Oil's energy contribution has declined by about 12% since 1999. The world's economies have also declined by about 12%. (Using conventional metrics, which are time delayed determinations, this will only be seen in hind sight). The massive destruction of asset values now occurring testifies to it happening.
Peak is well behind us, world economies have peaked and will continue to decline.
Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2008 12:32 am Post subject: Re: Housing and Economic Collapse - In Progress #3
Roccland wrote:
I agree with RE too - that we are headed for destruction...but his reasons are flawed.
Well, if you want a full blown conspiracy theory that explains exactly how the scenario works, I'll give it to you You can then pick it apart to tell me the flaws in the reasoning.
Although the earth in the long term falls to the laws of entropy when the sun burns out, as long as there is a persistent energy supply raining down on the eath, thermodynamically the system can move ahead.
What you have here is a Many to One-One to Many cycle that repeats itself.
In the Beginning, far as human beings emerging out of Africa was concerned, it was basically entropic, no organization whatsoever. However, to survive in the environment, tribes of interdependent humans had to form, and then neighboring ones each swallowed up the other in wars. All Hunter-gatherers, with slight advantages over each other with the development of some new weapon. A Stone Tool, a spear, a Bow and Arrow, a Trebuchet etc. However, all these societies still very subject to the natural occurrences of famine without the ability to save much from one season to the next.
The development of Agriculture led to the ability save more than that, upwards of 7 years worth of real wealth, Food in a Grainhouse. In the time of famine though, WHO controls the wealth? The guy with the Key to the Grainhouse. Long as he has an army that protects the grainhouse, he can pick and choose who to throw the crumbs to and keep enough people alive as Slaves for when the famine ends.
The Romans were particularly good on the Army end, and managed to scarf up most of the wealth of the world, but eventually fell apart due to corruption on the inside and competing elements of the ruling class for the same wealth supply. The One went to the Many, and the Dark Ages ensued, with all the population losses one might expect from famine and plague.
However, Wealth began to consolidate again, this time in the hands of the very organization the lost people turned to, the Catholic Church. It was something to rally around in the dark times, and people gave a tithe to the Church (tax of course), which the Church redistributed to the needy. The Many once again reverted to the One, but of course the Church also then became Corrupt and fractured. This as the Enlightenment began and Science and Mathematics were explored, and new sources of wealth were discovered in the New World. Christianity broke up into a variety of competing sects, and along came the calculus and the ability not only to analyze the stars and nature, but also population growth dynamics. This was applied by the Rothschilds to the Banking system of England, and was delivered over to America by Alexander Hamilton.
In the midst of that, you have the founding of Yale University in the 1600s, and the Skull & Bones Society (note the name of course). I doubt the principles of Boom and Bust cyles and how to control them was lost through the generations here, it was all written down in books int he Skull & Bones Secret Library. As long as you have a means to centralize wealth by control of the money supply (metaphorical grain in the warehouse) and have the Key to the Bank and an Army to protect the wealth, whenever you see a bust coming or want to get one going by encouraging ridiculous expenditure of wealth on worthless assets (automobiles and the suburban house), you do it, get a panic started and then abscond with the wealth, leaving the vast majority for the population to die of starvation.
Why do you encourage the growth of the population for a while? Simple, you need the workers to extract more of the wealth of the world. However, you always want to centralize the wealth and keep most of it for yourself. People all over the world have been in perpetual economic slavery to the central holders of wealth for the last 400 years, really if you include the early agricultural societies since about 6000BC.
Now, encouraging Global Warming through excessive burning of fossil fuels and Species extinction generally is something that could come back to bite you in the butt, but my guess would be that if 6/7ths of the current world population is killed off, and the Ruling class doles out the Food in the warehouses only to those who will serve in their armies or serve as their slaves, that in due time of 30 or 40 years the ecological balance will reassert itself. Just a theory though, it might also be true that the feedback loops are so great it makes the planet untenable for too long for even the Ruling Class to hold out in the bunkers.
In any event, the Ruling Class here can blame the Holocaust on Nature, in the form of Ike and Gustav. "We are HELPLESS to get the Food to the People of Galveston/Haiti/Cuba/Atlanta/Nashville (etc etc etc)!" And really they are. What food there is gets redistributed here to Soldiers who will fight for them and slaves who will work the land for them by hand. If you won't do that, you get sent to the new Human Waste Methane Facility in San Antonio for recycling into JP6 for their Jets.
So, the gamble here the Ruling Class is taking is that the destruction of the environment is not SO great that enough of the earth won't have arable land that they can put slaves to work to feed them. Maybe they need to shrink it down to just 1,000,000 people with 1000 in the ruling class? They will have a PERMANENT hold on all the wealth gathered over centuries, all the technology and the ability to enslave whomever they want. In perpetuity in cycles of boom and bust until the Sun burns itself out in 4 Billion years. All they need to do is get Slaves to put up thousands of windmills for them, so they have lights and airconditioning while the rest of the population exists in darkness toiling away for a few morsels of food each day to stay alive. The Peak Goddess Plowing the Fields during the day and plowed herself at night in the Master's bed.
They have done prety well for the last 400 years with this idea anyhow. For many of you who THOUGHT you were Rich with your Stocks and Bonds, be it known that the Bankers have just locked the door on all you accumulated. You also are a Slave now. If you don't have an Army, you won't hold onto your wealth, be it land or possessible gold.
Now you are stuck with the choice, on which side will you fight here? Will you become fascist cannon fodder and fight as one of their Storm Troopers? Or will you fight on the side of the dispossessed, from whom their life savings was just stolen? Chances are the battle has already been lost, and too many of the disposses will die from hunger to put up much of a fight. And they will never really understand what caused it either. They will go to their graves thinking its all because Ike hit Houston. For the individual Prepper in Idaho, he also will be rooted out and divested of his land and split wood.
Depends if you buy the Big Conspiracy Theory though. Its up to you to decide if this is sound logic or not, and up to you to decide which is more likely, that this was purely random entropy, or if there is some guiding principle behind it. If it was random, how would it be Nostradamus could have predicted accurately the rise of the Fascist Regimes in the 1930s?
Note, none of this is based on any hard evidence. Its all just speculation. I'm just reviewing the conspiracy theory for anyone not familiar with it. Looking forward to the replies
Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2008 4:41 am Post subject: Re: Housing and Economic Collapse - In Progress #3
Razor wire in the hills outside DC? I don't suppose that they are relics of the cold war and fence in some of those "Undisclosed locations" the politicans retreat to when the capital is threatened. The people that use them want to return to the world the way it was as soon as the all clear is sounded.
No I havent seen the 'Cube'. What was its point?
The fourth generation of rich and powerful people you say. They plot to carry out great grand dads grand design from the deck of the yacht on the Riviera. Is Paris Hilton the new kid on the block and a major thinker cleverly disguised?
RE
That is the shortest version of world history I have ever read. stone tools to trebuchet in one sentence, impressive.
Now ancient kings planned to pass on their empires to their sons and if shortages of resourses developed the invasion of the next country over the border would provide a new supply. A lone term plan where they and theirs held power and wealth forever.
Now we have a world wide economy and if the switch is thrown the whole world collapses and there is nowhere to run. A bunker or safe haven is fine for a survivalist but Paris and Buffie are not going to be able to park their lear jet there much less Rodao drive and Tiffanies.
I think the rich and powerful people in the world have exponentaly more to lose then this redneck sitting in his potatoe patch. They like things just as they were and if they do somthing to trigger a world collapse it will be due to incompetence or bad drugs not some evil design that has no practical purpose.
Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2008 6:38 am Post subject: Re: Housing and Economic Collapse - In Progress #3
ReverseEngineer wrote:
Roccland wrote:
I agree with RE too - that we are headed for destruction...but his reasons are flawed.
Well, if you want a full blown conspiracy theory that explains exactly how the scenario works, I'll give it to you You can then pick it apart to tell me the flaws in the reasoning.
Although the earth in the long term falls to the laws of entropy when the sun burns out, as long as there is a persistent energy supply raining down on the eath, thermodynamically the system can move ahead.
What you have here is a Many to One-One to Many cycle that repeats itself.
In the Beginning, far as human beings emerging out of Africa was concerned, it was basically entropic, no organization whatsoever. However, to survive in the environment, tribes of interdependent humans had to form, and then neighboring ones each swallowed up the other in wars. All Hunter-gatherers, with slight advantages over each other with the development of some new weapon. A Stone Tool, a spear, a Bow and Arrow, a Trebuchet etc. However, all these societies still very subject to the natural occurrences of famine without the ability to save much from one season to the next.
The development of Agriculture led to the ability save more than that, upwards of 7 years worth of real wealth, Food in a Grainhouse. In the time of famine though, WHO controls the wealth? The guy with the Key to the Grainhouse. Long as he has an army that protects the grainhouse, he can pick and choose who to throw the crumbs to and keep enough people alive as Slaves for when the famine ends.
The Romans were particularly good on the Army end, and managed to scarf up most of the wealth of the world, but eventually fell apart due to corruption on the inside and competing elements of the ruling class for the same wealth supply. The One went to the Many, and the Dark Ages ensued, with all the population losses one might expect from famine and plague.
However, Wealth began to consolidate again, this time in the hands of the very organization the lost people turned to, the Catholic Church. It was something to rally around in the dark times, and people gave a tithe to the Church (tax of course), which the Church redistributed to the needy. The Many once again reverted to the One, but of course the Church also then became Corrupt and fractured. This as the Enlightenment began and Science and Mathematics were explored, and new sources of wealth were discovered in the New World. Christianity broke up into a variety of competing sects, and along came the calculus and the ability not only to analyze the stars and nature, but also population growth dynamics. This was applied by the Rothschilds to the Banking system of England, and was delivered over to America by Alexander Hamilton.
In the midst of that, you have the founding of Yale University in the 1600s, and the Skull & Bones Society (note the name of course). I doubt the principles of Boom and Bust cyles and how to control them was lost through the generations here, it was all written down in books int he Skull & Bones Secret Library. As long as you have a means to centralize wealth by control of the money supply (metaphorical grain in the warehouse) and have the Key to the Bank and an Army to protect the wealth, whenever you see a bust coming or want to get one going by encouraging ridiculous expenditure of wealth on worthless assets (automobiles and the suburban house), you do it, get a panic started and then abscond with the wealth, leaving the vast majority for the population to die of starvation.
Why do you encourage the growth of the population for a while? Simple, you need the workers to extract more of the wealth of the world. However, you always want to centralize the wealth and keep most of it for yourself. People all over the world have been in perpetual economic slavery to the central holders of wealth for the last 400 years, really if you include the early agricultural societies since about 6000BC.
Now, encouraging Global Warming through excessive burning of fossil fuels and Species extinction generally is something that could come back to bite you in the butt, but my guess would be that if 6/7ths of the current world population is killed off, and the Ruling class doles out the Food in the warehouses only to those who will serve in their armies or serve as their slaves, that in due time of 30 or 40 years the ecological balance will reassert itself. Just a theory though, it might also be true that the feedback loops are so great it makes the planet untenable for too long for even the Ruling Class to hold out in the bunkers.
In any event, the Ruling Class here can blame the Holocaust on Nature, in the form of Ike and Gustav. "We are HELPLESS to get the Food to the People of Galveston/Haiti/Cuba/Atlanta/Nashville (etc etc etc)!" And really they are. What food there is gets redistributed here to Soldiers who will fight for them and slaves who will work the land for them by hand. If you won't do that, you get sent to the new Human Waste Methane Facility in San Antonio for recycling into JP6 for their Jets.
So, the gamble here the Ruling Class is taking is that the destruction of the environment is not SO great that enough of the earth won't have arable land that they can put slaves to work to feed them. Maybe they need to shrink it down to just 1,000,000 people with 1000 in the ruling class? They will have a PERMANENT hold on all the wealth gathered over centuries, all the technology and the ability to enslave whomever they want. In perpetuity in cycles of boom and bust until the Sun burns itself out in 4 Billion years. All they need to do is get Slaves to put up thousands of windmills for them, so they have lights and airconditioning while the rest of the population exists in darkness toiling away for a few morsels of food each day to stay alive. The Peak Goddess Plowing the Fields during the day and plowed herself at night in the Master's bed.
They have done prety well for the last 400 years with this idea anyhow. For many of you who THOUGHT you were Rich with your Stocks and Bonds, be it known that the Bankers have just locked the door on all you accumulated. You also are a Slave now. If you don't have an Army, you won't hold onto your wealth, be it land or possessible gold.
Now you are stuck with the choice, on which side will you fight here? Will you become fascist cannon fodder and fight as one of their Storm Troopers? Or will you fight on the side of the dispossessed, from whom their life savings was just stolen? Chances are the battle has already been lost, and too many of the disposses will die from hunger to put up much of a fight. And they will never really understand what caused it either. They will go to their graves thinking its all because Ike hit Houston. For the individual Prepper in Idaho, he also will be rooted out and divested of his land and split wood.
Depends if you buy the Big Conspiracy Theory though. Its up to you to decide if this is sound logic or not, and up to you to decide which is more likely, that this was purely random entropy, or if there is some guiding principle behind it. If it was random, how would it be Nostradamus could have predicted accurately the rise of the Fascist Regimes in the 1930s?
Note, none of this is based on any hard evidence. Its all just speculation. I'm just reviewing the conspiracy theory for anyone not familiar with it. Looking forward to the replies
Reverse Engineer
Ummm...nice cliff notes...I am not gonna get into them because I see them as a stawman.
Correct me if I misinterpreted what you posted before this, but from where I am standing you said:
1) you believe in god
2) you believe god made us kind
Your Jared Diamondesque rant above made some good points, but who cares...it was not my point.
The GREATEST CONSPIRACY THEORY OF ALL ...
wait for it RE...
IS THAT A GOD EXISTS. _________________ 500 MPH into a brick wall - me
Joined: Oct 15, 2004 Posts: 2258 Location: Arkansas
Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2008 6:45 am Post subject: Re: Housing and Economic Collapse - In Progress #3
I said before and now others say it too, this period and now this bailout will mark the beginning of the end of private home ownership.
Quote:
U.S. Government: The World's Largest Homeowner
Here is yet another fax campaign.
Fax Title: U.S. Government: The World's Largest Homeowner
Senator
If the Treasury buys $700 billion in toxic mortgages from banks, the government would be setting itself up to be the world's largest homeowner.
The US government will own every house that is foreclosed on as well as those where people simply decide to walk away.
Exactly what will the Government do with those houses?
What will the losses be?
How much would it cost to prevent foreclosures?
What about walk-aways?
Questions like these are why Treasury Secretary Paulson and Chairman Ben Bernanke want you to rush passage of this bill. Both want you to pass Paulson's bill before you have time to think.
Senator, please stop and think about the ramifications of quickly passing this bill. If you do, you will quickly see that $700 billion is a mere down payment on problems down the road.
If you are thinking, you will not let this bill pass.
Old fashioned in the queues, but the speculation was spread by more modern ways (ie mobile phones). _________________ We should teach our children the 4-Rs: Reduce, Reuse, Recycle and Rejoice.
Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:15 am Post subject: Re: Housing and Economic Collapse - In Progress #3
Thanks folks for the compliments on the quicky synopsis of World History
A few points to respond to:
1- Nowhere in any post do I claim to believe in God or not believe in God. I can't know whether a God Exists or Not. You could attribute the coalescence of Life on the Planet either to the random self organization of organic compounds driven by the thermodynamic energy of the sun, or you could attribute it to an Old Man with a White Beard who organized it all up as entertainment. All I am doing is making an analysis based on what I observe through what is there in the geologic record and what is left of the written history of the world, incomplete and rewritten as it has been so many times over. Gotta read the subtext to find any glimmer of real truth though.
2- Most certainly, everyone, including most of all probably the mega rich would like to see the "old order" restored. Its very unsettling to live in a world where laws you thought held true are broken every day. However, if at some point you observe the nature of the wealth of nations and back track the economics, you can see the order involved here. For as long as there was wealth in the natural world to exploit, those who observed first how to best exploit it through confidence schemes and a banking system and periodic looting of the wealth did so. Now that its pretty much exhausted, EVERYBODY is fighting for the scraps left over. The fighting at the top of the food chain here is even more vicious right now then the fighting at the bottom end. Soon it will consume everyone though.
3- The plan to emerge in 30 years from a bunker and expect to fly your jet is of course absurd. Too many of the Jet Repairmen and Stewardesses and Pilots will have died off. LOL. However, you CAN keep it flying for another 30 years as long as you stay at the top of the food chain and keep eating up the people below, digesting them in Human Waste Methane Recycling Plants. 6 Billion people makes a lot of Jet Fuel.
4- When all is said and done, it would appear that the species is doomed to consume itself. We just were too successful at consuming the resources of the planet faster than they could be replenished. Those who observed this first calculated out the number of years it would take based on the population expansions and the relative size of the known earth. They came up with some pretty accurate numbers it would seem to me anyhow.
I am sitting here in my perch on the Last Great Frontier looking at the mountains outside my window. Lots of resources still out there of course, but very hard to get to without much of a road system to speak of. Everyone who lives out in the Bush here gets to & fro via small float planes that land on the little lakes. Not very sustainable once fuel for those little planes becomes scarce. You either will make do with what surrounds you directly, or you will die.
Same is true for the man on the little farm in a peaceful Vermont Valley. However, the pressures of the survival game as the military conscription happens and the wealth remaining gets robbed by those still in power put pressure on everyone who lives anywhere. You know, in the Civil War peaceful Vermont farmers probably did not want much to get involved, but in the end the farm boys got conscripted to form Vermont Regiments and serve as cannon fodder on the fields of Appomatox and Gettysburgh.
I can't really expect to avoid a war where there is NOWHERE really left to run, nowhere left to hide. Neither can anyone else on this board.
Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2008 12:29 pm Post subject: Re: Housing and Economic Collapse - In Progress #3
The few places I can think of to run to when TSHTF are small unpopulated (or sparsely populated) islands in the Southern Hemisphere, Southern South America, Western Australia (maybe eastern and New Zealand if they are spared) and maybe Ross Island by Mt. Erebus with some sort of geothermal power plant to provide energy for heating and hydroponics, electricity etc.
North America, Northern Africa, Northern South America and Eurasia will have major population centers Flashed, Burned and radioactive, and all the places in between will be poisoned with radioactivity. Nowhere between the north pole and 20degrees north will be livable for a while.
Alaska and Kamchatka are good places but the fallout there will be too great.
Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2008 1:25 pm Post subject: Re: Housing and Economic Collapse - In Progress #3
ReverseEngineer wrote:
Thanks folks for the compliments on the quicky synopsis of World History
A few points to respond to:
1- ......
,,,,,,,
Same is true for the man on the little farm in a peaceful Vermont Valley. However, the pressures of the survival game as the military conscription happens and the wealth remaining gets robbed by those still in power put pressure on everyone who lives anywhere. You know, in the Civil War peaceful Vermont farmers probably did not want much to get involved, but in the end the farm boys got conscripted to form Vermont Regiments and serve as cannon fodder on the fields of Appomatox and Gettysburgh.
I can't really expect to avoid a war where there is NOWHERE really left to run, nowhere left to hide. Neither can anyone else on this board.
Reverse Engineer
The Freemen of Vermont abolished slavery in Vermont with the adoption of the Vermont constitution in 1777. During the civil war Vermont had the highest per capita loss of any Union state.
While many Vermonters were conscripted many were in fact volunteers especially in the first years of the war.
There are more than a few veterans in Vermont both young and old. If they come to conscript Vermonters for any army not defending the constitution of the USA they will have to take them and their guns bullets first.
No matter how high tech a insurgent army may be they will have to stop to fuel up and the driver of the tank will have to get out sooner or later to take a wiz. Some old deer hunter just might be waiting for him to open the hatch.
Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2008 1:50 pm Post subject: Re: Housing and Economic Collapse - In Progress #3
Ancient world history buffs can find their thoughts redirected here. _________________ "It's called the American Dream because you'd have to be asleep to believe it."
Joined: Dec 02, 2005 Posts: 6786 Location: Oil-addicted Southern Californucopia
Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2008 2:45 pm Post subject: Re: Housing and Economic Collapse - In Progress #3
seahorse wrote:
...this period and now this bailout will mark the beginning of the end of private home ownership.
Why? Please elaborate.
Hard to understand how a huge drop in the cost of housing, which will open the market to millions of people who are priced out of it now, will have the effect you say it will.
For example, I have two co-workers, two nieces, and a nephew who are all gleefully watching the housing price tailspin, monitoring each month's losses, only too happy to anticipate further precipitous drops that will make it possible for them to buy a home of some sort, which they had absolutely no chance whatsoever of doing just a year ago. _________________ "Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen
Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2008 3:08 pm Post subject: Re: Housing and Economic Collapse - In Progress #3
Because the gov't is getting ready to be the biggest landowner in the world, and because most people will no longer be able to afford homes, so the majority of homes purchased will be by big entities. Earlier I linked an article where Saudi Arabia is, for the first time, looking at buying foreclosed homes as investments.
Will individuals still be able to buy homes? Sure, but it will not be as common and will be less common as time goes on. Why? Most Americans couldn't qualify to buy a home under previous credit standards and putting 20% down. Same will be true now. Further, with the dollar going down and US credit ratings suffering, interest rates will go up one of these days, making it even harder for an individual to buy a home.
Joined: Oct 04, 2004 Posts: 5720 Location: Body in OK, Heart in TX
Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2008 3:48 pm Post subject: Re: Housing and Economic Collapse - In Progress #3
emersonbiggins wrote:
Ancient world history buffs can find their thoughts redirected here.
Thank you, EB. These long threads are hard to split since the whole thing has to load first and you have to select each individual post. We appreciate your efforts. _________________ "Every junkie's like a setting sun..." - Neil Young
Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2008 4:14 pm Post subject: Re: Housing and Economic Collapse - In Progress #3
seahorse2 wrote:
Will individuals still be able to buy homes? Sure, but it will not be as common and will be less common as time goes on. Why? Most Americans couldn't qualify to buy a home under previous credit standards and putting 20% down. Same will be true now. Further, with the dollar going down and US credit ratings suffering, interest rates will go up one of these days, making it even harder for an individual to buy a home.
Not to mention the seeming inevitability of falling real wages over the next 20+ years. People may still be able to buy homes, but will they be able to keep them? _________________ "Who knows what the Second Law of Thermodynamics will be like in a hundred years?" - Economist speaking during planning for World Population Conference in early 1970s
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You can then pick it apart to tell me the flaws in the reasoning.
Razor wire in the hills outside DC? I don't suppose that they are relics of the cold war and fence in some of those "Undisclosed locations" the politicans retreat to when the capital is threatened. The people that use them want to return to the world the way it was as soon as the all clear is sounded.
