Oil's energy contribution has declined by about 12% since 1999. The world's economies have also declined by about 12%. (Using conventional metrics, which are time delayed determinations, this will only be seen in hind sight). The massive destruction of asset values now occurring testifies to it happening.
Peak is well behind us, world economies have peaked and will continue to decline.
Posted: Thu Oct 02, 2008 2:48 pm Post subject: Re: BIG drop in US oil consumption
It's strange that there is this oil shortage in Southeast if the oil consumption is down. They are blaming the Hurricane but I believe otherwise. link
Fixed link. Per COC 3.1.2. Please use the hyperlink function (instructions in the 'How To Get Around This Site..." thread in the Welcome Forum.) Thank you.-FL
Joined: May 26, 2008 Posts: 1190 Location: Chicago, IL
Posted: Thu Oct 02, 2008 4:38 pm Post subject: Re: BIG drop in US oil consumption
JohnDenver wrote:
The latest EIA stats show an amazingly large drop in US petroleum consumption for the week ending Sept. 26. Product supplied was down by 2.175 mbd, year on year, for a percentage drop of about 11%. Interesting how little effect a drop of that magnitude has on the price and general travel situation in the US. A few minor shortages, but on the whole, it's business as usual. Just goes to show how much fuel people waste over there.
First I'm having a semantics problem. Could somebody please explain what "Petroleum Products Product Supplied" mean?
Second, I thought the US consumed 30mbpd, of which 10mbpd are domestic and 20mbpd are imported. What those 18.5mbpd of "Petroleum Products Product Supplied" mean?
Third, regarding "how little effect a drop of that magnitude has on the general travel situation in the US", isn't it the other way around? I read total miles traveled dropped over 4% year-to-year. I find interesting that 4% less miles traveled reflect 11% less in "Petroleum Products Product Supplied", whatever that means. I guess the gas-guzzlers were the first to get out of the road. _________________ 9/29/08, cube, The Dow will drop to 4,000 within 2 years
Joined: May 26, 2008 Posts: 1190 Location: Chicago, IL
Posted: Thu Oct 02, 2008 4:51 pm Post subject: Re: Will demand distruction in cars be reflected in gas use?
Miles traveled dropped by 4% year-to-year. There's another thread discussing oil consumption. Perhaps a Mod could merge both threads. _________________ 9/29/08, cube, The Dow will drop to 4,000 within 2 years
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Thu Oct 02, 2008 4:52 pm Post subject: Re: BIG drop in US oil consumption
I may be over-generalizing but products supplied means products supplied by refineries. That may include nearly finished imported gasoine or ethanol added at the last minute at refining sites.
Roughly speaking, when refineries are operating fairly normally, products supplied are assumed to be roughly equal to demand. Being refineries two weeks ago were having their worst week ever, there is nothing normal about the 'products supplied' number.
With severe fuel shortages across the parts of the country, products supplied only tell us how much refineries could spit out. _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Joined: Mar 25, 2008 Posts: 890 Location: Alif Lam Mim
Posted: Thu Oct 02, 2008 6:44 pm Post subject: Re: BIG drop in US oil consumption
VMarcHart wrote:
JohnDenver wrote:
The latest EIA stats show an amazingly large drop in US petroleum consumption for the week ending Sept. 26. Product supplied was down by 2.175 mbd, year on year, for a percentage drop of about 11%. Interesting how little effect a drop of that magnitude has on the price and general travel situation in the US. A few minor shortages, but on the whole, it's business as usual. Just goes to show how much fuel people waste over there.
First I'm having a semantics problem. Could somebody please explain what "Petroleum Products Product Supplied" mean? Second, I thought the US consumed 30mbpd, of which 10mbpd are domestic and 20mbpd are imported. What those 18.5mbpd of "Petroleum Products Product Supplied" mean?
US oil demand is generally said to be 20 mpd for ease. It was around 21 mpd for quite some time, but now it appears to be below 20 mpd. I have no idea where you'd get 30 mpd. Maybe a projection for 2030 or something. _________________ Riches are not from abundance of worldly goods, but from a contented mind.
Posted: Thu Oct 02, 2008 8:20 pm Post subject: Re: BIG drop in US oil consumption
smallpoxgirl wrote:
Yeah, in case you hadn't noticed JD, that 11% drop has had really profound impacts on our economy. Things are not looking good here economically at all.
Correlation is not causation. If anything I would say that higher oil prices are symptomatic of the same stuff brought to you by people who made tons of cash off of our current economic crisis among other very lucrative goings on. Nearly every sector has seen the same, IMO, run on the treasury. People as both wage earners and consumers are squeezed by higher profit margins w/ wages that aren't keeping up with inflation as well as predatory lending practices, that seem to be on the verge of a lucrative bailout now that the consumer can no longer support these expectations that were never supported by fundamentals, which btw seem to be taking quite a bit of investor (including 401k) wealth w/ 'em. Among other things of course...
Looking at oil specifically, we've had a president who allowed a tax loophole big enough to drive a luxury SUV through for free to get passed, killed the Big Three's hybrid program that resulted in 80mpg full size sedans, as well as CA's ZEV mandate, while bogging down the U.S. military (we burn quite a bit of fuel driving tanks and flying aircraft lord knows where btw) into a shitty desert on the other side of the globe destabilizing the largest oil producing region in the world as well as starting an occupation/civil war in the only country in that area w/ any potentional for an increase in output. Short of nuking Iran and adding a buck or two per gallon of federal subsidies to gasonline I don't know what else we couldn't done to run up oil prices.
Joined: Dec 02, 2007 Posts: 193 Location: Winnipeg, MB, Canada
Posted: Thu Oct 02, 2008 9:59 pm Post subject: Re: BIG drop in US oil consumption
burtonridr wrote:
ki11ercane wrote:
So JD, it's done then? Can I put this "Peak Oil Thingy" behind me now once and for all? I really do want to go back to the life I had before I heard and read about Peak Oil. I want my ignorance back. It's been a challenging 2 years for me trying to live without prepping. I don't want to waste years of time and money preparing my entire life around the final consequences of consuming a finite resource knowing it's going to last forever. Just reply "Peak Oil doesn't exist, you don't have to ever worry about it ever happening evar! There will always be finite natural energy resources to consume forever." I want to die knowing my kids and grand kids won't have to worry about it either. I'll check back here later to see. Thanks in advance!
Lol nope this isnt a dream, its still happening. Sorry it isnt happening the way you had imagined Do you think the economy would be getting hit so hard if oil wasnt a portion of the problem? Seriously, think about it really hard... Oil played a role in where we are today. It might not have been what set off the chain reaction of events, but I believe it amplified them.
I forgot the wrap my comments in the </sarcasm> tags.
Joined: May 26, 2008 Posts: 1190 Location: Chicago, IL
Posted: Fri Oct 03, 2008 3:51 am Post subject: Re: BIG drop in US oil consumption
3aidlillahi wrote:
US oil demand is generally said to be 20 mpd for ease. It was around 21 mpd for quite some time, but now it appears to be below 20 mpd. I have no idea where you'd get 30 mpd. Maybe a projection for 2030 or something.
Thanks, man. I got my wires crossed. I think world production is about 80mbpd, of which we consume about 20mbpd, and of which we import about 3/4 and produce about 1/4. Thanks again. _________________ 9/29/08, cube, The Dow will drop to 4,000 within 2 years
Posted: Fri Oct 03, 2008 10:54 am Post subject: Re: BIG drop in US oil consumption
NoahsDove wrote:
It's strange that there is this oil shortage in Southeast if the oil consumption is down. They are blaming the Hurricane but I believe otherwise. link Fixed link. Per COC 3.1.2. Please use the hyperlink function (instructions in the 'How To Get Around This Site..." thread in the Welcome Forum.) Thank you.-FL
That article is dead spot on - the problem was power, not refining capacity and not oil shortages.
You've got to keep in mind that, in less that two weeks, the coast was hit by two category 3 hurricanes. During that time, oil did not really spike or move much and when it did spike for a week or so it was only after an oil contract settlement date.
I know for a fact that power was a major issue because, as part of my occupation, I had to track the effects of the storm on our business. All the way up into Ohio there were power outages that lasted for days due to wind damage from the remnants of the storm. There was a swath of power outages and flooding issues right through the center of the country. From what I can tell, power wasn't really getting back to normal until early this week.
This basically means the markets for those products didn't really return to normal until the last few days. So, as far as prices and regional supply, it should either be back to normal now or return to normal within a few days. If it doesn't, then there might be real cause to worry.. _________________ Welcome to the Kondratieff Winter
Joined: Mar 26, 2008 Posts: 1424 Location: Seattle
Posted: Fri Oct 03, 2008 7:51 pm Post subject: Re: BIG drop in US oil consumption
As I've been regularly reporting in this thread here (which mysteriously seems to get little attention), I'll repeat my latest chart, since it's the same topic.
Quote:
Percentage rise or fall in US oil consumption ("product supplied") from year earlier period, 2008, 4-week average
Joined: Aug 03, 2007 Posts: 4610 Location: Boston Suburbs
Posted: Fri Oct 03, 2008 8:14 pm Post subject: Re: BIG drop in US oil consumption
burtonridr wrote:
Do you think the economy would be getting hit so hard if oil wasnt a portion of the problem? Seriously, think about it really hard... Oil played a role in where we are today. It might not have been what set off the chain reaction of events, but I believe it amplified them.
I'm waiting to see what happens in the northern states this winter vis a vis heating oil to see what the real impact of $100/barrel oil is. We're probably going to see the worst impact of peak oil in the home heating sector since it's a necessary expense, and retrofits require a lot of money up front which people don't have. _________________ http://doomsteaddiary.blogspot.com/
Joined: Aug 03, 2007 Posts: 4610 Location: Boston Suburbs
Posted: Fri Oct 03, 2008 8:20 pm Post subject: Re: Will demand distruction in cars be reflected in gas use?
Tyler_JC wrote:
This begs the question, why did we need so many damned cars to begin with?
There is really a surplus of everything, not just cars. This will be a good thing in the long run as we enter into a barter/hand-me-down/salvage economy. _________________ http://doomsteaddiary.blogspot.com/
Joined: May 26, 2008 Posts: 1190 Location: Chicago, IL
Posted: Fri Oct 03, 2008 8:29 pm Post subject: Re: BIG drop in US oil consumption
mos6507 wrote:
I'm waiting to see what happens in the northern states this winter vis a vis heating oil to see what the real impact of $100/barrel oil is.
And I'm waiting to see what happens at the end of the harvest season with $100 oil. Did farmers harvest 100% of their crops or let some standing because it was too expensive to harvest? _________________ 9/29/08, cube, The Dow will drop to 4,000 within 2 years
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Do you think the economy would be getting hit so hard if oil wasnt a portion of the problem? Seriously, think about it really hard... Oil played a role in where we are today. It might not have been what set off the chain reaction of events, but I believe it amplified them.
