Oil's energy contribution has declined by about 12% since 1999. The world's economies have also declined by about 12%. (Using conventional metrics, which are time delayed determinations, this will only be seen in hind sight). The massive destruction of asset values now occurring testifies to it happening.
Peak is well behind us, world economies have peaked and will continue to decline.
Posted: Mon Sep 29, 2008 2:12 pm Post subject: Re: Bailout Bill Fails merged thread
Yay! The gangrenous leg was cut off!!!
But how far does the infection go???
Is it systemic? Treatable? Who the fark knows.... _________________ "By the time individuals discover that remaining resources will not be adequate for the next generation, the next generation has already been born. " David Price
Posted: Mon Sep 29, 2008 2:20 pm Post subject: Re: Dow Plunges 700+ points as House Bill Vote Recounts!
You know what is Fark crazy! when they try to help us out with their "stimulus package" they send $600... When they decide they want to fix the problem they send the 700 billion to the big banks!
Wtf why not give each american home owner 20% to pay down their mortgage... Ta da now the value of homes that have been leveraged against are worth as much as they owe. This instantly give the banks money and helps free up some of the debt that is so heavily weighed against consumers... WHICH IS THE REAL ROOT OF THE PROBLEM.
But they wont do that, that is how I know when Mr paulson gets up and speaks about trying to help the American people, he is full of crap.
Right now they are going to give the banks tons of money and buy the homes at 50 cents on the dollar. So basically the government will buy my home mortgage for $50,000 when I owe $100,000.
K so they are going to use my money to buy my house!
So they screw you there, now you still have to pay the $100,000 you owe on the house. Tack on the interest accrued and you get a bill roughly around $135,000 by the time you pay it all back, then you get to pay back the money the government borrowed to buy your house, ya know the $50,000 in tax money. So my $100,000 house ends up costing me $185,000!
Or if I default then the government buys the house with my money for $50,000.... then I have to pay back the bank $50,000 to make up the difference that I owe them, then through taxes I have to pay back the other $50,000? Plus I will have to pay taxes on the difference because it is seen as a capital gain!
Please someone tell me I'm way off base! _________________ Tired of high gas prices? Then stop driving to work, duh..... Learn to Work from home
Joined: Sep 30, 2005 Posts: 473 Location: Baltimore County, Md
Posted: Mon Sep 29, 2008 2:22 pm Post subject: Re: Bailout Bill Fails merged thread
what happened today was a partisan Fark, with each side trying to paper the other wioth blame for the whole facking mess.
i noticed that the nuanced approach to selling the bailout as a financial resue plan failed miserably this weekend. everyone switched back to bailout by sunday. so now, sterner measure will be required.
i fully expect TS will be allowed to hit TF and the dow will collapse to about 7000, give or take a 1000. people will get their 401K statement and learn they have been skinned by HALF and immediately begin a massive run on the remaining instituions of finance. that will result in a bank holiday which will completely freak people out and a bigger badder version of this bill will surely pass IMMEDIATELY thereafter.
i'd like to believe the bill was scuttled by principled opposition, but we all know that we have the best CONgress money can buy. those feckless leeches are simply trying to preserve their place suckling place on the nation's teat.
mark my words. at the end of the day, the taxpayers will own every worthless piece of crap derivative ever created. a massive transfer of wealth has already been engineered. all that remains to lock it in is a market crash, a dollar collapse and then a nice long bout of deflation and depression.
the fix is in. the dow was down less than 250 points in the AM when my retuers ticker told me that today would be one of the biggest down days for world markets in 20 years. we finish the day dwon 600 and change. I think they fuxed up and released that story early.
Joined: May 27, 2007 Posts: 1776 Location: The Post Peak Oil Historian
Posted: Mon Sep 29, 2008 2:23 pm Post subject: Re: Dow Plunges 700+ points as House Bill Vote Recounts!
Dow Closes down 777.68
More important, the NYSE which is heavy financials, closed down 685.40 at 7204.97, an 8.69% drop in one day.
Just noticed Nasdaq closed down 9.14%
The VIX which measures volitility is at 46.72, an extremely astronomical level. Up 34.48%
This is sometimes called the 'fear' index. From this they are absolutely terrified.
Maybe we will have a global market meltdown overnight.
I don't think I have ever seen it over 30 before, the highest being when Bear Sterns folded.
Does anyone know where the VIX was on the first day of trading after 9/11? _________________ In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act. - George Orwell
It riles them to believe that you perceive the webs they weave. - Moody Blues
Last edited by Cid_Yama on Mon Sep 29, 2008 2:39 pm; edited 5 times in total
Posted: Mon Sep 29, 2008 2:25 pm Post subject: Re: Dow Plunges 700+ points as House Bill Vote Recounts!
Quote:
My congressman from Maine voted aye too, though I wrote him specifically not to. That situation might be serious, but current symptoms reflect a long term problem and I couldn't find any convincing arguments the bailout would be effective long term.
That would be that non-entity, Tom Allen. I got to meet him in person. He's a nothing, a nobody. He mouthed platitudes about "alternative energy."
I'm not voting for him, and I'm certainly not voting for repug Susan Collins (whose Senate seat Allen is running for).
No, I'm just going to wipe my ass with the ballot. _________________ "By the time individuals discover that remaining resources will not be adequate for the next generation, the next generation has already been born. " David Price
Joined: Sep 30, 2005 Posts: 473 Location: Baltimore County, Md
Posted: Mon Sep 29, 2008 2:26 pm Post subject: Re: Bailout Bill Fails merged thread
pardon me... down 777.
the bid and ask were corrupted all day. i swear to god, the market finished down 600 and change as i tyoped that post, i went back to the tickewr and were down 777.
Posted: Mon Sep 29, 2008 2:28 pm Post subject: Re: Bailout bill fails
The bailout bill might have failed, but the Fed still managed to play with over $600B today, which barely made the news. Even with today's bailout currency "swap" arrangements, the DJI fell almost 800 points and the Nasdaq dropped (a record?) 200.
Posted: Mon Sep 29, 2008 2:30 pm Post subject: Re: Bailout Bill Fails merged thread
Cashmere wrote:
Hey Trout, riddle me this.
You're going on and on about how bad things will be if we don't enact SOMETHING NOW.
Why are your convinced that this won't be just another temporary fix that leads to EVEN GREATER pain in a year or two?
You're entirely missing that aspect of it.
You're advocating burning the furniture NOW because it's getting cold.
But tell me Joel, how unwise will you look in 1 year when we're cold and sitting on the floor?
Or will we still have floor boards under your plan?
The problem is how the markets react. Yes I agree there is a major problem in our financial markets and how the average american lives on credit. However I also feel if something doesn't happen soon then it will continue to get worse and possible overshoot to the downside and have much worse affects.
If we do something soon then it at least gives the markets some time to figure it out. Rather than panic selling and continuing financial collapse.
You guys want to world to do something about peak oil now rather than later right??? Why is this different??? We are doomed in the long run according to you all.
Posted: Mon Sep 29, 2008 2:33 pm Post subject: Re: Dow Plunges 700+ points as House Bill Vote Recounts!
On the other side of the coin, I just read that over $700 billion of stock were bought in the market today. Someone must think matters aren't too bad. I took advantage of the situation today and bought back my favorite NG exploration stock for $89 after I sold at $106 a couple of weeks ago. I usually buy back after an 8% drop but this time decided to watch the market closely and pick a bottom. Think I came close. Don't ask me to explain it but whenever the market drops so do most of the NG stocks. I expect in the next 2 to 4 weeks it will jump back into the low 100's....especially with winter coming and so much NG still shut-in in the GOM.
As I said, I've given up trying to understand this market. I've been riding this same peak/trough cycle for months and every few weeks make a trade that averages around 8% FOR THAT PERIOD. The market completely ignores the fundamentals. All the analysts, with out exception, liked this stock a lot when it was $127. I never wanted to be a short term traded and resisted these cycles for a couple of months. I don't know how long this roller coaster will run but right now it looks like I'll average around a 30%+ return per annum.
Joined: Nov 15, 2007 Posts: 346 Location: US East Coast
Posted: Mon Sep 29, 2008 2:33 pm Post subject: Re: Dow Plunges 700+ points as House Bill Vote Recounts!
americandream wrote:
IgnoranceIsBliss wrote:
No re-vote today. Down 667 (7.3%) as the closing bell rings.
This could just be a trick to get this beast passed.
Step 1: Vote NO, then watch market tank.
Step 2: Watch public panic and say we must do something!
Step 3: Vote YES and pass a "rescue" package which will only serve to get us through the election.
I suspect that the Democrats must suffer from an intelligence deficit. The only one's who seem to be benefitting from this fiasco in terms of "integrity" appear to be the Republicans who created this mess in the first place!
I'm cynical. I take this as a political ploy by the Republicans to embarrass the Dems. I don't think either party has any integrity. Just political gamesmanship. The Republicans don't give a hoot about Bush as he is a lame duck nor McCain as he is (at this point) unelectable. So the only thing they give a crap about is protecting their own districts.
I don't know if this bill was good or bad, right or wrong. And they don't know either.
Two years from retirement and PISSED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Screw it I'm voting for Carlin - George Carlin. Dead he is better than that whole bunch put together.
!@#$%^&*( _________________ When going through hell, keep going! Churchill
Nothing is ever lost by courtesy. It is the the cheapest of pleasures, costs nothing, and conveys much. E Wiman
I know there’s no solution, so I just enjoy what’s here and I enjoy the journey G Carlin
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