I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Aaron calls me a Hitler because I frequently call Jack exactly what he is. Jack proposes that people MUST die and he wants to help them die. Jack does not negate that. Therefore people on this board must understand that. But Jack is not completely open about it. But it is true. His belief is that people in other parts of the world must stop using OUR, meaning the resources that the US should have, we must gradb those resources, and the only way to do it is to kill those people. Hence my simple question: What criteria will Jack use to kill these people, how many will he kill, what will he do with the bodies, and what are his operational plans.
A question I have declined to answer, and shall continue to decline to answer. Persistence is a virtue, true – but it can be overdone.
I will give you a few small hints. Call me Mr. Generous.
You kill as many as need to be killed. Bodies are biodegradable through natural processes. And one can always give a group of people shovels, have them dig a trench, and then eliminate them. The next group can then fill in the trench. This adds a whole new dimension to shift work.
trespam wrote:
Now I say it is (a) immoral and (b) futile. But first and foremost, I think Jack should fill us in with his proposal.
Morality? What nonsense. Gentlemen and their ladies prattle about morality while sitting around the fireplace, their bellies overstuffed and their senses sated. Privation severs the Gordian knot, and reduces morality to a single imperative – survival.
Futility is a more interesting question. In essence, it becomes “Is it cost-effective to seize resources.” I contend that it is. You see things otherwise. I shall appeal to tradition – nations have been seizing resources of every sort for millennia. Everyone seems to enjoy the process. At least, the winners do. The losers tend to be removed from the gene pool and don’t write histories.
trespam wrote:
Aaron then goes on with the point that people have died for me, something I am quite well aware of. I'm not sure what that has to do with this particular discussion. But I agree. People have died for me. But it adds nothing.
More pointedly, people have seized resources on your behalf. You enjoy the fruits of those seizures. In future, others will seize more resources on your behalf. You’ll enjoy the results of those actions too. Really, Trespam, I can’t imagine why this would need to be spelled out for you.
trespam wrote:
Finally, Aaron seems to think that because I bring (a) historical information and (b) personal experiences I am some how riding on an attraction at Disneyland. If that's how he sees it fine. I don't. And he doesn't like the tenor or personal nature of my comments. Fine. I come from an environment in which the Chief Scientist of our company will walk into the middle of a large meeting and call me a f*** idiot if he sees fit. This in a room full of people. So I'm used to this approach. Intel is not that different. And given that we are as successful as Intel, it seems to work.
But I am truly sorry if I'm hurting some sensitive feelings. But given that Jack wants to do-in a lot of people, it seems silly that he's unable to deal with the comments.
Hurting feelings? Trespam, if you think you’re “hurting my feelings”, you labor under a misimpression. The problem is that I find your constant need to discuss the mechanics of resource seizure, or even of mass death, to be tedious. Discussing the possibility of arming one faction of a third world nation – perhaps with machetes, as in Rwanda – and encouraging them to prune the population of an opposing faction probably doesn’t help the reputation of this board. I question whether speculation about the effectiveness of releasing smallpox in crowded third world nations, after having inoculated one’s own population, is helpful in advancing the message of Peak Oil. Not that I would ever suggest either of those techniques, you understand.
trespam wrote:
So in conclusion, I really want to know what Jack proposes. His attitude of joy at the idea of people dying should be the affront to people on this board. Not my raising a verbal voice in his direction.
No, what you want is to be titillated, and then to feign moral outrage as you jump up and down while screaming “Hitler Hitler Hitler!!!” Surely, you could vary it a bit, and incorporate an allusion to Stalin, or Himmler, or Goring – or even Colonel Milton Chivington. You do remember colonel Chivington, don’t you? He’s part of our national heritage, famous for the phrase “Nits make lice.” You can read something of his accomplishments at http://www.manataka.org/page161.html
Might I add that you and I both enjoy the fruits of his efforts to seize resources?
trespam wrote:
And seriously, if you guys can't handle this level of debate and "tenor," you're in for a serious awakening when the real dislocations start.
They’re in for an awakening? Oh, that’s delightful. Coming from a fellow who regards a discussion of resource seizure as being an “affront”? Trespam, you’re the sort of fellow who wants to sit in your air-conditioned office, sipping a latte’, listening to an ipod, meanwhile clucking his tongue at all those nasty people who go out and get the resources that fuel your world.
Before the industrial revolution, England had a maximum population of 6 million people. It’s now approaching 60 million. To support such a population, one must either have energy intensive agriculture, or transport resources in from other lands, or both. Otherwise, the population will revert to the norm. The problem is that transporting things in, during a time of general decline, will deprive the distant area of the ability to support their population. There is going to be a massive dieoff. There is nothing you, or I, or anyone else can do to stop it. The only questions are who dies and how do they die.
There are people who speak of “cooperation”. Very well – I support cooperation among the people of the first world to survive. That means that billions of people will die, if only due to starvation and disease. I suggest that you awaken to that reality. _________________ Dieoff. Fun to watch. Better with hot buttered popcorn!
Why does everybody think that we will revert to the pre-industrial past? Knowledge isn't going to disappear if resources do.
Before oil, maybe there weren't fertilisers. Does it mean that there won't be after oil? Well, we will still know the formulas for those fertilisers, so we should be able to obtain them from other sources (for example, vegetable oil).
Considering that food is a basic priority, I think a lot of things have to disappear before people start starving in developed countries.
Taking all this into account, I doubt there will be a massive dieoff of the kind of reducing population to a tenth of what it is now.
And since you brought up Hitler... by common forum etiquette, you lose the argument.
Quote:
Aaron then goes on with the point that people have died for me, something I am quite well aware of. I'm not sure what that has to do with this particular discussion. But I agree. People have died for me. But it adds nothing.
Just what do you think those people who died were doing?
They died seizing the resources you now enjoy.
Quote:
And he doesn't like the tenor or personal nature of my comments.
Like has little to do with it.
Quote:
I am some how riding on an attraction at Disneyland.
Indeed...
Just because your well-padded friends and associates share the burden of bringing donuts to the office and the guy in the next cubicle loaned you a stapler does not make you an authority on human nature.
You seem to feel that your privileged, first world existence is all there is.
Wake Up Peter Pan!
There is an entire world out there doing the "heavy lifting" of life for you and your pampered elites.
The ugly truth of the matter is that humanity is nowhere near the cooperative nirvana you imagine from your ivory tower.
You like eating burgers, but don't want to know where they come from.
Well you raise a crap load of cows... then you murder them... blood everywhere... cows screaming in fear... pain & death.
Welcome to the real world... _________________ "When you understand why you dismiss all the other possible gods, you will understand why I dismiss yours." - Stephen F Roberts.
Joined: May 24, 2004 Posts: 3429 Location: California, USA
Posted: Fri Apr 01, 2005 7:21 am Post subject:
Mididoctors: thanks; re. geopolitical translation, here are a few examples in terms of America's behavior. However the five core behaviors are not limited to nation-states; multinational and subnational groups such as corporations, churches, international agencies, and terrorists, have their own versions.
Presently we're about to start cooperating with India on the development of nuclear power technology. Shared resources; mutual benefit.
One of the outcomes of that cooperation will probably be a standardized inherently-safe reactor design that can be built relatively quickly anywhere it's needed. It so happens China is trying to achieve the same thing, as an export product.
So it's logical to assert that the US and India will be competing vs. China in the global market in reactors. Both the US and China accept that neither of us will try to sabotage the other's R&D efforts, blow up each others' universities and nuclear labs, etc.; we are competing in accord with well-understood rules.
Trading relationships tend to be symbiotic. Pick any trading relationship that is not coerced and you'll usually find a symbiosis. Japan excels in certain areas of technology notably automotive and electronic; we excel in other areas notably software; we trade, both parties benefit.
The above cases are illustrative: the cooperation and the competition are beneficial to the world-at-large; and the symbioses are beneficial to the participants.
As for parasitism, the most glaring US example is policy toward Central and South America, viewing them essentially as sources of minerals and agricultural products and a few other things, to be obtained on terms that are favorable to us regardless of the consequences to the other countries of that region. The left has actually done a decent job of documenting all of that; sift out the rhetoric and the facts stand up.
And as for predation, one could make the case that our actions in Iraq fit the definition, and the world's vigorous disapproval is consistent with normal human reactions to predatory behavior.
None of these behaviors exists in a vacuum; virtue and viciousness can coexist in a country's policies and in an individual person.
---
Boris: Scarcity by itself is not the only factor; the key is the sense of clear and present crisis. Consider the prevalence of altruistic behavior in times of natural disaster, or even in localized emergencies such as house fires. Exceptions such as looting and price gouging, and the extreme disapproval and overt sanctions leveled against same, emphasize the point.
---
Bringitback: Cooperation / competition don't correlate with long-term / short-term. Recall that a key part of my definition of competition was that it occurred within the context of explicit rule-sets.
Now we have the US/India nuclear collaboration which will compete for market share vs. the Chinese nuclear industry; this will necessarily improve the quality and lower the cost of nuclear reactors, so the world benefits. We also have India competing with northern Europe in wind turbines, which will lead to improvements in this field as well.
Wait until hybrid cars start getting really popular and you will see competition for fuel efficiency start to take off.
The US/India nuclear deal is definitely long term thinking, relative to most of what goes on in politics: it will take a good five years at minimum for the research to bear fruit, and another ten years minimum before the new reactors start sprouting across the world.
Predation has the shortest span of planning: the planning basically ends with the death or destruction of the prey. (This also supports the critique of US/Iraq: the lack of planning for the post-maneuver phase of war. Hunt Saddam, kill/disable/neutralize Saddam, take Saddam's oil, game over, or so said the theory.) The predator's longer time horizon is basically a repetition of the same strategy, i.e. hunt, kill, eat, move on.
Parasitism has a longer timespan of planning: the parasite has to be concerned with the host's wellbeing at least to the extent of not killing off or disabling the host, since the parasite depends on the host to produce what the parasite needs.
---
Trespam, the behavior you accuse Jack of is a paradigm case of predation: kill other people and take what they have. Now if Jack, or anyone else around here, is truly a predator, or planning to become one in the event of a collapse, those of us who believe in civilized values will do our best to see to it that he doesn't get away with it.
And in that case, our predator-wannabes will be more than grateful that the "not getting away with it" comes in the form of handcuffs, Miranda rights, a trial by a jury of their peers, and a small concrete room with a toilet, a bunk, and bars at one end.
It appears from Jack's posting of 1 April, that he indeed does promote himself as a predator. Jack, you will be happier to be caught at your evil-doings by civilized people, than by people such as yourself, I guarantee it. We'll see to it that your prison cell is at least as warm as our own houses, somewhere in the range of 58 to 64 degrees Fahrenheit.
By the way, the wink-nudge about releasing smallpox elsewhere after having vaccinated one's own population: that is directly from the history of Stalinist Russia's subterfuge behind the efforts to wipe out smallpox.
BTW, Godwin's Law doesn't apply to mentions of Stalin.
---
The question before us is, shall we allow ourselves to be seduced by the sneering sociopathy that appeals to the lowest brute instincts of the reptilian part of the brain? Or shall we embrace reason and truly utilize the cerebral cortex that has taken us countless millions of years to develop?
How many votes here for evolution? How many for devolution?
Joined: Aug 10, 2004 Posts: 1104 Location: San Diego, CA, USA
Posted: Fri Apr 01, 2005 8:01 am Post subject:
Exactly gg3. Jack is quite sociopathic. Probably the most sociopathic on this board other than the racist ass who apparently finally left. Jack considers himself a realist. Jack's ideas logically translate into many things, including the following: slavery is a good thing--efforts to remove it from the world are wrong. This is a logical outcome of his thinking. Therefore, I think it very fair to use terms like racist or sociopath or even Hitler with respect to Jack. And like any community, my own opinion is that this community should do its best to shun Jack. Or, as I also think many times, look for a means to create a board that is not infected with such low examples of humanity.
Now, some people don't like my characterizations such as the above. Tough. Jack and Aaron think I'm a latte sipping office dweller. Given that today I am retiring early at age 44--at minimum I'm not a office dweller any more. Perhaps I'll buy myself an Island somewhere. And arm it with an appropriate militia for self-defense. Who knows. That's beside the point. What I am arguing and looking for is a path forward. It will include combat and cooperation. Jack's path forward is to outright kill large numbers of people.
What is the point? Overall human history is of course a bloodbath, and a set of examples of outright inhumanity and cooperation. And what is the lesson that Jack brings to it? Let's kill large numbers of people. Really, no different than Hitler.
One lesson of history will be that when the lifeboat gets full, the sociopaths will work very hard to throw people out of the boat, they will succeed for a time, and then the populace will finally cooperate in throwing the sociopaths out of the boat. Why will this happen? Because the sociopaths have no morality, and will stab their "friends" in the back just as they will the poor dark-skinned slum dweller in a city far away. And finally the "friends" around the sociopath will realize this. At that point, a few toys like the automatic weapons that were brandished on this site will prove fruitless for the sociopath.
It appears from Jack's posting of 1 April, that he indeed does promote himself as a predator. Jack, you will be happier to be caught at your evil-doings by civilized people, than by people such as yourself, I guarantee it. We'll see to it that your prison cell is at least as warm as our own houses, somewhere in the range of 58 to 64 degrees Fahrenheit.
By the way, the wink-nudge about releasing smallpox elsewhere after having vaccinated one's own population: that is directly from the history of Stalinist Russia's subterfuge behind the efforts to wipe out smallpox.
BTW, Godwin's Law doesn't apply to mentions of Stalin.
---
The question before us is, shall we allow ourselves to be seduced by the sneering sociopathy that appeals to the lowest brute instincts of the reptilian part of the brain? Or shall we embrace reason and truly utilize the cerebral cortex that has taken us countless millions of years to develop?
How many votes here for evolution? How many for devolution?
It is usually better to be the prisoner of the civilized than of the uncivilized - though "civilized" people can exhibit notable levels of cruelty and sadism. But you must keep in mind that we as a society have no objection to predators, so long as they remain within the rules. Evil-doing is a matter of perspective.
Stalinist Russia had a number of techniques; causing mass starvation in the Ukraine among others. Some things never change, do they?
And you ask about evolution versus devolution. The vote you propose is being conducted today, globally. When privation hits, devolution kicks in with a vengence. And so it will again.
Joined: Aug 10, 2004 Posts: 1104 Location: San Diego, CA, USA
Posted: Fri Apr 01, 2005 8:25 am Post subject:
Jack wrote:
Who knows, gg3, you might want a few evil-doers around to help out with the devolved masses.
Probably not. Better to have armed and trained militias who have at least some measure of morality and humanity. As I said in previous quote, "evil-doers," or the more appropriate phrase sociopaths, will stab their "friends" in the back when push comes to shove.
Jack and Aaron think I'm a latte sipping office dweller. Given that today I am retiring early at age 44--at minimum I'm not a office dweller any more.
Congrats and best luck with your early retirement.
And a special note of thanks goes out to all of the people you have exploited to achieve your position.
Sorry... I mean the poor huddled masses who gave up everything in the spirit of human cooperation, so you could enjoy your retirement.
You do understand that when the circus comes to your town... that means it just left another town don't you?
And that you are a participant in the most successful predation our planet has ever seen?
Predation by proxy is still predation.
So enjoy your prosperity... billions of your fellow travelers have been exploited to create it.
Be a real shame if all of that evil was done upon the hapless victims of the world, for you not to at least enjoy it.
So now it's back to your world where food comes from the grocery store, electricity comes from a wall socket, and gasoline emanates from the pump.
Have a McWonderful day! _________________ "When you understand why you dismiss all the other possible gods, you will understand why I dismiss yours." - Stephen F Roberts.
Exactly gg3. Jack is quite sociopathic. Probably the most sociopathic on this board other than the racist ass who apparently finally left. Jack considers himself a realist. Jack's ideas logically translate into many things, including the following: slavery is a good thing--efforts to remove it from the world are wrong.
Trespam, you need to pace yourself – your store of invective might become depleted. Do you suppose that we’re approaching Peak Vitriol?
Now, as to slavery – it exists widely, even today. For example, in Cote d’Ivoire (Ivory Coast) in the chocolate industry. As it turns out, the chocolate from that locale is quite good, and is used by major chocolate companies around the world. So, if you eat chocolate, there’s a good chance that it has a hint of the tears, sweat, and blood of slaves.
That being said, no one cares. If they did, they would do something – at the least, cease buying and consuming chocolate. They do nothing of the sort. Ergo, their actions prove they do not care about the use of slaves to produce goods for their consumption.
Chocolate is not the only such product. There are reports of Chinese prison labor being used as an integral part of the Chinese economy to produce goods exported to the U.S. So we enjoy the cheap goods produced by forced labor in Chinese prisons.
In fact, so-called sweatshops are a widespread phenomenon throughout the third world. The conditions are not so different than slavery, with the demands of survival negating the theoretical freedom of such workers to seek more lucrative employment.
Since most of us in the first world enjoy chocolate, Chinese goods, and other cheap consumer products produced by such workers, I can only conclude that we embrace the benefits of slave labor. Further, that we do not object to such slavery. Must I conclude that your objection is actually to my lack of a softening patina of hypocrisy and self-deception?
I think I’ll have a chocolate on that. The taste is delightful.
trespam wrote:
This is a logical outcome of his thinking. Therefore, I think it very fair to use terms like racist or sociopath or even Hitler with respect to Jack. And like any community, my own opinion is that this community should do its best to shun Jack. Or, as I also think many times, look for a means to create a board that is not infected with such low examples of humanity.
Such low examples? By that, do you mean people who enjoy the fruits of slave labor? Do have a chocolate. It will make you feel better.
trespam wrote:
Now, some people don't like my characterizations such as the above. Tough. Jack and Aaron think I'm a latte sipping office dweller. Given that today I am retiring early at age 44--at minimum I'm not a office dweller any more. Perhaps I'll buy myself an Island somewhere. And arm it with an appropriate militia for self-defense. Who knows. That's beside the point. What I am arguing and looking for is a path forward. It will include combat and cooperation. Jack's path forward is to outright kill large numbers of people.
An island with a self-defense militia?
Very well. What will you do when the first ill-constructed, sinking boat of desperate refugees comes floating up to your island? Will you welcome them in? How about the next boat load? And the one thereafter? Soon enough, you’ll have a situation that is reminiscent of Easter Island.
Or will you have the self-defense militia cut them down? Will you use automatic weapons? Or are bolt action rifles somehow more humane? Perhaps the militia will cooperate closely as they use their machetes to kill the refugees – that should be sustainable.
If you don’t choose these options, your only remaining choice is to send them out to sea, where they are likely to perish. But, since it will be out of sight, you and the self-defense militia can congratulate yourselves upon your humanitarian instincts.
Once you embrace armed forces – a militia, in this instance – you are planning and preparing for combat. You are preparing to “outright kill large numbers of people”.
Welcome to club sociopath, Trespam!
trespam wrote:
What is the point? Overall human history is of course a bloodbath, and a set of examples of outright inhumanity and cooperation. And what is the lesson that Jack brings to it? Let's kill large numbers of people. Really, no different than Hitler.
Or Supreme Commander Trespam, leading his self-defense militia.
trespam wrote:
One lesson of history will be that when the lifeboat gets full, the sociopaths will work very hard to throw people out of the boat, they will succeed for a time,
Indeed it will. Nicely said.
trespam wrote:
and then the populace will finally cooperate in throwing the sociopaths out of the boat.
And they will be lead by a more clever sociopath who claims compassion while plotting control.
trespam wrote:
Why will this happen? Because the sociopaths have no morality, and will stab their "friends" in the back just as they will the poor dark-skinned slum dweller in a city far away. And finally the "friends" around the sociopath will realize this. At that point, a few toys like the automatic weapons that were brandished on this site will prove fruitless for the sociopath.
It appears you don’t know your sociopaths. What actually happens is that they band together and, along with their friends, take control of the society. They then rewrite history, give money to charity, and become recognized as philanthropists and elder statesmen.
Have another chocolate, Trespam. Taste the rich, full flavor – there’s an earthy touch, perhaps with a hint of something deep and complex. Is it the slave’s labor you taste? Enjoy! _________________ Dieoff. Fun to watch. Better with hot buttered popcorn!
Joined: Mar 04, 2005 Posts: 2736 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Sat Apr 02, 2005 3:18 pm Post subject: What about multilateral cooperation
I suggested this before. The only way to resolve conflict over oil resources is in the United Nations. This issue had better be raised there soon. Can anyone suggest who could raise Peak Oil in the United Nations?
Graeme
Joined: May 24, 2004 Posts: 3429 Location: California, USA
Posted: Sun Apr 03, 2005 4:12 am Post subject:
Yes I do believe we have seen evil incarnate, here at close range.
As for the hypothetical about whether I'd even want such a person in my community after a major collapse: no more than I'd want a child molester.
Evil people try to make themselves seem useful, even indispensable. Many Presidents have even had them on their staffs, e.g. Karl Rove, whose true nature Bush recognizes explicitly by way of the nickname "Turd Blossom." But the fact is that the so-called "necessity" for treating with the Devil and his Minions (look up the etymology of the latter) is nothing more than sheer puffery and snake oil. It is the sales pitch of the evil ones: You need us, they say, to do your inevitable dirty work.
But the answer is, no, we don't need them. We are perfectly capable of building and farming and defending ourselves without selling our souls. Faustian bargains are a scam.
Then the evil ones try to weasel their way in by way of our own human imperfections. Look, they say, are you yourself not without sin? And if you have sinned at all, you may as well join up with us and sin some more! Go all the way: Loot, pillage, rape, and murder, for fun and profit and power!
When you see this on ghetto streets, what it looks like is the hard-drugs pusher who says "you've already sniffed glue, now don't be a wussie, snort some crank like a real man!" And it looks like the gangsta recruiter who says "You already got caught shoplifting, now it's time to graduate to the bigtime: carjackings, bank robberies, yea-ahh!"
The rationalizations are often well-argued, often seem to convey such a tone of superiority over the rest of us "suckers" and "squares" who won't go along.
Yet beneath the tone of superiority, hiding under the sneer and the swagger, is usually someone who is terribly frightened, who wants nothing more than to go back to early childhood and do it over, get it right, get a pat on the head and a lollipop instead of a swat on the rear and no dessert.
And those who are not terribly frightened are usually excruciatingly bored, feeling utterly numb and dead inside, unable to break through the subjective plate-glass window that separates themselves from every sensation of the living. So they poke and prod others for signs of life; they get the adrenaline rush from causing pain; they manipulate beacuse they lack the skill to ask for what they want and the courage to take No for an answer; and they confuse this with being alive.
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