I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Posted: Wed Mar 16, 2005 11:19 pm Post subject: Future of Healthcare Industry
Is anyone here working in the healthcare industry, or who knows someone else who does? Healthcare professionals, nurses, doctors, pharmacists, biotech researchers perhaps, etc.
I wonder what the future of healthcare might be like, taking peak oil and its ramifications into account.
Is it something that one might want to go into, for a career change? Seeing how things like tech, manufacturing and especially tourism are going to suffer mightily in an era of increasing oil prices and a collapsing economy.
What about as a user/patient? Are we going to rely on the healthcare system as it is?
Will society put considerable effort and resources into keeping people alive and healthy (hospitals, ambulances, staff of doctors and nurses, medicines, medical equipment and supplies - the list goes on), or will healthcare be in demand simply because, in a fast crash scenario, people start doing violence unto one another?
Are there people jumping into healthcare as a "good" industry to venture into, or are your plans simply to keep a 30-year supply of the particular medicines you need and sit tight, or maybe learn to plant some useful medicinal herbs or something of the sort?
What I can be sure of so far, is that healthcare may not likely be the high-tech, wasteful (throwaway plastic-based medical supplies), resource- and energy-intensive (X-rays, CT scans etc.) industry that it is today.
Posted: Wed Mar 16, 2005 11:41 pm Post subject: The rich will always need healthcare..
Healthcare will probably change a lot in 25 years. I don't see it changing much within 10 years though, I see it as being one of the last things to go. Even if oil does get expensive as diamond, there is still all the existing technology and hospitals I think tend to take care of their equipment pretty well. Second, remember that electricity probably won't spike (someone proposed that it might spike because of an increased usage of electric vehicles and such, but I think powerplants (nuclear or coal) will be built to offset the price for as long as possible (until those peak)).
Although, we will see an economic recession/depression, and I don't know how everything is going to pan out, but I do see it being as it is today for quite some time.
80 years from now and taking into account that some new power source is not found/created, I see medicine/healthcare receding seeing that new antibiotics need to be found to combat disease. (Because what we are doing now is making a whole lot of diseases become resistant to current anti-biotics via selection... it's a worry in medical field that some kind of super disease that is resistant to every anti-biotic could sweep the world.)
So, the medical situation in future might be troublesome. R&D takes millions of dollars and infrastructure... and the use of only a few anti-biotics over a period of time creates resistant strains...
Edit: (BTW: My Dad is Doctor, my Aunt is a nurse, my brother got accepted to Doctor school, and I'm studying Biology (but that may change...) and have an aspiration to be a dentist although, that may change)
Also, the biotech industry probably has the best chance to mitigate the effects of Peak Oil and farming's dependency on oil. And they are making progress everyday, so if there is hope anywhere, it's there. Although, that still doesn't do away with the giant waste that is the suburbs and the transportation costs and the fact that plastic may be hard to find (even if they could make it from oranges... there's not going to be as much as there once was...)
I am in the Healthcare Industry, just changed there from the Chemical Industry. No - I am not a doctor, but working in the administration - that is not much different from the Chemical Industries admin...
If you decide to go into that industry depends to a certain extend on the expectations you have for future developments. If you are with the doom and gloom scenarios of PO, it might be the best choice to learn about bio-farming. If you do not believe in PO at all you should choose what ever you like most to do (aircraft engineer or something like that)...
If you are the soft landing type of PO believer, than I think the Healthcare Industry is worth looking at. Why: The aviation industry is the first to go - airtravel will become very expensive after PO. Only the wealthy will be able to travel by plane - as only 50 years ago. Also the use of cars must decline in future, the automotive industry will be affected sharply by that. There will be demand for energy efficient cars, but demand will be significantly below todays average. The middle class will regard cars as a precious good and will keep them much longer in good shape as today. But Healthcare is something the people need. People will travel to work by bike or bus rather than staying away from the doctor or hospital when ill...
Another job opportunity post PO might be to have a good skill as a craftsman. Thoose jobs where in very high demand before industrializing / globalizing set in. As replacements for goods will become expensive after PO their will be high demand for repair of goods - repair in the old way (not changing the engine but repair of the engine). Craftsmen will be soon in high demand... _________________ To realize that you are an addict is a essential step to a basic change.
My father was a doctor and he used to say 80% of modern medicine is quite cheap, it's the remaining 20% that requires sophisticated machines and expensive equipment.
I think some of the expensive medicine may become too expensive to be available for everyone. Things like transplants, difficult operations, some chronic diseases that require constant care to keep people alive. I think the current discussion about euthanasia is likely to disappear, because the circumstances where we wonder about euthanasia today will simply not exist any more.
However, that still leaves 80% of modern medicine functioning, so I wouldn't think that we will go back anywhere near Middle Ages standard.
Posted: Thu Mar 17, 2005 5:54 pm Post subject: Naturopathic medicine career
I currently work in IT, supporting medical scientists/researchers in the research department of a large teaching hospital in Canada.
In hospitals the major spending is on salaries and big equipment (MRI machines, for example). Post P.O. we'll see no new equipment bought, and a larger market in used and maintenance contracts. As the suppliers of equipment start going bankrupt, much the equipment will eventually become unusuable due to lack of parts. The big expensive equipment will go first.
This is similar to what has happened in Cuba. (See Cuba: Life After Oil - PDF) for insight. Health professionals will be one profession that will stick around, just like farmers and skilled tradespeople.
There will always be a need for the caring professions. Nursing, counselling, and general practitioners will be the most important. I'm thinking that a Naturopathic Doctor would be an ideal certification to obtain soon. A N.D. -- like a general practitioner M.D., doesn't need big equipment and large infrastructure. If a four-year program in naturopathic medicine is too daunting, becoming a certified herbalist would be a secondary choice.
I'm thining of either naturopathy (expensive!) or herbalist training (cheap), as I have a chronic inflammatory arthritis that limits my ability for manual skilled labour. Does anyone have thoughts about begining an intensive education in naturopathy at this time?
Joined: Dec 08, 2004 Posts: 1634 Location: Nez Perce Nation
Posted: Thu Mar 17, 2005 6:35 pm Post subject:
My wife and I have discussed this subject for several years now and it has been part of our long term plans years before we knew anything about Peak Oil. We've been planning to move to a rural location where I could start a cottage farm. The most important factor was for her to find the right location where she could continue to practice with a group and then gradually set up her own client base.
We decided that if things became very hard with the economy that she could even barter her skills with other farmers in the area and become a type of frontier medicine woman. Set a broken arm for a piglet or 2 bushels of wheat; that kind of idea.
Well the pieces are beginning to fall into place and two years ahead of our original schedule. She's currently negotiating two contracts in the west central part of Idaho. There are two small towns together there; one in Idaho and the other across the Snake River in Washington. We'll live some 16 miles out of town on an already establish small ranch.
One addition area of knowledge she wants to pursue is herbal medicine and I’ll be planting an extensive herb garden to support that goal. Standard pharmaceuticals could become scarce. _________________ "Modern Agriculture is the use of land to convert petroleum into food."
-- Albert Bartlett
"It will be a dark time. But for those who survive, I suspect it will be rather exciting."
-- James Lovelock
One addition area of knowledge she wants to pursue is herbal medicine and I’ll be planting an extensive herb garden to support that goal. Standard pharmaceuticals could become scarce.
Don't forget the weeds, DA. I'm very interested in weeds and wild plants, and I know almost all the common weeds which grow in the Western states where I grew up (Colorado and Arizona). Many of them have useful properties. Lamb's quarter is a great spinach substitute. Don't bother growing spinach in the garden unless you're really good at it. Just let the weed grow where it likes and eat it. You'll save yourself a lot of hoe-ing time, and get a great yield. Purslane grows everywhere, even out of the cracks in the sidewalk, and it's a good vegetable. Thoreau himself talks about the satisfaction of eating a plate of purslane. You can also use it in soup as an okra substitute because it has a similar mucousy quality. Mallow is interesting. It's probably the most common vacant lot weed in the west, and I know from experience that pigs won't eat it. I thought it was completely useless, until I read that the Pythagoreans ate it, and valued it highly. Hemlock is also interesting. It's highly poisonous, but it grows all over the place in vacant lots and untended yards.
Here's another great plant. If you live in a dry, hot climate it grows like a weed, and it's very nutritious. With beans it will give you a complete protein. It was the sacred plant of the Aztecs. They mixed its seeds with the blood of their human sacrifices. The plentiful seeds can be harvested by shaking the dry tassels in a paper bag. Be careful about rubbing the tassels with your hands, though, because there are stickers in there which will prick your fingers. Winnow out the debris by dropping the seeds in a very gentle breeze.
Joined: Aug 19, 2004 Posts: 85 Location: Austin (but moving east soon)
Posted: Sun Apr 17, 2005 3:40 pm Post subject:
Under the assumption that the decline will be on the softe/gradual end of the scale, I enrolled in school to get an associate's degree in the healthcare industry two years ago. With graduation upon me in three months, I'll be making enough money to pay off my debts and buy (with cash) a good size of acreage within two years. (building a working farm comes immediately after that)
In most emergency scenarios, I've seen that healthcare is of high priority as far as resource allocation goes, so I'm a bit more optimistic with the sector than most others. Should things hold-on for another decade (through recession/depression times), it will have been a good gamble for me.
As far as the shape of healthcare is concerned, I have no clue. The pessimist within tells me that treatment will begin to move towards the triage type of care within two decades.. and that the well-connected and wealthy will be the only ones able to afford care. I could be totally wrong though, and I really hope so.
Joined: Nov 17, 2004 Posts: 215 Location: Atlanta - GA - USA
Posted: Sun Apr 17, 2005 8:24 pm Post subject:
From what i understand, in Cuba (mentioned earlier, and probably the best dress rehearsal for PO) there has been a large focus on preventative medicine. I suspect we could learn a thing or two from the little island
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