Oil's energy contribution has declined by about 12% since 1999. The world's economies have also declined by about 12%. (Using conventional metrics, which are time delayed determinations, this will only be seen in hind sight). The massive destruction of asset values now occurring testifies to it happening.
Peak is well behind us, world economies have peaked and will continue to decline.
Posted: Sun Sep 28, 2008 2:59 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Quote:
Please can you explain where your value comes from and what geographical areas of refinery production it includes.
As of the 19th, there was 2.3 million barrels of refinery capacity down, around the gulf coast.
As of the 26th, there is only .65 mbpd refinery capacity down.
1.65 mbpd (the difference) must have been started up. That is just about .9 mbpd of unleaded production.
Last week, there was 7.1 mbpd of unleaded production.
7.1 plus .9 means we are back up to approximately 8 mbpd currently. Possibly some other refinery operations outside of the affected area in the Gulf also increased their production.
On the report this week, there will probably be a little less than that, because surely there was a scale-up period. But at the moment, I am "musing" that there is probably 8 mbpd running.
We also know that at this time of year, the production plus imports needs to equal about 9.8-10 mbpd in order to avoid a further inventory drawdown. Given last week's imports of 1.2 mbpd, we are looking at a deficit of up to .8 mbpd, or possibly 5.6 million barrels for the week.
A "normally functioning" refinery system should be up around 8.8 or 9 mbpd this time of year. There was a list of refinery shutdowns awhile back. Typically, they take maintenance time before the heating oil season kicks in. At this level, along with 1 mbpd imports, we would normally be building inventory.
This is not an official prediction yet, but it is going to be close to that unless I am convinced otherwise by any conversation on the board.
Posted: Mon Sep 29, 2008 7:00 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Thanks Pup55. So your quoted ~8 mbpd value seems to be unleaded gasoline production nationwide.
Please could you (or anyone) also help me further understand these values. I'm new to this subject and need some education.
I'm reading the DOE's Situation Reports. Their "Refineries in the Path of Gustav/Ike" charts have 5 columns indicating bpd values, but I'm not sure exactly what they mean so any clarification would be welcome.
OPERATING. These values actually appear to be maximum possible production of all product types if all refineries are operating at full capacity.
SHUT DOWN. Seems to be self-explanatory and refer to production totally lost due to the noted refineries being completely shut down.
RESTARTING. They quote full max production values for each "restarting" refinery here, but from elsewhere on these forums it appears that this really only means equipment is in good condition but there are insufficient personnel or other issues preventing production. It's therefore not clear how much of this value should be considered actual production. Zero?
REDUCED RUNS. Again they quote maximum production rates for each refinery reporting reduced runs. Presumably each refinery noted here is producing something, but no way to tell how much from this.
BACK TO NORMAL. Would seem to be self-explanatory.
Since they only quote the maximum possible production values in the column indicating each refinery's status, the only reliable actual production value would appear to be the one in the "Back to Normal" column. As of 9/26 that is noted as only being 40% of maximum. From this, it would appear that just because a large amount has been transferred in the past week from the "Shut Down" column to "Restarting" or "Reduced Runs" (1.65 mbpd change), doesn't necessarily mean that actual production is much more than last week. Is this right?
Also, please could you refer us to the source of the weekly unleaded gasoline production figures ("7.1 mbpd last week") and values of imported refined product ("1.2 mbpd last week").
Also, where the proportion value of unleaded to total production comes from ("1.65 mbpd total means 0.9 unleaded").
Thanks!
Last edited by ushoys on Mon Sep 29, 2008 8:55 am; edited 1 time in total
Posted: Mon Sep 29, 2008 7:37 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Yes, unleaded production nationwide (estimated)
I think your understanding of the columns is more or less correct.
On the calculation, you are correct, the numbers stated are "crude oil input values, and so you have to estimate unleaded production on that basis. Prior to the storms, the system was running at about 87% capacity, and typically, the national average for unleaded production is .6 times the crude oil inputs, which it was in the last few weeks before the storms. So, for an estimate of the amount of production lost, it's 1.65 times .87 times .6 and that should be roughly what the unleaded production lost should be. Maybe .9 was a rough calculation and it should be .8 or something instead.
Incidentally, the amount of distillates should be about .5 times the amount of unleaded.
Of course, these numbers vary by refinery, and there is a little statistical variability, so it is possible that they will be imprecise. It would be much better to know the product mix of each individual refinery for a more detailed estimate, but for the purposes of PO.com, it's close enough. Theoretically the DOE should know exactly what these numbers are every week, but even they do not know this. Perhaps the upcoming furor over the SEUS gas issues will give motivation for a better tracking system.
The 7.1 and 1.2 values come from the "weekly petroleum status report" which is put out every wednesday. My memory might not be calibrated properly so feel free to look up on the report what the actual values were. These were just off the top of my head.
Unknowns:
Demand for unleaded, especially with fuel shortages in the SEUS.
Demand for distillates, harvest still a month away.
Import capabilities
How excited can anybody be about importing crude, with their refineries down?
How much unleaded can we squeeze out of Europe?
Joined: Sep 16, 2004 Posts: 4936 Location: Southwest WI
Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2008 8:35 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Quote:
Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending September 26, 2008
U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged nearly 12.5 million barrels per day
during the week ending September 26, up 948 thousand barrels per day from the
previous week's average. Refineries operated at 72.3 percent of their operable
capacity last week. Gasoline production rose last week, averaging about 8.7
million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production increased last week,
averaging nearly 3.7 million barrels per day.
U.S. crude oil imports averaged nearly 9.0 million barrels per day last week, up
1.8 million barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks,
crude oil imports have averaged 8.3 million barrels per day, 2.0 million barrels
per day below the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports
(including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week
averaged about 1.3 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports averaged 195
thousand barrels per day last week.
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic
Petroleum Reserve) increased by 4.3 million barrels from the previous week. At
294.5 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are in the lower half of the
average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories increased
by 0.9 million barrels last week, and are below the lower boundary of the
average range. Both finished gasoline inventories and gasoline blending
components inventories increased last week. Distillate fuel inventories fell by
2.3 million barrels, and are near the lower limit of the average range for this
time of year. Propane/propylene inventories increased by 2.5 million barrels
last week but remain below the lower limit of the average range. Total
commercial petroleum inventories increased by 0.5 million barrels last week, and
are below the lower boundary of the average range for this time of year.
Total products supplied over the last four-week period has averaged 19.0 million
barrels per day, down by 7.1 percent compared to the similar period last year.
Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline demand has averaged nearly 8.9 million
barrels per day, down by 4.5 percent from the same period last year. Distillate
fuel demand has averaged 3.8 million barrels per day over the last four weeks,
down by 8.4 percent from the same period last year. Jet fuel demand is 1.5
percent lower over the last four weeks compared to the same four-week period
last year.
Looks like gasoline was up? _________________ Clothing should be optional.
Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2008 8:50 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Involuntary demand destruction (i.e., bagged pumps and staying home) starting to show up in the gasoline demand down 4.5% (!) and the distillate demand down 8.4% (!!!) numbers? _________________ At 1% annual growth, human bodies will incorporate every gram in the observable universe in approximately 10,170 years.
Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2008 9:04 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
lawnchair wrote:
Involuntary demand destruction (i.e., bagged pumps and staying home) starting to show up in the gasoline demand down 4.5% (!) and the distillate demand down 8.4% (!!!) numbers?
Ironically, in this case, falling demand means falling prices.
Why don't more people cut off their ears? It seems like a reasonable response to our daily madness.
Joined: Apr 05, 2005 Posts: 2618 Location: South of Atlanta
Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2008 9:06 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
There is some sort of cognitive dissonance here. We are still having pretty significant regional shortages here and throughout the SE. I find the gasoline number to be...lets just say..puzzling.
How is it possible that this week, there is a build in gasoline? I even find the distillate number to be questionable.
Once again I'd suggest that these numbers are being obfuscated intentionally. I cant come up with an instance of how the gas inventories could be "building" with such a situation going on here in GA/SC/NC/TN/FL etc.
I can understand the demand isssue, but we are still obvioulsy playing whack a mole, and the pipelines are not flowing adequate supply to this area.
If this is really the case, and national invnetories are up for gasoline, WHERE THE HELL IS IT?
Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2008 9:19 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
AirlinePilot wrote:
I can understand the demand isssue, but we are still obvioulsy playing whack a mole, and the pipelines are not flowing adequate supply to this area.
If this is really the case, and national invnetories are up for gasoline, WHERE THE HELL IS IT?
Its in the places served by refineries still operating with supplies of crude still being delivered.
The problem on the inventory level is that what is refined cannot be shipped out fast enough to the right places. Without the pipelines operating properly, you simply can't move the gasoline to the distribution points effectively, thus inventory builds.
Until the refineries in the Gulf and the LOOP are back to full operating capacity, no way you can move enough product through the pipelines to meet the demand in the areas served by that system. Those refineries won't be back up to full operating capacity for months at best, if ever. Besides, a significant amount of actual production was lost off rigs in the Gulf. Overall, the system is starved for oil, people shortly thereafter become starved for food, shortly thereafter they panic.
Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2008 9:23 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Quote:
Unleaded 26-Sep
Beginning Inv 178.7
Imports 9.1 1.3
Production 60.9 8.7
Available 248.7
Ending Inv 179.6
Balance 69.1
Balance/day 9.87
Prod Supplied 8.9
Actual Change 0.9
Deviation from Forecast 4.4
Distillates 26-Sep
Beginning Inv 125.4
Imports 1.365 0.195
Production 25.9 3.7
Available 152.665
Ending Inv 123.1
Balance 29.565
Balance/day 4.22
Prod Supplied 3.8
Actual Change -2.3
Deviation from Forecast -3.7
Crude Oil 26-Sep
Beginning Inv 290.2
Production 27.727 3.961
Imports 63 9
Total Available 380.927
Provided to Ref 87.5 12.5 72.3
Ending Inventory 294.5
Actual Change 4.3
Deviation from Forecast 1.85
Here is what is happening: They are blending the hell out of blending components and/or adjusting the available capacity to produce gasoline.
The normal ratio of unleaded to distillates is 2:1. At this level, at distillate production of 3.7 mbpd we would get unleaded production of 7.4, but it is actually at 8.7, a lot higher than that. Obviously they are prioritizing the unleaded, which is correct. The extra production may be blending components or normal gasoline, maybe we will look at the numbers a little later to see which.
We got a little bit more unleaded imports this week, we are up to 1.3, so between the extra unleaded production and the imports, that explains the slight build in unleaded inventory. My demand estimate was pretty close, for some guy on the internet.
The crude oil inputs to refineries were also a little higher than they should have been: At 72% npc, my calculation, based on the last six month average suggests that crude oil inputs should have been in the neighborhood of 11.8 mbpd, so they are also losing some crude oil efficiency by running the way they now are. I am not complaining, though, my guess of 12.5 was right on the money.
This should eventually give a little relief to the system, but the effects will be finite as long as the supply of blending components is not exhausted.
Note also that by shortchanging distillates, the NEUS took one step closer to shivering when the first little arctic blast hits about Christmastime. Also, note that the domestic US crude oil production dropped to under 4 mbpd. It had been running consistently about 5.1 mbpd for two years. perhaps we will never see 5 again, unless ANWR is opened up.
Last edited by pup55 on Wed Oct 01, 2008 9:35 am; edited 1 time in total
You cannot post new topics in this forum You cannot reply to topics in this forum You cannot edit your posts in this forum You cannot delete your posts in this forum You cannot vote in polls in this forum
News
Discussions
Resources
Members
Forum FAQ
Search
Usergroups
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
