I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Posted: Fri Oct 10, 2008 9:13 am Post subject: Everyone who is NOT heading for the hills, raise your hand.
I'm not retired. I'm not free to leave the city. I'm not independently wealthy (yet). And I'm a little stuck here.
My SO and I have jobs and once every two weeks, someone comes up to us and hands us money to thank us for showing up at those jobs. And then we give that money to other people, to thank them for providing electricity and groceries, etc.
Yes, if all hell broke loose, we are able to ready, willing and able to run away to a friendly place far away from the east coast. Yes, I've done the preps.
However, reading these posts I'm more than a little amazed at how many people don't seem to have any ties (obligations) to their community/work/etc.
If you, like me, are stuck in the city (due to that four-letter word WORK), what financial/social/civil/economic indicators are you paying attention to and watching? When will you know it's time to blow this popsicle stand and abandon your job and happy home and grab your groceries and head for the hills? Because leaving a job is a severe and serious thing.
What should we city dwellers be watching? What is OUR "canary in the coal mine"?
Joined: Feb 23, 2005 Posts: 511 Location: Winnipeg
Posted: Fri Oct 10, 2008 9:19 am Post subject: Re: Everyone who is NOT heading for the hills, raise your ha
When the Army is deployed to your city.
edit: close post. I'd say though that martial law would be too late. There should be some time after the deployment before curfews and martial law is imposed(or at least attempted)
However dont let the current credit crisis hysteria provoke you to move too soon. Theres at least one more boomlet coming up before the long grind down. Estimated start date, 3Q 2009.
Last edited by zoidberg on Fri Oct 10, 2008 9:23 am; edited 1 time in total
Posted: Fri Oct 10, 2008 9:23 am Post subject: Re: Everyone who is NOT heading for the hills, raise your ha
I would say it is time to get out if ATMs stop working. When you start hearing about police forces being cut to skeleton crews I would say it is time. After that the Feds will roll in the guard units to maintain order.
When that happens you might will get martial law. Do not abandon your job just yet. Just bug out for a few days. There is still a long way to go before a collapse. When it does happen it will be in short order and very quick.
Whatever you do make sure you have enough cash/gold/savings/food to make it through at least a year.
Last edited by miskatonic on Fri Oct 10, 2008 9:34 am; edited 1 time in total
Joined: Nov 27, 2004 Posts: 235 Location: The District
Posted: Fri Oct 10, 2008 9:24 am Post subject: Re: Everyone who is NOT heading for the hills, raise your ha
Good question.
There would be riots first, then the national guard... I mean, things would have to get BAD before most people would think about leaving. But, it all depends on how fast the curtain falls, I guess. _________________ What fortune has made yours is not your own. -Seneca
Posted: Fri Oct 10, 2008 9:27 am Post subject: Re: Everyone who is NOT heading for the hills, raise your ha
dohboi wrote:
Hmmm, martial law and army occupation would be more like the mine collapsing than a canary dying.
I still am not sure that urban is going to be worse than rural, but this will depend on which urban setting you are in.
Not everyone can head for the hills. For one thing there simply aren't enough hills to go around.
Peak Hills??
Urban could be far worse than rural. At least in a rural/wilderness area you could grow food or harvest berries or hunt. Few people from urban environments have the skills to live off the land. Most people would not last a day. Depending on where you go the population could be near zero.
Joined: Mar 18, 2008 Posts: 393 Location: Upstate New York
Posted: Fri Oct 10, 2008 9:30 am Post subject: Re: Everyone who is NOT heading for the hills, raise your ha
Duende wrote:
Good question. There would be riots first, then the national guard... I mean, things would have to get BAD before most people would think about leaving. But, it all depends on how fast the curtain falls, I guess.
I guess what he is saying is he wants to be ahead of the massive wave of people fleeing the cities.
I would have to agree with some of the other posts. When the ATM's stop working, riots, and troops are deployed. My canary is the riots. First news hits of that and I am in my BOV and headed to my prep house in the country. _________________ Arsenal
The tragedy of modern war is that the young men die fighting each other - instead of their real enemies back home in the capitals. - Edward Abbey
A man is no less a slave because he is allowed to choose a new master once in a term of years.
Joined: May 13, 2005 Posts: 3030 Location: The Urban Village
Posted: Fri Oct 10, 2008 9:32 am Post subject: Re: Everyone who is NOT heading for the hills, raise your ha
I'm staying, my neighbood always has an awesome halloween street party.
Every day the stock market drops another 500, 1000 points I lose some "wealth" but it makes me feel better about the future. "Growth" (from 2005 hyperinfalted levels) is over and the market, which reflects expectations about future growth are finally starting to reflect it. The real problems when they hit will be severe, I think. But there is still a lot of uncertainty about what that will entail exactly. I know a lot of people who think they are certain, may be right, but I'm not one of them.
Joined: Mar 18, 2008 Posts: 393 Location: Upstate New York
Posted: Fri Oct 10, 2008 9:32 am Post subject: Re: Everyone who is NOT heading for the hills, raise your ha
oswald622 wrote:
I'm not going anywhere, for a few reasons.
3. It's short-sighted and futile. The collapse will only last a short time; the New Order of the Ages will soon rise from the ashes like a phoenix.
In that short time you might not make it. That is the point. To get out until things stabilize. Something will take over and establish law but that might not be for a month or longer. Being in the hot zone could be very bad. Shootings, riots, looting, martial law.... _________________ Arsenal
The tragedy of modern war is that the young men die fighting each other - instead of their real enemies back home in the capitals. - Edward Abbey
A man is no less a slave because he is allowed to choose a new master once in a term of years.
Joined: Mar 18, 2008 Posts: 393 Location: Upstate New York
Posted: Fri Oct 10, 2008 9:34 am Post subject: Re: Everyone who is NOT heading for the hills, raise your ha
dinopello wrote:
I'm staying, my neighbood always has an awesome halloween street party.
Every day the stock market drops another 500, 1000 points I lose some "wealth" but it makes me feel better about the future. "Growth" (from 2005 hyperinfalted levels) is over and the market, which reflects expectations about future growth are finally starting to reflect it. The real problems when they hit will be severe, I think. But there is still a lot of uncertainty about what that will entail exactly. I know a lot of people who think they are certain, may be right, but I'm not one of them.
True. I don't think we are there yet but everyday it seems we get closer. _________________ Arsenal
The tragedy of modern war is that the young men die fighting each other - instead of their real enemies back home in the capitals. - Edward Abbey
A man is no less a slave because he is allowed to choose a new master once in a term of years.
Joined: Sep 03, 2007 Posts: 638 Location: Sunny Virginia, USA
Posted: Fri Oct 10, 2008 9:42 am Post subject: Re: Everyone who is NOT heading for the hills, raise your ha
I would leave the city if:
1) A state of war existed with Russia
2) The only gas likely to be available is the gas in my tank
3) City water stops flowing for more than 3 days
4) My wife and I become unemployed for more than 3 months
I would consider it if David Caruso want's to rename his show to "CSI - Richmond" _________________ When somebody makes a statement you don't understand, don't tell him he's crazy. Ask him what he means. -- Otto Harkaman, Space Viking
Posted: Fri Oct 10, 2008 9:44 am Post subject: Re: Everyone who is NOT heading for the hills, raise your ha
Hm, have to say I'm a bit disappointed at the doomers.
I'd say about 50% of the population would attempt to leave if riots broke out and the national guard were deployed, with banks closed and curfews set.
Short version of that is - good luck if you wait that long.
For me personally, my first key will be loss of employment and a glaring glut in the workforce making it near impossible to find even basic employment. Unrest would probably be apparent at that point, but not riots. Anyway, once things reach that level the only reason to stay in the city is a forlorn hope that things will get better. _________________ Welcome to the Kondratieff Winter
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