I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Joined: Aug 03, 2007 Posts: 4401 Location: Boston Suburbs
Posted: Wed Oct 08, 2008 9:05 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Gold?
sittinguy wrote:
I've been buying ALL my PM's from ebay for over a year,,, I love it. I have got some good deals,,(with patience). Got a reverse proof silver eagle the other day.. What a beautiful coin
How do you verify it's genuine? _________________ As long as I am around, there are no worries we have reached "Peak Words"
Posted: Wed Oct 08, 2008 9:08 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Gold?
mos6507 wrote:
sittinguy wrote:
I've been buying ALL my PM's from ebay for over a year,,, I love it. I have got some good deals,,(with patience). Got a reverse proof silver eagle the other day.. What a beautiful coin
How do you verify it's genuine?
If a shot is fired in your direction. _________________ 500 MPH into a brick wall - me
Joined: May 27, 2008 Posts: 73 Location: middle of the USA
Posted: Wed Oct 08, 2008 11:32 pm Post subject: Re: For those of you on the metals sideline...best jump onbo
The prices have been extra high on ebay the last week or so because live.com has been offering 30% rebates to people who enter ebay through live.com (USA ebay only).
Last I heard they dropped the rebate amount to 20%, but it's still an unbelievably good deal.
Posted: Thu Oct 09, 2008 8:53 pm Post subject: Re: For those of you on the metals sideline...best jump onbo
Silver is back over $12, so I guess people are fleeing the markets of the world and stashing their money in silver again.
I don't know if this signals a rally, but the price went up steadily all day. _________________ Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
Posted: Thu Oct 09, 2008 8:56 pm Post subject: Re: For those of you on the metals sideline...best jump onbo
Revi wrote:
Silver is back over $12, so I guess people are fleeing the markets of the world and stashing their money in silver again.
I don't know if this signals a rally, but the price went up steadily all day.
Don't kid yourself. Cash is king. Read about the 1873 and 1930s depression.
You will not be able to borrow due to credit contractions and the only thing that will sustain you is a savings account (or cash money, is what I'm saying).
Joined: Dec 07, 2005 Posts: 1986 Location: Australia
Posted: Thu Oct 09, 2008 9:00 pm Post subject: Re: For those of you on the metals sideline...best jump onbo
Revi wrote:
Silver is back over $12, so I guess people are fleeing the markets of the world and stashing their money in silver again.
I don't know if this signals a rally, but the price went up steadily all day.
I am expecting some more volatility.
2 reasons.
1) POG is at a resistance level some people are motivated to defend.
2) End of week tape painting. (SO many times I've seen gold go down Fridays just to make the charts look less bullish).
What is real nice to see is the counter attacks.
i.e. yesterday from POG $880 to $917 after hours.
Today also POG was pushed to $909 and then moved back to $915. If buyers can keep up a bit longer a lot of shorts will bleed as they need to dump more and more to keep price down.
Right now this moment I think Silver is a follower.
If silver tries to go up on it's own without Gold, I think it will be taken down again. Gold can however in the slightly longer term move independently of Silver .
That doesn't mean Silvers move won't be larger in % if both move up. _________________ It's not a bailout, it's a buy-in" - Nancy Pelosi
Joined: Mar 18, 2008 Posts: 393 Location: Upstate New York
Posted: Thu Oct 09, 2008 9:01 pm Post subject: Re: For those of you on the metals sideline...best jump onbo
Jotapay wrote:
Don't kid yourself. Cash is king. Read about the 1873 and 1930s depression.
True but the first thing to recover was gold and silver. Of course back then we had the gold standard. Today cash might not be king if they keep pumping dollars into the system. Deflation first then massive inflation. You just have to get through the deflation part with your PM. Either way, having both would not be a bad thing. _________________ Arsenal
The tragedy of modern war is that the young men die fighting each other - instead of their real enemies back home in the capitals. - Edward Abbey
A man is no less a slave because he is allowed to choose a new master once in a term of years.
Joined: Dec 07, 2005 Posts: 1986 Location: Australia
Posted: Fri Oct 10, 2008 7:25 pm Post subject: Re: For those of you on the metals sideline...best jump onbo
Micki wrote:
Revi wrote:
Silver is back over $12, so I guess people are fleeing the markets of the world and stashing their money in silver again.
I don't know if this signals a rally, but the price went up steadily all day.
I am expecting some more volatility.
2 reasons.
1) POG is at a resistance level some people are motivated to defend.
2) End of week tape painting. (SO many times I've seen gold go down Fridays just to make the charts look less bullish).
What is real nice to see is the counter attacks.
i.e. yesterday from POG $880 to $917 after hours.
Today also POG was pushed to $909 and then moved back to $915. If buyers can keep up a bit longer a lot of shorts will bleed as they need to dump more and more to keep price down.
Right now this moment I think Silver is a follower.
If silver tries to go up on it's own without Gold, I think it will be taken down again. Gold can however in the slightly longer term move independently of Silver .
That doesn't mean Silvers move won't be larger in % if both move up.
And boy did we get tape painting.
Had I known Bush was going to speak, I would honestly have said POG is going down. AS mentioned several times before such is the price action of gold.
Anyway to the subject, and this is important.
LeMetropolecafe has today another warning that gold certificates etc might not often actually be backed by physical gold. That means you can forget about taking delivery. Cash settlement might be nice too, but that is more dependent on the financies of the company and any counterparties they deal with. My guess is that if they don't have physical they need to trade long elsewhere to make up the money their certificate holders may claim. Also knowing how financial institutions operate, I would say they haven't got 100% backed that either as it would cost them money. Better assume some will never cash out and some will sell at loss.
Quote:
warning - gold/silver certificates
More evidence gold/silver certificates are likely not backed by physical gold/silver. It states, "backed by the assets of the bank" instead of "100% backed by physical gold and silver". If I held certificates I would convert them to physical metal today, not a day later. This is from the ScotiaBank website:
"Whatever the reason for buying precious metals, more and more Scotiabank customers are realizing the practical advantages of purchasing certificates backed by the assets of the bank."
_________________ It's not a bailout, it's a buy-in" - Nancy Pelosi
Joined: Dec 07, 2005 Posts: 1986 Location: Australia
Posted: Thu Oct 16, 2008 8:57 pm Post subject: Re: For those of you on the metals sideline...best jump onbo
A few comments picked up along the way.
If there is no link it means I got the stuff from emailed newsletter or lemetropolecafe.
Take it for what you want. Just wanted to show that some other analysts are coming to the same conclusion as Jim Sinclair.
Bill is a commodities broker in CA.
Quote:
To all; very briefly, it's only Thursday and the Treasury has gone to the credit markets for $194 Billion so far this week for short term paper alone. Let's say they only borrow another $6 Billion tomorrow and end up at 200 Billion. Let's do the math. 200 Billion times 52 weeks is ..........$10 Trillion 400 Billion Dollars. This coincidentally equals the amount of the current national debt. The current rate of borrowing is obviously unsustainable and most certainly will be curtailed on the supply side. We are in the end game where paper contracts and naked shorts are being levied to crush prices and thus scare those with half a brain out of their metals positions. Please do not be fooled. This is outright panic by the US government trying to save an unsavable system. In the process they have debauched our currency beyond imagination. I wrote yesterday that Argentina was the road map. I was wrong. Argentina was never given this much rope to hang themselves with. The Dollar will be more akin to the Weimar republic or Zimbabwe within a year or so. The music plays on and CNBC just keeps cheerleading the Generals as they lead us off a cliff. Regards, Bill
This whole event confirms my long-held belief that when push comes to shove, the U.S. authorities will not hesitate to debase their currency in an attempt to salvage the financial system. In the fullness of time, this will be wildly inflationary
Financial institutions ran to their lender of last resort for record amounts of cash in the latest week, under extreme pressure from the worst global financial crisis in a generation, Federal Reserve data showed on Thursday.
Banks and dealers' overall direct borrowings from the Fed averaged a record $437.53 billion per day in the week ended October 15, topping the previous week's $420.16 billion per day.
Some analysts are concerned that banks' dependence on Fed lending might become long term and difficult to change.
"The banking system is going to become addicted to this very cheap money. Unwinding it will be very difficult," said Howard Simons, strategist with Bianco Research in Chicago.
Don't have much quotes, but the physical metal market seems to be further decoupling from the paper markets.
Apparently during the 70's you could frequently see instances when physical traded 100% over paper.
Right now word is Bullionvault has stopped following paper market pricing. Also premioms incresing with dealers. Example is Tulving where 1oz silver coins trade nearly $7 over spot.
SeekingAlpha also has an article on the subject.
Wonder if it will take a default for the paper markets to snap out or if the big bank short positions will have a firm grip until they have covered the lot. The default scenario would be very interesting. _________________ It's not a bailout, it's a buy-in" - Nancy Pelosi
Joined: Dec 07, 2005 Posts: 1986 Location: Australia
Posted: Mon Oct 20, 2008 6:36 am Post subject: Re: For those of you on the metals sideline...best jump onbo
Thanks for the kind words. Much appreciated.
Just remember to use what ever you read here as food for thought, form own conviction and trade/invest accordingly.
Even believers in the Gold bull story, like Marc Faber, thinks there is a chance of further drop in POG. Mainly as he (a bit like me) thinks we are in for a multi month bounce on the share market and as a result many will take the eye off the ball.
Talking about Marc Faber, he recently did a session in Slovenia that now is on youtube. Besides covering economical issues he also talked amonst other about WW3 and it was like taken from PO.com.
He mentioned that WW3, which may already have begun (or at least he talked about geopolitical tension with US, Russia and China and mentioned we may already be in war times), will mainly be fought with biological weapens, EMP and natural disasters (HAARP/Hurricanes?)
Financially he recommends putting at least some of your investments in physical like gold or other commodities that may be valuable insurance.
This is a link to part 8 where he mentions WW3.
YOUTUBE _________________ It's not a bailout, it's a buy-in" - Nancy Pelosi
Joined: Dec 07, 2005 Posts: 1986 Location: Australia
Posted: Mon Oct 20, 2008 8:25 pm Post subject: Re: For those of you on the metals sideline...best jump onbo
Latest word on the physical market.
I contacted my local coin dealer (Downies) again who is retailer of Perth Mint products and asked if they had any Silver Bullion coins at all in the shop.
The response back was that Perth Mint is unable to supply any Silver Bullion at all until earliest JANUARY 2009.
Meanwhile I have a small backorder with the shop and was expecting delivery next week.
When demanding clarification of supply date the shop only knows that PM is working on clearing backorders but cannot tell me at all when my order will be delivered.
Perth Mint has obviously accepted orders from dealers not know when (and I should include IF) at all they can deliver.
If they saw, what they claim, an unprecedented volume of orders coming through, they should have put a stop on accepting these until they were on top of the situation.
This co-insides with discussions that I have seen that early next year both Canada and Australia will introduce new rules for purchase of gold/silver, such as 100point ID proof etc.
(Word of mouth from coin dealer to GATA members)
The justification once again was something terrorism related, like tracking movement of terrorist funding blah blah. _________________ It's not a bailout, it's a buy-in" - Nancy Pelosi
Posted: Mon Oct 20, 2008 8:55 pm Post subject: Re: For those of you on the metals sideline...best jump onbo
Micki wrote:
This co-insides with discussions that I have seen that early next year both Canada and Australia will introduce new rules for purchase of gold/silver, such as 100point ID proof etc.
Joined: Dec 07, 2005 Posts: 1986 Location: Australia
Posted: Mon Oct 20, 2008 10:49 pm Post subject: Re: For those of you on the metals sideline...best jump onbo
It's probably an Aussie thing.
You got scores for thing helping to identify you.
Can't remember the exact scores but could be like
Drivers license 50p
Other photo id 50p
Passport 50p
Credit card 20p
And so on.
You need to have identification evidence adding up to 100points and at least one of them needs to be some form of id with photo.
But the worrying part is if they actually register your purchases.
i.e. Should they register books you buy? Of course not.
So why certain kinds of metal?
This is still hearsay, so not sure how likely this is, but would not be surprising at all. _________________ It's not a bailout, it's a buy-in" - Nancy Pelosi
Posted: Wed Oct 22, 2008 6:53 pm Post subject: Re: For those of you on the metals sideline...best jump onbo
Jotapay wrote:
Micki wrote:
This co-insides with discussions that I have seen that early next year both Canada and Australia will introduce new rules for purchase of gold/silver, such as 100point ID proof etc.
A what ID?
I recently read an article in one of my magazines (Money, Forbes, Fortune, Entrepreneur or BusinessWeek, can't remember which one...I think I already threw it out), about how Wal-Mart wants to purchase jewelry from only the "good guys". They want to avoid gold from conflict areas.
Everyone knows about Blood Diamonds from Africa, well, they want to be able to track where the gold originated from. The same type of program that is happening with the hardwoods from the rain forests, the logs have some type of certification on them and I believe Home Depot now sells those types of wood (flooring, etc.)
I believe Warren Buffet is a backer of this idea too, Berkshire owns Ben Bridge jewelers so this has his interest. Along with getting the world to quit smoking, him and Bill Gates.
I think this is the ID thing, but I maybe wrong altogether.
On a side note about terrorism, anyone see the PBS special about how the US Marines in Afghanistan have to leave the Taliban's poppy plants alone? These same plants provide locals their meal ticket along with the Taliban's source of opium and heroin so that they can buy AK-47's and other munitions to kill the same Marines who have to leave the plants alone...talk about a$$backwards. _________________ Every action has an opposite and equal reaction.
"Can I have a cheeseburger with no cheese?"
- Heard at a local Jack In The Box
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