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Newfie
Heavy Crude
Joined: Nov 15, 2007
Posts: 339
Location: US East Coast
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 Posted: Fri Oct 10, 2008 11:47 am Post subject: Re: Lehman CDS priced |
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Exposing the depths of my ignorance here.....
What would happen if we simply declared all CDS contracts null and void? Vaporize them?
Sounds to me like it is all just a bunch of boys playing dress up with Monopoly Money anyway?
How does it effect the real world? How would it effect me?
Serious, though potentially stupid, question.
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When going through hell, keep going! Churchill
Nothing is ever lost by courtesy. It is the the cheapest of pleasures, costs nothing, and conveys much. E Wiman
I know there’s no solution, so I just enjoy what’s here and I enjoy the journey G Carlin |
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Jotapay
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Jun 21, 2008
Posts: 642
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| Posted: Fri Oct 10, 2008 11:49 am Post subject: Re: Lehman CDS priced |
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| Newfie wrote: | Exposing the depths of my ignorance here.....
What would happen if we simply declared all CDS contracts null and void? Vaporize them?
Sounds to me like it is all just a bunch of boys playing dress up with Monopoly Money anyway?
How does it effect the real world? How would it effect me?
Serious, though potentially stupid, question. |
I've been wondering the same thing. |
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MOCKBA
Heavy Crude
Joined: Sep 05, 2005
Posts: 467
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| Posted: Fri Oct 10, 2008 11:53 am Post subject: Re: Lehman CDS priced |
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| Newfie wrote: | | How does it effect the real world? How would it effect me? |
You won't be able to afford food and basic necessities... |
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skeptik
Heavy Crude
Joined: Aug 24, 2005
Posts: 415
Location: Costa Geriatrica, Spain
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| Posted: Fri Oct 10, 2008 12:12 pm Post subject: Re: Lehman CDS priced |
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| MOCKBA wrote: | | Newfie wrote: | | How does it effect the real world? How would it effect me? |
You won't be able to afford food and basic necessities... |
Why?
Mostly ( for some reason that I dont really understand) they exist in equal and opposite pairs which just net out to zero.
Just declare all CDS null and void. If as is claimed they are a form of insurance they should have been regulated under individual State law. As they are not regulated they're illegal. So they're not insurance... in which case they're a form of unregulated betting and equally illegal.
Some will win some lose. It should have the immediate effect of restoring trust in the financial markets, which seems to be the major problem. |
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Cid_Yama
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: May 27, 2007
Posts: 1723
Location: The Post Peak Oil Historian
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| Posted: Fri Oct 10, 2008 12:14 pm Post subject: Re: Lehman CDS priced |
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per CNBC now down to 8.625 cents on the dollar.
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In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act. - George Orwell
It riles them to believe that you perceive the webs they weave. - Moody Blues |
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Spanktron9
Heavy Crude
Joined: Jun 03, 2008
Posts: 190
Location: Terrified beyond the capacity for rational thought
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| Posted: Fri Oct 10, 2008 12:25 pm Post subject: Re: Lehman CDS priced |
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| Cid_Yama wrote: | | per CNBC now down to 8.625 cents on the dollar. |
Cid-
Can you or anyone explain how the talking heads on CNBC are spinning this as a positive? I'm totally confused. One guy is saying that all the 1.5 trillion dollars from these swaps is going to "flood" into the market on monday or tuesday. huh?
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Who are you going to turn to when all the crazy Peak-oil doomers end up being right? |
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shady28
Heavy Crude
Joined: Jul 06, 2005
Posts: 367
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| Posted: Fri Oct 10, 2008 12:35 pm Post subject: Re: Lehman CDS priced |
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| Spanktron9 wrote: | | Cid_Yama wrote: | | per CNBC now down to 8.625 cents on the dollar. |
Cid-
Can you or anyone explain how the talking heads on CNBC are spinning this as a positive? I'm totally confused. One guy is saying that all the 1.5 trillion dollars from these swaps is going to "flood" into the market on monday or tuesday. huh? |
Gathering the funds for this is probably a big part of what has been going on with markets over the past couple of weeks. The funds have already been gathered.
Now, settlement starts. This is a zero sum game, there are losers yes but there are winners who will be flush with cash.
The expectation is that the winners will start putting their money back into various markets.
I think in the next 3 trading days we will see some kind of a short term low on the DOW, and possibly be a short term low in commodities as well. It's possible that low is already in, but I really think it will take a few more days.
Also, clearing this out will make the market feel more confident as much of the uncertainty will be purged.
The psychology of the market is still - on bad news, sell the rumor and buy the news. The news i coming out now, once all is revealed we'll be in for a very healthy bounce.
Don't be suckered by the bounce...
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quizz
Tar Sands
Joined: Apr 25, 2006
Posts: 66
Location: Philadelphia
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Tanada
Expert
Joined: Apr 28, 2005
Posts: 3879
Location: West shore Lake Eire, MI, USA
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| Posted: Fri Oct 10, 2008 4:30 pm Post subject: Re: Day Of Reckoning |
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| Bas wrote: | dow futures are about 4% lower at 8250...we'll see in five minutes what that means....
Bloomberg futures |
I heard a news blurb today that 50% of peopel invested in hedge funds are pulling out as their annual opertunity comes due and this is dominoing into the hedge funds being forced to sell gold bullion to raise the cash to cut the investors loose.
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Always appeal to a man's enlightened self interest, you can trust him to look out for himself honestly, It's when you appeal to his Honor or the Common Good that he stops paying attention. |
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Zardoz
Expert
Joined: Dec 02, 2005
Posts: 6684
Location: Oil-addicted Southern Californucopia
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| Posted: Fri Oct 10, 2008 4:42 pm Post subject: Re: Day Of Reckoning |
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| Cabrone wrote: | | Could this be the day the system goes supernova? |
Nope.
Not to say it won't, but not today, as it turns out.
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"Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen |
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Denny
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Jul 10, 2004
Posts: 1696
Location: Canada
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| Posted: Fri Oct 10, 2008 4:57 pm Post subject: Re: Day Of Reckoning |
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| Bas wrote: | | dow futures are about 4% lower at 8250...we'll see in five minutes what that means.... |
That is the figure Suze Orman predicted for the DJ bottom just a few days ago. I don't think she has any special talent or the like, but its interesting. At the time, I thought she was extreme in her pessism.
Let's hope whe was right about that. At the end of the day Friday, its at 8,451. |
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Jotapay
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Jun 21, 2008
Posts: 642
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| Posted: Fri Oct 10, 2008 5:27 pm Post subject: Re: Day Of Reckoning |
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| Denny wrote: | | Bas wrote: | | dow futures are about 4% lower at 8250...we'll see in five minutes what that means.... |
That is the figure Suze Orman predicted for the DJ bottom just a few days ago. I don't think she has any special talent or the like, but its interesting. At the time, I thought she was extreme in her pessism.
Let's hope she was right about that. At the end of the day Friday, its at 8,451. |
If I hear one more time how we're at the end of the credit crisis or the real estate bottom or market bottom, my head is going to explode. |
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ReverseEngineer
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Jul 16, 2008
Posts: 1490
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| Posted: Fri Oct 10, 2008 5:33 pm Post subject: Re: Day Of Reckoning |
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| Jotapay wrote: | | Denny wrote: | | Bas wrote: | | dow futures are about 4% lower at 8250...we'll see in five minutes what that means.... |
That is the figure Suze Orman predicted for the DJ bottom just a few days ago. I don't think she has any special talent or the like, but its interesting. At the time, I thought she was extreme in her pessism.
Let's hope she was right about that. At the end of the day Friday, its at 8,451. |
If I hear one more time how we're at the end of the credit crisis or the real estate bottom or market bottom, my head is going to explode. |
"Bottom" and this "Market" in the same sentence is an Oxymoron. Like Jumbo Shrimp, Military Intelligence or Republican Ethics, its self contradictory.
There IS no bottom to a Black Hole. Ben can cut down every last tree int he world and run it thru the printing press, he can express the national debt in exponential notation, it STILL would not fill this hole.
Its the Zero Point. The money HAS NO VALUE. Gold HAS NO VALUE. GRASP IT. Only Food and Power have meaning as concepts right now here on the Good Ship Earth. In the hereafter, what you have in your spirit is the wealth that will count.
See You on the Other Side
Reverse Engineer |
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