I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
I was completely unaware of the problem until I read that famous chapter in Moore's Dude, Where's My Country?.
Didn't think any more about it until a few months later, in a fit of boredom I went clicking through miscellaneous sites on zfilter. I came across Matt Savinar's site there, which then lead me to Peakoil.com, Peakoil.net, Hubbertpeak.com, and Globalpublicmedia.com.
And then I read Richard Heinberg's book, where I promptly realized we really are in deep doodoo.
I've also been reading James Howard Kunstler's "Fark Nation Chronicle" regarding his views of peakoil and suburbia. He's kind of a snob, but in a good way.
It's all kind of fuzzy as everything happened so fast.
All I know is that sometime last fall I was during legal research for my temp job.
Got bored, or perhaps I was procrastinating, and I somehow ended up on Ruppert's site. That was maybe around 2 in the afternoon.
Next thing I know I'm getting "Peak Oil gang-banged" by the usual cast of characters: Hanson, Heinberg, Simmons, Ruppert, Pfeiffer, Campbell and all his buddies at ASPO, Robert over at oilcrash.com and yes even Michael Moore.
That was all in one night, and it was most certainly not a pleasent experience.
A couple months later, I decided "if you can't beat em, join em."
I put up the site because I thought to myself, "Okay, I have no freakin idea what to do about this. Maybe if I put up a site that explains the situation in a clear fashion, I'll find the five or six other people who are as freaked out as me and we can start to figure stuff out."
Then it got linked on whatreallyhappened.com, got 7,000 visists in one day and the rest is history.
Anyways, to those of you who learned about it on my site, all I have to say is:
That all happened right around the time I found out I passed the bar (late NOv).
I didn't decide to abandon the legal proffession until after being invited on Coast to Coast. The real kicker came when the Carrer Developer from my law school emailed me.
Somehow, she had come across my site. I think a friend sent her a link. Totally random.
She read through it, freaked out, and is now a Peaknik or "Peak Freak." She emailed me and said, "No way in hell should you practice law now. You've got way bigger fish to fry."
I thought if the career developer at your law school is telling you not to practice law, maybe that is the universe trying to tell you something.
I find these web sites totally counter-intuitive. There are easily an order of magnitude too many options and yet the one I want in my simple minded way never seems to be the one that just comes up. Like how do I post a reply??? Every option is available except just falling off a cliff.
You can message any member here by going to the discussion/private messages link on the left.
Feel free to post any specific questions you might have on how to work the site.
Aaron _________________ "When you understand why you dismiss all the other possible gods, you will understand why I dismiss yours." - Stephen F Roberts.
Hmm. But I can't quite remember how I got to dieoff.org in the first place. Probably one of those contrarian financial websites. _________________ Live quotes - crude oil, gold and currencies
http://www.post1.net/lowem/page/livequotes
best way I can describe the way I'm feeling now.[/quote]
I seem to get a good deal of email from folks in the engineering profession. I think they understand the seriousness of the situation once they look at the numbers and the dynamics.
The average person just thinks "The smart scientistst and engineers will think of something. Nothing for me to worry about."
But then the scientists and engineers look at the data, at the difficulties of switiching to new fuel sources, and realize, "Oh sh-t. . . "
As far as the tar sands: I forget the exact year, and the exact number but by 2030 or so, a massive proportion of the world's oil will come from the tar sands.
This means two things:
1. Job up in the tar sands as secure as it's going to get in the years to come.
2. Canada will join the axis of evil around 2030-2040 or so.
Also the feeling you had of "Won't read anymore until after exams" is exactly how I felt.
Once it "hit" me, I was like okay no more reading until after I get my bar results. Until then, I'll pretend that I comfortably believe somebody will come up with a nifty solution.
Because I knew if I had to take the exam twice, there was no way I was going to be able to concentrate if I allowed myself to read about PO. Got the results then went back to reading everything I could get my hands on.
Joined: May 17, 2004 Posts: 1969 Location: Democratic People's Republic of Washington
Posted: Tue Jul 20, 2004 4:00 am Post subject:
I found out about Peak Oil from dieoff.org. I originally came across the site from a comment on Slashdot on a story regarding wind turbine generated electricity. After reading dieoff.org, I was totally convinced that PO is imminent, and when TSHTF, we will all be screwed. _________________ Here Lies the United States Of America.
Guess what Whitecrab, chemical engineer number four. Well only a chemical engineer in training, but close enough. :D
I came across peak oil in a slashdot posting about six months ago which linked to Matt's site. I was pretty dubious at first since the site seemed to be setup to sell a book. No offense Matt, but from a peak oil neophile's point of view your site seemed to be pushing that book pretty hard and was the one thing that cost you credibility in my first run through. I agree with most of your points now, so you don't have another Jay on your hands to duel with . Since then I have been running rampant through all the related sites like a mad man. I just hope the peak gives me time to finish up my degree before the SHTF so I can actually be out there helping to mitigate things. Not to mention earn some precious magic fish economy paper to buy my bunker on a couple of acres of farmland! Well I hope to be posting a lot more and appreciate the commentary at this site. It is by far the best forum I have seen for very level headed and serious debate on any topic.
(Me and my Computer Engineering buddy took a class in Economics together and when we read how capital worked in our monetary system we immediately alluded it to the loaves and fish miracle of Jesus in the bible. Hence the magic fish based economy :D.) _________________ Beware of those who would deny you access to information, for in their hearts they dream themselves your master. SMAC
Joined: Jun 05, 2004 Posts: 7 Location: Big Spring
Posted: Tue Jul 20, 2004 6:56 am Post subject:
I found out about it in December, 1997, at a Schlumberger school in Lafayette LA. We were presented with a curve looking a lot like the one by the ASPO. At the time, the projected peak was for 2008, and it was accepted as gospel by us beer- and tequila- soaked field engineers (were were wild as badgers in those days!). Although I gave intellectual assent to the fact of peak oil (hey- it's a finite resource, after all), I did not fully comprehend its implications.
Later, I went to work in the chemical process industry and met a guy who used to work at Chevron USA. We "found each other out" about peak oil during a discussion on whether if the 1998 oil crash was to be the last one. Our conclusion was that perhaps that there may be one more crash, but that would be it. Prices would be on the rise from that point on.
Also, watching the majors consolidate into supermajors and independents form superindependents led me to the conclusion that energy producers were actually scaling down. Exploration would take on a new form- lesser in scale, but so darn expensive that only well-capitalized companies working in concert with governments would be in the game.
I began studying peak oil in earnest about three months ago when gas hit 1.75 USD per gallon here in Big Spring, TX. It was at this time that the full weight of peak oil hit me (specifically from reading Deffeyes' book and Matt Savinaar's website). My studies have gotten me to read the books of Daniel and Revelation again. We are going to be in for a wild ride. I'm hanging on to my hat.
It's really amazing, the many different places people first heard of peak oil. An Aggies football forum??? That's the last place I'd expect to hear talk of the end of oil. (My sister's an Ag. Well, she graduated years ago, but once an Aggie, always an Aggie, right? And it struck me as very conservative place, not to mention one that was deep in the pocket of the oil industry.)
Though I first heard about peak oil when Carter was president, the reason I found my way to this site was DieOff.org. I was hanging out at a site devoted to digital art (CGI, etc.). It was Halloween, and people were talking about what's frightening. Someone posted a link to the Olduvai Theory page at DieOff.org, saying he found it scary because he couldn't think of any way to refute it. I didn't really believe that page - at least, I didn't think it was inevitable - but I started reading more about it. I still don't think it's inevitable, but I fear we're going to have do something drastic to avoid it.
Anyway, I find it interesting that people have found their way to this site through so many different routes. It really suggests that there's growing awareness of the issue.
I seem to get a good deal of email from folks in the engineering profession. I think they understand the seriousness of the situation once they look at the numbers and the dynamics ...
Hmm, I think you've got a point. Perhaps engineers, or maybe geeks in particular, may have some sort of intuitive grasp of all the different numbers and units involved. You know, mbpd (million barrels per day) instead of mbps (megabits per second), tcf (trillion cubic feet) instead of tcp (transmission control protocol), this sort of thing. _________________ Live quotes - crude oil, gold and currencies
http://www.post1.net/lowem/page/livequotes
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. Since then I have been running rampant through all the related sites like a mad man. I just hope the peak gives me time to finish up my degree before the SHTF so I can actually be out there helping to mitigate things. Not to mention earn some precious magic fish economy paper to buy my bunker on a couple of acres of farmland! Well I hope to be posting a lot more and appreciate the commentary at this site. It is by far the best forum I have seen for very level headed and serious debate on any topic.
