I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Joined: Jun 02, 2004 Posts: 1078 Location: Bristol, UK
Posted: Fri Apr 22, 2005 7:13 am Post subject:
Your analysis is flawed - if this turns out to be peak it's a coincidence and not for the reasons you identify. You're still working of 82mbps - net production has been climbing fast for the last year, Feb 05 produced a daily average of 83.5mbpd.
If this turns out to be peak then it will be because a large producer (like SA) has unexpectedly entered decline. Your analysis doesn't model this so any accuracy is coincidental.
Your analysis is flawed - if this turns out to be peak it's a coincidence and not for the reasons you identify. You're still working of 82mbps - net production has been climbing fast for the last year, Feb 05 produced a daily average of 83.5mbpd.
If this turns out to be peak then it will be because a large producer (like SA) has unexpectedly entered decline. Your analysis doesn't model this so any accuracy is coincidental.
I agree with you but it is just a pure coincidence that the grapes which you can't reach are sour. If only they taste sweeter then it might be more acceptable to you.
Joined: May 06, 2005 Posts: 210 Location: North Texas
Posted: Fri May 06, 2005 1:58 pm Post subject:
ohanian wrote:
ohanian wrote:
There is only 22 days to go for my original prediction of April 22nd 2005 as indicated by the first post in this thread.
So far, things are looking on track.
Today is 22nd April 2005
The date of my original prediction.
The date of peak oil.
From today onwards, we are going down in global volume of oil production.
By the way. Please feel free to pass judgement on my original prediction.
Last week (first week of May, 2005) the cost for basic gas near Dallas, Texas was $2.15 a gallon. 5 days later it was $2.08 a gallon at the same station.
I don't know ohanian if you're just trying to be famous or whatever by predicting a specific date, but it really doesn't matter. What matters is when the prices start to rise, and people who never noticed these things before start paying attention and changing their behaviors. I don't think that will happen for a few more years still, at least.
All times are GMT - 6 Hours Goto page Previous1, 2, 3
Page 3 of 3
You cannot post new topics in this forum You cannot reply to topics in this forum You cannot edit your posts in this forum You cannot delete your posts in this forum You cannot vote in polls in this forum
News
Discussions
Resources
Members
Forum FAQ
Search
Usergroups
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
