Oil's energy contribution has declined by about 12% since 1999. The world's economies have also declined by about 12%. (Using conventional metrics, which are time delayed determinations, this will only be seen in hind sight). The massive destruction of asset values now occurring testifies to it happening.
Peak is well behind us, world economies have peaked and will continue to decline.
Joined: Sep 17, 2006 Posts: 719 Location: No man's land
Posted: Tue Sep 23, 2008 6:18 pm Post subject: Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived
Cabrone wrote:
The people really have no idea what's coming towards them.
There is a movie available at Blockbuster now called "The Last Winter"...the story line essentially mirrors the scenario outlined in this thread... _________________ "It is no measure of health to be deemed sane in an insane society" J. Krishnamurti
Joined: May 27, 2007 Posts: 1775 Location: The Post Peak Oil Historian
Posted: Tue Sep 23, 2008 9:52 pm Post subject: Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived
One mistake made in the Independence article is common among journalists. Methane is actually over 100 times as potent as CO2 in the first year after it's release and 72 times as potent over 20 years. The 20 times number is over a 100 yr time period. Actually the warming is very dramatic at the front end, within the first few years after release. _________________ In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act. - George Orwell
It riles them to believe that you perceive the webs they weave. - Moody Blues
Joined: May 27, 2007 Posts: 1775 Location: The Post Peak Oil Historian
Posted: Tue Sep 23, 2008 10:33 pm Post subject: Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived
The total area of submarine permafrost within the Siberian Arctic shelf is estimated to be more than one and half million square kilometers. Amount of methane hydrate deposited beneath and/or within submarine relic permafrost is estimated to be at least 540 Gt. Amount of free gas, accumulated beneath the hydrate deposits, is expected to be about 2/3 of the amount of hydrates or 360 Gt. Additionally as much as 500 Gt of carbon could be stored within as minimum as a 25 m-thick permafrost body of this type. The total value of ESS carbon pool is, thus, not less than 1,400 Gt of carbon.
...we consider release of up to 50 Gt of predicted amount of hydrate storage as highly possible for abrupt release at any time. That may cause 12-times increase of modern atmospheric methane burden with consequent catastrophic greenhouse warming.
link
To put the scale of this in perspective:
The quantity degassed to the atmosphere 15,000 years ago, at the end of the last ice age is now believed to be around 4 GtC as methane or 0.04%. The average temperature of the Earth increased from 30°F to 60°F within a few decades.
This is not even in the ballpark of what is happening now. 4 GtC is insignificant compared to what we now face.
I think this is probably the best End of the World theme song, feel free to suggest your favorite. Dust in the Wind
We still have a little time left before the robust lady finishes her number. I think I will look at this as the last good Christmas though.
It really is sad, when it finally sinks in that it's actually over; the whole glorious span of human civilization and all it's works. _________________ In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act. - George Orwell
It riles them to believe that you perceive the webs they weave. - Moody Blues
Joined: May 27, 2007 Posts: 1775 Location: The Post Peak Oil Historian
Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2008 1:01 am Post subject: Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived
Yes, Greg. It's the end of the world, happening right now.
I've been reporting on this for a long time now. Yet, now that it's here, unequivocally, undeniably, I'm having a hard time getting it to sink in.
We are all dead within a few years. Why does this not seem real?
We now have all the evidence we need to be certain. Why won't it register?
I guess, because I will wake up tomorrow and be able to go to the store and everyone will be going about their business totally oblivious.
I got drunk tonight, I think I'll get smashed tomorrow. _________________ In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act. - George Orwell
It riles them to believe that you perceive the webs they weave. - Moody Blues
Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2008 2:06 am Post subject: Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived
Hi Cid,
It is not quite the end yet.
Several million tons of methane released is a real worry. We could always ask for a volunteer to go and light the methane bubbles. Sure it would be a one way trip to eternity but hey others die with bombs strapped to their bodies.
Maybe we could recruit an army of true believers, give them a few matches, a inflatable low cost dingy, two wooden oars and get them to row out into the maelstrom of methane bubbles and light the match.
Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2008 2:49 am Post subject: Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived
Cid_Yama wrote,
Quote:
I got drunk tonight, I think I'll get smashed tomorrow.
I hear you. And to think some people say getting drunk never helps anything. I find the occassional blowout absolutely essential to my mental and spiritual well being. _________________ www.askaboutenergy.com
According to which, the effect is expected to take "many decades":
"The permafrost is likely to take many decades at least to thaw, so the methane locked within it will not be released into the atmosphere in one burst, said Stephen Sitch, a climate scientist at the Met Office's Hadley Centre in Exeter."
Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2008 5:03 am Post subject: Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived
GreyGhost wrote:
A few years? Calm down. The story has actually been around since at least as early as 2005.
With respect, not the seas boiling in a maelstrom of bubbling methane as the permafrost holding layer melts from the top down and develops holes through which columns of Methane bubble up to the surface.
You think there is something which will refreeze the undersea permafrost no longer protective layer?
Then there is the small matter of a localized methane release equivalent to say 75 million tonnes of Co2e into the Arctic environment and the resultant localized heating effect.
Maybe I've missed the point and something will reclose Pandora's box, put the bad Genie back into the bottle and the methane release will not get bigger and bigger as the permafrost layer develops more and more holes as the increasing warm water melts in downward from the top.
I really do hope you can show me that I'm 100% wrong but I think that will not happen.
According to which, the effect is expected to take "many decades":
"The permafrost is likely to take many decades at least to thaw, so the methane locked within it will not be released into the atmosphere in one burst, said Stephen Sitch, a climate scientist at the Met Office's Hadley Centre in Exeter."
... why do I sense my post won't make you happy?
GG I would find that article very reassuring except for one thing. In 2005 it was predicted that the Arctic might be ice free in the summer of 2080. In 2007 that was revised to 2030. Early this year some scientists were sayoing well it might be as early as 2013.
Now if the estimates for some part of the climate that can be seen and very easily sampled can change that extreamly in 3 years what makes any of us think scientists can make an accurate prediction for how long it will take the permafrost layer on the Continental margins in the Arctic to melt?
My understanding is that what has happened to this point is warmer river water influx has put enough energy into the seawater to melt the permafrost in area's where the rivers flow into the sea. If this releases enough methane to kick off increased warming the cycle will feed on itself, if it releases less than that ammount it will cause a few moderatly warmer years before it breaks down.
We don't know what the critical levels are so its all a guessing game backed up by probability studies. _________________ Always appeal to a man's enlightened self interest, you can trust him to look out for himself honestly, It's when you appeal to his Honor or the Common Good that he stops paying attention.
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