Record Ice Loss in Arctic 2008

xironman · Tar Sands Joined: Mar 13, 2007 Posts: 36

Because there is so much unusually open water to refreeze during the long dark winter? Actually the ice will act as a cap keeping the water from exhausting heat to the atmosphere.

dorlomin · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Aug 05, 2007 Posts: 1124

Last year the big melt was in July which meant the water was very warm come September, this year the biggest melt was august, less time for the sun to heat the water. The anolomy is currently stable at about 2km^2.

Tanada

Chart (large)

Looks pretty run of the mill compared to last year, and last year had a slow start.
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dorlomin · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Aug 05, 2007 Posts: 1124

Chart (large) The Milankovitch cycle is something that has caught my attention recently. It seems that over the past thousand years or so we have had a very significant drop in the summer insolation at the 65 deg north. This suggests that there is vastly less energy midsummer to melt ice and snow, also that general Europe should have shown a very marked cooling trend over its summers.

In my mind this kind of helps explain the medeval warm period in the North and the little ice age, these are the trends we would be expecting when the insolation is falling from about 505 WM^2 down to something like 460WM^2. I think combined with global dimming the fact that the ice is retreating under these huge negative forcings is very very telling.

But I thought Id thorugh this out and see what others thought about it.

dissident · Heavy Crude Joined: Apr 08, 2006 Posts: 455

The solar forcing in the graph is on an exaggerated scale. It simply does not vary much on these timescales. The orbital eccentricity has a greater effect. But your idea is correct, we were supposed to be ramping into another ice age instead of losing glaciers around the globe.

dorlomin · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Aug 05, 2007 Posts: 1124

Here is a graph with the scale: link

I thinks its been about a 9% drop, but Im a bit fuzzy on the exact timescale.

dissident · Heavy Crude Joined: Apr 08, 2006 Posts: 455

Oops, I was thinking of the wrong thing. Insolation at the surface is a function of the orbital precession.

Tanada

Tanada

Based on visible light imagery on the Cryosphere today site it appears that the Northeast passage closed yesterday, October 8th. From August 25th to October 7th is 43 days unless I miscounted somewhere, which is six full weeks and a day. The southern branch of the Northwest passage remains open as of that date (yesterday).

This means it is no longer possible to circumnavigate the arctic ice cap unless you have an icebreaker or you go through the Northwest passage and then south around Asia to the Suez canal and back to your homeport Wink

but that seems like an awful long trip to prove a point.
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billg

The Canadian Ice Service has finally released its images showing the progression of perennial ice build-up/deterioration in the Arctic Ocean through Sept. 30, 2008. Scroll down the page and you will see 2 separate animations for Sept 7, 2007 through June 8, 2008 and June 1, 2008 through Sept 30, 2008. Notice that in the second animation, it shows the perennial ice quickly disappear, but then it miraculously reappears over the course of the summer. link
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startswithearthquakes · Tar Sands Joined: May 27, 2008 Posts: 93

billg

According to the Canadian Ice Service animations, it appears that the perennial ice (in solid white) completely vanished in June or July 2008, but so far is there no confirmation from any other source?
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Tanada

billg

Arctic Report Card 2008: link

Lots of freaky graphs and charts to look at. XXX rated stuff.
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billg