I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Japan and Germany may be the 2nd and 3rd world economic powers but all is not well for either of them. Both countries have been stagnating for the past 15+ years and show no signs of recovering.
You might consider this from a different perspective. You could say that these two countries have had no growth which, from the perspective of this website, is a good thing.
Continuous expansion is a bad thing. _________________ Gravity is not a force, it is a boundary layer.
Everything is coincident.
Love: the state of suspended anticipation.
To get any appreciable distance from the Earth in
a sensible amount of time, you must lie.
Joined: Apr 01, 2005 Posts: 18 Location: Deutschland HE
Posted: Mon Apr 11, 2005 2:19 pm Post subject:
OK then the other nations will fall with peak oil and Gemany and Japan are becoming absolute Superpowers. This would be a good thing to us, but not to our American friends.
OK then the other nations will fall with peak oil and Gemany and Japan are becoming absolute Superpowers. This would be a good thing to us, but not to our American friends.
Indeed, consider that their corporate governance is no worse that the US, the heads of corporations are not rapacious monsters sucking the life out of their companies. The news media in these countries are less servile to their governments which means the population is better informed which means they will be less prone to panic.
The euro is reasonably stable. Now what they need to do, and all countries should/have been getting out of the US dollar.
The isolation of NA is working against the US now. _________________ Gravity is not a force, it is a boundary layer.
Everything is coincident.
Love: the state of suspended anticipation.
To get any appreciable distance from the Earth in
a sensible amount of time, you must lie.
I don't think any country is going to rule the world in 2020, but I see 3 powerful blocks emerging:
1) China, India, Russia, Brazil and other South American countries
2) USA and Japan
3) Europe
1 and 2 are likely to fight for resources, while 3 watches and tries to be as opportunistic as possible while trying to avoid making any permanent enemies.
OK then the other nations will fall with peak oil and Gemany and Japan are becoming absolute Superpowers. This would be a good thing to us, but not to our American friends.
Deutschland wird nie ein supermacht sein. Der EU doch, aber deutschland allein, ich glaube nicht.
There will be two blocks of power that I see emerging. US, UK and Australia on one side against Russia and China on the other. Europe is too divided to be considered a block.
Which block emerges stronger will depend on who does better in scramble for Oil resources. The way I see it the Caspian sea will probably fall to the Russia -China alliance while the middle east will remain America's sphere of influence. Iran is a question mark.
Another point is how will the other major powers of the world go. I think Brazil and India will remain on the sidelines. Japan will probably drift to the side of the US. Germany could remain nuetral, it depends on Russia for a lot of its energy, but will probably go to the US, if it receives its share of middle east oil. France will probably remain nuetral.
For the sake of the world, I hope there is an agreement among the major powers to share the remaining oil. Of course the smaller countries will lose out, but I think this is inevitable. If this does not happen, a global confontration that could spiral out of control, with possibly fatal effects becomes a strong possibility.
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