Oil's energy contribution has declined by about 12% since 1999. The world's economies have also declined by about 12%. (Using conventional metrics, which are time delayed determinations, this will only be seen in hind sight). The massive destruction of asset values now occurring testifies to it happening.
Peak is well behind us, world economies have peaked and will continue to decline.
Posted: Tue Jul 29, 2008 2:11 am Post subject: Re: Two More Bank failures tonight!
MattS wrote:
...
Seahorse was upset that people, OF2 in particular, aren't taking a topic he finds dear as seriously as he is.
...
*warning may be controversial reply*
I have never remembered OF2 taking anything seriously.
So getting upset at OF2 for not doing something he has never done before is kinda pointless.
Furthermore like what Homesteader said on the first page:
"Geez, I dunno SH, maybe we should stop feeding the troll."
Is there anyone here upset at Graeme's spam-a-lot "technology threads"?
I applaud the moderators for consolidating his threads.
Or how about JohnDenver's repetitive one trick pony arguments that have no point.
But my all time personal favorite would be yesplease for being a habitual liar.
He boldly claimed he could get a $7,000 electric car that can go for over 100 miles per charge. --> BULL SH!T
Trolls do NOT bother me.
Once you learn to spot them from a mile away and quickly realize you will never get a serious discussion from them.....it's actually kind of difficult to get upset.
Maybe Seahorse should learn to spot a troll when he see one so he doesn't waste his time and get upset next time?
The *ignore* button exists for a reason.
Joined: Sep 25, 2004 Posts: 4726 Location: Boston, MA
Posted: Tue Jul 29, 2008 8:44 pm Post subject: Re: Two More Bank failures tonight!
The basic problem is that the US federal government and average citizen is living well beyond its means.
We're going to have a long string of lean years before the imbalances are corrected.
The dollar will continue to come under pressure as US growth slows. At the same time, interest rates will have to rise in response.
Consumers won't be able to pile on more debt. The government will have to cut the deficit or lose its AAA credit rating.
We're all going to have to learn to live with less.
I can't predict which bank will fail next or where the S&P will be at this point next year but I like to think that I can pick out general trends.
And the general trend I see is that the US does not matter as much as it used to. Normally high commodity prices slow down economic growth and lead to lower commodity prices. That's not happening right now because of the rapid economic development in the Asian countries.
We could actually see a recession in the US, Japan, EuroZone, UK while still maintaining growth in China and the Middle East.
The whole world hasn't decoupled from the US (as is evidenced by the recession in Europe) but China has enough domestic demand that it could avoid a recession by spending some of that "savings glut" that Bernanke used to talk about.
As for the actual issue at hand, bank failures. The largest banks are not in immediate jeopardy of collapsing thanks to unprecedented access to the discount window. Once the Feds decided that JP Morgan could borrow money from the discount window to buy Bear Stearns, we opened up a can of worms. The Feds then decided that Fannie and Freddie deserved access to an unlimited line of credit from the US Treasury at very generous rates. Now "homeowners" are going to see their mortgages backed up by the Treasury to the tune of $300 BILLION. It's gotten out of control.
Does anyone expect them to sit by idly while Citigroup or Bank of America shut down?
I strongly agree with Bill's Fleckenstein article on MSN. We've become a bailout nation. American taxpayers are going to foot the bill for any crisis.
Just like last time the banking industry collapsed in the 1990s.
The system won't collapse because it's not in the interests of TPTB to let it collapse. They will lobby and are currently lobbying Congress to spend more taxpayer money to glue everything back to together. Maybe they can patch it up for another 15 years before the same people get into the same mess again.
The collapse comes in the form of a lowered standard of living for the average person. There won't be a sudden crash, just the slow and steady erosion of our currency and the real economy.
The result is the same, it's just not as noticeable.
And with that I go to bed and try to figure out a way not to read as much news tomorrow.
(seahorse, is this what you were looking for?) _________________ "www.peakoil.com is the Myspace of the Apocalypse."
Joined: May 30, 2008 Posts: 297 Location: On the highway, or the water somewhere!
Posted: Tue Jul 29, 2008 11:32 pm Post subject: Re: Two More Bank failures tonight!
Tyler_JC wrote:
<snip>
The collapse comes in the form of a lowered standard of living for the average person. There won't be a sudden crash, just the slow and steady erosion of our currency and the real economy.
The result is the same, it's just not as noticeable.
And with that I go to bed and try to figure out a way not to read as much news tomorrow.
(seahorse, is this what you were looking for?)
OK I enjoyed the reasoning, but I have a question for you.
Is there no precipice events that might inadvertently cause a collapse you have not foreseen? Maybe not a banking closure...but some other facet of the economy affected beyond repair by this gradual loss of living standard?
Less purchasing power will result in less purchasing. What about the financial stake in big box retail outlets?
maybe even just one small unforeseen effect of the strangulation of our economy..
Would you be surprised to know that 70 percent of everything moving in the USA is being moved by a small business trucker who owns less than 5 trucks, and 50% is being moved by one or two truck owner companies... They might be allied through lease to a larger entity, but the investment and expenses are born by small independents.... if purchasing drops 25 percent, but 50 percent of available power goes off line to move products what will happen...
The railroads cannot take up the slack, at the National association of rail roads meeting in Chicago they admitted to themselves that they were less than 10 percent from complete gridlock due to over loaded systems now, and they called for billions of dollars in new tracks and ROW.. Those cannot be built fast or with American steel and ties. Without transport and investment in manufacturing infrastructure that is now gone.
My reason to bring this up is my belief that while your scenario is correct as far as it goes, but it does not take into account the sudden collapse of some lynch pin that results in a sudden inability to support the infrastructure we now depend upon..
The image of those soviet citizens standing in line for hours waiting until one truck load of bread arrived at the retail store while the entire output of some distant bakery was pushed into the pit by a bulldozer for lack of transport comes to mind for some reason. _________________ Courtesy and Courage, Sincerity and Self-control, Honor and Loyalty...a Code to Live By!
Where is my wooden pitchfork and torch anyway? I may need them for a visit to the castle soon!
Joined: Oct 15, 2004 Posts: 2258 Location: Arkansas
Posted: Sun Sep 28, 2008 4:40 pm Post subject: Re: Two More Bank failures tonight!
In light of recent events, I'm bumping this thread. When I started the thread, I was acknowledging a trend of bank failures and looming financial problems, and telling people they should be alarmed and start taking action to protect themselves. Oilfinder and others tried to dismiss the significance of the looming problems, like in this post:
OilFinder2 wrote:
I'd heard of Indymac, but not the others. Not sure if Freddie and Fannie are actual "banks," but I suppose you could call them that if you wanted to.
This won't be the first time a bunch of banks have failed. And it won't be the last, either. Oh well.
The President is now warning us to pass an unprecedented bailout to prevent an absolute collapse in the entire world's financial system. Oh well.
Why bring this old thread back to life? Because people need to go back and look at those who said this was no big deal, and give them zero credibility on any other issue they post on, bc they either don't know what the hell they are talking about or because they have an agenda, meaning, they may be a paid shill working these boards. A lot has been written over the last year about various interest groups using these internet shills, and I'm sure they are on this forum as well. Oilfinder was wrong on this financial crisis, and he is wrong on the oil issues as well.
Posted: Sun Sep 28, 2008 5:01 pm Post subject: Re: Two More Bank failures tonight!
What crisis? What are you talkking about? I don't see no crisis. I got money out of Washington mutual just on friday, it hasn't failed.
And it will be open tomorrow again, they said so.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Sun Sep 28, 2008 5:14 pm Post subject: Re: Two More Bank failures tonight!
countrygal wrote:
What crisis? What are you talkking about? I don't see no crisis. I got money out of Washington mutual just on friday, it hasn't failed.
And it will be open tomorrow again, they said so.
OF2 - The holding company for WaMu has declared bankruptcy and little if anything will be left for the $28 billion that bondholders, such as the Vanguard Group, invested in the parent company.
Using the WaMu template, bond and stock investors in other banks can expect their investment to be completely wiped out in the event of an FDIC takeover. This will not only discourage stock and bond holders from investing in any bank, but will make ordinary business persons skeptical about keeping their cash in any suspect bank.
So far, the Fed has had to pump about $600 billion in new cash into the banking system, being financial companies can no longer borrow that amount themselves.
If you don't think this is a crisis, one can only conclude that you are intentionally posting disinformation. _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Joined: Mar 26, 2008 Posts: 1424 Location: Seattle
Posted: Sun Sep 28, 2008 8:02 pm Post subject: Re: Two More Bank failures tonight!
seahorse wrote:
In light of recent events, I'm bumping this thread. When I started the thread, I was acknowledging a trend of bank failures and looming financial problems, and telling people they should be alarmed and start taking action to protect themselves. Oilfinder and others tried to dismiss the significance of the looming problems, like in this post:
OilFinder2 wrote:
I'd heard of Indymac, but not the others. Not sure if Freddie and Fannie are actual "banks," but I suppose you could call them that if you wanted to.
This won't be the first time a bunch of banks have failed. And it won't be the last, either. Oh well.
The President is now warning us to pass an unprecedented bailout to prevent an absolute collapse in the entire world's financial system. Oh well.
Why bring this old thread back to life? Because people need to go back and look at those who said this was no big deal, and give them zero credibility on any other issue they post on, bc they either don't know what the hell they are talking about or because they have an agenda, meaning, they may be a paid shill working these boards. A lot has been written over the last year about various interest groups using these internet shills, and I'm sure they are on this forum as well. Oilfinder was wrong on this financial crisis, and he is wrong on the oil issues as well.
This won't be the first time a bunch of banks have failed. And it won't be the last, either. Oh well.
How does that make me wrong?
I suppose it's turned out to be bigger than I thought it would be a few months ago, but civilization will not come to a screeching halt because of this. I guarantee it! _________________ Abundance - what a concept!
Joined: Mar 26, 2008 Posts: 1424 Location: Seattle
Posted: Sun Sep 28, 2008 8:06 pm Post subject: Re: Two More Bank failures tonight!
BTW, you must be desperate and/or paranoid if you think anyone on this board is a "paid shrill." It's not worth anyone's while to pay someone to post opposing views on a freakin' internet board. _________________ Abundance - what a concept!
Posted: Sun Sep 28, 2008 11:32 pm Post subject: Re: Two More Bank failures tonight!
Citibank is having trouble too.
In the absense of this bailout, the Dow would have gone to 8300 the week before last. See Matt S's board. After that I think it would have leveled our around 7000. The deal with JPM taking over WAMU should put a floor in around 9000 and the bailout should bring this bottom up to around 10,500 for now. Expect the market to be trading in the 11,000s for the next few weeks. There should still be good entry points into oil and natural gas drillers over the next 2 months.
Posted: Sun Sep 28, 2008 11:37 pm Post subject: Re: Two More Bank failures tonight!
Whether it works or not is debatable, but I've never heard it disputed that people get paid for this. Rather I've read a lot of references to this being a pretty common practice for corporations for a while, and the GOP more recently. If you want a book reference, pick up "Coercion" by Douglas Rushkoff. If you want online resources, I'm sure I can find some for you. Probably even applications to get that job.
Let me know.
OilFinder2 wrote:
BTW, you must be desperate and/or paranoid if you think anyone on this board is a "paid shrill." It's not worth anyone's while to pay someone to post opposing views on a freakin' internet board.
See ya in the bread line, Pangloss. Would suggest you watch or read the Grapes of Wrath but ah ffccck it what's the point.
I was first to spot the iceberg in that thread, do I win a cushioned seat in a lifeboat? _________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
C'mon man, who're you gonna believe?
Joined: Jun 09, 2008 Posts: 48 Location: Philippines
Posted: Mon Sep 29, 2008 2:11 am Post subject: Re: Two More Bank failures tonight!
Guys, will you please calm down... yes, there's a financial crisis, yes, it will be tougher times for many, no, the world is not going to be sucked into a black hole and be torn apart by the gravital forces (at least not in a few billion years).
The financial system had to fail because it's based on unsustainable principles. This will have effects beyond the system itself. Negative effects. HOWEVER. Only people who are very prone to doomsday thinking and unable to keep a balanced view on the situation believe that this will lead to total collapse of society, anarchy, mass death, etc. You're just making fools of yourselves crisis maximizing and exaggerating. The real situation is bad enough as it is, there's no need to make it look even worse than it is.
Joined: Dec 04, 2006 Posts: 251 Location: End of the plateau
Posted: Mon Sep 29, 2008 2:53 am Post subject: Re: Two More Bank failures tonight!
Dont_Panic wrote:
f. Negative effects. HOWEVER. Only people who are very prone to doomsday thinking and unable to keep a balanced view on the situation believe that this will lead to total collapse of society, anarchy, mass death, etc. You're just making fools of yourselves crisis maximizing and exaggerating. s.
It seems like your gvmnt is preparing for such an event.
Joined: Jun 09, 2008 Posts: 48 Location: Philippines
Posted: Mon Sep 29, 2008 5:22 am Post subject: Re: Two More Bank failures tonight!
This site is clearly not the place for inteliggent discussions....
1: You have no idea who my "gvmnt" is.
2: Don't waste my time with random 50 page conspiracy sites and a vague hint that somewhere on those pages, there's evidence that "my gvmnt" is preparing for something.
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