Oil's energy contribution has declined by about 12% since 1999. The world's economies have also declined by about 12%. (Using conventional metrics, which are time delayed determinations, this will only be seen in hind sight). The massive destruction of asset values now occurring testifies to it happening.
Peak is well behind us, world economies have peaked and will continue to decline.
* I think Bushes speech was very well crafted. At least as good as
as the average Nigerian Businessman scam.
* Bush seems to be blaming Americans for this problem.
"This large influx of money to U.S. banks and financial institutions,
along with low interest rates, made it easier for Americans to get credit."
* He also seems to be trying to blame Clinton for his problems.
He blamed the build up in housing as starting 10 years ago, before
he came to office.
* Bush offered long term solutions like instating practices so companies
don't get so large that they can take down the economy. Which is
ironically straight out of the New Deal. I say ironic since dismantling
the New Deal has been a long term goal of republicans and it seemed
Bush, before today.
* I was eating cookies during he speech having a good chuckle watching
things play out as many of us expected. But at the same time
listening to bush kind of made me feel like running to my bank to
take out every penny. His speech didn't shore up my confidence
that the country is doing well.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2008 9:23 pm Post subject: Re: Bush was on primetime tonight...
Quote:
Warning that “a long and painful recession” could occur if Congress does not act quickly, Mr. Bush said the consequences could play out in “a distressing scenario,” including potential bank failures, job losses and inability for ordinary Americans to borrow money to buy cars or send their children to college.
“Fellow citizens, we must not let this happen,” he said.
NY Times
While it's bad policy to imply the economy will collapse without this bill, it's even worse to imply that the government will be able to stop the economy from falling into recession - like Superman stopping a speeding bullet.
I suppose there is a hope that the economy won't fall to pieces before election day if this doesn't work out. However all this hubris has distracted attention from the worse fuel crisis to hit the US since 1989.
This is going to blow up in everyone's face, and fairly soon too. _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Joined: Dec 09, 2004 Posts: 493 Location: Around somewhere
Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2008 9:30 pm Post subject: Re: Bush was on primetime tonight...
I thought it was quite a good speech. Unfortunately you can only do the mushroom cloud gag once. They cried wolf on Iraq and now when it's probably a real crisis, it may not get through to people. It's been an interesting day.
Last edited by SD_Scott on Thu Sep 25, 2008 6:37 pm; edited 1 time in total
Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2008 9:37 pm Post subject: Re: Bush was on primetime tonight...
explain to me how this thing is supposed to work, because i just don't see it. as far as i can tell, you just keep the system from blowing up for now. i understand it's an attempt to prevent systemic failure, and i understand it's an attempt to keep credit flowing, but what i don't get is how is that going to help when the american consumer is tapped out? we're in debt to our eyeballs: credit card debt, student loan debt, mortgage debt, car loan debt. if the consumer can't consume, then what?
Joined: Apr 09, 2007 Posts: 6376 Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).
Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2008 9:50 pm Post subject: Re: Bush was on primetime tonight...
We had the stimulus payment
We had the Fannie takeover
We had the Freddie takeover
We had the Fed credit line for banks
We had the AGI 80 billion loan
Each time they say it will solve the problem
Each time it doesn't.
This is more of the same BS
This stupid plan isn't going to solve all the problems....it'll just give more money to the same stupid clowns who caused the problem in the first place.
Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2008 10:14 pm Post subject: Re: Bush was on primetime tonight...
Plantagenet wrote:
This is more of the same BS
It is. It's a scam, just as big as the ponzi pyramid housing bubble. There's not enough lifeboats on the Titantic and Paulson wants to make sure that his buddies all have a seat.
The people on the receiving end of this money are going to laugh at first, and then run out and probably do things like drive the price of oil to 200/barrel and invest in real estate in Dubai.
I'm sure a very large chunk of this money will be used to shore up Lord Paulson's house of Goldman.
As for "moral hazard." This is a moral black hole. There will be no inhibition to blowing this money like a coke head on the Vegas strip. There's nothing to lose, it's free money. Easy come easy go.
Actually, as a point of thought, $700 billion is pretty much exactly in line with the more conservatively constrained estimates of the cost of the Iraq fiasco to date. Eerie coincidence, perhaps. _________________ At 1% annual growth, human bodies will incorporate every gram in the observable universe in approximately 10,170 years.
Posted: Thu Sep 25, 2008 12:18 am Post subject: Re: Bush was on primetime tonight...
Here is his speech in a nutshell.
Dear Lemmings, I know I told you a couple of months back that the fundamentals were strong in the economy. They were, but greedy lemmings, you took those fundamentals away. So now, the cliff is so near some lemmings are already going over. If you don't want to be next, give me and my pals dictatorship of the country. We will push unwanted lemmings over the cliff and get rid of them and we will again be back to strong fundamentals and a strong economy.
God's watching and he is not happy.
Posted: Thu Sep 25, 2008 1:29 am Post subject: Re: Bush was on primetime tonight...
Plantagenet wrote:
We had the stimulus payment
We had the Fannie takeover
We had the Freddie takeover
We had the Fed credit line for banks
We had the AGI 80 billion loan
Each time they say it will solve the problem
Each time it doesn't.
This is more of the same BS
This stupid plan isn't going to solve all the problems....it'll just give more money to the same stupid clowns who caused the problem in the first place.
This would be the modern day equivalent of Nero Fiddling while Rome Burns.
The Senate here is not a whole lot different than the Senate back in the days of Julius Caesar either, and they are stepping all over themselves in the attempt to curry favor with the New Emperor.
Of course this is the age of computers, and events are transpiring much more rapidly than the good old days of Paper Wealth. 1s and 0s on a computer can disappear instantly of course, all over the world in an interconnected banking system in a fraction of a second.
The Chinese are as panicked as we are, there almost certainly IS a run on the banks in Hong Kong, and their emerging Capitalist Wealth is dissapearing as fast as ours is.
EVERY economy is going down the toilet here, Spain is a mess, the Russian Stock Market is closed and the Sheiks in Saudi Arabia are trying to figure out just WHO they can sell their oil to to get some FOOD in that arid climate?
Obviously, neither the solution Obama proposes or the solution McCain favors could resolve the problem of a world economy gone bankrupt. Nobody really even knows WHERE the wealth is really, if you want to call Gold wealth anyhow. Fort Knox? The Federal Reserve Bank basement in NYC? The Bank of the PRC? Who KNOWS? Who CARES? Gold won't buy you any FOOD when there is no food to buy, just as money will not buy you Gas when there is no gas to buy.
Anyhow, up at the top of the economic food chain, the big Lions are now eating each other up and any semblance of control to the situation has been lost. Liken it to the fire reported on the Colonial Pipeline. Why would you get that now? Because there is too much AIR in the pipeline. So the gas running through it can evaporate inside, friction builds heat as the pumps try to move what is left thru, and POOF you get combustion! As I said in a prior post, what you have here is the biggest Bonfire of Paper Wealth in all of Recorded History, and now the heat from that fire has transmitted itself to the world of real things. So Rome Burns.
This is a massive cascade failure of an entire civilization, world wide at the same time, courtesy of the advent of the computer and the instantaneous transmission of digital wealth in the form of 1s and 0s.
Hard to imagine how 1 brigade of active military troops working on US soil would maintain any order here. Heck even if Scotty beamed back all 160,000 Troops in Iraq, they really could hold order in our own country of 300 million? (my population estimate might be wrong, you can correct it to the right number, I don't feel like looking up the figure right now)
Chinese have a similar problem. THEIR 1Mil man standing army has to try to control the disorder among 1 BILLION Chinese. Not gonna be pretty over in China either.
Perhaps the Big Lions decide to turn the Big Weapons of Mass Destruction here on each other, but my guess would be first off they will be too busy trying to control civil disorder on the home turf to think about doing that, though you never know of course. It behooves no one to drop the Bomb on anyone else, nobody wants mass suicide instantly. Thats why it didn;t happen when Kennedy confronted the USSR in the Cuban Missile crisis. Slow suicide is better here.
Anyhow, I see this as the One reverting to the Many, without order. A new Dark Age.
Will there be a Resurrection of Civilization at some point in the distant future? Will some future civilization of Humans dig up the Fossils of this age? Or perhaps some other creature will take dominance over the earth at some point?
4 Billion years left until the Sun burns itself out, and there is no Heat to counteract the Laws of Entropy. So its possible. There is no doubt however that we are witnessing the Fall of World Civilization as we know it.
Joined: Mar 09, 2006 Posts: 555 Location: Al-Mariyya, Al-Andalus
Posted: Thu Sep 25, 2008 5:10 am Post subject: Re: Bush was on primetime tonight...
steam-cannon:
Quote:
* I was eating cookies during he speech having a good chuckle watching
things play out as many of us expected.
You wanna watch it with those cookies. I thought you were going to tell us how you nearly choked, fell over and hit your head on the coffee table .....
Posted: Thu Sep 25, 2008 6:07 am Post subject: Re: Bush was on primetime tonight...
Very nicely said Reverse Engineer. I´m following what is happening just out of curiosity on the minutiae. The outcome is written in the sky _________________ Stocking up on popcorn
Joined: May 18, 2006 Posts: 4867 Location: Minneapolis, MN
Posted: Thu Sep 25, 2008 7:09 am Post subject: Re: Bush was on primetime tonight...
Quote:
Chinese have a similar problem. THEIR 1Mil man standing army has to try to control the disorder among 1 BILLION Chinese. Not gonna be pretty over in China either.
Don't just about all the adult male citizens in China own an SKS? _________________ Believe those who are seeking the truth. Doubt those who find it.
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