Oil's energy contribution has declined by about 12% since 1999. The world's economies have also declined by about 12%. (Using conventional metrics, which are time delayed determinations, this will only be seen in hind sight). The massive destruction of asset values now occurring testifies to it happening.
Peak is well behind us, world economies have peaked and will continue to decline.
Joined: Sep 17, 2006 Posts: 719 Location: No man's land
Posted: Thu Sep 25, 2008 5:44 pm Post subject: Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived
It would interesting to know whether or not the methane releases will slow down during the winter or will continue to accelerate unabated. Because we are talking about sea temps, not air temps as the primary instigator, my feeling is that the methane releases may not slow down at this point.
??? _________________ "It is no measure of health to be deemed sane in an insane society" J. Krishnamurti
Joined: May 27, 2007 Posts: 1776 Location: The Post Peak Oil Historian
Posted: Thu Sep 25, 2008 6:01 pm Post subject: Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived
Clathrates and subsea permafrost will not reform, that has been in existence since at least the last ice age. Once they degrade, that's it. What is venting now will continue to vent.
What you will see is methane collect under the new ice that is formed over the winter, with a large release into the atmosphere as that ice breaks up and melts next spring/summer. _________________ In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act. - George Orwell
It riles them to believe that you perceive the webs they weave. - Moody Blues
Joined: Apr 28, 2005 Posts: 3920 Location: West shore Lake Eire, MI, USA
Posted: Thu Sep 25, 2008 6:06 pm Post subject: Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived
gnm wrote:
Cid_Yama wrote:
As Heinberg titled his most recent article, "Don't Panic, Prepare!"
Shakhova and Similetov have just warned that 50 Gt could abruptly release at any time causing a 12x increase in atmospheric methane. That is an Extinction Level Event.
This was presented at the European Geosciences Union General Assembly in April of this year.
It's not a question of if, it's a question of when. Sometime in the near future, if it's not actually happening right now.
link
Holy crap Cid, thats a scary article! I don't usually weigh in on this subject but OMG. 12x the current atmospheric methane?! Release at any moment? Yikes. I saw another story recently about survey ships reporting foaming and bubbling seas in that area (Siberian shelf) where methane was being released.
Like we didn't have enough problems already...
-G
The current GHW potency of the methane ibn the atmosphere is estimated to be 1/3rd that of the CO2 level. 12 times that amount as a new total would be 4 times the current CO2 level aka 1600 ppm CO2 equivelent. The good news is, it would break down to CO2 and H2O in about 12 years.
The bad news, of course, is it would play hell with the climate until then. Also it would probably melt a lot of the current permafrost area's and make that much more land into methane emitting swamp. _________________ Always appeal to a man's enlightened self interest, you can trust him to look out for himself honestly, It's when you appeal to his Honor or the Common Good that he stops paying attention.
Joined: Apr 28, 2005 Posts: 3920 Location: West shore Lake Eire, MI, USA
Posted: Thu Sep 25, 2008 6:09 pm Post subject: Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived
Cid_Yama wrote:
Clathrates and subsea permafrost will not reform, that has been in existence since at least the last ice age. Once they degrade, that's it. What is venting now will continue to vent.
What you will see is methane collect under the new ice that is formed over the winter, with a large release into the atmosphere as that ice breaks up and melts next spring/summer.
I don't think the ice layer will stop it Cid, the ice is not continued unbroken surface after all, it is dynamic and breaks frequently from wind and wave action during the winter months. Every open lead would be a vent as long as the methane keeps coming out of solution at the surface. _________________ Always appeal to a man's enlightened self interest, you can trust him to look out for himself honestly, It's when you appeal to his Honor or the Common Good that he stops paying attention.
Joined: Apr 28, 2005 Posts: 3920 Location: West shore Lake Eire, MI, USA
Posted: Thu Sep 25, 2008 6:12 pm Post subject: Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived
billg wrote:
It would interesting to know whether or not the methane releases will slow down during the winter or will continue to accelerate unabated. Because we are talking about sea temps, not air temps as the primary instigator, my feeling is that the methane releases may not slow down at this point.
???
It all depends. If the methane coming up now is from melting Clathrates directly then once the rivers cool down and quit adding heat they should stop melting. If the methane coming up now is the free gas currently trapped below the permafrost escaping through holes which have pierced the permafrost it will keep bubbling untill it exhausts the ready supply under those breaks in the permafrost. _________________ Always appeal to a man's enlightened self interest, you can trust him to look out for himself honestly, It's when you appeal to his Honor or the Common Good that he stops paying attention.
Joined: Dec 27, 2005 Posts: 120 Location: Australia
Posted: Thu Sep 25, 2008 6:14 pm Post subject: Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived
Dan1195 wrote:
It is unclear whether the amounts of methane being talked about here is significant or not. Methane levels in the atmosphere have been fairly stable for the past 10-15 years. I would think you would never a more widespread methan release than just a few locations to have an impact on atmospheric levels.
According to Catalyst (Australian Science Program on the ABC) last night, the methane has been stable for the last 10-15 years but over the last 12-18 months there has been a sharp increase in atmospheric methane levels.
Joined: May 27, 2007 Posts: 1776 Location: The Post Peak Oil Historian
Posted: Thu Sep 25, 2008 6:31 pm Post subject: Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived
The GWP of the methane is over 100x CO2 in the first 5 years and 72x over 20 years.
here's a handy little chart(see table 1): link _________________ In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act. - George Orwell
It riles them to believe that you perceive the webs they weave. - Moody Blues
Joined: Apr 28, 2005 Posts: 3920 Location: West shore Lake Eire, MI, USA
Posted: Thu Sep 25, 2008 7:06 pm Post subject: Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived
This map allows you all to see what I was referring too about why it matters how far north the Gulf Stream waters sink. Just north of 80 degrees any descending water colum lands on the north pole facing slope and drops down into the deep arctic basin on the eastern side.
The sill between the east and west deep basins is lower than the sill below the Fram strait, therefore once water intrudes it will fill both sides of the deep water basin before it overflows the sill and returns to the Atlantic bottom water flow. This will forms a very wide, very deep pool of warmer dense water that in turn will shed heat into the water above it, making it hard each year after the intrusion for the Ice Cap to re-form in the winter.
_________________ Always appeal to a man's enlightened self interest, you can trust him to look out for himself honestly, It's when you appeal to his Honor or the Common Good that he stops paying attention.
Joined: May 27, 2007 Posts: 1776 Location: The Post Peak Oil Historian
Posted: Thu Sep 25, 2008 7:39 pm Post subject: Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived
The Cretaceous Thermal Maximum was at 1300 ppm.
This extreme warming event in Earth's history raised tropical ocean temperatures to 35-37°C (95-98.6°F), about 10°C (18°F) warmer than today, thus creating an intense greenhouse climate.
Joined: Jan 18, 2006 Posts: 369 Location: Bordeaux
Posted: Fri Sep 26, 2008 1:29 am Post subject: Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived
Cid_Yama wrote:
The Cretaceous Thermal Maximum was at 1300 ppm.
This extreme warming event in Earth's history raised tropical ocean temperatures to 35-37°C (95-98.6°F), about 10°C (18°F) warmer than today, thus creating an intense greenhouse climate.
When you tell a story, tell ALL the story, not just the part that suits your doom porn scenario.
The mass extinctions were not and has NEVER been because of "intense" greenhouse, sucker. "Intense" greenhouse has always been good for the planet and its life, what an inconvient truth for the warmists, so they sweep it under the carpet. _________________ "Of the dozen insecticides WHO has approved as safe for house spraying, the most effective is DDT" (Arata Kochi, WHO's malaria chief).
Posted: Fri Sep 26, 2008 1:55 am Post subject: Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived
miniTAX wrote:
When you tell a story, tell ALL the story, not just the part that suits your doom porn scenario.
The mass extinctions were not and has NEVER been because of "intense" greenhouse, sucker. "Intense" greenhouse has always been good for the planet and its life, what an inconvient truth for the warmists, so they sweep it under the carpet.
Joined: Mar 28, 2007 Posts: 358 Location: Cambs., UK
Posted: Fri Sep 26, 2008 6:16 am Post subject: Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived
miniTAX wrote:
When you tell a story, tell ALL the story, not just the part that suits your doom porn scenario.
The mass extinctions were not and has NEVER been because of "intense" greenhouse, sucker. "Intense" greenhouse has always been good for the planet and its life, what an inconvient truth for the warmists, so they sweep it under the carpet.
So which orifice did you pull that nugget of gold? Are you going to tell us HOW exactly 95% of the global flora and fauna population dying out from an intense warming event in the Permian is a good thing, or are we going to have to beat sense into you? _________________ "Nothing survives. Not your parents. Not your children. Not even stars."
-Pinbacker, Sunshine
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