Oil's energy contribution has declined by about 12% since 1999. The world's economies have also declined by about 12%. (Using conventional metrics, which are time delayed determinations, this will only be seen in hind sight). The massive destruction of asset values now occurring testifies to it happening.
Peak is well behind us, world economies have peaked and will continue to decline.
Joined: Sep 12, 2005 Posts: 289 Location: Victoria, Australia
Posted: Mon Oct 08, 2007 3:03 am Post subject: Re: Drought Spreads Across Australia/US Grain Prices Soar
Byron100 wrote:
What I would like to know if Australia is taking the steps it should be taking to keep the farms watered. I'm talking about drastic, but effective measures such as the closing of golf courses, car washes, commercial nurseries and other industries that use vast amounts of water. Sure, this would hurt the economy, but growing food *is* more important than the "rights" of certain water-hogging businesses, am I right?
Yep, Australia is taking steps. The government has taken water allocations off farmers and is diverting the water to Melbourne and Adelaide so that the cities do not have to go on higher water restrictions. Melbourne is currently on level 3A. This level was just recently invented as moving from level 3 to level 4 would stop the watering of sports fields and city parks. Also under this few fangled level 3a people can water their gardens for 2 hours twice a week.
Also managed investment schemes have been bidding up the price of water rights and have managed to buy up large volumes of water to irrigate their new almond trees recently planted along the Murray River. The managed investment schemes could afford to bid up the price because they were given a generous tax rebate on the cost of water to help them establish themselves. The government has just advised that this tax rebate will stop in March 2008 as it disadvantages other water users.
New huge dams at the top of the Murray and Darling Rivers are holding up all the flow of the river. These dams are owned by huge agri companies that somehow received permission to build these dams whilst small farmers have seen their water allocation slashed to zero.
Our situation is indeed grim, but much of our situation is brought about by government mismanagement and outright profiteering. We will be short of food this year but I feel confident that our govt ministers will not go hungry.
Joined: Nov 20, 2006 Posts: 123 Location: Tasmania
Posted: Mon Oct 08, 2007 6:58 pm Post subject: Re: Drought Spreads Across Australia/US Grain Prices Soar
The situation here is indeed grim. The warning from the environmental scientist came from the local nursery school, believe it or not, where the environmental scientist mum scared the crap out of everyone else with her dire warning. Not exactly one of the more trustworthy news sources, but she was very convincing - and it just fits in with the ever evolving catastrophe of the drought, increasing heat, various other climate change problems and let's not even get onto Peak Oil. The three year warning was essentially - three years is about all we have got to enjoy our current standard of living. Prepare now or repent. (Al Gore was here a week ago and he was more forgiving - according to him we had ten years max. A friend who was at his presentation said he broke down into tears on the podium.)
The mood on the street? People are becoming more aware, and yet at the same time it is business as usual. Yet sometimes I even doubt the 'more aware'. There is one forum I chat on with 64,000 members and it is largely made up of (if I dare to generalize) stay at home mums (I do not fit well into this genre LOL). They complain about the heat and the drought and then they moan about the rising prices and they say, "Why are food prices rising? Doesn't the government realise this is just so unfair?" They largely just don't get it, or make the connection (this is scary). Recently someone on this forum started a thread about PO and the effect of PO and of sundry other converging catastrophes, and there are only a few people prepared to talk about it. The others want to know which is the best kind of aircon to put into their homes.
On the other hand - people are putting in rainwater tanks and starting their own gardens. They talk of solar power, and want solar power, but this is so prohibitively expensive here that only the wealthy can afford it. There is a rebate but it would cover, what? 15% of the total cost of going off-grid?
The problem is that individuals do want to take steps - but what is happening with industry? Government? Bugger all. The incentives for individuals to do anything proactive are abysmal.
I moved from the mainland to Tasmania several years ago. I could see where we were going, and I wanted to be somewhere with an assured water supply and a temperate climate. (I had moved from a hot and arid region on dire water restrictions.) It is not a move I have yet regretted.
Joined: Aug 27, 2004 Posts: 163 Location: missouri
Posted: Sun Nov 04, 2007 2:39 pm Post subject: Re: Drought Spreads Across Australia/US Grain Prices Soar
TT, I saw much of that for myself last fall when we visited Oz. It was our first trip to there though, so we didn't have any points of comparison. One thing we learned about too, is the salt panning (do I have that right?), where the salt comes up from the ground and destroys huge swathes of farmland for all time, and homes (by coming up thru the foundation). You all have many challenges, not least that you are at the peak or past of what population can be supported, even in the best of times. And more people are moving in.
I found this last week, and I believe it says it all:
Quote:
SYDNEY, Australia (AP) -- A 66-year-old man was bashed to death while watering his lawn in an argument over Sydney's water restrictions, police and media said Thursday.
Sydney allows watering on Wednesdays and Sundays before 10 a.m. and after 4 p.m.
A 36-year-old man, whose name has not been released, will appear in a Sydney court Thursday charged with murder following the fatal altercation Wednesday, a police statement said.
The alleged killer approached the older man, whose name has not been made public, as he watered his lawn in southern Sydney with a hose at 5:30 p.m. (0630 GMT) Wednesday and an argument ensued, police said.
Media reported the argument was over Sydney's water restrictions. The victim reportedly sprayed the younger man with the hose. Police said the younger man responded by punching and pushing the older man to the ground and kicking him.
An off-duty police officer intervened and arrested the younger man, the statement said. The older man was taken by ambulance to the hospital but died soon after, police said.
The victim was complying with Sydney's water restrictions when he was killed. Watering with hand-held hoses is allowed on Wednesdays and Sundays before 10 a.m. and after 4 p.m.
It goes to show how desperate things are getting. Note to others on the board: Oz had a very low crime rate, esp compared to the US. You have all my sympathy, and I loved your country. The people are so lovely.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Thu Dec 06, 2007 10:12 pm Post subject: Re: Drought Spreads Across Australia/US Grain Prices Soar
Wheat hits record high US price:
Quote:
Spring Wheat Tops $10 Mark
Canada Trims View On Output, Leading
To Supply Concerns
By TOM POLANSEK
December 7, 2007
CHICAGO -- Spring wheat futures traded on the Minneapolis Grain Exchange cracked the $10 a bushel mark, amid lingering fears about tight supplies, analysts said.
Spot-month MGE December wheat settled at $10.13, up 25 cents, which is also the all-time high. Of the three major U.S. futures exchanges -- the Chicago Board of Trade, the Kansas City Board of Trade and the MGE -- only the December MGE contract has traded to this level. Each exchange trades a different type of wheat -- the grain traded at MGE is hard red spring, used to make bread.
A bullish report yesterday from Canada's government on the size of its wheat crop spurred the move to $10, analysts said. Statistics Canada trimmed its spring wheat production estimate to 509.8 million bushels, down from its October forecast of 526 million. In 2006, Canada produced 684 million bushels of spring wheat. Canada produced less spring wheat this year than in 2006 due to reduced plantings and unfavorably hot conditions during the growing season.
MGE wheat futures began gaining on CBOT wheat after the U.S. Agriculture Department, in its September small grains report, surprised traders by cutting its estimate for 2007-08 U.S. hard red spring wheat production to 479 million bushels from 500 million in August.
WSJ
subscription may be required _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Sat Feb 16, 2008 10:43 pm Post subject: Re: Drought Spreads Across Australia/US Grain Prices Soar
In the 16 months since the start of this thread, grain prices have - except for some brief periods - continued to move relentlessly higher. If anything, the price rises have been accelerating.
Here in New Jersey, the news about grains has finally reached the front page of a major local paper. So far, I can handle the 60% price rise of a morning bagel over the last year, but even here in the US price huge price increases for energy and food must be leading to a lower standard of living for those who are already less well off.
The article correctly indicates that the grain shortage was propelled forward by the growing use of biofuels.
Quote:
Price of bread keeps rising
Saturday, February 16, 2008
Last Updated Saturday February 16, 2008, EST 6:17 AM
BY HUGH R. MORLEYSTAFF WRITER
If you're paying more for that morning bagel, don't blame the deli.
A global wheat shortage of historic proportions has pushed up the price of rolls, pita bread, French baguettes and other flour-based products, and North Jersey bakers say more hikes could be on the way.
Bakeries, bread manufacturers and flour distributors say they have been forced to charge their customers more to cope with a doubling in the price of flour over the past nine months.
Fueling it all is a tripling of wheat prices over the past year due to rising global demand, crop failures in several nations, and other factors.
Wheat futures hit a record high on Friday of $19.88 a bushel on the Minneapolis Grain Exchange, far above the price of $4.92 a bushel 12 months ago, before closing at $19.44.
While the increases mean nickels to consumers so far, bakers are paying thousands more than they were only a few months ago.
"That's an increase like I've never seen since I've been buying flour," said Young, who has been in the bread business for a decade.
Commodity analysts say the wheat-price surge is fueled by several factors, including rising demand in growing countries such as India and China and poor crop yields in Australia, Russia, Argentina and America's Midwest in recent years, in part due to drought or flooding.
Some farmers have stopped growing wheat to make room for corn and soy beans, which are in demand for use in fuels such as ethanol and biodiesel, said Philip Gotthelf, president of Equidex, a Closter-based commodity trading company.
Posted: Mon Feb 18, 2008 3:24 pm Post subject: Re: Drought Spreads Across Australia/US Grain Prices Soar
Cornelian wrote:
They talk of solar power, and want solar power, but this is so prohibitively expensive here that only the wealthy can afford it. There is a rebate but it would cover, what? 15% of the total cost of going off-grid?
Out of the three R's, Reduce is first for a reason. _________________
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Mon Feb 25, 2008 10:13 pm Post subject: Re: Drought Spreads Across Australia/US Grain Prices Soar
'Wheat markets gone wild' is now an understatement of what's happening in the grain markets:
Quote:
Wheat prices in biggest one-day rise
By Javier Blas in London and Isabel Gorst in Moscow
Published: February 25 2008 20:18 | Last updated: February 25 2008 20:18
Prices of top-quality wheat jumped 25 per cent to a record high on Monday in their largest one-day increase as Kazakhstan, one of the largest grain exporters, said it would impose export tariffs to curb sales.
The move, which follows similar export restrictions in Russia and Argentina, is likely to put further pressure on already tight global wheat supplies, analysts said.
Akhmetzhan Yesimov, Kazakhstan’s minister of agriculture, said the government wanted to limit exports as it battled against rising domestic inflation of nearly 20 per cent.
Mr Yesimov said: “Whatever happens, we will soon limit exports.”
Kazakh grain, prized for its high protein and gluten content, is similar to some of the scarce top-quality North American crops that jumped in price on Monday.
Spring wheat at the Minneapolis Grain Exchange surged an unprecedented $4.75 to a record high of $24 a bushel as consumers scrambled to secure supplies and speculators poured fresh money into the agriculture market.
Meanwhile Iraq has cut food rations (do we have to guess how that will go over?)
Quote:
Iraq to Curb Food Rations, Spurring Fear of Hunger
System Is Plagued By Rising Prices And Corruption
By GINA CHON
February 26, 2008
BAGHDAD -- The Iraqi government plans to cut back its food-ration system this summer, a move aid agencies warn could increase rates of malnutrition.
The system, established by Saddam Hussein during United Nations sanctions imposed during the 1990-1991 Gulf War, has been lauded by the world body as an effective tool to prevent hunger in the country.
REDUCED RATIONS
• The Cut: Iraq plans to cut back on its lauded food-ration system for many Iraqis this summer, pressured by high food prices.
• The Impetus: Many food importers are being squeezed by rising global commodities prices, and the cost of the program in Iraq has risen significantly.
• Who's at Risk? The U.N. says one in four children in Iraq under the age of 5 is chronically malnourished, and at least four million Iraqis are in need of food assistance.Under the system, items such as soap, baby formula, flour, sugar, tea and rice were distributed to citizens on a monthly basis. But since the 2003 U.S.-led invasion, the system has been strained. Corruption and security concerns have prevented the delivery of rationed items across the country.
Rising global food prices -- a growing worry for countries like Iraq that are heavily dependent on imported food -- are also driving the decision to end the rationing. Other countries, notably Egypt, a big wheat importer, have faced the increasing cost of their food-subsidies programs.
The drought in Australia's main food bowl, the Murray-Darling Basin, has worsened, with record low inflows into the river system in June and an even gloomier situation predicted for the coming months.
Neil Plummer, acting head of the National Climate Centre, described rainfall during the southern hemisphere autumn as "an absolute shocker", and said: "I'm gasping for good news". Wendy Craik, chief executive of the Murray-Darling Basin Commission, said the river system's condition was "critical ... tending towards flatlining". She added: "We have got it on life support........
No problem with the river across the road from me currently in a mild flood _________________ Let us make him who shall nourish and sustain us. What shall we do to be invoked; to be remembered in the earth.
We have tried with our first creatures but we could not make them venerate us.
So let us try to make obedient respectful beings who shall
Soaring temperatures and strong winds have laid waste to Victorian farmers' wheat crops as they battle to contend with the long-running drought.
Last weekend's 34-degree temperatures combined with near-gale force winds to tear a path of destruction through the wheatbelt districts of the Mallee, Wimmera and the north-east of the state.
The Victorian Farmers Federation has issued a call to the State Government, pleading for the reintroduction of drought support measures.
VFF president Simon Ramsay there were "pockets all over the place that are either holding on, or other pockets that are not,''.
"We're estimating between 10 and 20% loss of the wheat crop in the north," he said...
_________________ Let us make him who shall nourish and sustain us. What shall we do to be invoked; to be remembered in the earth.
We have tried with our first creatures but we could not make them venerate us.
So let us try to make obedient respectful beings who shall
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