I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Joined: Mar 04, 2005 Posts: 2736 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Thu Sep 18, 2008 9:18 pm Post subject: Re: Global Warming News links
dohboi, I also saw this the other day, which ties in nicely with our discussion. You can see that most of the melting in Greenland occur in the smaller glaciers, so we haven't reached tipping point. Now if melting of these smaller glaciers slows, then this may indicate that the larger ice cap is beginning to melt too.
Small Glaciers -- Not Large -- Account For Most Of Greenland's Recent Loss Of Ice, Study Shows
Quote:
The recent dramatic melting and breakup of a few huge Greenland glaciers have fueled public concerns over the impact of global climate change, but that isn't the island's biggest problem.
A new study shows that the dozens of much smaller outflow glaciers dotting Greenland's coast together account for three times more loss from the island's ice sheet than the amount coming from their huge relatives.
In a study just published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, scientists at Ohio State University reported that nearly 75 percent of the loss of Greenland ice can be traced back to small coastal glaciers.
sciencedaily _________________ Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.
Posted: Thu Sep 18, 2008 10:00 pm Post subject: Re: Global Warming News links
Yeah, they were discussing this a bit back a while over at realclimate. What is unclear to me is whether these smaller glaciers act as corks which, once released, will allow much faster flows of larger masses of ice. I understand of course that the flow to the sea is also constrained by the size of the gateways--gaps between the coastal mountains.
I asked over at realclimate about feedback loops (soot, earthquakes, upheaval) that haven't been accounted for in most of the models, and they pretty much acknowledged that, except for an '05 paper by Hansen, no one has really included these important accelerators into their scenarios.
Everything seems to keep going faster than all the models predict--by decades and even centuries--so I am now sanguine that we have an accurate take on just exactly how fast things could come apart.
Joined: Mar 04, 2005 Posts: 2736 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Thu Sep 18, 2008 10:22 pm Post subject: Re: Global Warming News links
It looks like we will soon find out a lot more about these transitions or "abrupt climate change".
Abrupt Climate Change Focus Of U.S. National Laboratories
Quote:
Abrupt climate change is a potential menace that hasn’t received much attention. That’s about to change. Through its Climate Change Prediction Program, the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Biological and Environmental Research (OBER) recently launched IMPACTS – Investigation of the Magnitudes and Probabilities of Abrupt Climate Transitions – a program led by William Collins of Berkeley Lab’s Earth Sciences Division (ESD) that brings together six national laboratories to attack the problem of abrupt climate change, or ACC.
Collins, who heads the Climate Science Department in ESD, is the principal investigator for IMPACTS, which will bring together the work of experts in physical, chemical, and biogeochemical climate processes and in computer simulations of the whole Earth system. Argonne, Los Alamos, Lawrence Berkeley, Lawrence Livermore, Oak Ridge, and Pacific Northwest are the participating national laboratories.
“IMPACTS is one part of a two-pronged approach to studying abrupt climate change, one based in the universities and the other in the national labs,” says Collins. “Both elements will share a central web-based portal, with all the participants meeting annually.” The goal is to understand possible mechanisms of abrupt climate change well enough to build comprehensive computer models, Collins says, and to make accurate predictions before abrupt climate change strikes again.
The IMPACTS team will initially focus on four types of ACC:
instability among marine ice sheets, particularly the West Antarctic ice sheet;
positive feedback mechanisms in subarctic forests and arctic ecosystems, leading to rapid methane release or large-scale changes in the surface energy balance;
destabilization of methane hydrates (vast deposits of methane gas caged in water ice), particularly in the Arctic Ocean; and
feedback between biosphere and atmosphere that could lead to megadroughts in North America.
Here's a little information on the magnitude of the temperature change, and the speed of the transition in Greenland (and possibly elsewhere):
If Climate Changes, It May Change Quickly
Quote:
Last October, a team headed by Dr. Taylor reported that it had analyzed another Greenland core segment and discovered that most of the transition from the deep freeze of the Younger Dryas to the warmth of the last 10,000 years, called the Holocene period, had come in two quick temperature jumps, each of nearly 10 degrees and each lasting less than a decade, within a 40-year transition period.
Dr. Severinghaus and his colleagues have made a similar discovery and, in addition, have found evidence that the climatic change signified by the ice corings extended beyond Greenland to the wider world. The discoveries were reported in the Jan. 8 issue of the journal Nature.
In a stratum of ice representing a time period when the temperature changed sharply, the lighter forms migrate to the top while heavier ones gravitate to the bottom. Applying this analysis to the Younger Dryas-Holocene transition, the Severinghaus team discovered that the transition had begun with a sharp rise of about 9 to 18 degrees Fahrenheit, on the way to an increase of about 27 degrees. A computer analysis of the nitrogen isotopes' behavior suggested that the initial jump had taken place in less than a decade.
nytimes _________________ Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.
Joined: Mar 04, 2005 Posts: 2736 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2008 6:23 pm Post subject: Re: Global Warming News links
This is partly journalistic sensationalism. It's still too early to make definite conclusions about what might happen:
Quote:
Professor Westbrook said the area surveyed off the west coast of Svalbard was very different to the area being studied by the Russian vessel because the water was much deeper and does not have a layer of permafrost sealing the methane under the seabed.
It is likely that methane emissions off Svalbard have been continuous for about 15,000 years – since the last ice age – but as yet no one knows whether recent climactic shifts in the Arctic have begun to accelerate them to a point where they could in themselves exacerbate climate change, he said.
independent _________________ Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.
Posted: Thu Oct 09, 2008 11:36 pm Post subject: Re: Global Warming News links
The Forever Drought bites deep and hard:
Grim water forecast for northern Victoria (Australia)
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/10/10/2387611.htm
A 42% reduction in Murray River and a 48% reduction in Goulburn River inflows is a "Will The Last Person Leaving Their Farms Please Switch Off The Lights" event.
And still the yearly CO2 emission levels keeps climbing. Hey maybe when Australia grows no more food, something just might happen?
Too bad it will be very little, very late and will have no real effect.
Joined: Mar 04, 2005 Posts: 2736 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Sun Oct 12, 2008 7:43 pm Post subject: Re: Global Warming News links
Climate author goes political
Quote:
He agrees the crux of his book comes down to a single alarming sentence on page 28: "People have simply no idea how serious this issue is."
It's so serious, he said, that unless we reach a point where we stop emitting greenhouse gases entirely, 80 per cent of the world's species will become extinct, and human civilization as we know it will be destroyed, by the end of this century.
"Climate scientists who grapple with this every day ... we see where it's headed. We understand it very well.
canada _________________ Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.
Joined: Mar 04, 2005 Posts: 2736 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Wed Oct 15, 2008 11:03 pm Post subject: Re: Global Warming News links
Cold feet on climate change?
Quote:
In March 2007, European leaders embarked on the most far-reaching and ambitious EU policy undertaken since the launch of the euro. They not only agreed on a 20% target for overall emissions reduction by 2020, but – crucially – binding targets for 20% of all energy to be sourced from renewables, and for 10% of transport fuels to come from biofuels.
Now, with full-blown recession in Europe a serious possibility, politicians are getting cold feet. It's not hard to see why.
The scale of the package is breathtaking. In Britain, it would mean around 40% of electricity being generated from renewable sources (up from under 5% today), within a decade. Building five new wind turbines every single working day from now until 2020 would get us just over halfway to meeting this target. Throw in the £23bn Severn barrage, and just 65% of the target will have been attained.
In a highly influential report, consultants McKinsey (pdf) suggested that the cost of bringing global emissions down to safe levels could come in at less than €40 per tonne, predominantly achieved through energy efficiency and better management of forests and agriculture. A more recent report (pdf) on climate change policy in Germany (Europe's largest emitter) found that by 2020: "A reduction of 31% is possible with measures that cost less than €20 per tonne of CO2 or are part of the already planned change in energy mix."
guardian _________________ Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.
Joined: Mar 04, 2005 Posts: 2736 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Thu Oct 16, 2008 8:15 pm Post subject: Re: Global Warming News links
California's Otherwise Strong Global Warming Plan Stumbles on Cap-and-Trade
Quote:
The Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) today gave high marks to the California Air Resources Board's (CARB) near-final implementation plan for the state's landmark global-warming-pollution-reduction law, but said its cap-and-trade provisions were still deficient.
"The plan is a huge step forward," said Erin Rogers, climate strategy manager in UCS's California office. "It will help California build a stronger, cleaner economy that will create jobs, insulate us from oil price spikes, and cut the pollution that causes global warming. But the plan still stumbles when it comes to establishing a viable cap-and-trade system, which is a key component of any responsible strategy."
ucsusa _________________ Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.
Joined: Mar 04, 2005 Posts: 2736 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Fri Oct 17, 2008 9:46 pm Post subject: Re: Global Warming News links
Greenhouse gas emissions to be cut by 80 per cent, says Government
Quote:
Britain has become the first country in the world to make a legally-binding commitment to cut its greenhouse gas emissions by 80per cent by the middle of the century.
Ed Miliband, the new Climate Change and Energy Secretary, said that the current target of 60 per cent was not stringent enough to tackle global warning.
He told MPs that the Government would not "row back" on green issues, despite the pressures on the economy of the current downtown.
Describing the new target, which is compared with 1990 levels, as "tough but doable," Mr Miliband said: "We all know that signing up to an 80 per cent cut in 2050, when most of us will not be around, is the easy part.
"The hard part is meeting it - and meeting the milestones that will show we're on track.
telegraph _________________ Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.
Joined: Mar 04, 2005 Posts: 2736 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Thu Oct 23, 2008 7:06 pm Post subject: Re: Global Warming News links
40 Australian scientists sign on to 350 target, call for urgency in the fight against climate change
Quote:
The Earth’s atmosphere and oceans are vulnerable to small changes in greenhouse gas levels, aerosols, extent of the ice sheets and vegetation cover. The climate system can change rapidly over short periods of a few decades, crossing thresholds and points of no return. New studies reported by leading climate scientists indicate the Greenland and west Antarctica ice caps would, if atmospheric CO2-equivalent concentrations reached 450 ppm, very likely melt rapidly, raising sealevel on the scale of metres per century.
Recent developments in the state of the Earth’s climate include increasing extent of spring melt of Arctic Sea ice, mid-winter breakup of the Wilkins ice shelf in West Antarctica, and large methane leaks offshore of eastern Siberia, compel us to call for urgent measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. With the demise of Arctic Sea summer ice likely within the next decade, the global climate system is rapidly changing. CO2 emissions, currently rising at more than 2% per year, should be decreasing at a similar rate if further adverse effects are to be avoided.
350.org _________________ Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.
You cannot post new topics in this forum You cannot reply to topics in this forum You cannot edit your posts in this forum You cannot delete your posts in this forum You cannot vote in polls in this forum
News
Discussions
Resources
Members
Forum FAQ
Search
Usergroups
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
