I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Posted: Thu Oct 09, 2008 6:41 am Post subject: Re: Is solar dying?
mwellermd wrote:
The financial argument for solar, so far, hasn't worked. Paybacks are too far into the future to convince the general population that they need to make the investment. It's much easier to just plug in and use electricity at the current rate than try to forecast what the long term payback might be with an expensive solar installation.
There are too many unknowns about the future.
Will I still be in my house in ten years and will I be able to recoup my investment in the resale price?
.
Quote:
Statistics on Moving:
42 million people move each year in the U.S. – 1 in 4 adults.
People who are moving spend more during the 3 months surrounding their move than non-movers spend in 5 years.
Relocating homeowners spend as much as $10,000 on "feathering the nest" purchases alone; relocating apartment dwellers spend around $4,000.
Individuals move 11.7 times in their lifetime.
Over 15% of people moving are moving out-of-state.
The average homeowner sells his or her home every five to seven years.
Almost 40% of the families that relocate have two wage-earners.
Relocation ranks as the third most stressful life event.
Many of our customers don't live in their homes long enough to recover their investment on ultra expensive installations like solar electric systems, solar hot water systems, geothermal heating etc. When they buy a new home, much of their money goes into decorating, furnishings, kitchen/bath remodels, cosmetic and luxury improvements. By the time they've settled in, many of them move, rent, buy or build new homes.
Our customers greatest energy waste in the existing home market comes from poor insulation/weatherization/ventilation/windows, poorly designed, grossly oversized, grossly inefficient heat and hot water systems. This is where they tend to spend their money first. New heat and hot water systems often have a payback of a few years, plus they increase comfort, so they're much more popular than PV systems.
PV systems don't add much value to a home in comparison to other home improvements which add equal or greater value to a home.
Posted: Thu Oct 09, 2008 9:09 am Post subject: Re: Is solar dying?
Insulation is the best payback for sure. Solar hot water is pretty good, however. I heard that for an $8000 system you can get $2000 back for the state and $2000 from the Federal government. That gives you a two year payback if you supplant $2000 worth of electricity a year.
The average family spends like 15% of their total budget heating water. Why? Let the sun do it for free. _________________ Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
Posted: Thu Oct 09, 2008 11:54 am Post subject: Re: Is solar dying?
you can sell every single solar panal to the German market, IF(!) the price is right.
At the moment the price is simply to high (mostly because of the Spanish market demand), but at 2,50$/W PV systems will become a very attractive investment (again) in Germany.
5-6% yield return from solar systems (a real world product that sits on your houses roof and will even gain in worth if peak oil hits the world) sounds very attractive to me.
Surely more attractive than putting mony on Iceland banks or the stock market.
The price for complete PV systems have to fall to ~3200-3500€/Wp from current ~4000-4200€/Wp.
Posted: Thu Oct 09, 2008 12:48 pm Post subject: Re: Is solar dying?
mos6507 wrote:
yesplease wrote:
So... It's o.k. to take out a ten year loan to pay a new car, that will only depreciate, but expecting people to do the same for something that will be cost positive is too much to ask?
The way things are going, you'll be lucky to get a loan at all.
Yeah, it's horrible. No more low interest/no background check loans that'll reset resulting in a sky high payment given the performance of the rates they're based on. That said, for most people who have collateral, a job, and good credit, complaining about finanically irresponsible behavior is daffy. _________________
Posted: Thu Oct 09, 2008 12:56 pm Post subject: Re: Is solar dying?
mwellermd wrote:
The financial argument for solar, so far, hasn't worked. Paybacks are too far into the future to convince the general population that they need to make the investment. It's much easier to just plug in and use electricity at the current rate than try to forecast what the long term payback might be with an expensive solar installation.
There are too many unknowns about the future.
Examples:
>Will there be a leap in technology that makes it more affordable if I wait?
>Will government subsidy be higher in the future if I just wait?
>Will I still be in my house in ten years and will I be able to recoup my investment in the resale price?
I think most people aren't even aware of the coming problems and take the easier route of doing nothing.
It's worked fine, just ask owners, there's one on this forum IIRC. It's just that people tend to go for the short term fun instead of doing something that'll save them money in the long term. And that in and of itself is fine, however complaining about it is just daffy. Yes, it's so horrible we don't have solar systems that pay themselves off in a month, but for those who are a bit more patient, paying itself off within the warranty period is still good enough, especially compared to a depreciating asset, which is what I was referring to. In that case the pay-off period, while still long in the eyes of most, is definitely way shorter than the warranty period, and results in way more savings...
It's all about making fiscally responsible investments. Sure we don't have to, but using some potential for greater savings while at the same time investing out money in depreciating assets, then complaing about costs, is just silly. _________________
Posted: Thu Oct 09, 2008 12:59 pm Post subject: Re: Is solar dying?
Revi wrote:
Insulation is the best payback for sure. Solar hot water is pretty good, however. I heard that for an $8000 system you can get $2000 back for the state and $2000 from the Federal government. That gives you a two year payback if you supplant $2000 worth of electricity a year.
The average family spends like 15% of their total budget heating water. Why? Let the sun do it for free.
Solar hot water is more efficient than PV. Collecting heat from the sun to heat water is inherently more efficient than collecting photons, turning it into DC electricityat low efficiency, converting it to AC with more loss, then using it to power some device.
$8000 installed is about right for a good system. Of course the amount of money back from the state depends on which state you live in.
The numbers for payback seem a little high though. I think I calculated my payback time would be around 8 years replacing a natural gas hot water heater. Of course it depends on how high your rates are.
Anyhow I think I remember that you can expect only about a 40% reduction in your bill for hot water. Why not 100%? The system won't be adequate to replace 100% of your hot water needs such as at night, cloudy days or peaks in demand.
Posted: Thu Oct 09, 2008 8:31 pm Post subject: Re: Is solar dying?
mwellermd wrote:
The numbers for payback seem a little high though. I think I calculated my payback time would be around 8 years replacing a natural gas hot water heater. Of course it depends on how high your rates are.
Anyhow I think I remember that you can expect only about a 40% reduction in your bill for hot water. Why not 100%? The system won't be adequate to replace 100% of your hot water needs such as at night, cloudy days or peaks in demand.
Our system makes way more than 40% of our hot water. It'll make it through many cloudy days and keep water hot all night. It only drops a degree or two overnight. The next sunny day it heats back up again. We figure it does more like 60-70% of our hot water. These next few months will be tough, but it was at 115 degrees yesterday and made all our hot water.
I have to discuss the fun factor. Solar is really fun. Hot water showers using only the sun's heat can be really fun.
All our solar gadgets are right up there in fun factor with all our neighbors toys.
Tooling around town in our solar car is twice as fun as riding a smelly Harley. _________________ Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
Posted: Fri Oct 10, 2008 8:04 am Post subject: Re: Is solar dying?
Revi wrote:
mwellermd wrote:
The numbers for payback seem a little high though. I think I calculated my payback time would be around 8 years replacing a natural gas hot water heater. Of course it depends on how high your rates are.
Anyhow I think I remember that you can expect only about a 40% reduction in your bill for hot water. Why not 100%? The system won't be adequate to replace 100% of your hot water needs such as at night, cloudy days or peaks in demand.
Our system makes way more than 40% of our hot water. It'll make it through many cloudy days and keep water hot all night. It only drops a degree or two overnight. The next sunny day it heats back up again. We figure it does more like 60-70% of our hot water. These next few months will be tough, but it was at 115 degrees yesterday and made all our hot water.
I have to discuss the fun factor. Solar is really fun. Hot water showers using only the sun's heat can be really fun.
All our solar gadgets are right up there in fun factor with all our neighbors toys.
Tooling around town in our solar car is twice as fun as riding a smelly Harley.
That's good real world data considering that you're in Maine with less potential sunlight. I decided to first go the route of maximizing efficiency, it's easy and is the most cost effective thing you can do.
I'm sure there's a high feel good factor involved in making hot water from the sun.
Posted: Sun Oct 12, 2008 6:36 am Post subject: Re: Is solar dying?
Revi wrote:
Insulation is the best payback for sure. Solar hot water is pretty good, however. I heard that for an $8000 system you can get $2000 back for the state and $2000 from the Federal government. That gives you a two year payback if you supplant $2000 worth of electricity a year.
The average family spends like 15% of their total budget heating water. Why? Let the sun do it for free.
Generally speaking, our customers purchase water heaters based on initial cost, performance, operational cost, warranty, available fuels and type of space heating system.
Since hydronic heating systems are king in our region, many of our customers produce domestic hot water with their boiler's tankless coil, or indirect water heaters.
Gas & Electric water heaters are dirt cheap, so they're quite popular. We often install them for a little over cost when we install a new furnace or boiler.
Gas water heaters are quite economical, so ultra expensive water heating systems are a tough sell. Many gas and electric water heaters are also installed by homeowners, handymen and trunk-slammers without permits and inspections, so that brings the installed cost down substantially as well.
Water heating is such a small portion of the overall energy bill that people aren't likely to invest thousands of dollars in a system when they're likely to move several years later.
Energy factor (EF) refers to the amount of hot water produced per unit of fuel consumed over a day. Higher is better.
Water heating makes up 13 percent of total energy bill.
Power-vented gas water heater: Has a fan to assist venting; EF .64; average price $1,200; average annual utility cost $260; life expectancy is 10-15 years.
Atmospheric-vented gas water heater: Standard heater; EF .58; averge price $850; average annual utility cost $280. (In comparison, an equivalent model that is 10 years old will have an EF of .54 and cost $300 annually.)
Tank-style electric water heater: Significantly less efficient than gas; average price $750; average annual utility cost $550.
Tankless gas water heater: Water heated on way to destination; EF .90-plus; average price $2,200-3,600; average annual utility cost $180.
Tank heaters have a life expectancy of 10-15 years; tankless, 20-40 years.
Prices are for 50-gallon tank and on-demand Reem and A.O. Smith water heaters from Bass Plumbing in Albany. Cost estimates based on current utility rates: $1.12 per therm for gas, $0.119 per kilowatt hour for electricity.
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