How to tell when peak oil has happened

spot5050 · Last edited by spot5050 on Wed Sep 24, 2008 4:52 pm; edited 1 time in total

Pick one of the following, or make your own...

The best indicator that peak-oil has occurred is;

1. World oil production is flat for two years.
2. Human population growth hits zero.
3. World GDP growth hits zero.
4. peakoil.com achieves 1,000,000 members.
5. The first item on a mainstream news channel is peak-oil.
6. Saudi Arabia fails to increase oil production after the West demands that it does.

killJOY · Fission Joined: Feb 21, 2005 Posts: 2510 Location: ^NNE^

7. When, after ten years of high prices, shortages, and economic chaos, oil flow rate fails to exceed its previous high. Popularly known as "rear view mirror."

Then there's net exports. This will kill us before global geologic peak.
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"By the time individuals discover that remaining resources will not be adequate for the next generation, the next generation has already been born. " David Price

cipi604

3-5 years after the plateau, if the oil flow is down at least 10%, when money can't buy any more oil.

pedalling_faster · Intermediate Crude Joined: Dec 10, 2005 Posts: 947

9-11 - the official reason we are in Iraq.
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http://www.LASIK-Flap.com/ ~ Health Warning about LASIK Eye Surgery

TheDude

If #6 were an indicator it would've seemed that we peaked in 1967...

Kinda wonder if we'll ever know. Perhaps the IEIIAIAIEAI will just obfuscate the data to calm markets and population while the real volumes just continue to decline.
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Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
C'mon man, who're you gonna believe?

benzoil

TV ads during football games feature 0% financing on home wind turbines instead of Chevys.

Late night infomercials change from real estate scams (finally!) and dubious home cleaning products to dubious home brew diesel products and energy savings scams.
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TANSTAAFL

lper100km

The car’s a rusted hulk on blocks in the driveway and you are receiving your weekly welfare check of $275,000 via the internet. (if you had to pick it up at the local office, it would be only $146,000 because of admin fees)

cube · Fusion Joined: Mar 12, 2005 Posts: 3824

When this website shuts down then we'll know for sure.

how so?

For example people do not sit around wasting their time debating whether if the Earth is flat or round.
When something is universally known, there is nothing left to debate. ---> people stop talking about it.

When PO becomes universally known then this website will be abandoned. In a way it's happening already. Have you noticed most of these discussions have nothing to do with "debating" peak oil but instead talking about the current economic ramifications. Shock

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joeltrout Oct-2008: Dow 13,000 in three years

ki11ercane

When the current economic crisis has passed. Peak Oil has been put on hiatus for the time being.