I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Joined: May 26, 2008 Posts: 1157 Location: Chicago, IL
Posted: Fri Oct 10, 2008 1:57 pm Post subject: Re: Just an observation
davep wrote:
I read somewhere that people from countries which have been exposed to alcohol for thousands of years (e.g. mediterranean) have a lower tendency to alcoholism, because over the years individuals who were prone to alcoholism were stigmatised socially and tended to reproduce less. Over many years this has an effect of the gene pool.
Thanks, Davep. So man created booze, drank it, the weak couldn't function without Viagra, and the strong passed its Teflon-genes down the line, all this naturally. I think you have a point. Thanks again.
Between us, are you saying that at a pub, I should buy the guys as much booze as possible to weaken the competition? _________________ 9/29/08, cube, The Dow will drop to 4,000 within 2 years
Joined: Aug 03, 2006 Posts: 4331 Location: Graceland
Posted: Fri Oct 10, 2008 1:58 pm Post subject: Re: Just an observation
It seems to me that we ARE becoming more well adapted, but it is to an environment that is utterly artificial and ethereal.
Thus, just about the time we begin to see natural selection for greater thumb dexterity, a new Blackberry model will come out that uses the index fingers for data entry.
The natural selection I see is toward worker drones who don't question things too much, but who like the tube steak boogie and have access to surgeons who can perform c-sections.
That sort of selection would never occur in a more traditional culture that relied more or less solely on renewable resources for survival. _________________
Joined: May 26, 2008 Posts: 1157 Location: Chicago, IL
Posted: Fri Oct 10, 2008 2:05 pm Post subject: Re: Just an observation
BigTex wrote:
It seems to me that we ARE becoming more well adapted, but it is to an environment that is utterly artificial and ethereal. Thus, just about the time we begin to see natural selection for greater thumb dexterity, a new Blackberry model will come out that uses the index fingers for data entry. The natural selection I see is toward worker drones who don't question things too much, but who like the tube steak boogie and have access to surgeons who can perform c-sections. That sort of selection would never occur in a more traditional culture that relied more or less solely on renewable resources for survival.
Not that I want to share the ad hominem I was able to gather this afternoon, but I was wondering if I was the only "lunatic" around here. _________________ 9/29/08, cube, The Dow will drop to 4,000 within 2 years
Posted: Fri Oct 10, 2008 2:43 pm Post subject: Re: Just an observation
Selection pressures and the reproductive fitness of individuals or an entire population are a completely different conversation than whether or not natural selection is occurring. The only lunacy here is the apparent insistence on conflating these concepts to support some half assed idea you obviously came up with while eating your cornflakes this morning. Making sweeping generalizations about entire periods of history without having any support for those sweeping generalizations is utterly ridiculous and fully deserving of satire.
So if you're trying to make the argument that a decline in apparent selection pressures has led to a generalized decrease in reproductive fitness of the average human being -- which is at least a potentially salient argument -- then please at least attempt to do so without sounding like a blithering idiot in the meantime. If that IS the argument you're trying to make, I think it ignores the fact that other than a few exceedingly basic things that directly impact reproductive fitness, such as sterility or death, the reproductive fitness of a generalized population is impossible to determine, except in retrospect.
The people who make this sort of argument often start with preconceived notions of what they think "fitness" is -- and, since empirical evidence is impossible to produce, circular logic is employed in its absence. "These traits make a person unfit; these people are unfit because they have these traits." You might as well say "I don't like black people because they're black" -- nevermind that "black", like "fitness", is a non-empirical construct. You could talk 'til you're blue in the face about the melanin content of the skin and IQ and brain size and racial origins, and it wouldn't matter because it's STILL a construct.
As it should be needless to say, but unfortunately isn't, this sort of conversation is utterly fruitless, since nothing at all can be concluded from it -- "Hmm, people who die in car accidents tend to be less fit for reproduction than people who do not!". Also unfortunately, this rarely seems to stop people from trying to make such ridiculous conclusions.
Joined: Aug 03, 2007 Posts: 4401 Location: Boston Suburbs
Posted: Fri Oct 10, 2008 3:10 pm Post subject: Re: Just an observation
Modern society sets the bar really low on what constitutes 'fitness'. It sets a pretty strong safety net underneath us so that those who would normally not be able to function in a 'primitivist' world (like Golem) are able to live out a full lifespan and reproduce. The only genetic filteration in the first world is the choice that women exercise. Women in the end settle for what provides the most security. These days that means more Bill Gates nerds than you'd see hook up in the old days. So on that basis I'd say the gene pool is getting 'weaker'. _________________ As long as I am around, there are no worries we have reached "Peak Words"
Joined: May 26, 2008 Posts: 1157 Location: Chicago, IL
Posted: Fri Oct 10, 2008 3:16 pm Post subject: Re: Just an observation
Devin wrote:
The only lunacy here is the apparent insistence on conflating concepts to support some half assed idea you obviously came up with while eating your cornflakes this morning. Making sweeping generalizations about entire periods of history without having any support for those sweeping generalizations is utterly ridiculous and fully deserving of satire.
Ok, you win, you must have taken the asshole pill this morning, while we were eating cornflakes. _________________ 9/29/08, cube, The Dow will drop to 4,000 within 2 years
Posted: Fri Oct 10, 2008 3:46 pm Post subject: Re: Just an observation
mos6507, while your description of the current state of affairs might be accurate, though imprecise, the conclusion that the gene pool is "weaker" based on that description is fallacious. Using examples from the past of what fitness used to look like and applying that to an as-yet-unknown future scenario is that same fallacy. Selection pressures are ever-changing, and the "strength" of the current gene-pool is always yet-to-be-determined, always inconclusive.
This is no mere philosophical argument, either, the process of evolution follows the exact same indeterminate pattern. No species exists in a permanent, fixed environment -- speciation and extinction events are based on ever-changing, wholly arbitrary environmental conditions.
So unless you know the future, and I mean the WHOLE future -- or just think you know what's best -- any kind of conclusion is premature, to say the least. This is where the word "hubris" might be used appropriately.
----
On edit: As a tangent, similar misunderstandings led to the idea of Social Darwinism and rationalizations for slavery and for genocide of the Native Americans. This fallacy/hubris is taken to an extreme in those who believe in using/want to use (or at least support the idea of using) eugenics to increase the fitness of the human population. Eugenics was used, at least in part, as justification for the policies of Nazi Germany, including the Holocaust.
This is not a misunderstanding with minor consequences.
Posted: Fri Oct 10, 2008 6:04 pm Post subject: Re: Just an observation
[quote="Newfie"]
Newfie wrote:
The question is not about what would make a better world or if an individual off spring from a 40+ couple (oldsters) would be better off than 10 from a 16 year old couple (youngsters.)
The question is, relating to selection, which couple will have the better chance to propagate their genes? .
Sir, why the pomposity to propagate YOUR genes ? I will not argue genetics and evolution, and Darwinism. I simply do not know enough to delve into deep discussion on the subject.
You can toss tens, even hundreds, of your offspring all over the place, but it doesn't amount to a hill of beans in the long run. Folks have been doing that for millennia. But, if you feel you are better schooled in the subject than the good professor then that is fine with me. Have it your way.
Joined: Apr 08, 2006 Posts: 1442 Location: Somewhere there
Posted: Sat Oct 11, 2008 12:52 am Post subject: Re: Just an observation
VMarcHart wrote:
Pretorian wrote:
My grandmother was a slave at one of the Soviet collective farms since she was 11 or so ... my bloodline is 4 billion years old or so, and none of my trillions of ancestors has failed me. The genes you have are not really yours. You are just a messenger. You can throw the message away, you can fail to deliver, you can crap on to it or add something (shitty mostly) from yourself, but you still just a messenger. The message is not yours.
Sorry your grandmother had a tough life, but millions had equal or worser lives. You're not getting any tears from me. Passing my bloodline and let my decendents have the life of your grandmother is very selfish, disrespectful and inconsiderate to say the least. Since there are 6.7 "messengers" on the planet and we all came from the same "4-billion old" originator, it doesn't take but 1 to pass the "message". The message we are passing with infinite and uncontrollable reproduction is we don't care for our decendents.
Save your tears man, you will need them later in life to make a living once you are 80. My grandma didnt have a lot of plastic toys and didnt waste much food but she lived with a sound mind till 86 without taking any pill or seeing any doctor, and she had 4, 5 visitors every day-- good luck matching her record.
My point was that it is endlessly selfish to spit on all that effort which led you to the point when you could take care of yourself. Well, may be your failure was factored in by your parents /grandparents anyway, if you have plenty of siblings and cousins that is.
But let me thank you , on behalf of all men who will leave a trace on this planet, for making our task a tiny bit easier.
Joined: Apr 08, 2006 Posts: 1442 Location: Somewhere there
Posted: Sat Oct 11, 2008 1:00 am Post subject: Re: Just an observation
VMarcHart wrote:
Devin wrote:
I state there is no way to determine what is and isn't favorable and you ask me to provide empirical evidence of a trait becoming favorable. Can I have that break now?!
So there's no way to say we're experiencing natural selection. Chances are we aren't, but for sure we are experiencing a population explosion.
As for the break, sure thing, and FYI, all you need to do is stop writing.
Posted: Sat Oct 11, 2008 1:32 am Post subject: Re: Just an observation
The mistake being made here on all ends is the concept that Natural Selection necessarily takes place on the individula end, but really what we are talking about is NS on the collective end among social organisms.
Looked at from the aggregate perspective, human society is best looked at as a Bee Hive, with worker bees and soldier bees and queen bees etc all fulfilling roles in the society. Your society organized in such a fashion can't exist with ALL people being Kings or Queens, you need Workers and you need Soldiers. If you develop a Eugenics system and breed all Einsteins, WTF is gonna scrub the toilets the Einsteins sit on while they scheme up new Derivatives for the Stock Market? LOL.
As societies collectivized around agriculture, centralization of wealth and power developed classes of people who for the most part were bound into their class as slaves or rulers. Further specialization of roles came to be through the Trades like toolmaker, blacksmith, watchmaker etc, and the tradesmen eventually became entities unto themselves in the form of companies and then corporations. Human society in its selection process since this time has never really been about either intellect or physical prowess for the most part, its mostly about given classes breeding within their own class to perpetuate what was a successful social system as a whole for devouring the earth. Actually, Indian society really codified this in their Caste system, as did early Japanese society under the Samurai.
In terms of natural selection operating on the individual level, it only will occur when there is a sufficient die off to make those most fit to survive in a given environment the ones who will reproduce effectively. If we knock ourselves down to the stone age fast enough, this could happen for human beings again, but as it looks right now before we get down that far general species die off and the collapse of the food chain will make that impossible.
In the event the food chain does NOT collapse completely, eventually we will reform up as a social organism, but the principles don't have to be entirely the same if we retain the understanding of how we came to be this way to begin with. Society never can be perfectly egalitarian, some folks are always stronger than others, some are always smarter than others. Some roles in society have more value to more people than others do. However, you do not need or want such extreme variations in the distribution of wealth of a society that some fly around in Private Jets and plow $5000 whores every nigth while others starve and die. Societies of humans need to be limited in size and in their geographical scope on the surface of the earth. Approximately 10,000 Human Souls in any given society by my estimation, in perhaps a good area around 25,000 square miles in circumference.
This CAN be an outcome of the devastation that comes upon us now, but only if the ideas and the knowledge of what brought us to this apocalypse are retained in some fashion. That CAN happen also, because the written word can survive for millenia, as it has since the Bible was written. Just people did not listen to the important lessons written therin, and rather used religion for evil purposes for their own self aggrandizement. Its really not IMPORTANT whether Jesus was the Son of God or not, its the understanding of human nature that is important here. Its possible to understand this without reading the Bible, I came to the same conclusions simply by studying mathematics and the physical world and watching the behavior of human beings for 50 years. If I could figure this out that way, and it is congruet with what others figured out more than 2000 years ago in some cases, there MUST be some truth to it.
Joined: May 26, 2008 Posts: 1157 Location: Chicago, IL
Posted: Sat Oct 11, 2008 5:37 am Post subject: Re: Just an observation
Pretorian wrote:
VMarcHart wrote:
Pretorian wrote:
My grandmother was a slave at one of the Soviet collective farms since she was 11 or so ... my bloodline is 4 billion years old or so, and none of my trillions of ancestors has failed me. The genes you have are not really yours. You are just a messenger. You can throw the message away, you can fail to deliver, you can crap on to it or add something (shitty mostly) from yourself, but you still just a messenger. The message is not yours.
Sorry your grandmother had a tough life, but millions had equal or worser lives. You're not getting any tears from me. Passing my bloodline and let my decendents have the life of your grandmother is very selfish, disrespectful and inconsiderate to say the least. Since there are 6.7 "messengers" on the planet and we all came from the same "4-billion old" originator, it doesn't take but 1 to pass the "message". The message we are passing with infinite and uncontrollable reproduction is we don't care for our decendents.
Save your tears man, you will need them later in life to make a living once you are 80. My grandma didnt have a lot of plastic toys and didnt waste much food but she lived with a sound mind till 86 without taking any pill or seeing any doctor, and she had 4, 5 visitors every day-- good luck matching her record.
I have no intention whatsoever to live the life of your grandmother, much less matching her record. FYI, my great grandfather lived way passed 86, and my grandparents are older than 86. So there, whatever genes you have, I must have better.
Pretorian wrote:
My point was it is endlessly selfish to spit on all that effort which led you to the point when you could take care of yourself.
Could you please re-explain this?
Pretorian wrote:
Well, may be your failure...
Failure of what?
Pretorian wrote:
...was factored in by your parents/grandparents anyway, if you have plenty of siblings and cousins that is.
I come from a small, that puts emphasis on quality instead of quantity, myself not included.
Pretorian wrote:
But let me thank you, on behalf of all men who will leave a trace on this planet, for making our task a tiny bit easier.
Pretorian, you understand there are over 6.7 billion inhabitants on this planet and all of us facing a nasty die-off because we're leaving too many traces, as you aptly put it, don't you? There's no need to continue to procreate at the current pace. Perhaps after if and when population drops to 500,000, then yes, procreate and propagate at will until the next die-off. There's no need today for every couple to have one child. _________________ 9/29/08, cube, The Dow will drop to 4,000 within 2 years
Posted: Sat Oct 11, 2008 5:37 am Post subject: Re: Just an observation
[quote="Consensi"]
Newfie wrote:
Newfie wrote:
The question is not about what would make a better world or if an individual off spring from a 40+ couple (oldsters) would be better off than 10 from a 16 year old couple (youngsters.)
The question is, relating to selection, which couple will have the better chance to propagate their genes? .
Sir, why the pomposity to propagate YOUR genes ? I will not argue genetics and evolution, and Darwinism. I simply do not know enough to delve into deep discussion on the subject.
You can toss tens, even hundreds, of your offspring all over the place, but it doesn't amount to a hill of beans in the long run. Folks have been doing that for millennia. But, if you feel you are better schooled in the subject than the good professor then that is fine with me. Have it your way.
Let me correct this statement. You probably do have good genes, that I cannot argue. The OP centered around over- population and die-off. The introduction of genetics and evolution was a side issue intended to support the idea of waiting until one is older before bringing children into this world, and fewer children at that. Your idea of producing lots of off-spring is an old and obsolete, agrarian practice. It is that idea I disagree with, not the quality of your genes.
Joined: May 26, 2008 Posts: 1157 Location: Chicago, IL
Posted: Sat Oct 11, 2008 5:38 am Post subject: Re: Just an observation
Pretorian wrote:
VMarcHart wrote:
Devin wrote:
I state there is no way to determine what is and isn't favorable and you ask me to provide empirical evidence of a trait becoming favorable. Can I have that break now?!
So there's no way to say we're experiencing natural selection. Chances are we aren't, but for sure we are experiencing a population explosion.
As for the break, sure thing, and FYI, all you need to do is stop writing.
Do you even know what natural selection is?
Please explain it to me. Thanks. _________________ 9/29/08, cube, The Dow will drop to 4,000 within 2 years
Joined: Nov 15, 2007 Posts: 339 Location: US East Coast
Posted: Sat Oct 11, 2008 8:35 am Post subject: Re: Just an observation
Consensi wrote:
Consensi wrote:
Newfie wrote:
The question is not about what would make a better world or if an individual off spring from a 40+ couple (oldsters) would be better off than 10 from a 16 year old couple (youngsters.)
The question is, relating to selection, which couple will have the better chance to propagate their genes? .
Sir, why the pomposity to propagate YOUR genes ? I will not argue genetics and evolution, and Darwinism. I simply do not know enough to delve into deep discussion on the subject.
You can toss tens, even hundreds, of your offspring all over the place, but it doesn't amount to a hill of beans in the long run. Folks have been doing that for millennia. But, if you feel you are better schooled in the subject than the good professor then that is fine with me. Have it your way.
Let me correct this statement. You probably do have good genes, that I cannot argue. The OP centered around over- population and die-off. The introduction of genetics and evolution was a side issue intended to support the idea of waiting until one is older before bringing children into this world, and fewer children at that. Your idea of producing lots of off-spring is an old and obsolete, agrarian practice. It is that idea I disagree with, not the quality of your genes.
Consensi,
Thanks for clearing that up. And I fixed the quote headers to keep straight who said what.
There seems to be a lot of confusion about what Natural Selection is and how it works. I'm not sure how to clear this up on this board. It is has nothing to nothing to do with what we want to happen and has all to do with what will happen to our off spring.
I agree that there are too many people and that we are facing a die-off.
Natural selection is about the environment favoring the reproduction of one set over another. There is no morality in nature, thus there is no good/bad, no desirable/undesirable traits.
As has been noted previously, by both sides of the argument,Western folks are getting softer and are changing. Good/bad, desirable/undesirable are undefined dimensions. They simply do not exist in the math. They DO exist in our ethical systems.
It is simple, if you do not reproduce you do not pass on your genes. Period. If you reproduce more then you pass on more genes and the more you reproduce the more chance your genes have.
It is MATH not morality. _________________ When going through hell, keep going! Churchill
Nothing is ever lost by courtesy. It is the the cheapest of pleasures, costs nothing, and conveys much. E Wiman
I know there’s no solution, so I just enjoy what’s here and I enjoy the journey G Carlin
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