I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Joined: May 26, 2008 Posts: 53 Location: north texas
Posted: Thu Oct 09, 2008 7:29 pm Post subject: Re: Is the Financial Crisis Ending?
Yeah, must be ending, got a letter from my financial advisor dated 10/6. (Got 95% of my money out a couple weeks ago).
Here are some excerpts: "Today we endured a full scale global financial panic; The fed can expand the money supply without limit and, at least for now, is doing exactly that.; There will be mostly positive but some negative outcomes to this measure.; I believe the EESA is necessary and will work. If the $700 billion proves insufficient, then more money will likely be authorized to help resolve the crisis.; I also see that taxpayers might be even more on the hook if, down the road, another large deposit insured bank fails.; There is a silver lining to this dark cloud. Bank lending is not "grinding to a halt" nor is there likely to be a wave of bank failures.; This is not the Great Depression II. ; These problems, while complex, are still narrowly defined.
It is important to remember that the vast majority of U.S. companies remain sound. We are in the midst of a financial crisis that is bringing on a recession, but not economic devastation. Stock prices are being driven down by what I consider to be indiscriminant selling that is not justified by the fundementals to very low valuations, making it a very bad time to abandon the long-term plan for your portfolio. I urge patience and calm."
Posted: Thu Oct 09, 2008 7:33 pm Post subject: Re: Is the Financial Crisis Ending?
nobodypanic wrote:
when a power the size of the US falters, historically speaking the tendency points to a collapse to a lower energy state of smaller regional powers, e.g., roman empire into smaller european kingdoms; (also see soviet collapse).
given that, is your position that this is instead more akin to the collapse of the roman republic into the roman empire rather than my previous example?
This issue, I think, marks the sharpest line of distinction between 'classical' Peak Oil thinking and the more conspiratorial varieties. According to the collapse theory of Lundberg, Heinberg, Kunstler, et. al., you're spot on - as less energy becomes available, we ought to see a corresponding decline in complexity. Meanwhile the Alex Jones types predict greater order and a greater centralization of power in '1984' fashion.
My own view lies somewhere between the two. I think that the collapse theory as commonly understood is too simplistic - it assumes that a move into lower energy states would be uniform across all segments of society. But given our hierarchical nature and our advanced tools for coercing and manipulating fellow humans, I find it more likely that power would accumulate toward the top - regionally, continentally, perhaps globally. Concurrently, the lower echelons of society will break down from the many niches of doctor/farmer/lawyer/plumber/waitress/tanning bed attendant/etc. into the far fewer varieties of 'peasant'. This way there can still be a net loss of energy. As far as I know, Mike Ruppert is the only one who approaches this view.
My problem with the Alex Jones types is that they don't ever ascribe a motive for NWO, depopulation schemes, etc. The theory is too incomplete.
As for an historical analogue to what we're seeing...I can't really think of any.
Posted: Thu Oct 09, 2008 7:36 pm Post subject: Re: Is the Financial Crisis Ending?
mos6507 wrote:
What, you mean Major Nelson isn't asexual?
Who is Major Nelson? All I find on google is a video game blogger and an indie rock band. _________________ "So while you sit and whistle Dixie with your money and your power.
I can hear the flowers a-growin in the rubble of the towers.
I hear leaders quit their lying
I hear babies quit their crying.
I hear soldiers quit their dying, one and all." - OCMS
Posted: Thu Oct 09, 2008 8:15 pm Post subject: Re: Is the Financial Crisis Ending?
Arsenal wrote:
I thought you would recognize the Major from your avatar.
Nope. I've actually only seen the show a couple of times. All the mods took oldies TV characters for as their avatar a few months ago. I just didn't see any reason to change it yet. _________________ "So while you sit and whistle Dixie with your money and your power.
I can hear the flowers a-growin in the rubble of the towers.
I hear leaders quit their lying
I hear babies quit their crying.
I hear soldiers quit their dying, one and all." - OCMS
Posted: Thu Oct 09, 2008 8:25 pm Post subject: Re: Is the Financial Crisis Ending?
The Nikkei is currently down over 10%. I wonder if they'll close it? _________________ Gravity is not a force, it is a boundary layer.
Everything is coincident.
Love: the state of suspended anticipation.
To get any appreciable distance from the Earth in
a sensible amount of time, you must lie.
Posted: Thu Oct 09, 2008 8:54 pm Post subject: Re: Is the Financial Crisis Ending?
Revi wrote:
There has to be a bottom. I think we'll see it in the next year or two anyway.
Probably next month or two unless the interbank lending, short term lending frees up. That is going to cripple multinational corporations that drive virtually all global trade (unless they have huge cash reserves).
Your link is broken; and Please use the hyperlink function (instructions in the 'How To Get Around This Site..." thread in the Welcome Forum.) Thank you.-FL
Posted: Thu Oct 09, 2008 11:12 pm Post subject: Re: Is the Financial Crisis Ending?
Your link is broken seazar. Unless you were trying to point to a story about a rise in Chearleeding injuries. _________________ "So while you sit and whistle Dixie with your money and your power.
I can hear the flowers a-growin in the rubble of the towers.
I hear leaders quit their lying
I hear babies quit their crying.
I hear soldiers quit their dying, one and all." - OCMS
Posted: Thu Oct 09, 2008 11:24 pm Post subject: Re: Is the Financial Crisis Ending?
FreedomSlave wrote:
As I said, there cannot be a bottom yet. Not until the foundation of this financial orgy-bubble-house of cards stablizes, and that would be real estate prices. And we are nowhere near that happening.
Exactly. (And kudos, FreedomSlave...your entire post is on the money.)
The most significant driver (but not the only one) of the current financial crisis is the American housing market crash. This is what has led to a massive increase in foreclosures, to an unprecedented national drop in housing prices, to the loss of hundreds of billions of dollars of wealth in mortgage-backed securities, to the credit crunch and to the banking crisis.
Yet this prime driver is only at the halfway point. We still have perhaps another 20% to drop in housing prices nationally, and perhaps another 2-3 years for this housing correction to play itself out. Here's some sources for this opinion:
On top of that, the enormous losses in the stock market and the continuing drop in housing prices make people feel a lot poorer, despite having the same income (if they avoid losing their jobs). Everyone and every business is already in recession mode, and the self-reinforcing feedback loop of economic contractions will continue for many, many months, leading to a very long and severe recession (if not a full-blown depression).
No, the financial crisis raging through the world economy is nowhere near finished. If this were a ballgame, I'd say we've just wrapped up the second inning. There is much, much more to come.
As for the government (or any power group) having any kind of serious control over world events, I think the wildly desperate and utterly ineffectual actions of the Fed, Treasury, White House and the world's central banks this year show that no one is running this economic mad house, not even the inmates. Earlier this year some forum members said the economy would never be "allowed" to tank before the election. No one is saying that now, are they?
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