Oil's energy contribution has declined by about 12% since 1999. The world's economies have also declined by about 12%. (Using conventional metrics, which are time delayed determinations, this will only be seen in hind sight). The massive destruction of asset values now occurring testifies to it happening.
Peak is well behind us, world economies have peaked and will continue to decline.
PO is really a US driving problem, since it is the overconsumption by the US that is driving the issue.
It's interesting that we agree on this point. In that context, I'm curious what precisely you mean when you talk about "solving PO". What exactly constitutes a solution in your mind?
Personally, I don't see any impediment to solving the US driving problem entirely by conservation. Even today, a huge impact could be made by, for example:
1) Jamming people into existing vehicles by mandatory car pooling
2) Shopping-pooling (i.e. one person shopping for multiple households)
3) Telecommuting/Telepresence in all cases where it is possible
That's a huge chunk of oil right there, and it doesn't involve any large investment. So I don't buy into the Hirsch idea that we need 20 years and massive investment to prepare. Hirsch is operating under the assumption that we must maintain car culture business-as-usual. He devotes no attention whatsoever to conservation or changes in lifestyle. _________________ Thinking outside the petri dish.
Personally, I don't see any impediment to solving the US driving problem entirely by conservation. Even today, a huge impact could be made by, for example:
1) Jamming people into existing vehicles by mandatory car pooling
2) Shopping-pooling (i.e. one person shopping for multiple households)
3) Telecommuting/Telepresence in all cases where it is possible
Even if the above listed conservations measures do the trick, the problem is, all of the above would require gov't legislation. In my opinion, there's zero chance of getting that type of legislation passed, thus, I'm a pessimist.
I therefore subscribe to Michael Klare's opinion that PO will be solved by the world through resource wars. In wars, Marshall law could be declared by the President which would mandate the above conservation measures.
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