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Peakoil.com :: View topic - Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
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Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
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pup55
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 24, 2008 6:58 am    Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Code:
   Crude   Unleaded   Distillates
Platts   1.6   -5.1   -1.8
Reuters   -2   -4   -1.5
Bloomberg   -2.5   -3.6   
MF Global   -2.5   -2.1   -0.8
PO.com    -3.5   -8.6   -2.7


This is why I just love Wednesdays.
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SteinarN
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 24, 2008 8:06 am    Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

I just want to say thank you to pup55, DantesPeak and others contributing to this thread. I follow this thread closely, especially on wednesdays when the weekly estimates is made public.
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eastbay
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 24, 2008 8:10 am    Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

I wonder if there's a way to determine if traffic increases significantly on this thread during the few hours before 10:35 am Eastern.
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TheDude
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 24, 2008 8:21 am    Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote



Looks like it's the other way around.
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Ming
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 24, 2008 8:41 am    Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Quote:
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic
Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 1.5 million barrels from the previous week. At
290.2 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are in the lower half of the
average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased
by 5.9 million barrels last week, and are below the lower boundary of the
average range. Both finished gasoline inventories and gasoline blending
components inventories decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories fell by
4.2 million barrels, and are in the lower half of the average range for this
time of year. Propane/propylene inventories increased by 0.1 million barrels
last week but remain below the lower limit of the average range. Total
commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 17.9 million barrels last week,
and are below the lower boundary of the average range for this time of year.

But demand is also down by A LOT...


Last edited by Ming on Wed Sep 24, 2008 8:42 am; edited 1 time in total
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bl00k
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 24, 2008 8:42 am    Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/weekly_petroleum_status_report/current/txt/wpsr.txt

Crude -1,5
Gas -5,9 (178,7 million barrels in stock)
Dist -4,2
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AirlinePilot
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 24, 2008 8:49 am    Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

I call BS. Just plain BS.

WHERE IS THE EXTRA FUEL COMING FROM????? What happened to the 8.5 mb draw they were talking about last weekend?

I cant seem to make any of the reported shortage numbers jibe with the reports last week and this week. PPT is manipulating data to avoid major market volatility and more panic gasoline buying. I wonder if it's going to work?

Atlanta, Nashville, and points all around here, especially NC, are in dire straights. From my perspective just South of the ATL, things are getting worse, not better.

I'm completely and totally convinced there is some book cooking going on at this point.
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pup55
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 24, 2008 8:52 am    Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Code:
Unleaded   19-Sep      
Beginning Inv   184.6      
Imports   8.4   1.2   
Production   56   8   
Available   249      
Ending Inv   178.7      
Balance   70.3      
Balance/day   10.04      
Prod Supplied   9      
Actual Change   -5.9      
Deviation from Forecast      2.7   
         
Distillates   19-Sep      
Beginning Inv   129.6      
Imports   1.393   0.199   
Production   23.1   3.3   
Available   154.093      
Ending Inv   125.4      
Balance   28.693      
Balance/day   4.10      
Prod Supplied   3.9      
Actual Change   -4.2      
Deviation from Forecast      -1.5   
         
Crude Oil   19-Sep      
Beginning Inv   291.7      
Production   29.925   4.275   
Imports   49.7   7.1   
Total Available   371.325      
Provided to Ref   80.5   11.5   66.7
Ending Inventory   290.2      
Actual Change   -1.5      
Deviation from Forecast      2   


This report reflected the crisis situation in refinery utilization and fuel production, which as of yesterday or so was still continuing.

My estimate was not aggressive enough on the amount of production down, and was too optimistic on imports. The level of 7.1 imports means that Ike has affected this more than Rita in 2005.

There has already been plenty of conversation about the gasoline problem, and the imports of only 1.2 mbpd is not sufficient to make a dent in the problem, as long as the "demand" stays relatively high. I believe we referenced the period right after Katrina when demand dropped to the high 8-s for products supplied-- alarmingly, products supplied are over 9, and the "balance" that we keep track of is over 10.

So, even if a magic wand was waved, and restored these refiners to production, it would still be several weeks before the inventory got up to a reasonable level. I am afraid we will continue to see spreading shortages at the current levels.

But even more alarming is this 4.4 million barrel drop in distillates, during the time of year we need to be building inventory for winter. We already know that when this inventory gets around 100 million barrels, the northeast starts to shiver. At this rate, we are talking about six weeks.

Hopefully the gasoline futures markets will finally start to reflect this situation, and people will turn on their refining capacity.

The question I have at this point is: what makes it better next week? They are still talking about 1.7 mbpd refinery production down, as of the latest report.
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harrybuckman
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 24, 2008 9:20 am    Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

It isn't going to get better any soon, the refineries in port aruther got flooded. All the electric motors will be f'd, it will take at the very least a month before any sort of restart. I bet you won't see full capacity out of there for at least 3 months
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AirlinePilot
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 24, 2008 9:26 am    Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

When do they(refiners) start concentrating on heating oil vice gasoline? Amidst a potential serious gas shortage issue which one takes precedence?

As pup says, at some point they are going to have to rob Peter to pay Paul. This does not bode well for either inventory due to the fact that we are already late (significantly) in changing over to distillates and woefully short on gasoline supply.

And folks cant see that this is due to PO! Amazing! Shock
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Forney2008
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 24, 2008 10:00 am    Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

And guess what. We still have at least one more month of possible hurricanes to deal with in the Gulf Coast region. I say one month because by the time we get to mid to late October, the water temps can drop below 80 degrees F. along the northern Gulf Coast. This would naturally weaken hurricanes unless they flew over water at rocket speed. Laughing
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memmel
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 24, 2008 10:03 am    Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

AirlinePilot wrote:
When do they(refiners) start concentrating on heating oil vice gasoline? Amidst a potential serious gas shortage issue which one takes precedence?

As pup says, at some point they are going to have to rob Peter to pay Paul. This does not bode well for either inventory due to the fact that we are already late (significantly) in changing over to distillates and woefully short on gasoline supply.

And folks cant see that this is due to PO! Amazing! Shock


I think what going to be very interesting is the tangle between NG demand increasing this coming winter and when they finally get these complex refineries online. This coupled with the looming problem your mentioning of distillates vs gasoline opens up the potential for what can only be described as a cluster f%@k of epic proportions.

In my opinion they only way to solve all of these needs is a large surge in light sweet crude imports. I doubt however that this will happen.
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nth
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 24, 2008 10:59 am    Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

I am puzzled by the gov't and markets. First, we have real world gasoline shortages across the Southern part of US minus Southwest. I expected more people to be complaining and more gov't officials talking about solutions to this. This should be page one news.

Next, market prices for gasoline are low! Why is it not shooting through the roof? Also, why do we have refineries running under capacity for gasoline in Asia and Europe? They should be shipping all extra gasoline to US, but of course, the price is too low.
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ROCKMAN
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Joined: May 27, 2008
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:14 am    Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

AP,

Usually the FO switch over comes late Aug or early Sept but then often only after any yearly maintenance shut downs occur. I guess we can look at the current situation and call it unexpected seasonal maintenance taking longer than usual. I know just a few folks on the rfining side and none of them will say anything definitive. I don't think they're holding back. I think they honestly just don't know.

Any guess on how much the FO reserves in New England can suppliment any short fall. I don't think I've ever heard the volume mentioned.
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retiredguy
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:59 am    Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

What nth said.

I read some blather this morning that gas prices are lower because demand is way down. Yes, I would imagine gas usage might be down for the reason that a large number of people can't buy it.

Are the inmates now fully in charge?
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