Oil's energy contribution has declined by about 12% since 1999. The world's economies have also declined by about 12%. (Using conventional metrics, which are time delayed determinations, this will only be seen in hind sight). The massive destruction of asset values now occurring testifies to it happening.
Peak is well behind us, world economies have peaked and will continue to decline.
Posted: Tue Sep 30, 2008 9:04 am Post subject: Re: Do you believe that the crash is planned?
Actually, I believe Paulson and crew framed the original plan deliberately to hurde Congress. It was such an obvious power play that the legislators could not possibly let it pass.
Thus, all the legislators have their fingerprints on this and all are now on the hook.
The elite can always take advantage, no matter which way the wind blows. They have insider information and plenty of resources, including control over all your money. You include leveraging in that and any fraction of a percent swing will mean millions and billions to them.
Consider Warren Buffet, he's not a genius at all. He may have worked hard to accumulate his initial fortune, but now he's personally worth 50 billion dollars. Putting 5 billion in a bank puts him in absolutely no personal risk at all.
dohboi wrote:
What surprised me was how short and simple the original Paulson bailout plan was.
If they really wanted to pull a fast one, why didn't they make it long and complex like the Patriot Act so that all those busy (and lazy in some cases) legislators wouldn't bother to read it and would just pass it on trust and fear.
Either they thought they would be able to push this through easily because people would be so frightened by prospects of a global financial meltdown, or they are starting to get a bit lazy and sloppy themselves. Or maybe they didn't think things would come apart this fast this soon.
As Klein and others point out, they don't have to plan the collapse to take advantage of it. But you do have to have a plan ready to push through. They seem to have fallen down a bit on that second part this time.
_________________ Gravity is not a force, it is a boundary layer.
Everything is coincident.
Love: the state of suspended anticipation.
To get any appreciable distance from the Earth in
a sensible amount of time, you must lie.
Posted: Tue Sep 30, 2008 9:40 am Post subject: Re: Do you believe that the crash is planned?
On a more immediate note, it should be noted how effectively the bailout drama and politics (Palin) have kept the gas shortages in the southeast a regional panic. Had the gas problems been the #1 news story, with analysts all discussing the fact that gasoline stockpiles are at their lowest point in 40 years, we could be having a run on the pumps.
Slow crash versus sudden one. _________________ At 1% annual growth, human bodies will incorporate every gram in the observable universe in approximately 10,170 years.
Posted: Tue Sep 30, 2008 10:08 am Post subject: Re: Do you believe that the crash is planned?
the current financial meltdown was certainly planned, but it's only in its beginning stages - the dollar is still alive for now. for the last half a dozen years, expert after expert, author after author, has come out saying, 'oooh, big crap is coming down the pike - this cannot be sustained.' it was predicted well in advance by insiders and outsiders alike. everyone at PO knew that this was just a matter of time.
so this huge crisis is coming, and what kind of policy do we see? anything to exacerbate the problem - tax cuts, stimulus checks, rampant corruption and waste, two massive war efforts, a huge new homeland security bureaucracy, bailout after bailout, one liquidity injection after another...
and this, coming from the group that did the same thing in the reagan years, the same group that says out of both sides of its mouth - 'deficits don't matter' and 'we want to drown government in a bathtub of debt'.
this does look quite a lot like what perkins and stiglitz have talked about, it looks a lot like argentina, and in fact it looks quite a lot like 9.11.
IMHO, the point of this mess is to set up a new world financial system. out of chaos, order.
it kind of comes down to the age-old conspiracy conundrum: are these folks staggeringly incompetent (yet smart enough to attain office, consolidate power, and implement their policies), or are they actually doing this on purpose?
as for the 'complexity' argument - e.g. XYZ is too complex, it requires too much information and too much power, there's too much uncertainty for a plan like that to work -
when you look at the molecules of a gas, from one perspective, you see utter chaos. there are millions and billions of little particles zipping around and you have no idea what any one of them is going to do next. way too complex to predict their behavior!
but zoom out a little, and isolate the relevant variables, and all of a sudden you find you can manipulate the lot of them, simply by knowing what kind of particles they are, how many there are, what kind of pressure they're under, and what the temperature is!
don't you think that, by this point in time, the manipulation of populations has been figured out with similar precision?
Posted: Tue Sep 30, 2008 11:46 am Post subject: Re: Do you believe that the crash is planned?
Roccland wrote:
RdSnt wrote:
The conspiracy theory reasoning is almost always way to complicated to execute successfully.
Not really...
1) create a new pearl harbor - check
2) drops interest rates to 1% - check
3) loan money to those who can't pay and give them 3-5 years to prove it - check (ARMs were typically 3-5 year fuzes).
4) leverage this bad debt 80:1 check
Here's the kicker and my thesis...this collapse was set to occur precisley when PO hit. See PO was to usher in economic collapse anyway.
If you are king of the word...you would do this on your terms. And "they" have.
Meh.
I feel like Occam's Razor cuts this kind of thing to shreds. Here's a simple premise that explains everything. We have all been living beyond our means since the Reagan Revolution and "morning in America."
That was the day we all created the Matrix, to use an analogy people here enjoy. And chose to believe in the divine market and wealth through optimism, rather than to put on the cardigan sweater of real-life like Carter fricking asked us to.
Yes. It is directly tied into Peak Oil, because that fundamentally defines what "our means" means. It is no accident that morning in America occurred at precisely the same time as the production curve went convex: still rising, but every day at a slower rate. Reagan was swept in on a peevish adolescent, "screw you mom and dad! you can't make me get a job. i'm just gonna follow the Dead around and live on miracles." Actually, very much like that because it was those very same Dead following boomers who after highjacking the honorable tradition of hard-working social liberalism and turning it into a dreadlocked key party circus, turned easily into single issue Golem voters.... "hiss... my precious taxeses...."
Yes. The current financial meltdown was inevitable, but that's different from saying it was planned. The complexities of debt derivatives are all designed to achieve the same goal which is to sequester return from risk for some temporal window of opportunity. A by-product of the common and increasing usage of these things is a generalized increase in leverage, AKA, reduction of savings, AKA, living beyond our means, AKA, using more energy than we are creating or finding.
Why build some story about planned events when it's all just logical. The market collapse isn't manufactured lto "mask" peak oil. It IS peak oil. And the fact that it arrives at exactly the same time as peak production need not have been planned to have been necessary, in fact it is mathematically necessary.
increases in economic leverage fundamentally require increases in energy input. if the energy increase is slow, you can always double down on leverage to create economic expansion. but as soon as the increase in energy stalls at zero, you can multiply that zero as many times as you want, and still get zero.
i think people on this board put far too much emphasis on the meaning of this bailout as a public event. the difference between "public" and "private" money is so arbitrary right now. We collectively agreed to live this way, publicly, by the politicians we put in office and the dances we made them do, privately by the unsupportable ways we've lived.
someone here posted this faux-pithy quotable that "taxes are just one group of people stealing from another group." i think he should go one step further and say, ala Pierre Joseph Prouhon "property is theft." We are all responsible for this. The Republicans led the charge, and then the Democrats kowtowed so they wouldn't go the way of the Whigs...
But we all invented those parties and we will be the ones to pay back the debt whether it is done through public bailout or private catastrophe. That doesn't matter hardly at all, and it's so anachronictic to read all you creepy "i was right all along" junky so-called libertarians jumping up and down about this thing like it makes a bit of difference at all.
they are just the leftover whiners who want to shirk their part in shouldering the debt. i'm not going to go down the path of arguing that you were as responsible for it as any other breathing person, and that the benefits you enjoyed include the fact that in all likelihood you have so far not been robbed of your meager yearly crop of rutabegas. i'm just saying, man, it doesn't matter if you were personally responsible. sometimes you just have to sacrifice and pay up for things you didn't break. so grow up and help out.
Joined: Apr 03, 2004 Posts: 7024 Location: My Grandkids' Farm
Posted: Tue Sep 30, 2008 3:32 pm Post subject: Re: Do you believe that the crash is planned?
kpeavey wrote:
It may not be planned, but it was projected, expected, planned for, and has always been unstoppable.
I agree.
My question is why all the talk about who planned it and not about what you have been doing to keep from it affecting you till now, even more to the point; what you are doing now? _________________ Make a plan and work it:
Posted: Tue Sep 30, 2008 4:16 pm Post subject: Re: Do you believe that the crash is planned?
Planned? No.
Human beings are hard wired to see a reason in things, that's why they invent gods and create conspiracy theories.
Sometimes there really are conspiracies but in this case pretty much the entire nation would need to be behind it. I don't know about the rest of you but I have not been informed of my role by the Illumnati. _________________ “In the Soviet Union, capitalism triumphed over communism. In this country, capitalism triumphed over democracy.”
[Fran Lebowitz
Posted: Tue Sep 30, 2008 4:45 pm Post subject: Re: Do you believe that the crash is planned?
Even Ron Paul insists that the reason we have this "Creature From Jekyll Island" called The Fed is because we need to amp our financial ability to support a gargantuan military industrial complex, 700 bases all over the world, frequent foreign wars and all that. Ron Paul emphasizes time and again that monetary policy enables foreign policy.
If we adopted the monetary and tax policies that Ron Paul recommends, he assures us that we would not be able to afford to engage in this kind of global meddling and manipulation.
So YES! This was planned. And not in any unusual and unique way. The deliberate manipulation of the economy is a programmed feature of the US economy.
I posted my perspective on another thread so I'll quote it here again. My perspective is like the Mike Ruppert view except that Ruppert is a "10" on the Doomerosity Scale whereas I'm more like a "6.5".
Carlhole wrote:
The present financial disaster was caused by (1) the easy money policy of the Fed, (2) the lax regulations in the FNMA and FDMC that approved masses of people for mortgages who were poor credit risks (3) the creation of derivative products by Wall Street which were designed to spread the credit risk all over the world.
However, there is a bigger picture here that I don't exactly have economically clear in my own mind. But maybe someone else does. It has to do with the larger financial imbalances that have existed in the world for quite some time. Notably, the (1) offshoring of US manufacturing and other jobs to China and other emerging markets, (2) the funding of the US government by China and other foreigners, (3) the prosecution of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
I think the Bush Administration arrived in office after the collapse of the internet bubble and a recent hike in the price of oil. They wanted to prosecute a war in Iraq in order to establish a permanent American presence in the last best cheap oil region left on the planet. Cheney had been making speeches about the difficulty of keeping oil production steady, much less grow it. Hawks such as the Neoconservatives saw an invasion of Iraq and the capture of Central Asain resources as a way to avoid the US becoming a second-rate nation in the 21st century.
But since the US economy was no longer financially capable of funding the war (due to the loss of US manufacturing jobs and the weak economy), the American powers-that-be (which would naturally include the Bush Administration) chose to create a housing boom/bubble, which would place the economy on steroids but would have a significant downside when it finally burst. I think the econo-strategists advising Cheney probably told him that the bubble would take most of the Bush's two terms to play out.
The relatively short-lived turbo-charging of the US economy allowed China to sell huge amounts of good to Americans, who financed their purchases using the oft-mentioned "mortgage ATM"). And thus, the US could finance the wars abroad by borrowing from China - at least for a while.
It seems to me that this was a huge crap shoot that the US engaged in. Did it pay off?
When I look at the results of this mess, I see that China and the US are financial partners who are in this thing together. China owns massive amounts of US debt. I keep predicting a Global Energy Summit in which China and the US will play the predominant roles.
In this Global Energy Summit, there will be some sort of agreement made about how future development will progress, taking into consideration peak oil and its dire ramifications. There will be global, coordinated energy technology R&D and production sharing agreements. There will be a continued leveling of the Chinese and American standards of living (of course, with Americans having to face up to very diminished circumstances). The price of crude will move higher, boosting worldwide efforts to conserve and become more efficient.
This is just a quick sketch but it seems to be a reasonably clear picture of what is happening. You certainly won't see this sort of perspective on CNN.
And anyone who has read my posts here in the past knows that I am very suspicious of the events of 911. They seem to have had their role to play as well in this unfolding global drama.
Again, it seems to me that this was a huge crap shoot that the US engaged in. Maybe the proper question to ask is not "Did it pay off?" but "Will it pay off?".
Posted: Tue Sep 30, 2008 5:03 pm Post subject: Re: Do you believe that the crash is planned?
aflurry wrote:
The market collapse isn't manufactured lto "mask" peak oil. It IS peak oil. And the fact that it arrives at exactly the same time as peak production need not have been planned to have been necessary, in fact it is mathematically necessary.
You will find no where in any of my postings that I said economic collapse would mask PO.
What you will find is I have said repeatedly...
Wait for it... PO will be defined by economic collapse.
I suggest you repost your last post with this perspective in mind. There is no sense intellectually jousting with someone who has entirely missed the point. _________________ 500 MPH into a brick wall - me
Posted: Tue Sep 30, 2008 9:32 pm Post subject: Re: Do you believe that the crash is planned?
It's maybe about how such things can be planned anyway. Their plans are not better than ours, well they have more information. Maybe it's like this: they plan a thing look how it works out and then adapt. And then surely there are different plans or conspiracies running at the same time.
But at the end I think there are conspiracies as 9/11 showed clearly. This event was simply to big to be planned by an old beardy man in a cave with a notebook. This plan worked out pretty well and the plotters might have been encouraged.
Posted: Tue Sep 30, 2008 10:30 pm Post subject: Re: Do you believe that the crash is planned?
If the US Govt is full of big oil and investment banking bigwigs, I don't see why they wouldn't have planned it. If a few interweb loons can work out what was going to happen three or four years in advance, it wouldn't take much for the combination of knowledge of peak oil and knowledge of the debt/leverage possibilities to be manipulated for this to occur at the right time. I'd certainly do it if I were in their shoes.
Quote:
...an unprecedented move by President George W. Bush to give the National Director of Intelligence, John Negroponte, the authority to exempt "certain" Wall Street firms and banking giants from reporting their financial records to the Securities and Exchange Commission
This seems to have been the requisite manipulation (excuse my ignorance of internal US affairs if this is common knowledge).
But we may never know for sure, such is the nature of these things. _________________ All that we are is the result of what we have thought. The mind is everything. What we think we become. - Buddha
Posted: Tue Sep 30, 2008 11:18 pm Post subject: Re: Do you believe that the crash is planned?
Pops wrote:
Carlhole wrote:
So YES! This was planned.
OK so what is your plan from here?
In a nutshell, I would want Barack Obama to get behind a Global Energy Summit that recognizes the energy problem, sets policy goals and coordinates R&D and production of a whole array of alternative energies and nuclear.
The Global Energy Summit would also view Iraq's reserves of 200 - 500 billion barrels as the last huge deposit of cheap, easy energy left on the planet. The Summit would view Iraq's oil as the critical reserves necessary to transform or build-out infrastructures in sensible, energy efficient ways.
I see the cooperation of China and the US as the key relationship that will enable societies to avoid the worst scenarios that peak oil presents. This would require substantive global agreements and continuing global cooperative efforts to deal with the problem.
At home, here in the US, we are looking at a prolonged recession of at least 2-3 years. Virtually all economists are saying we are charting new territory; no one knows what lies ahead. So, it's quite likely that we will probably see some hard times and the necessity of some sort of national works projects. I'd make energy, rail and light rail and other sensible infrastructure development a top-priority. I'd build-out the electrical grid and communications grid. I'd build 10 nuclear plants every decade for the next 5 decades. I'd promote the fast deployment of solar technologies for home electric and heating especially...
I suppose market forces take care of alot of this - as long as oil prices stay high. But policy and clear goals are an important adjunct to the market. People need to be aware of the consequences of inaction and the importance of relenting on nuclear NIMBY and things like that. _________________ "May you live in interesting times"
Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2008 1:54 am Post subject: Re: Do you believe that the crash is planned?
If it was planned, it would seem that the spirit inherent within the Bankers Manifestos of 1892 and 1934 still abides within the upper echelons of finance:
Quote:
We (the bankers) must proceed with caution and guard every move made, for the lower order of people are already showing signs of restless commotion. Prudence will therefore show a policy of apparently yielding to the popular will until our plans are so far consummated that we can declare our designs without fear of any organized resistance.
Organizations in the United States should be carefully watched by our trusted men, and we must take immediate steps to control these organizations in our interest or disrupt them.
At the coming Omaha convention to be held July 4, 1892, our men must attend and direct its movement or else there will be set on foot such antagonism to our designs as may require force to overcome.
This at the present time would be premature. We are not yet ready for such a crisis. Capital must protect itself in every possible manner through combination (conspiracy) and legislation.
The courts must be called to our aid, debts must be collected, bonds and mortgages foreclosed as rapidly as possible.
When, through the process of law, the common people have lost their homes,
they will be more tractable and easily governed through the influence of the strong arm
of the government applied to a central power of imperial wealth under the control of the leading financiers.
People without homes will not quarrel with their leaders. History repeats itself in regular cycles. This truth is well known among our principal men who are engaged in forming an imperialism of the world. While they are doing this, the people must be kept in a state of political antagonism.
The question of tariff reform must be urged through the organization known as the Democratic Party, and the question of protection with the reciprocity must be forced to view through the Republican Party.
By thus dividing voters, we can get them to expend their energies in fighting over questions of no importance to us, except as teachers to the common herd. Thus, by discrete actions, we can secure all that has been so generously planned and successfully accomplished.
Link _________________ "Who knows what the Second Law of Thermodynamics will be like in a hundred years?" - Economist speaking during planning for World Population Conference in early 1970s
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