Oil's energy contribution has declined by about 12% since 1999. The world's economies have also declined by about 12%. (Using conventional metrics, which are time delayed determinations, this will only be seen in hind sight). The massive destruction of asset values now occurring testifies to it happening.
Peak is well behind us, world economies have peaked and will continue to decline.
Posted: Thu Sep 25, 2008 10:36 am Post subject: Re: Chinese Banks Told To Halt Lending To US Banks
I would think you're right Rubin. Do you have any handle on how much money the Chinese have tied up in the US economy? That would just be an aside to the export question.
I think about Chinese internal future often. I've spent some time there (adopted my daughter there in 2000). I wonder if an economic upheaval could lead to a true revolution. On the one hand, the military controls all the lethal hardware. But I also respect the populace's ability to go against the odds when sufficiently motivate.... no matter the personal cost.
Joined: Aug 15, 2006 Posts: 282 Location: 'bout 15 miles from EU's eastern border (thankfully on the inside)
Posted: Sun Sep 28, 2008 2:44 pm Post subject: Re: Chinese Banks Told To Halt Lending To US Banks
mattduke wrote:
The trade imbalance between China and the US is a total loss to China. They have nothing to show for all the products they have shipped to the US except irredeemable paper. When the arrangement ends, the Chinese will find themselves drowning in products to enjoy.
When credit freezes up and americans are left without their source of cheap paper, the chinese will use theirs to buy usa right from under you. They may be working for you now, but soon it may be the other way around.
Posted: Mon Sep 29, 2008 5:46 am Post subject: Re: Chinese Banks Told To Halt Lending To US Banks
I don't see how the trade imbalace has been anything but a gain for the Chinese. As their money had no value in global trade they've needed the US $'3, as well as everyone elses, to pay for their imports. On the other hand, they are sitting on a lot of US Treasury notes as well as other debt securites of US companies. This should cerianly be of concern to them.
Posted: Mon Sep 29, 2008 6:48 am Post subject: Re: Chinese Banks Told To Halt Lending To US Banks
vtsnowedin wrote:
The Chinese have a big problem here. All the stuff we were going to buy from them for Christmas is already in the container on the ship. What happens to their booming industrial sector if by Thanksgiving the US is in a full depression and half that stuff just sits in Walmart unsold? There is 27000 former employees of investment banks that nolonger need a new laptop or PDA for the forseeable future and lots more layoffs where those came from. If China shuts off our credit they will shoot themselves in the foot. Maybe its already to late but they must be scratching their heads trying to find a course that isn't a total disaster.
It may be on a container in a ship but the ships now are being docked and aren't moving goods. I really don't know to what extent how much activity has been curtailed but I see the likelihood of product shortages on cheap consumables that we have become dependent upon i.e. generic medicines etc. Reuters on Friday issued some news releases regarding this from a press release issued by Excel Maritime (EXM).
Who knows maybe this will carry over to the tanker industry?
At least we do have consensus in one area: It probably will have a domino effect for the job market in pretty much all industries
Joined: Oct 06, 2006 Posts: 1371 Location: East Texas
Posted: Tue Sep 30, 2008 7:29 am Post subject: Re: Chinese Banks Told To Halt Lending To US Banks
lys3rg0 wrote:
When credit freezes up and americans are left without their source of cheap paper, the chinese will use theirs to buy usa right from under you. They may be working for you now, but soon it may be the other way around.
Always a fun doom fantasy until the Chinese property owner receives his property tax bill due in US dollars on the inflated value of the property. Sure, there are *some* things that foreign interests would like to buy some degree of ownership in; but pervasive it will not be.
I don't think China would be to pleased at going from large scale financier to even larger scale tax payer.
Its one of the backstops of American government; in the end, there are few if any limits on how much a state can tax physical pieces of property. _________________ Yes, we are. As we are.
And so shall we remain; Until the end.
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