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pup55 Expert


Joined: May 26, 2004 Posts: 3862
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Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2008 6:58 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current) |
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| Code: | Crude Unleaded Distillates
Platts 1.6 -5.1 -1.8
Reuters -2 -4 -1.5
Bloomberg -2.5 -3.6
MF Global -2.5 -2.1 -0.8
PO.com -3.5 -8.6 -2.7
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This is why I just love Wednesdays. |
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SteinarN Heavy Crude


Joined: Sep 20, 2007 Posts: 112 Location: Norway
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Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2008 8:06 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current) |
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| I just want to say thank you to pup55, DantesPeak and others contributing to this thread. I follow this thread closely, especially on wednesdays when the weekly estimates is made public. |
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eastbay Moderator


Joined: Dec 18, 2004 Posts: 4996 Location: One Mile From the Columbia River
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Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2008 8:10 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current) |
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I wonder if there's a way to determine if traffic increases significantly on this thread during the few hours before 10:35 am Eastern. _________________ Got Dharma?
Everything is Impermanent. Shakyamuni Buddha |
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TheDude Expert


Joined: Apr 06, 2006 Posts: 3626 Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
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Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2008 8:21 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current) |
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Looks like it's the other way around. _________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
C'mon man, who're you gonna believe? |
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Ming Heavy Crude


Joined: Aug 26, 2005 Posts: 271
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Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2008 8:41 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current) |
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| Quote: | U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic
Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 1.5 million barrels from the previous week. At
290.2 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are in the lower half of the
average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased
by 5.9 million barrels last week, and are below the lower boundary of the
average range. Both finished gasoline inventories and gasoline blending
components inventories decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories fell by
4.2 million barrels, and are in the lower half of the average range for this
time of year. Propane/propylene inventories increased by 0.1 million barrels
last week but remain below the lower limit of the average range. Total
commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 17.9 million barrels last week,
and are below the lower boundary of the average range for this time of year. |
But demand is also down by A LOT...
Last edited by Ming on Wed Sep 24, 2008 8:42 am; edited 1 time in total |
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bl00k Heavy Crude


Joined: Sep 17, 2005 Posts: 178 Location: The Netherlands
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AirlinePilot Moderator


Joined: Apr 05, 2005 Posts: 2616 Location: South of Atlanta
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Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2008 8:49 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current) |
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I call BS. Just plain BS.
WHERE IS THE EXTRA FUEL COMING FROM????? What happened to the 8.5 mb draw they were talking about last weekend?
I cant seem to make any of the reported shortage numbers jibe with the reports last week and this week. PPT is manipulating data to avoid major market volatility and more panic gasoline buying. I wonder if it's going to work?
Atlanta, Nashville, and points all around here, especially NC, are in dire straights. From my perspective just South of the ATL, things are getting worse, not better.
I'm completely and totally convinced there is some book cooking going on at this point. |
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pup55 Expert


Joined: May 26, 2004 Posts: 3862
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Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2008 8:52 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current) |
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| Code: | Unleaded 19-Sep
Beginning Inv 184.6
Imports 8.4 1.2
Production 56 8
Available 249
Ending Inv 178.7
Balance 70.3
Balance/day 10.04
Prod Supplied 9
Actual Change -5.9
Deviation from Forecast 2.7
Distillates 19-Sep
Beginning Inv 129.6
Imports 1.393 0.199
Production 23.1 3.3
Available 154.093
Ending Inv 125.4
Balance 28.693
Balance/day 4.10
Prod Supplied 3.9
Actual Change -4.2
Deviation from Forecast -1.5
Crude Oil 19-Sep
Beginning Inv 291.7
Production 29.925 4.275
Imports 49.7 7.1
Total Available 371.325
Provided to Ref 80.5 11.5 66.7
Ending Inventory 290.2
Actual Change -1.5
Deviation from Forecast 2 |
This report reflected the crisis situation in refinery utilization and fuel production, which as of yesterday or so was still continuing.
My estimate was not aggressive enough on the amount of production down, and was too optimistic on imports. The level of 7.1 imports means that Ike has affected this more than Rita in 2005.
There has already been plenty of conversation about the gasoline problem, and the imports of only 1.2 mbpd is not sufficient to make a dent in the problem, as long as the "demand" stays relatively high. I believe we referenced the period right after Katrina when demand dropped to the high 8-s for products supplied-- alarmingly, products supplied are over 9, and the "balance" that we keep track of is over 10.
So, even if a magic wand was waved, and restored these refiners to production, it would still be several weeks before the inventory got up to a reasonable level. I am afraid we will continue to see spreading shortages at the current levels.
But even more alarming is this 4.4 million barrel drop in distillates, during the time of year we need to be building inventory for winter. We already know that when this inventory gets around 100 million barrels, the northeast starts to shiver. At this rate, we are talking about six weeks.
Hopefully the gasoline futures markets will finally start to reflect this situation, and people will turn on their refining capacity.
The question I have at this point is: what makes it better next week? They are still talking about 1.7 mbpd refinery production down, as of the latest report. |
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harrybuckman Coal


Joined: Aug 10, 2008 Posts: 16
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Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2008 9:20 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current) |
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| It isn't going to get better any soon, the refineries in port aruther got flooded. All the electric motors will be f'd, it will take at the very least a month before any sort of restart. I bet you won't see full capacity out of there for at least 3 months |
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AirlinePilot Moderator


Joined: Apr 05, 2005 Posts: 2616 Location: South of Atlanta
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Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2008 9:26 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current) |
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When do they(refiners) start concentrating on heating oil vice gasoline? Amidst a potential serious gas shortage issue which one takes precedence?
As pup says, at some point they are going to have to rob Peter to pay Paul. This does not bode well for either inventory due to the fact that we are already late (significantly) in changing over to distillates and woefully short on gasoline supply.
And folks cant see that this is due to PO! Amazing!  |
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Forney2008 Heavy Crude


Joined: Apr 16, 2008 Posts: 121 Location: Western PA, USA
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Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2008 10:00 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current) |
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And guess what. We still have at least one more month of possible hurricanes to deal with in the Gulf Coast region. I say one month because by the time we get to mid to late October, the water temps can drop below 80 degrees F. along the northern Gulf Coast. This would naturally weaken hurricanes unless they flew over water at rocket speed.  |
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memmel Tar Sands


Joined: Oct 31, 2007 Posts: 52
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Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2008 10:03 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current) |
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| AirlinePilot wrote: | When do they(refiners) start concentrating on heating oil vice gasoline? Amidst a potential serious gas shortage issue which one takes precedence?
As pup says, at some point they are going to have to rob Peter to pay Paul. This does not bode well for either inventory due to the fact that we are already late (significantly) in changing over to distillates and woefully short on gasoline supply.
And folks cant see that this is due to PO! Amazing!  |
I think what going to be very interesting is the tangle between NG demand increasing this coming winter and when they finally get these complex refineries online. This coupled with the looming problem your mentioning of distillates vs gasoline opens up the potential for what can only be described as a cluster f%@k of epic proportions.
In my opinion they only way to solve all of these needs is a large surge in light sweet crude imports. I doubt however that this will happen. |
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nth Light Sweet Crude


Joined: Feb 24, 2005 Posts: 1976
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Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2008 10:59 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current) |
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I am puzzled by the gov't and markets. First, we have real world gasoline shortages across the Southern part of US minus Southwest. I expected more people to be complaining and more gov't officials talking about solutions to this. This should be page one news.
Next, market prices for gasoline are low! Why is it not shooting through the roof? Also, why do we have refineries running under capacity for gasoline in Asia and Europe? They should be shipping all extra gasoline to US, but of course, the price is too low. |
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ROCKMAN Intermediate Crude


Joined: May 27, 2008 Posts: 976 Location: TEXAS
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Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:14 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current) |
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AP,
Usually the FO switch over comes late Aug or early Sept but then often only after any yearly maintenance shut downs occur. I guess we can look at the current situation and call it unexpected seasonal maintenance taking longer than usual. I know just a few folks on the rfining side and none of them will say anything definitive. I don't think they're holding back. I think they honestly just don't know.
Any guess on how much the FO reserves in New England can suppliment any short fall. I don't think I've ever heard the volume mentioned. |
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retiredguy Intermediate Crude


Joined: Jan 11, 2005 Posts: 580 Location: southern Wisconsin
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Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:59 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current) |
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What nth said.
I read some blather this morning that gas prices are lower because demand is way down. Yes, I would imagine gas usage might be down for the reason that a large number of people can't buy it.
Are the inmates now fully in charge? |
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