I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Joined: May 20, 2004 Posts: 235 Location: Sonoma County, Northern California
Posted: Thu Jul 15, 2004 8:49 am Post subject: Matt Savinar as scapegoat.
Matt's website is obviously based on his opinions after reading and studying many, many books and websites on petroleum issues and environmental and economic implications of the coming peak oil days.
Although a few posters point it out, with the Argentina and Ethiopia as excellent examples, economic disruption and the inability to finance massive new alternative programs can be deadly.
And don't forget that the Hummers and big SUV's are the high profit models for automakers - especially the U.S. ones. They may not be able to make it if the only demand is for small cars with a small profit per unit.
Without profit and growth, the U.S. stock market falls, and the economy it represents ultimately depends on the oil that "drives" our entire economy. People in this country will often sell a company's stock at a loss if it didn't BEAT the target for a given quarter. Failing to grow and meet targets is inevitable as peak oil drives up the prices of nearly everything.
Sacrifice has not been part of the American way of life since WWII, and we were both oil-independent and highly motivated then. Plus it was a couple of generations ago, and expectations have changed. When enough people begin to believe that peak oil and serious problems are inevitable, the world will change quickly and unpredictably.
Many people are attacking, and will continue to attack the bringers of bad news - is a role that Savinar, Heinberg and others who study, organize and publish information of the work of the technical and economic experts, are taking - without thoroughly investigating the messenger's published sources. We will also desperately seek out alternatives that may never develop in time to save the situation, grasping at every straw. I hope that some of these alternatives will soften the blow, but it's going to get nasty. I've seen this coming since the late 1960's, although it's taking longer than I expected. "The Limits to Growth" authors had good insight as well, and were also off by 30 years or so, but inevitably, growth in a finite system hits the wall. I want to read the updated version of that book.- "Beyond the Limits: Confronting Global Collapse, Envisioning a Sustainable Future." A review of the book is here:
Joined: May 20, 2004 Posts: 235 Location: Sonoma County, Northern California
Posted: Thu Jul 15, 2004 8:55 am Post subject: Clarification or my fuzzy writing -
Many people are attacking, and will continue to attack the bringers of bad news - is a role that Savinar, Heinberg and others who study, organize and publish information of the work of the technical and economic experts, are taking. The attackers usually do so without thoroughly investigating the messenger's published sources.
Sheesh - gotta start using shorter sentences. Perhaps my English teacher was right!
Joined: Apr 03, 2004 Posts: 6976 Location: My Grandkids' Farm
Posted: Thu Jul 15, 2004 9:57 am Post subject:
I thought that was a good sentence, Dave.
IIRC, the reason the Population Bomb didn’t go off as expected was the development of grain better able to use petroleum based fertilizers. _________________ Make a plan and work it:
Joined: May 26, 2004 Posts: 309 Location: Ontario, Canada
Posted: Thu Jul 15, 2004 10:34 am Post subject:
Yamaha, try reading some of the numbers for your suggestions and thinking about what would really have to happen for the world to make your options happen.
For example, for solar to work, the equivalent of several US states would have to be completely filled with solar cells. And someone would have to be able to keep these cells clean and maintained, all using a minimum of oil.
A Toyota Prius may help rich people turn it around, but do you think China and India can suddenly just start snatching up Priuses easily? Is there a Prius for my bulldozer? For grain threshers? For cargo ships? For airplanes?
Can you really get most of your food from the strawberry stand down the street? How much oil-shipped things do they need to keep their business afloat? What about people living downtown who don't have access to these kinds of things? And if there is a long-term problem, can that place support your whole town?
If the decline is slow, fine, we'll have more time to switch to alternatives. But read a bit about the alternatives. It takes insane levels of work for them to start making a dent in things. And until we start changing our economy around, most of the shipping, construction, etc. will have to be done under oil power.
Even if Matt's really over-exagerating, isn't it nice of him to worry you enough to catch your attention? Now you know that, at the least, a serious depression (and most very likely a recession) are coming. And when it comes time to vote in new leaders, or support new community plans, you'll have Matt's nightmare scenario in the back of your head, giving you the resolve to accept and fight for a hard solution in lieu of doing nothing. _________________ "Our forces are now closer to the center of Baghdad than most American commuters are to their downtown office."
--Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, April 2003
http://peakoil.com/article742.html _________________ "When you understand why you dismiss all the other possible gods, you will understand why I dismiss yours." - Stephen F Roberts.
You know... after reading my own post... I realised what the critical issue is here. Its all about how fast the gas goes up in price. If it only doubles or triples, we will be able to adapt. If it goes up by a factor of 10, then we are screwed and will go back to the stone ages.
Matt S. ASS-U-ME S that gas prices will go up so fast that the market wont have time to correct itself and we wont have the time to make alternative energy sources before the downfall of our society.
You know, there are good reasons to expect a VERY rapid oil price rise ahead.
The one thing most everyone here agrees upon is that the peaking of oil would begin a broad recession.
If this were to happen, we would expect large decreases in demand for oil.
This means lower revenues for oil exporting countries, and really hurts countries whose main source of revenue is oil (i.e., Middle East).
As per capita revenue declines for Middle Eastern countries, how stable do you think their societies will be? Would you be confident about the next oil shipment arriving from Saudi Arabia when Saudi's are having trouble finding enough food to eat?
Problem: Middle East provides 41% of the world oil exports, and this number is only expected to increase.
Effect: The peak oil recession massively increases the risk of civil disorder in countries that export LARGE amounts of oil.
Risk: Massive disruption of supply of oil to Western countries
Possible Consequence: Oil price rises to $20 a gallon. At this price, only the very rich can afford to buy much, but all the oil that is imported is sold.
Yamaha_R6 wrote:
One more thing. I know i am right about the prices of gas gradually going up. There is a limit to how much gas can cost.
If gas were to go up to 20 dollars a gallon today, nobody could afford to buy it. Once the gas in our cars ran out, we would call our bosses and say sorry I am taking the day off, it costs more to drive to work then I make at work.
and what if $20 was the market clearing price? now who's making the assumptions???
I understand the frustration you feel. I think nearly everyone who is a regular on this site feels overwhelmed thinking about peak oil and it's consequences sometimes. I know it is easy to believe that peak oil isn't going to be that big a problem when you find a thread of hope (see the algae thread for one of my moments of hope ).
No matter what anyone says, it's never hopeless. Anything is possible. But I think that dismissing the whole 'peak oil consequences' stuff as wrong because it is based on a premiss that you don't immediately see the justification for is a little shallow.
It occurs to me that the entire peak argument centers around a rapid rise in energy costs.
Most everyone agrees that at some point, oil & gas get less available, and more expensive. The disagreement is when & how quickly right...
So if we can demonstrate a case for the gentle slope idea, peak oil becomes an interesting blip on the map of global economics. (No big deal).
The contention is that a combination of compounded losses in supply each year plus continued demand growth for energy = a quite rapid transition.
The math is deceptive I think, because small percentage changes in energy price translate into a much larger share of overall inflation.
In addition, we mistakenly consider increments of 1 or 2% as small. But when applied in a multi trillion dollar world economy, that single percent is a very large number.
In this vein, I wondered what an economic pyramid, similar to Simmons "energy pyramid" would reveal? Since the wealth gap in our world is greater than ever before, small percentage changes affect the bottom of the pyramid much more than the well insulated top.
So I think we either argue for a comparatively rapid onset of post-peak conditions, or we hang up our peak spurs. _________________ "When you understand why you dismiss all the other possible gods, you will understand why I dismiss yours." - Stephen F Roberts.
Posted: Thu Jul 15, 2004 3:22 pm Post subject: MattSavinar
When I was in college, I had a girlfriend I was absolutely in love with.
One day, my friend informed me she had been cheating on me and lying to me. That our relationship was about to end. That if I was smart, I would wake up and realize it.
At first I was pretty shocked. But then after a few days I calmed down and thought, "Hey, what's this guy's agenda?! You know what - he is probably exagerrating! He might even be lying!!!! She may not be perfect, and maybe our relationship is going to go through a rough patch or two but no way is it coming to a complete end!"
So I called him up told him to F--- Off and that he had better have pictures to prove it. I ran into him a few days later and even challenged him to a fight. But he was too busy to deal with my immature, fear-based, shenanigans.
A few months later, I found out he had been speaking the truth.
You know... after reading my own post... I realised what the critical issue is here. Its all about how fast the gas goes up in price. If it only doubles or triples, we will be able to adapt. If it goes up by a factor of 10, then we are screwed and will go back to the stone ages.
Matt S. ASS-U-ME S that gas prices will go up so fast that the market wont have time to correct itself and we wont have the time to make alternative energy sources before the downfall of our society.
THAT is a HUGE assumption. That event HAS to happen in order for everything else to come true. He provides proof and evidence for everything that he tells us EXCEPT that. AND that is the most important part. It makes simple sense that gas will go up and up, maybe at an exponential rate. But this die off and downfall of society would require gas to absolutly sky rocket to at least 8 TIMES the current level and then to hold that price and continue to go up from there.
THERE is no evidence anywhere that this is even possible. The whole piece of doo doo is based on this one idea that is almost sure to be BS.
If you look up you can read why gas prices cant just go up that much.
If there is a 10% increase in demand, and 10% shortage in supply, we need to conserve 20%. 20% is nothing when you think about it. Back in the 70's when there were shortages, people did not have the ability to conserve like they do today. And if you REMEMBER, people did conserve a lot. All the cars were smaller and had less power. The GEO METRO type cars were born. Imagine a geo metro hybrid. The current economy cars are almost sporty. toyota corrollas and what not making way over 100HP... What the heck, thats not an economy car, is it? The world wont function if even the cheapest most economical cars dont have at least 100HP????
The oil market is A LOT more elastic then this guy would have us believe. And the whole thing about gas being to expensive to buy just doesnt make sense at all.
I want a response MATT on how you can tell us all this stuff is going to happen when you have no resonable evidence that a shortage of gas would make the cost go up to the levels you are proposing that would end civilization.
I am made at you for making me believe all the BS. I am mad that you got me worried about my life being in danger when the only thing happening is a reccession. Having a really bad economy and not having food are two tottaly different things.
Leave it to gosh darn it lawers to make the most convincing arguments that suckers like me will believe. OJ simpsons lawer was so good at his work he was able to do the same thing to a jury. THEN you make a damn book! you could have just posted the book for download on your site, but no... damn lawers gotta make there money doing what they are good at, arguing a point well enough that no matter what it is we all nood and saw yes.
I have an idea, GO GET A REAL JOB, go defend some poor lady that was hurt by some punks. Put some Westerfields and OJs behind bars. Just dont make stupid BS cause you can.
I am fighting mad... GEEZ I AM ANGERY. ALL THIS doo doo BASED OFF ONE STUPID ASSUMPTION! GO TO HELL!
Wow. Anybody want to extraplotae Yamaha's cyber behavior to the real world?
This is exactly how the masses are going to react as they realize the true implications of what is happening. It is exactly why I keep a baseball bat next to my bed at night and why I keep the doors locked and take other security precautions.
I did post 1/4 of the book for free. Also gave away 1200 copies free to military, media, and legislators.
This has become a full time job. If I didn't charge money for the book, there would be no book.
I have given away more for free than probalby any author currently published. That is saying alot when you consider I financed this whole endeavor on a credit card, while living at home, eating beans, and not driving a car.
Yamaha, try reading some of the numbers for your suggestions and thinking about what would really have to happen for the world to make your options happen.
For example, for solar to work, the equivalent of several US states would have to be completely filled with solar cells. And someone would have to be able to keep these cells clean and maintained, all using a minimum of oil.
A Toyota Prius may help rich people turn it around, but do you think China and India can suddenly just start snatching up Priuses easily? Is there a Prius for my bulldozer? For grain threshers? For cargo ships? For airplanes?
Can you really get most of your food from the strawberry stand down the street? How much oil-shipped things do they need to keep their business afloat? What about people living downtown who don't have access to these kinds of things? And if there is a long-term problem, can that place support your whole town?
If the decline is slow, fine, we'll have more time to switch to alternatives. But read a bit about the alternatives. It takes insane levels of work for them to start making a dent in things. And until we start changing our economy around, most of the shipping, construction, etc. will have to be done under oil power.
Even if Matt's really over-exagerating, isn't it nice of him to worry you enough to catch your attention? Now you know that, at the least, a serious depression (and most very likely a recession) are coming. And when it comes time to vote in new leaders, or support new community plans, you'll have Matt's nightmare scenario in the back of your head, giving you the resolve to accept and fight for a hard solution in lieu of doing nothing.
What is really shocking for people like Yamaha is when they either hear me speak or they have a chance to see the lifestyle I have voluntarily chosen to live. No car. No furniture. No refrigarator or AC. No electricity except what it takes to power the laptop. Have begun growing food in the small garden attached to my apartment.
Then they get really, really, angry.
Because they can see I mean what I say and I take this situation as the life and death situation I portray it as on the site and in the book.
People often ask me if I get death threats from the oil companies. I've never gotten death threats from people in the oil and gas industry. In fact, the most positive reviews of my work come from geologists and oil industry folks! Check the letters section of my site for a few examples. (I've got 3-4 more I'm going to post when I get a chance)
About four months ago, a former geologist for the USGS wrote me to say that unfortunately, I was pretty much on the money, although maybe a bit too "pessimistic.
A month ago, she wrote me again to say that due to recent developments, she has come to believe the more dire conclusions I write about are likely understatements. In other words, the situation is even worse than I make it out to be.
Just yesterday, I had the CEO of a major Texas oil company email to ask about ordering 50 copies of the book. I'm not going to say the guy's name or company until asking him if I can publish or post the information. So you'll just have to take my word for it for now. He said he wants to give the book to everybody he cares about and even invited me to Texas to talk about the situation over a steak.
The same day, I got 2 pieces of hate mail. One was from somebody who is a big fan of biodiesel. Said I'm all wrong, I'm a "nutcase" and that BD could easily replace oil. Made various deragotory comments about my professional and educational background.
The other was from a 19 year old who read my site, got really scared but then decided I was just lying to sell books. Said he drove by a large wind farm and that obviously I'm underplaying the ability of wind to replace oil.
This type of thing happens regularly. Praise from oil and gas insiders. Hate from everybody else.
When I sit and contemplate the path that we are taking, it is discrepencies like these that lead me to believe the situation is even more hopeless then I had ever thought.
Life after the oil crash was the first peak oil site I found.
I was immediately suspicious of the concept because
1. It's on the Internet.
2. Matt is selling a book.
I think we can all relate to that.
So I did what I always do... I goggled it.
This thread seems to put a lot of the burden on Matt's shoulders. And although Matt writes well, and makes some interesting analogies and useful metaphors, I don't know him or his qualifications.
Not being an energy or geology expert myself, I wanted the opinions of the experts, so to speak. And I'll hazard a guess that this is exactly what Matt has done as well.
So how much weight go I give Matt's arguments? Without some indication of specific expertise, I can't just accept his ideas, I must have corroboration. Now Matt may not be a geologist, or physicist, but some others are...
I may take it with a grain of salt when Matt makes a claim, but when I hear similar predictions from respected scientists & researchers from the energy field... I pay attention.
Matt may be selling a book, and you have a point that he is motivated to sell it. But that does not mean it's wrong.
So you may brush past some of Matt's arguments, but I wouldn't be so quick to throw out the "baby with the bathwater".
While I agree that the proof is in the pudding, and as Jay points out peak is only visible in retrospect, & I might dismiss this whole argument were Matt the only advocate. But when respected professionals from multiple fields echo some of these arguments, people with everything to lose by being wrong, I pay attention.
When a 35 year Oil & Gas industry heavyweight says we should worry... I listen. When professors from Princeton get nervous... I get nervous. When multiple geologists with lengthy careers in traditional fields are concerned... so am I. If you have won the Nobel prize in chemistry... you have my complete attention.
So do I buy Matt's worst case predictions... not all of them. But do I think that means a "soft landing"? Not really...
One thing to consider is that to the extent you think Matt is overstating the problem to sell books, more conservative authors may tend to understate the problem.
Dr. Smalley demonstrated as much when I asked him what he thought the consequences for failing to meet our future energy needs in any significant degree would be. He replied that it would be "a challenging few decades". I then asked if that was his "politically correct" way of referring to starvation, economic collapse in many places, epidemic disease patterns, regional conflict, and even a nuclear exchange? His reply was, "
Yes... all of those".
Now you may doubt Matt's conclusions, and question his qualifications to make such judgments. And I suspect Matt would encourage your doubt and urge you to do the research yourself. But when a respected director for a leading carbon nanotechnology lab, winner of the Nobel prize in chemistry, and the pioneer of nano-physics and discoverer of Bucky Balls, agrees with multiple geologists and energy industry experts that declining oil & gas may devastate world economies in the near future... you get the idea.
We tend to think in terms defined in context with our personal lives. So when we consider energy use, we think of our own intersection with it. How we each use this energy. We can drive more efficient, bio-algae cars and use solar panels all we like, but the underpinnings of our modern global economy rests firmly on the shoulders of oil & gas energy and manufacturing technologies. Our prosperity today is based on our major industries and cheap power to feed it.
So while we may be using "armchair" diagnostics to make uneducated guesses in here... I don't think that's how Simmons or Smalley or Deffreys, or Campbell et al do it.
Our current world culture employs a cheap terawatt energy solution. This has fueled the rocket-ride of prosperity we have enjoyed this century... Being forced to replace this cheap solution with an expensive one is the "cliff" they speak of...
Return to the stone age? Probably not...
Economic collapse, starvation, regional resource wars... I hope not...
Runaway inflation, global recession, political and social instability... a certainty if our energy budget is seriously compromised.
I find I agree with Smalley... we are looking at a challenging few decades.
What is really funny is that I am not making claims. I aks questions and then I find experts who have answered those questions. I cite those experts. I provide people with the links and the citations (195 in the first edition of the book, 250 in the second edition of the book about to go to the printers)
If you are in a jury, you're not listening to the attorney. YOur listenting to the expert witnesses who take the stand.
But, since the experts each take the stand for only a short amount of time, they do not become the "messenger" in people's minds.
BTW, as far as being
1. on the internet
2. selling a book,
the same is true for all the folks at ASPO, Paul Roberts, Dale Allen Pfeiffer, Matt Simmons, Richard Heinberg, etc. . . All are on the internet, all are selling books.
People who find the message too scary too handle find me to be the easiest target because:
1. I'm relativley young
2. I choose to post here.
3. I don't sugarcoat or make the message p.c.
4. I'm an attorney, not a geologist.
Posted: Thu Jul 15, 2004 6:13 pm Post subject: Re: I have been lurking here but this is my first post &
Yamaha_R6 wrote:
I have been following pretty much everything here for about 6 months now. I usually go to Matt Savinars site. www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net
This whole thread started with a lie.
Theres no way you have been reading everything here for 6 months. You wouldnt be so uninformed if you had.
Some of the other new posters here today have obviously been around awhile. Well developed analysis and whatnot.
No, Yamaha, you have just met Major Denial after confronting issues which force you to test your comfort zone. Scary aint it?
Major Denial in and of itself is no sin, but your aggressive "shoot the messenger" ranting is PITIFUL. _________________ "The future power is manpower"
Posted: Thu Jul 15, 2004 6:21 pm Post subject: Re: I have been lurking here but this is my first post &
MadScientist wrote:
Yamaha_R6 wrote:
I have been following pretty much everything here for about 6 months now. I usually go to Matt Savinars site. www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net
This whole thread started with a lie.
Theres no way you have been reading everything here for 6 months. You wouldnt be so uninformed if you had.
Some of the other new posters here today have obviously been around awhile. Well developed analysis and whatnot.
No, Yamaha, you have just met Major Denial after confronting issues which force you to test your comfort zone. Scary aint it?
Major Denial in and of itself is no sin, but your aggressive "shoot the messenger" ranting is PITIFUL.
Speaking of shooting the messenger: Harriet Tubman carried a gun with her at all times. Not so much as to fend off slave catchers as it was to fend off slaves who didn't what to leave the only thing they had known and had grown accostemed to: the plantation.
This was especially true for the professionaly trained "house" slaves who received better quarters, faster horses, and better food than the field slaves. The house slaves were responsible for things like keeping the master's books, conducting business transactions with other plantations, etc. . . Many were trained as accountants, transactional attorneys, in medicine, law, business, etc. .
The entire industrialized world is now a fossil fuel run plantation. The Yamahas and Jays of the world are the house slaves who just learned the system is about to collapse, got terrified and have now decided to shoot the messenger.
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