we are fiendishly clever, and yet we have large blind spots in our cognitive abilities that will ultimately be our undoing--there is something almost refreshing about that.
It's like "AHA! I knew I was neither good nor bad, but somehow just put together without a good long term plan."
But then again, if I was really smart maybe I would do what a lot of people do and just live for today and resist the temptation to think about the colossal mess we are making for ourselves, our descendants and the rest of the creatures we share this planet with.
I'm sure that the cockroaches and rats are not bothered by the fact that they are in overshoot just like us.
It's sort of like the comment about "the only thing better than having a boat is having a buddy with a boat." Maybe the cockroaches and rats are like our buddies if you substituted a gratuitously large brain and opposable thumbs for the boat. _________________
Posted: Tue Sep 23, 2008 2:19 pm Post subject: Re: Jay Hanson had it right...a long time ago...a farewell..
Though my mom is grossed out by them, we have a few roaches and crickets and other insects that share our home. For some reason, it's always enjoyable to see a roach scurrying down the hallway in the opposite direction, no doubt as aware of me as I am of them, on some similarly unknown mission.
We have very little idea where all of this is going, but it sure is amazing how it's getting there.
Posted: Tue Sep 23, 2008 2:23 pm Post subject: Re: Jay Hanson had it right...a long time ago...a farewell..
Captain_Meh wrote:
Wow, that so-called "white paper" has more whoppers than your average Burger King. My favorite one:
Quote:
In short, people cannot think a thought unless the brain has been previously "wired" to think it.
What an utterly nonsensical premise.
Really?
So what do you attribute thoughts to? Magic?
If you believe that thoughts are part of a soul, then your claim that his thought is pseudoscientific, of course, loses merit.
If you don't believe that thoughts are only possible because neurons that are already connected together send signals, then I'd love to hear your version of how the brain works.
If you're intelligent and reasonable, you'll think about my post and then retract your comment as, in actuality, being the "nonsensical" one based on magic or religion or some other non-scientific basis. _________________ Massive Human Dieoff must occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where you live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
Posted: Tue Sep 23, 2008 2:26 pm Post subject: Re: Jay Hanson had it right...a long time ago...a farewell..
BigTex wrote:
I love the bit about people being hardwired against knowledge of human nature in order to increase their effectiveness as liars in order to gain advantage.
Actually, my favorite part. It's quite brilliant, and I agree completely. Nice to actually read a new thought. _________________ Massive Human Dieoff must occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where you live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
Posted: Tue Sep 23, 2008 2:46 pm Post subject: Re: Jay Hanson had it right...a long time ago...a farewell..
Ah...but Cashmere is it really a new thought? Or was in there inside of a tiny one-celled creature during the Cambrian Period but just wasn't able to be expressed until now.
I really do enjoy the way you slap folks up side the head with that big rationality stick of yours.
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What an utterly nonsensical premise. Regardless, I love how its used to jump to the following collusion:
