Oil's energy contribution has declined by about 12% since 1999. The world's economies have also declined by about 12%. (Using conventional metrics, which are time delayed determinations, this will only be seen in hind sight). The massive destruction of asset values now occurring testifies to it happening.
Peak is well behind us, world economies have peaked and will continue to decline.
Joined: Dec 25, 2005 Posts: 607 Location: Hillsboro, West Virginia
Posted: Sat Sep 27, 2008 2:27 pm Post subject: Re: "Bailout Could Worsen the Crisis" ---CBO
threadbear wrote:
If they get their way, (and they really should, the morons) they get instant depression. This is EXACTLY what they deserve, and they will have very directly brought it on themselves. Bring it on, Soccer Mom idiots!
It will be fun watching them, weeping and wailing, as their fate overtakes them. A soccer mom is what? An airhead bimbo who got married and has kids? Who needs them? Of course, I would not want to be seen by them in return, since my five year supply of food and stuff will only last five years if I'm the only one with access to it.
Posted: Sat Sep 27, 2008 5:36 pm Post subject: Re: "Bailout Could Worsen the Crisis" ---CBO
TommyJefferson wrote:
BlueGhostNo2 wrote:
which government / country would you buy debt from to be safe in the current clime?
You shouldn't buy anyone's debt right now.
That's the problem. There is too much debt on the market at artificially high prices.
Governments are working like mad to keep the price of all that debt from collapsing. That's the purpose of the bailout, to short-circuit the free market pricing mechanism which would fairly price all this debt.
My friend, what you need right now is not more paper, but Hard assets the government has difficulty applying property taxes to.
Good advice but there is a limit to how much money you can hold in hard assets, I am considering buying into a forestry fund - doubly good as oil makes plastic more expensive and thus wood more attractive). But the security issue then is if there is a SERIOUS economic downturn there will be more wood than buyers... which would mean THEN is the time to buy.
So for part of the portfolio you want some cash or cash like investment, both bank accounts and paper gold are in my opinion less secure than debt for governments and countries which will clearly cope well with PO.
So, I'm thinking: Denmark, New Zealand, Australia, Germany, Sweden, Switzerland.
Joined: Jan 01, 2007 Posts: 246 Location: Pacific Northwest
Posted: Sat Sep 27, 2008 8:09 pm Post subject: Re: "Bailout Could Worsen the Crisis" ---CBO
The Douglas Fir market is bad right now. Most foresters are not even cutting Fir. The only good market now is Alder. Which is pretty funny. Warehouser spent millions trying to kill the Alder off their lands, and now it is the only wood worth selling.
I don't see the Fir market improving anytime soon. It is used to build houses, and we all know where the housing market is at these days.
Joined: Sep 14, 2004 Posts: 6627 Location: Rural Virginia
Posted: Sun Sep 28, 2008 6:58 am Post subject: Re: "Bailout Could Worsen the Crisis" ---CBO
What is alder used for, and why is it suddenly in fashion, Careinke? _________________ "Actually, humans died out long ago."
---Abused, abandoned hunting dog
"Things have entered a stage where the only change that is possible is for things to get worse."
---Me and my brother
Joined: Sep 14, 2004 Posts: 6627 Location: Rural Virginia
Posted: Sun Sep 28, 2008 7:03 am Post subject: Re: "Bailout Could Worsen the Crisis" ---CBO
misterno wrote:
Tyler_JC wrote:
Last_Laff wrote:
How come I cannot feel the crisis?
Have you tried to get a mortgage in the past year? Or attempted to sell a house?
What about getting a line of credit for a business?
The credit markets are frozen right now.
I know people earning $200,000 a year who are seeing their lines of credit frozen. It's not because they can't make the payments, it's because the bank simply does not have any cash to lend to them.
Until the credit markets thaw, this can only get worse and worse.
Personally, I'd rather crash now then bailout those thieving bastards who got us into this mess in the first place. If we're going to crash, we might as well do it as soon as possible. That gives us more time to rebuild and recovery.
Well this is not correct, I am still getting %0 balance transfer offers in the mail everyday. How about that?
Yeh, and the dancing mortgage girls on the Internet keep dancing.
If the financial industry can get its operations humming again, it will go back to the same old ways. That's another reason the handout is such a scam. It won't change anything, any more than past historical financial messes changed things. Except we'll be left holding the bag. _________________ "Actually, humans died out long ago."
---Abused, abandoned hunting dog
"Things have entered a stage where the only change that is possible is for things to get worse."
---Me and my brother
Joined: Jan 01, 2007 Posts: 246 Location: Pacific Northwest
Posted: Sun Sep 28, 2008 11:41 am Post subject: Re: "Bailout Could Worsen the Crisis" ---CBO
Alder is a hardwood and is used in furniture and cabinet making. If you have some that are straight for at least 10 feet plus 13 inches or larger in diameter, and clear on all sides (no knots). The price doubles and they use them for "peelers" to make veneer. They ship the peelers in containers to Japan. I suppose the run up in demand is because other hardwoods are getting in short supply.
The life span of an Alder is around 50-60 years, then they start dying off on you. Which is where our alders stood this year, so we selectively harvested them this summer and used the proceeds to make a nice flat place on my flat challenged property.
Alder had a bad rep as being a weed tree for a long time. However, now the scientist have discovered a lot of good things about Alder. It is a pioneer tree and grows well in recently disturbed areas. (Most of our forest was cleared of Firs in 1960). They are also nitrogen fixers, so they improve the forest soil. Finally they are deciduous, so in the winter they shed their leaves and allow light in to promote the ceder and fir growth.
Our forest now has Maple, Ceder, and fir, with some smaller Alders. I am deciding what kind of trees we are going to plant in the newly made clearings in the forest. I am leaning towards primarily Doug Fir, (Because it makes great firewood) with some nut trees mixed in.
Sorry if we are off topic here, but you asked......
Joined: Sep 14, 2004 Posts: 6627 Location: Rural Virginia
Posted: Sun Sep 28, 2008 11:54 am Post subject: Re: "Bailout Could Worsen the Crisis" ---CBO
Thanks for the summary on alder, careinke. Amateur forestry, which I practice on 75 acres, is my thing. We have no alders here. Our pioneer trees are primarily sweetgum, black gum, red maple, Virginia pine, shortleaf pine, and tulip-poplar, only the latter two of which are really valuable. The climax forest here is mostly white and red oak, tulip-poplar (which persists because it grows so tall), and beech. I think global warming will eventually kill off the beeches, but ours are still doing well. Red oaks are under stress (oak wilt and other problems). _________________ "Actually, humans died out long ago."
---Abused, abandoned hunting dog
"Things have entered a stage where the only change that is possible is for things to get worse."
---Me and my brother
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