Oil's energy contribution has declined by about 12% since 1999. The world's economies have also declined by about 12%. (Using conventional metrics, which are time delayed determinations, this will only be seen in hind sight). The massive destruction of asset values now occurring testifies to it happening.
Peak is well behind us, world economies have peaked and will continue to decline.
Posted: Sat Sep 27, 2008 4:52 pm Post subject: Re: feeding the US without oil
Ludi wrote:
dsula wrote:
You hire 2 hands this year. You hire 4 more next year all the while changing from tractor to horse, one acre at a time, one year at a time.
Is that what you plan to do?
Very few farmers will choose to farm with horses, even if such horses are available to them. Very few people in the US know how to farm with horses. Very very few.
Where will these horses and horse-drawn equipment come from?
Where is the evidence there is any movement toward farming with horses as fuel and fertilizer gets more expensive?
This scenario just seems extremely unrealistic and unlikely to me.
I think we have a real food crisis brewing for the world. Not enough young farmers replacing the old, we will run low of fertilizer as the NG dries up and that food which is grown is devoid of nutrition and not healthy. And to make matter worse, fewer people can even afford to buy produce.
"Amish farmers can't compete in conventual agriculture farming. 40 years ago 90% to 95% of the Amish were farmers. Today less than 10% are farmers." Ffrom: "How the Amish Survive" DVD
And even if the farmers keep up with production, many people cannot afford the high prices of produce. At Krogers a butternut squash was $7, a large apple was $1.85, a rutabaga was $3, an artichoke near $5 and a lemon was $1.35, a bag of cherries was $14.75, ONE organic yam was $8.25.
And these high priced produce are being offered when times are still relatively good What will this stuff sell for when gas is $10 or $15 a gallon? As people buy less produce due to affordability issues and the produce stops selling and rots on the shelves, the farmers will grow less produce that just rots unsold and less potential farmers will be entering that field.
Posted: Sat Sep 27, 2008 6:11 pm Post subject: Re: feeding the US without oil
allenwrench wrote:
And even if the farmers keep up with production, many people cannot afford the high prices of produce. At Krogers a butternut squash was $7, a large apple was $1.85, a rutabaga was $3, an artichoke near $5 and a lemon was $1.35, a bag of cherries was $14.75, ONE organic yam was $8.25.
America will look very different when fed without oil. You will be working on a farm for food and a keg of whisky every 3 month. That's it. 90% of your work output will be for paying for your food. 10% for the rest. You won't be paying health insurance or any other insurance, you won't be paying taxes, you won't buy video games, or dvds or ipods or other chineese crap. You won't go to restaurants, you won't own a car nor a horse nor a buggy. You won't go and sue your employer for making you work long hours, because you know if you loose your job you will starve. You will work and live like the illegal mexicans on farms, just you won't have any money left to spend after you paid for your food. Life again will suck, just the same way it sucked for any peasant until after WW2. And did I mention, when you're 40 you're pretty much done for. At least that way you won't need any retirement savings.
Joined: Sep 16, 2007 Posts: 1476 Location: Oklahoma City, USA
Posted: Sat Sep 27, 2008 8:46 pm Post subject: Re: feeding the US without oil
VMarcHart wrote:
Ludi wrote:
As Cashmere points out, not enough farmers. 2% of the population can't feed the rest without oil.
And I doubt those 2% even know or can feed themselves without oil. Farming is 99.9% mechanized, powered by oil. It will take decades to transit to non-oil farming, ie, renewable farming. Feeding 300M Americans without oil? Fat chance.
Add to that the fact that the majority of that 2% are over 50. I doubt they'll be able to do any kind of heavy work right off. Maybe not ever.
I was just thinking of the Plan C for OKC conference last weekend. There was a farmer there (a fifty-something guy) and he looked like a deer in headlights when they started talking about people coming to his place looking for food. And he's one with a grain silo and all. He said most of the farmers he knows are more like sixty, and they would probably not be able to feed anyone, maybe not even themselves. _________________ Conservation is conservative
It is not the strongest of the species that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the ones most responsive to change. -- Charles Darwin
Joined: Dec 27, 2004 Posts: 13195 Location: naive idiot fantasy world
Posted: Sun Sep 28, 2008 8:07 am Post subject: Re: feeding the US without oil
Yep, most farmers and ranchers are at or near retirement age. Certainly that's the case in my locale. There is no new generation of farmers to pick up where they leave off. _________________ "...powerdown so soft and fluffy you'll think you're living in a pillow." - jboogy
Posted: Sun Sep 28, 2008 8:19 am Post subject: Re: feeding the US without oil
dsula wrote:
allenwrench wrote:
And even if the farmers keep up with production, many people cannot afford the high prices of produce. At Krogers a butternut squash was $7, a large apple was $1.85, a rutabaga was $3, an artichoke near $5 and a lemon was $1.35, a bag of cherries was $14.75, ONE organic yam was $8.25.
America will look very different when fed without oil. You will be working on a farm for food and a keg of whisky every 3 month. That's it. 90% of your work output will be for paying for your food. 10% for the rest. You won't be paying health insurance or any other insurance, you won't be paying taxes, you won't buy video games, or dvds or ipods or other chineese crap. You won't go to restaurants, you won't own a car nor a horse nor a buggy. You won't go and sue your employer for making you work long hours, because you know if you loose your job you will starve. You will work and live like the illegal mexicans on farms, just you won't have any money left to spend after you paid for your food. Life again will suck, just the same way it sucked for any peasant until after WW2. And did I mention, when you're 40 you're pretty much done for. At least that way you won't need any retirement savings.
Sorry no, I don't think so. You cannot farm depleted soil without fertilizer and wihout animals with starving people as labor. The slavery model will not work now.
Posted: Sun Sep 28, 2008 10:18 am Post subject: Re: feeding the US without oil
ReverseEngineer wrote:
Sorry no, I don't think so. You cannot farm depleted soil without fertilizer and wihout animals with starving people as labor. The slavery model will not work now.
See you on the Other Side.
Reverse Engineer
Really? So you just give up? Just like that? That's good news for me, one guy less means more for me. Thanks.
Posted: Sun Sep 28, 2008 10:35 am Post subject: Re: feeding the US without oil
Ludi wrote:
dsula wrote:
Really? So you just give up? Just like that? That's good news for me, one guy less means more for me. Thanks.
So you're planning to be a slave?
nope, I got plenty of healthy farm land, I'm going to be the master.. However we will talk again when you're really hungry and you're ready to shovel horse crap on my farm for a piece of bread and a hot soup. You might be surprised how humble hunger is going to make you.
Joined: Dec 27, 2004 Posts: 13195 Location: naive idiot fantasy world
Posted: Sun Sep 28, 2008 10:48 am Post subject: Re: feeding the US without oil
dsula wrote:
nope, I got plenty of healthy farm land, I'm going to be the master.. However we will talk again when you're really hungry and you're ready to shovel horse crap on my farm for a piece of bread and a hot soup. You might be surprised how humble hunger is going to make you.
_________________ "...powerdown so soft and fluffy you'll think you're living in a pillow." - jboogy
Posted: Sun Sep 28, 2008 12:46 pm Post subject: Re: feeding the US without oil
The primary assumption of many uberdoomers is that fossil fuels will suddenly disappear. One week plenty of gas and diesel, the next week nothing. And from that assumption flows tales of hopelessness and mass dieoff.
But I don't accept that assumption. Petroleum fuels will be available for the rest of our lifetimes. They will continue to rise in price, of course, but there will never be a point where petro fuels are suddenly gone. You may not be able to commute 50 miles to and from work every day anymore, but farms will still have fuel to run their tractors for many years to come.
During WWII the federal government instituted a rationing system for food and fuel. Farmers got priority. Expect to see that again. The Wall Street bailout shows that even conservative Republicans have no problem intervening in the economy when their butts are on the line.
I also see a focus on Midwest industrial ag in this thread. That's one model of production, but here in the Willamette Valley the average farm is only around 100 acres and is family owned and operated. There's been a huge boom in small-scale organic veggie production the last 10 years or so. Most of the CSAs in my area were sold out by early summer, and I see new CSAs being formed all the time, most of them by young couples. Farmers markets are like mosh pits around here, jammed packed with people, young and old.
I'm involved with an organization that gets dozens of volunteers out every weekend to do hard physical labor, often in the rain and cold. All for free, just for the fun of it. These volunteers range in age from teenagers to senior citizens. I think there's an underestimation of the American people in this thread. Not everyone is a 300-pound chain-smoking couch potato, or a metrosexual sissy who's afraid of getting his $500 pair of shoes dirty. Once things get really bad, the Mexicans who currently labor on farms around here will be gone (one way or another) and their jobs will be taken by Americans. I'm not saying they'll like doing that kind of labor every day, but we all do what we got to do. Who doesn't hate their job? I'm not looking forward to going to work tomorrow.
As for horses, there's a surplus in my state, too many to take care of. Enough to immediately convert from tractor to horse farming? Probably not. But enough to get started. As I said, oil is not going to suddenly become unavailable. This is the fallacy from which all the other fallacies flow.
It will be a painful transition, but assuming the worst case scenario is not helpful. Better to plan for the most likely scenario, which is not dieoff (<1% probability), but a Greater Depression where petro fuels continue to get more expensive and probably become subject to rationing, but do not suddenly disappear (>50% probability).
Then there are biofuels and electricity. I know the former is poo pooed here, but that's just more uberdoomer hyperpessimism IMHO---they're part of the solution. As for the latter, we have big dams here in the Northwest, lots and lots of big dams that produce lots and lots of electricity. These will be in place for the rest of my lifetime.
But I think we can all agree that our lifestyles will have to change radically, and that our "standard of living" will fall, probably precipitously. I'm not saying the future will be easy, but giving up is not an option. _________________ "A little stored food and Bob's your uncle." --TT
Joined: May 26, 2008 Posts: 1190 Location: Chicago, IL
Posted: Sun Sep 28, 2008 2:34 pm Post subject: Re: feeding the US without oil
Loki wrote:
...there will never be a point where petro fuels are suddenly gone.
Er ... well ... yes, there will be, perhaps not in your life time, but yes there will be. Just like wells dry up and one day you have oil and the next you don't, the same is for the sum of wells. Oil is a finite resource. And then there's the economic aspect, that there might still be oil left in all wells, but it could be too costly to extract that oil, and one day is here, the next it's suddenly gone.
Posted: Sun Sep 28, 2008 2:41 pm Post subject: Re: feeding the US without oil
Quote:
But I don't accept that assumption. Petroleum fuels will be available for the rest of our lifetimes. They will continue to rise in price, of course, but there will never be a point where petro fuels are suddenly gone. You may not be able to commute 50 miles to and from work every day anymore, but farms will still have fuel to run their tractors for many years to come.
This completely misses the point.
If your local station doesn't have gasoline, then fuel is gone. Or if you live in a part of the country where there's shortages, then the fuel is just gone.
It's as gone as if all fuel on earth had disappeared.
If fuel gets so expensive that you don't have enough money in your wallet to buy it, then the fuel is just gone.
Gone is gone -- whether "run out," "shortage," or "rationed by price."
It's a difference without a distinction. _________________ "By the time individuals discover that remaining resources will not be adequate for the next generation, the next generation has already been born. " David Price
Joined: Dec 27, 2004 Posts: 13195 Location: naive idiot fantasy world
Posted: Sun Sep 28, 2008 6:10 pm Post subject: Re: feeding the US without oil
Loki wrote:
The primary assumption of many uberdoomers is that fossil fuels will suddenly disappear. One week plenty of gas and diesel, the next week nothing. And from that assumption flows tales of hopelessness and mass dieoff.
I actually haven't seen anyone arguing that. Just that we won't be able to afford it, like Killjoy says.
Maybe you're misunderstanding a lot of the doomers.... _________________ "...powerdown so soft and fluffy you'll think you're living in a pillow." - jboogy
Posted: Mon Sep 29, 2008 4:04 am Post subject: Re: feeding the US without oil
to combine a couple of points., There may sooner rather then later come a time when gas cost over $25 per gallon. You can buy all you want at that price but thats the price, This will make commuting to work in a private car a thing of the past and create the economic upheaval the doomers go on about. At $25 pg farmers will still plant and harvest with tractors but the prices they charge for their crops will be so high many will not be able to afford food and the collapsed government will not be able to do anything about it. being out of affordable food in the city the children of the farmers knowing where the food is will return to the family farm to help out dear old dad and use his knowledge to relearn farming plus put their college educations to good use finding ways to grow crops using much less $25 dollar fuel. At what point they would return to draft animals for tillage if ever would depend on both oil supply and the quality of their land plus the local security situation. Some will convert some of their land to producing biofuels to make themselves energy independant. Mono croppers will diversifie and reintroduce livestock to their operation to secure the fertilizer they produce. farming might actually be really profitable for the first time in decades.
There that should give people something to sputter about.
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. However we will talk again when you're really hungry and you're ready to shovel horse crap on my farm for a piece of bread and a hot soup. You might be surprised how humble hunger is going to make you.
to combine a couple of points., There may sooner rather then later come a time when gas cost over $25 per gallon. You can buy all you want at that price but thats the price, This will make commuting to work in a private car a thing of the past and create the economic upheaval the doomers go on about. At $25 pg farmers will still plant and harvest with tractors but the prices they charge for their crops will be so high many will not be able to afford food and the collapsed government will not be able to do anything about it. being out of affordable food in the city the children of the farmers knowing where the food is will return to the family farm to help out dear old dad and use his knowledge to relearn farming plus put their college educations to good use finding ways to grow crops using much less $25 dollar fuel. At what point they would return to draft animals for tillage if ever would depend on both oil supply and the quality of their land plus the local security situation. Some will convert some of their land to producing biofuels to make themselves energy independant. Mono croppers will diversifie and reintroduce livestock to their operation to secure the fertilizer they produce. farming might actually be really profitable for the first time in decades.
