Oil's energy contribution has declined by about 12% since 1999. The world's economies have also declined by about 12%. (Using conventional metrics, which are time delayed determinations, this will only be seen in hind sight). The massive destruction of asset values now occurring testifies to it happening.
Peak is well behind us, world economies have peaked and will continue to decline.
Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2008 5:04 am Post subject: Re: YELLING, CRYING, FREAKING OUT AT EMPTY PUMPS IN ATLANTA
RSFB wrote:
MacG wrote:
I have been in constant awe over the silence on these boards over the actual shortages. My personal guess is that despite the openness of many contributors, actual gasoline shortages is just a humiliating subject, which is not brought up in polite conversations.
What? There's a whole thread about gasoline shortages:
MacG - there was no silence, but you might need a new pair of _________________ We should teach our children the 4-Rs: Reduce, Reuse, Recycle and Rejoice.
Joined: May 05, 2008 Posts: 40 Location: The field
Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2008 5:13 am Post subject: Re: YELLING, CRYING, FREAKING OUT AT EMPTY PUMPS IN ATLANTA
Back in the 1970's some people set others on fire at the gasoline pumps. Well, I suppose part of this had to do with people smoking at gas stations.
I understand that this is why NJ and OR don't have self-serve gasoline. Apparently, the tensions were just too high for people to serve themselves.
The argument for self-service had to do with savings, but I remember hearing of a report which showed that the savings were insignificant per gallon, not the purported four percent. A back-of-the-envelope calculation would show that they are, in fact, insignificant, yet we lost the luxury of self-service.
Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2008 5:33 am Post subject: Re: YELLING, CRYING, FREAKING OUT AT EMPTY PUMPS IN ATLANTA
Sixstrings wrote:
This reminds me of a BBC Peak Oil documentary I saw. It posited a scenario in which, after rising oil prices, a hurricane triggers shortages. The funny thing though is that in the video I think they dated the fictional scenario 2016, and the fictional prices were lower than what they are now, lol.
As for the video I linked, what really struck me was the woman crying and screaming "I just need gas to go to work!" And the business lady, just randomly screaming at somebody. Why are these people yelling at EACH OTHER? It's like animals turning on one another, makes no sense. If you're out of gas, why would you rage agaisnt someone else out of gas? Did people behave this way during the 70's shortages?
Wait until there is no food, which is right around the corner.
Joined: Apr 28, 2005 Posts: 3920 Location: West shore Lake Eire, MI, USA
Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2008 5:44 am Post subject: Re: YELLING, CRYING, FREAKING OUT AT EMPTY PUMPS IN ATLANTA
Sixstrings wrote:
Why are these people yelling at EACH OTHER? It's like animals turning on one another, makes no sense. If you're out of gas, why would you rage agaisnt someone else out of gas? Did people behave this way during the 70's shortages?
They are pissed at the world and the person next to them is the easiest target for that anger.
And yes, people did freak in the 70's till they got used to the situation, then they adjusted and life went on. _________________ Always appeal to a man's enlightened self interest, you can trust him to look out for himself honestly, It's when you appeal to his Honor or the Common Good that he stops paying attention.
We're not going to pump gas! We're not savages. And that dreadful sales tax they pay in other states, how tacky...
There was a ballot measure in '82 to bring self-serve to OR - didn't happen, and during a recession no less. Dunno about NJ but tensions generally don't get very high out here about something as marginal as having to pump gas, the persistence of the law is mostly a cultural quirk I believe.
I've seen keylock pumps in more remote parts of the state - de facto self-serve, a sly run-around the whole filling station concept. _________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
C'mon man, who're you gonna believe?
Joined: Jun 13, 2007 Posts: 3911 Location: Minniesotuh
Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2008 7:45 am Post subject: Re: YELLING, CRYING, FREAKING OUT AT EMPTY PUMPS IN ATLANTA
Georgia governor asks for SPR release as gasoline panic continues
Quote:
New York (Platts)--30Sep2008
The state of Georgia has asked for crude to be released from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve to help alleviate its gasoline shortages, according to a letter posted on the website of Governor Sonny Perdue.
"I believe a surge in crude from the reserve would bridge the gap until full production resumes [from refineries hit by Hurricane Ike] and lessen the impact of shortages on the daily lives of our citizens," said Perdue in a September 29 letter to President Bush.
Reuters
Not an unexpected request.... _________________ "RRrrruuuunnnn!!!" ~Apocalypto
Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2008 7:50 am Post subject: Re: YELLING, CRYING, FREAKING OUT AT EMPTY PUMPS IN ATLANTA
MacG wrote:
Well, this is EXACTLY what has been predicted since very long, even by Mr Savinar himself who you nicked the avatar from. PeakOil meets JIT, MOL and Complex Systems with Diminishing Returns.
Please....he predicted that a pipeline would be shut down and that a run on gasoline in an area dependent upon that pipeline would cause aggravation? Did he predict the runup in prices in Arizona a few years back when that pipeline shut down as well?
I certainly must have missed that post of his.....
MacG wrote:
I have been in constant awe over the silence on these boards over the actual shortages. My personal guess is that despite the openness of many contributors, actual gasoline shortages is just a humiliating subject, which is not brought up in polite conversations.
We don't talk about it around here because it isn't PO related. Its like saying..." MY CAR RAN OUT OF GASOLINE IN MY DRIVEWAY!!! I REFUSE TO DRIVE DOWN THE BLOCK TO GET ANY, SO THERE IS A SHORTAGE!!!".
Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2008 8:00 am Post subject: Re: YELLING, CRYING, FREAKING OUT AT EMPTY PUMPS IN ATLANTA
Ferretlover wrote:
Georgia governor asks for SPR release as gasoline panic continues
Just some more political posturing by that moron. The feds aren't holding back oil right now. Perdue was blaming buyer panic for a long time.
Quote:
The announcement from Perdue came as he continues to face criticism from Democrats, who have called for him to return early from his weeklong trip to Barcelona, Madrid, Lisbon and Milan. Polling suggests the governor’s performance during the fuel shortage isn’t earning points with Georgians.
Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2008 8:14 am Post subject: Re: YELLING, CRYING, FREAKING OUT AT EMPTY PUMPS IN ATLANTA
Ferretlover wrote:
Georgia governor asks for SPR release as gasoline panic continues
Quote:
New York (Platts)--30Sep2008The state of Georgia has asked for crude to be released from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve to help alleviate its gasoline shortages, according to a letter posted on the website of Governor Sonny Perdue.
"I believe a surge in crude from the reserve would bridge the gap until full production resumes [from refineries hit by Hurricane Ike] and lessen the impact of shortages on the daily lives of our citizens," said Perdue in a September 29 letter to President Bush.
From the quote, someone obviously tried to get it through his thick skull that the SPR only has crude, not gasoline. But, he still thinks the SPR is going to help. Wait till they try to explain to him that there are various grades of crude, and that much of the SPR has been swapped for low-grade heavy sour.
As for the yelling and crying, what percentage of Americans are on Prozac or some other happy pill to put a little shiny buff on the inanity and insanity of the American dream? A lot of people are two minutes from breakdown as it is. _________________ At 1% annual growth, human bodies will incorporate every gram in the observable universe in approximately 10,170 years.
Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2008 8:35 am Post subject: Re: YELLING, CRYING, FREAKING OUT AT EMPTY PUMPS IN ATLANTA
Sixstrings wrote:
Why are these people yelling at EACH OTHER? It's like animals turning on one another, makes no sense. If you're out of gas, why would you rage agaisnt someone else out of gas?
Well, let's see. You can't get gas to get to work to make money to buy food which you can't get to the grocery store to buy either.
People ARE animals! Just because we had SUVs to drive for a few years doesn't change that fact of life. It really does not matter that there is still plenty of food out there. You can't get to it, and for many places in the world even if you could, you could not afford to buy it.
The panic is setting in among the population at large, the panic has been evident here on Peak Oil for years. Just it was always speculation about just when it would be TSWHTF. No more speculation on that one.
People take out their frustrations on each other because there is no one else in the immediate vicinity to take it out ON. Atlanta is chock full of the underclass, folks who never had the opportunity to build a bunker somewhere or even stock up on food. There are plenty of guns distributed around the population though, including in the hands of the police who ALSO can't get to work or get food. Not to mention even more matches and bic lighters.
Only a matter of time before the fistfights break out into gun fights. Not a long amount of time either.
Reverse Engineer
Posted: Sat Oct 04, 2008 5:55 am Post subject: Re: YELLING, CRYING, FREAKING OUT AT EMPTY PUMPS IN ATLANTA
CarlosFerreira wrote:
OK, let's see: food prices are high, so there's incentive to produce food. Why will there be shortages?
The food prices may be high but production costs may even be higher. Also transportation costs are higher and most food in the U.S. is trucked all around the country. If you already are farming and growing your own food you are in a good position. Don't think that the stores can't be emptied out in a day or two.
Joined: Jul 02, 2008 Posts: 595 Location: Canterbury, UK
Posted: Sat Oct 04, 2008 7:59 am Post subject: Re: CNN reports gas shortages in South East USA!
They can't; it would take a massive infrastructure collapse to end all the food in all the world (or the ability to distribute it, which is right now the most pressing issue).
Last years, wheat paid to producers in the UK was something like £130 por cubic meter, compared to £60 per cubic meter the year before. That's over 100% increase year on year.
There are 2 forces driving this astonishing: increase in production costs (fertilizer fetched something like a 200% price increase, fuel some 30 to 50% increase), bust mostly to the crop failures that happened in Autralia (long draught) and the US (floodings), which shrinked offer in the market. The influence of the switch to producing corn for biofuels hasn't helped either (I think the World Bank published a report saying it accounted for a lot of the increase).
Essentially, there's pretty much to feed us all, western boys. Food will command a premium, but that is relative, because we've had a long decline in the prices of food for so long (like, 50 or so years) that some of us have simply never known how it was before.
The shift will come from food commanding a greater percentage of income. Instead of the current 10 or so percent, it will command more, and remove disposable income for other consumption.
The sort of tragedy people seem to point to, with food just no being available is possible if the distribution channels fail. Again, the distribution channels will start draining more money, as energy prices increase, but they won't simply grind to a halt. A couple of scares and the odd shortage? Quite possible. It has happened before, like when truckers go on strike. In certain cases, the JIT distribution channels, that have proved so efficient, will probably have to change. _________________ Environmental News and Clippings:
http://www.google.co.uk/reader/shared/10279555364898696533
Joined: Sep 08, 2005 Posts: 792 Location: Atlanta, GA
Posted: Sat Oct 04, 2008 8:10 am Post subject: Re: CNN reports gas shortages in South East USA!
Back on topic, the gas shortage has eased greatly here in the ATL. The majority of stations now have gas (even premium!), and prices are dropping dramatically...down from $4.09 to $3.69 at the corner Chevron. Still a lot of scooters on the road, though, as well as more people carpooling, taking the bus, etc.
I have a feeling that it'll be a long, long time before people start taking gas for granted again around here, and I think this shortage was a very good lesson for the residents of one of the most car-dependent cities in the world.
Anyone else still seeing any spot shortages up and down the East Coast? _________________ Nowhere to run, nowhere to hide...
...and the meek shall inherit the Earth!
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And that dreadful sales tax they pay in other states, how tacky...
