Oil's energy contribution has declined by about 12% since 1999. The world's economies have also declined by about 12%. (Using conventional metrics, which are time delayed determinations, this will only be seen in hind sight). The massive destruction of asset values now occurring testifies to it happening.
Peak is well behind us, world economies have peaked and will continue to decline.
Posted: Thu Sep 25, 2008 2:23 pm Post subject: Re: We probably have less than 12-to-18 months before TSHTF
MattSavinar wrote:
Colorado-Valley wrote:
Even worse if you use May 2005 as the peak. Have you ever heard of ELP?
Of course. ELPing away from a nuclear target is my "plan."
good plan. link
what's an ELP? we hear about TSHTF, but it's rarely defined.
i would say it's a present tense concept, because for many people TS has already HTF. the families of dead Iraqi's, and Americans who have lost their jobs & homes, for example.
we read about gas shortages in Tennessee. i think part of the TSHTF concept involves gas shortages - Countrywide. which involves thinking about - what happens when the trucks stop bringing food to the market ?
which involves thinking about - how will i cook when there's no 'lectricity for the stove? which makes me realize - I need a Solar Oven!!! _________________ http://www.LASIK-Flap.com/ ~ Health Warning about LASIK Eye Surgery
Posted: Thu Sep 25, 2008 4:53 pm Post subject: Re: We probably have less than 12-to-18 months before TSHTF
At this point it is still no big deal and business is pretty much proceeding as usual except for a few folks on Wall Street and scattered around. Did notice that a Chrysler dealership had closed on north Fulton Avenue in Sacramento when I was out to drop by Hertz and pick up my car at a body shop off of Tower Avenue near there.
Am seriously hoping that the depletion of the world's oil supplies will mean that most Americans will not have access to cars. I dislike suburbia. It is nearly entirely dependent on easy access to cars for most adults and to cheap readily available credit as well. Without cars and credit suburbia should greatly contract. I hope that will happen.
Posted: Thu Sep 25, 2008 4:55 pm Post subject: Re: We probably have less than 12-to-18 months before TSHTF
pedalling_faster wrote:
what's an ELP ?
Economize, Localize, and Produce..
Coined by Jeffery Brown aka Westexas on TOD I believe...
-G _________________ I Have and will continue to vote against ANY politician who supports the various bailouts. Curse you for selling out our future for status quo now!
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Thu Sep 25, 2008 5:02 pm Post subject: Re: We probably have less than 12-to-18 months before TSHTF
Matt's orginal prediction may turn out to be right - if you are talking about general financial collapse.
By that I don't necessarily mean we will have a Black Friday where the market crashes 20 to 30%, but that in general, stocks have taken a huge hit and companies in general will have a difficult time selling stock or borrowing money.
They may have been able to postpone the financial crash until next year had it not been for the twin hurricanes of doom, which pushed refinery output down to the lowest level ever. Now with the real economy also taking a huge hit from transportation fuel shortages, there's nothing the government can do to pump the economy back up. _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
I'm going out on a limb and predict that things will be worse next year, barring of course the election of a suitable POTUS (have you picked up your ""Ph'nglui mglw'nafh Cthulhu R'lyeh wgah'nagl fhtagn" bumper sticker yet?). _________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
C'mon man, who're you gonna believe?
Joined: May 26, 2008 Posts: 1190 Location: Chicago, IL
Posted: Thu Sep 25, 2008 5:31 pm Post subject: Re: We probably have less than 12-to-18 months before TSHTF
DantesPeak wrote:
...I don't necessarily mean we will have a Black Friday where the market crashes 20 to 30%...
I think the mechanisms to halt trading at 10-20-30% will prevent another Black Friday, in theory, although, it can always be spread over a period of 2-3 days, I guess.
Posted: Fri Sep 26, 2008 7:37 am Post subject: Re: We probably have less than 12-to-18 months before TSHTF
Here's what Matt Simmons had to say in July:
The nub of his argument is that oil is still actually very cheap, and that the biggest danger the world faces at the moment is those people who argue that the current high prices are a blip, a bubble, a speculators spike. When asked for his scenario of the next year or two, he replied that the US would keep dropping its inventories (of oil) and feeling good about it, which would be followed by a shortage, which would, in turn, lead to “a run on the banks so fast your eyes would spin. This is when everyone tops up their tank. We haven’t run out of oil, but we could literally run out of usable diesel and gasoline and then we would have the Great American Disaster, because within a week we’d have run out of food”.
from Transition Culture _________________ Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
Joined: Jun 13, 2007 Posts: 3911 Location: Minniesotuh
Posted: Fri Sep 26, 2008 7:40 am Post subject: Re: We probably have less than 12-to-18 months before TSHTF
Revi wrote:
Here's what Matt Simmons had to say in July: .. We haven’t run out of oil, but we could literally run out of usable diesel and gasoline and then we would have the Great American Disaster, because within a week we’d have run out of food”. from Transition Culture
I may have missed them: Has anyone spotted any reports about food deliveries being hampered by the lack of gas in Atlanta, etc? _________________ "RRrrruuuunnnn!!!" ~Apocalypto
Posted: Fri Sep 26, 2008 7:55 am Post subject: Re: We probably have less than 12-to-18 months before TSHTF
This is what he said in July. The bank run hasn't happened yet either, unless you count WaMu. The food shortages could happen after diesel runs low. Anyone see any shortages happening yet? Britain ran low on a few things during the truckers strike. _________________ Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
Posted: Fri Sep 26, 2008 8:10 am Post subject: Re: We probably have less than 12-to-18 months before TSHTF
DantesPeak wrote:
Matt's orginal prediction may turn out to be right - if you are talking about general financial collapse.
By that I don't necessarily mean we will have a Black Friday where the market crashes 20 to 30%, but that in general, stocks have taken a huge hit and companies in general will have a difficult time selling stock or borrowing money.
I'm pretty sure that isn't what the OP meant, unless they just feel like going off-grid for every recession the country sees? In terms of a depression, even that isn't a collapse, although we're still pretty far from that, or even Black Monday. _________________
Posted: Mon Sep 29, 2008 11:35 am Post subject: Re: We probably have less than 12-to-18 months before TSHTF
Let´s see what this crisis has toppled so far:
- Bear Stearns
- Lehman Brothers
- Fannie Mae
- Freddie Mac,
- Merrill Lynch
- AIG
- HBOS (Bank of Scotland and Halifax)
- WaMu
- Wachovia Corp (taked over by Citigroup Inc.).
- Fortis.
Just to name a few (i´m not considering little banks)
Two weeks ago:
- The US Treasury had to help with $40 billion to bolster the Fed’s dwindling reserves.
- On Wednesday (I think it was 17) the value of the Tbill fall below zero. and at one point Libor stopped.
- US$3.6 trillion in global stock market expent in that "crisis" week alone : link
And today:
Quote:
Sept. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Stocks around the world fell the most since October 1997, the euro and the pound sank and bonds rose as governments raced to prop up banks infected by growing U.S. mortgage losses.
The Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell 3.8 percent after Wachovia Corp. required a takeover by Citigroup Inc. and lawmakers predicted a close vote on the Bush administration's $700 billion bank bailout. The British pound dropped the most against the dollar in 15 years after European governments stepped in to save Bradford & Bingley Plc, Fortis and Hypo Real Estate Holding AG. Commodities fell. The cost of borrowing in euros for three months soared to a record as banks hoarded cash.
link.
I though they would be able to delay the crash, at least till after the US elections, but the system is going down and down. The mammoth has gained momentum and there´s no way to stop it. _________________ Stocking up on popcorn
Posted: Mon Sep 29, 2008 11:55 am Post subject: Re: We probably have less than 12-to-18 months before TSHTF
eXpat wrote:
I though they would be able to delay the crash, at least till after the US elections, but the system is going down and down. The mammoth has gained momentum and there´s no way to stop it.
Yup. The horrors of a recession/possibly depression. We've never seen any of those before, and we'll never recover from this one... _________________
Posted: Mon Sep 29, 2008 12:09 pm Post subject: Re: We probably have less than 12-to-18 months before TSHTF
yesplease wrote:
eXpat wrote:
I though they would be able to delay the crash, at least till after the US elections, but the system is going down and down. The mammoth has gained momentum and there´s no way to stop it.
Yup. The horrors of a recession/possibly depression. We've never seen any of those before, and we'll never recover from this one...
See you at the other side (in some years) and you can tell me how fun it was. _________________ Stocking up on popcorn
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