What will you cut back on to compensate for higher energy prices?
Travel
29%
[ 95 ]
Eating out/Entertainment
27%
[ 89 ]
Groceries
0%
[ 2 ]
Purchases of capital goods
10%
[ 33 ]
Tech Toys: Cell phones, cable TV, etc.
23%
[ 77 ]
Investments
3%
[ 10 ]
Recreation
5%
[ 18 ]
Total Votes : 324
Author
Message
Ebyss Intermediate Crude
Joined: Mar 20, 2005 Posts: 907 Location: Ireland
Posted: Tue Mar 29, 2005 7:55 am Post subject:
Near term...
Well, I think the rising prices in oil will cause alot of drivers to say "F*** that, I'm not paying a fiver a litre" and they'll jump on the bus/train to get to work. So public transport use will increase dramatically. People will also get walking and get their bikes back out.
Recently, bin charges were introduced into our area. We previously had our waste taken away and dumped in a landfill miles and miles away for free. Then bin charges were introduced. Expensive charges; it costs €360 approx. per year per house. People were outraged initially. They protested and wouldn't pay, they got letters summoning them to court, so they paid up pretty quickly. The government also introduced recycling bins, you were not charged for this service, but people didn't really bother. The incentive of a cleaner planet didn't really inspire them. Then, the Council introduced pay-by-weight charges, and that's when it got interesting. Everybody recycles as much as they can now. Anything that can't go in the recycle bin, gets taken to the local recycling centre. People all of a sudden realised that they don't have to pay for the weight if they recycle! It gets better, people are looking for every possible way to reduce the weight of their bins to avoid paying the charges. Everyone wants a compost bin, and the government has even been good enough to subsidise the purchase of compost bins.
The point of that story was to emphasise that until people feel the pinch in their pockets, they're not going to do anything. They don't care about PO, or the environment, or global warming or war, they care about their MONEY. It's as simple as that. Convince people that they will save money by doing XYZ, or that they'll get more for their buck if they do XYZ and they'll go for it. Don't tell them though, let them figure it out by providing all available data, and let them think they're cheating the system. People love thinking they're smarter than the big guys. If food becomes expensive and the government says "You can only have X amount of food per family", the first thing people will do is say "Screw you" and grow their own food, all the while thinking "Only have so much food, yeah?.. wait'll I show you... wait'll you see the amount of tomatoes I get this year". Gardening will become the new tax evasion.
I think public transport use will go up. The government may introduce a grant scheme for green energy for individual houses, and people will think they're getting a bargain (everybody loves a bargain right?). I think locally grown and produced food will become more attractive as it becomes more and more expensive to import foods due to incresing oil prices. I think people will turn to cheaper fuels very quickly to heat their homes, coal, wood etc. People will look to save whereever they can, my friends have a payphone in their house because the phonebill got too big. They got a coin-op electricity meter, so that when they want to use something, they have to pay for it right then and there; they end up using less electricity of course. _________________ We've tried nothin' and we're all out of ideas.
I am only one. I can only do what one can do. But what one can do, I will do. -- John Seymour.
Joined: Apr 03, 2004 Posts: 6580 Location: My Grandkids' Farm
Posted: Tue Mar 29, 2005 8:21 am Post subject:
Macro political / technological events are, IMO, so difficult to predict reliably as to be essentially worthless for more than idle conversation. But if the question is “How will I cope with the obvious effects of rising energy costs” as opposed to “How will the world collapse”…
I expect constriction of business spending and rising commodity prices. So here are 2 things I’m doing to cope with these possibilities – diversifying my income / reducing my overhead and converting most of the equity in my vehicles.
I’m a graphic designer and have reduced my overhead dramatically by selling out in CA and moving to the Midwest. I’ve been self-employed for a number of years but for six months, I’ve been 1,500 miles from my clients. I’ve had mixed results – losing mostly the older folks who don’t really understand e-mail, etc. But I hope to diversify my income sources as well to include some food items, part time handyman and furniture repair. In an economic contraction, that fancy brochure will be one of the things trimmed from many company’s budgets.
Of course Americans only spend something like 9% of their income on food, but as opposed to many folks who believe the government will make sure farmers have cheap fuel, I believe that the cost of food will simply rise as the input costs rise. So as a larger and larger fraction of peoples’ income goes to buy food, hopefully I can escape some of that inflation by growing some of my own food.
Secondly, and here I’m not doing so well, I am attempting to sell a 2wd explorer and will sell the newer 4wd pickup next. I wasn’t quite expecting the speed of the current run up in gas prices and although the explorer gets a “relatively” good 19-20 mpg it still isn’t moving and I suppose selling “remotely” in CA probably doesn’t help. The money from the Explorer is earmarked for more feeder calves.
The newer truck is in good shape and with the amount of miles we drive would last for a long while if we could afford fuel – but the equity could be better used elsewhere. An older small car or pickup will replace this vehicle for any longer trips we might make and the balance will go towards making the old house more energy efficient and other improvements to our personal “infrastructure”.
I also own a 35-year-old 4wd pickup that gets crappy mileage - but a larger pickup is almost a necessity with a small farm. It’s simple to work on, parts are cheap and it doesn’t have much value anyway so it can set if need be. Besides the bed has so many holes it will make a great planter! _________________ Make a plan and work it:
As a discussion point...if you are saying high energy prices will happen, so much so that they hurt `ordinary` folks, then how will the new/alternative goods and services be made? What energy will people use to make these new goods/items etc?
What industry is going to emerge to make all these new goods using what source of energy?
Surely if energy is X times as expensive making a wind turbine/bicycle for ten/recyclable range of hats will be Wind turbine/bicycle10/recyc-hat x $X...
Good point AdzP. I suspect the answer to your question is "man power". It's what we made the gun with, the bicycle with, the car with, the boat with, the first windmill with... I imagine it's what we'll fall back to if needs be. Yes, it means mass production can't be sustained. That's why I always say, it'll go back to localised communities. You'll have a boat builder in your local seaside community, a bicycle maker etc etc. Where will we get the metals and materials from? Well.. Pops old car that he can't sell might make good scrap metal for bikes. There are ways around most of these things, but not all of them. We're just going to have to let some things go. _________________ We've tried nothin' and we're all out of ideas.
I am only one. I can only do what one can do. But what one can do, I will do. -- John Seymour.
speaking of vehicles, i would want to get a pre-electonic fuel injection era vehicle (i.e. one with an actual carburettor) so that i can learn to do my own engine maintenance. modern cars require all this fancy equipment to work on, not like 30-40 years ago when everyone fixed their own cars. it would need to be smallish so it still got good mileage per gallon.
It's always difficult to find spare parts for old cars. I wouldn't recommend it at all. If you want simplicity in your everyday vehicle, I would suggest a cheap motorbike is much better.
i agree that there will be a big knock-on effect of unemployment in the service sector.
when things start to get really tight, less wealthy people will cut down on paid-for leisure activities and either stay at home more or go out and do things that don't cost money.
tourist travel, hotels, restaurants, amusement parks, ski resorts, golf clubs, gyms, pro sports, expensive concerts and stage shows...they'll all take a dive, i reckon.
i think it will take a long time before mass-produced fake processed food becomes more expensive than real fresh food grown locally and not sold in a packet or as an instant meal.
i think you would need $300/bbl to make small-scale organics price competitive with the poison pushers.
They don't care about PO, or the environment, or global warming or war, they care about their MONEY. It's as simple as that. Convince people that they will save money by doing XYZ, or that they'll get more for their buck if they do XYZ and they'll go for it. Don't tell them though, let them figure it out by providing all available data, and let them think they're cheating the system. People love thinking they're smarter than the big guys.
Yes. And I find the solutions they give to the these incentives can be brilliant. One thing I'd expect, is rather than (directly) subsidized public transit, we may see more private mass transit. Already, in the US, trains and "formal" intercity bus operations are on the ropes, but Mexican-style (or Chinatown) bus lines with frequently changing schedules and prices are filling in. If the regulation wasn't so tight, one might find everything from jitneys to pedicab-rickshaws in the cities. Give an entrepreneur an incentive to do what is socially beneficial.
Last edited by lawnchair on Tue Mar 29, 2005 9:50 am; edited 1 time in total
Personal transportation will be the first economic sector to be transformed because it is where most of the oil is comsumed. Already, the SUV market is feeling the heat. Unfortunately, developing low mileage motors was never a priority for American automakers so get ready to see more japanese and europeans cars on the road. I also expect a mega drilling frenzy like in the 70s-80s following the first oil shock. Higher oil prices will create a short term rush of capital toward oil companies and will help financing any low EROI oil extraction ANWAR type of project. One immediate consequence, is that we will sacrifice environment protection laws in order to exploit any potential oil field.
Americans, with an average of 20b/y/capita, will have to go through a major energy scale down. They lived in an energy bubble for decades and it is bursting right now. In particular, their transport infrastructure is not ready and is mainly focused on cars and railways is underdeveloped compare to Europe. I'm more optimistic for europeans, they travel less, use less energy per capita and they have a more developed mass transportation.
As for unemployement, the fact that energy is getting more expensive can bring back old fashion manual work and make job outsourcing less profitable for big corporations.
It is so difficult to predict a world with less oil, especially for people like myself born from the oil bubble of the 70s. I just have some memories of my grandfather, a french farmer, using his horses to cultivate his land and his vignoble. I wish I could have learned some skills form him. Now this knowledge is long gone in most of the western world and people live in a tech world artificially cut from reality. I'm a good example, I know a dozen of computer languages but I don't even know how to grow my own food!
Joined: Dec 08, 2004 Posts: 1584 Location: Nez Perce Nation
Posted: Tue Mar 29, 2005 9:39 am Post subject:
tokyo_to_motueka wrote:
i think you would need $300/bbl to make small-scale organics price competitive with the poison pushers.
Perhaps in Japan. Here in Eastern Washington there is a chain that sells organic produce and meats. There only slightly more expensive than what one would find at a conventional market.
An odd side story about this. The broccoli I currently buy there has a distinctive taste of horse manure. (Yes, I wash it thoroughly) Not that I've tasted the later but the broccoli has a subtle taste that is reminiscent of the smell of the horse droppings.
Mmm Mmm Good! _________________ "Modern Agriculture is the use of land to convert petroleum into food."
-- Albert Bartlett
"It will be a dark time. But for those who survive, I suspect it will be rather exciting."
-- James Lovelock
Posted: Tue Mar 29, 2005 9:50 am Post subject: back to the original question....
I think right now due to preparations we are actually kind of on a buying spree of water tanks, plants, garden materials, conservation items, etc. We also want to buy the things that we will eventually want now before prices increase due to increase oil prices. But other than that, we spend way less than we make because we are putting all of our extra money into paying off our mortgage early. But when things get tight -
Ways to cut down/ first things to go...
- Cable TV
- Cell phone
- Eating out at restaurants
- CD's, books, movies
- Bar tabs
- Dry cleaning
- Long-distance travel
- Paying other people to cut your lawn, clean your house/pool, babysit your kids, etc (this doesn't apply to me but it would to many middle class people)
- Buying new of anything (electronics, furniture, clothes, etc)
- Clever ways to make do with what I already have instead of buying a new gadget to fix the problem
- Expensive presents for others (switch to giving services instead)
Energy conservation measures
- Stop using dryer (this is in progress already)
- Decrease discretionary car trips
- Plant vines and trees to decrease need for A/C (in progress)
- Stop using hair dryer
- Get super efficient wood or pellet burner
More extreme measures
- Growing own food, herbs, fruit, eggs (planning/experimenting stage)
- Getting rid of one car (although it's paid off, this gets rid of car insurance, gas, oil changes, maintenance and parts for one of our two cars)
- Stop using dishwasher
Joined: Apr 03, 2004 Posts: 6580 Location: My Grandkids' Farm
Posted: Tue Mar 29, 2005 10:33 am Post subject:
Not to derail this thread too much Dolly, but I can get virtually any part for that old truck – any part to make it run that is, at any little parts store and much cheaper than a modern version. A tail light lens would be a different thing, but 30 years ago a majority of basic parts were interchangeable between popular models over many years - and there weren’t that many parts to worry about either. In fact a mechanically identical model for ‘parts’ could be had for a few hundred bucks if one had the space to keep it.
Although I am defending my old truck because I like it, the point is, reducing one’s dependence on cash income to purchase “things”. And if personal transport is to become more of a luxury than a necessity, then the portion of ones assets dedicated to that area should be reduced as well and an older vehicle – especially one that gets better mileage than that old truck, seems a smart thing to do – IMO at least. _________________ Make a plan and work it:
Posted: Tue Mar 29, 2005 10:46 am Post subject: what fuel will be available
Another aspect to keep in mind is what type of fuel options would you like.
If you have a fuel injected car you will need either gasoline or you will have to find 200 proof ethyl acholol. Cant run 180. You can make 200 pretty easily, But it is another step, more energy and then you have to have the material to remove the last bit of water to make it 200 proof. You still would need to mix it with gas according to current regs I believe.
If you have a carburator then you can run either. Only thing you would need to do to run 180 straight out of the still is probably change or modify your intake take. You would need larger air jets to add more air. The 180 doesn't burn as hot as gas.
Posted: Tue Mar 29, 2005 10:47 am Post subject: Re: The Near Term Economic Effects of Peak Oil
MonteQuest wrote:
PS We will soon have a Peak Oil Economics Forum.
Excellent! I feel this is much needed. I would be great to attract at least two posters that have strong but divergent economic backgrounds to set forth potential scenarios.
I think in the intermediate term (3-5 years) there will be significant economic changes that evolve worldwide.
I feel that it is important to have an understanding of how to cope with a near term economic downturn to be better positioned further out in time. I think the discussion needs to go deeper than… pay down your mortgage debt, cut back on spending and conserve energy. This to me is simple common sense.
It is understood that predicting macroeconomics on an extended time line is virtually impossible. However, if one understands the overall driving mechanisms, one can do their own due diligence to best position themselves to soften a ‘landing’. _________________ If ...'If's' and 'But's' ... were Candy and Nuts ... we would all be happy and fat !
They don't care about PO, or the environment, or global warming or war, they care about their MONEY. It's as simple as that. Convince people that they will save money by doing XYZ, or that they'll get more for their buck if they do XYZ and they'll go for it. Don't tell them though, let them figure it out by providing all available data, and let them think they're cheating the system. People love thinking they're smarter than the big guys.
Yes. And I find the solutions they give to the these incentives can be brilliant. One thing I'd expect, is rather than (directly) subsidized public transit, we may see more private mass transit. Already, in the US, trains and "formal" intercity bus operations are on the ropes, but Mexican-style (or Chinatown) bus lines with frequently changing schedules and prices are filling in. If the regulation wasn't so tight, one might find everything from jitneys to pedicab-rickshaws in the cities. Give an entrepreneur an incentive to do what is socially beneficial.
Just to clear something up here, as people go on about "public transport" without really knowing the definition. The popular definition is subsidised bus and train services. This is incorrect.
Public transport can be defined as "Transportation services for use by the public". IE basically anything you don't operate yourself, the operation being done by professional operators. This includes taxis, planes, trains, rickshaws, buses, ferries, ships and so on.
In the context of peak oil, therefore not all public transport is equal. It depends of its fuel efficiency, dependency on oil, whether the mode of transport and the flow is ‘socially necessary’.
For example, some internal plane flights in the US may be considered "socially necessary", whereas flights to tourist destinations are not. The latter flights merely take money out of the host country and fly it into other areas. Effectively you would be subsidising foreign countries. Internal US flights are already being subsidised by the government.
As planes are the least fuel efficient form of transport and require large amounts of fuel because of the distances flown, this will be the first form of transport to suffer from high oil prices. Where market saturation is high and low cost flights operate expect certain flags to fall. Low cost flight use yield management so are better able to absorb costs compared to traditional carriers. Longer term "low cost" airlines will concentrate on key markets where they have a virtually monopoly, where other carriers, trains and private cars can’t do the job as well.
The next area is taxis. In terms of fuel efficiency because they spend so much time doing ‘double leg’ journeys and sitting about waiting for customers, they are particularly venerable. Moreover, as a form of transport they are already in the league of the most expensive per mile. Expect to see more rickshaws in some cities. Technically speaking taxis are for ‘private hire’ therefore they would not receive direct subsidy, although in the wider sense they are for ‘use by the public’.
But public transport is an interesting one. The bus services are quite venerable in this respect as many of the loading outside peak and in rural areas are modest or low. If the amount of private car drivers decreases then less road tax is being paid in many countries, so the maintenance of road infrastructure becomes an issue. In Britain the department of transport already takes into account before funding a public transport scheme the amount of road car tax ‘lost’. So some less efficient bus services may be removed, longer term buses may be asked to pay a considerable amount more for road upkeep, which would make many of them unprofitable. They already run about now virtually tax free in many countries.
Not all public transport routes make a loss. Main line and commuter railways, main air and bus routes usually make money, it has always been the fringes that loose money, especially in the bus and train industries since the rise of the private car. However, if people switch, it makes the whole thing must more viable and socially necessary services may be subsidised more (although fewer would need to be in theory) and less well patronised services in all transport sectors taken off if they are not required.
People will drive less and are likely to go for more fuel efficient models. All my last cars were chosen with fuel efficiency in mind as fuel prices are already high in Europe.
Other short term effect will be small rises in the price of some goods, medium term I can see another housing crash and personal debt being a very much bigger area. All these reasons are why I've sold off the car and paid off any debts.
You cannot post new topics in this forum You cannot reply to topics in this forum You cannot edit your posts in this forum You cannot delete your posts in this forum You cannot vote in polls in this forum
News
Discussions
Resources
Members
Forum FAQ
Search
Usergroups
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
Not that I've tasted the later but the broccoli has a subtle taste that is reminiscent of the smell of the horse droppings.
