I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Joined: Oct 12, 2004 Posts: 608 Location: The Pit of Despair
Posted: Fri Apr 22, 2005 12:15 pm Post subject:
Kingcoal wrote:
Explain things that way and you'll look at worst like a pessimist. Go the apocalyptic route and you will be ridiculed as you should be.
Roger that, KC. Everyone take heed: the King has spoken.
He is basically right that if you start off by telling someone that the world as we know it is over, and then they ask why, and you blubber "Hubbert...depletion...we're doomed," you are going to have a hard time getting your point across.
The better approach is more like, "Wow, I saw crude oil is up another $5 on the NYMEX this week. Wish I would have had some money in that. I was looking into it online when I came across this interesting theory about oil production...(explain the theory)...what do you think?"
Skipping right to your predictions is ridiculous, because unless your name is Kreskin, you are generally not known for your ability to predict the future. You may, however, be known for being a highly intelligent individual.
Joined: Feb 01, 2005 Posts: 197 Location: Southern Ontario
Posted: Mon May 23, 2005 1:54 am Post subject:
I agree,
Jumping to conclusions should be left to religious fundamentalists, not scientific prognostications. The more people lump peak oil into a religious fanatacism the less respect the theory will get.
Joined: Aug 23, 2004 Posts: 709 Location: Frost Free in New Zealand
Posted: Mon May 23, 2005 12:36 pm Post subject:
I think I'll go along more with this meaning of the word
The Meaning of the word Apocalypse from Webster's Dictionary:Main Entry: apoc·a·lypse Pronunciation: &-'pä-k&-"lips Function: noun Etymology: Middle English, revelation, Revelation, from Late Latin apocalypsis, from Greek apokalypsis, from apokalyptein to uncover, from apo- + kalyptein to cover -- Date: 13th century.
We are living in strange and interesting times friends! And many times the word apocalypse comes up in regards to "the end of the world" etc. But as you can see above the REAL meaning of the word is to "uncover," a "revelation," to REVEAL.
.... and more than just peak oil _________________ Let us make him who shall nourish and sustain us. What shall we do to be invoked; to be remembered in the earth.
We have tried with our first creatures but we could not make them venerate us.
So let us try to make obedient respectful beings who shall
Posted: Mon May 23, 2005 8:25 pm Post subject: Because you do want it to happen
"The truth hurts"
--my father
"Peak Oilers", by and large seem to be a group of depressed, n'er do wells whom, for whatever reason have not succeeded (financially, personally, spiritually whatever) and feel they need a clean slate to make their mark. Total socio ecomic breakdown gives them that clean slate- or level playing field that they believe has been denied them...
Posted: Thu May 26, 2005 2:47 pm Post subject: Re: Because you do want it to happen
Quote:
"Peak Oilers", by and large seem to be a group of depressed, n'er do wells whom, for whatever reason have not succeeded (financially, personally, spiritually whatever) and feel they need a clean slate to make their mark. Total socio ecomic breakdown gives them that clean slate- or level playing field that they believe has been denied them...
My sentiments exactly. Also I figured I feel the same way as that grup of depressed/unsuccessful people some time ago, and decided to keep the subject out of daily discussion. When I talked about PO to people I usually got different responses but with a common theme; believers saw the event as a way to change the world to a world they would like, and since non-believers were already happy with the world and their situation as it is, they just didn't believe. Right now I just follow the news and make no assumptions on what will happen.
The country I live in already has sky-high gas prices -filling up your tank costs more here than in Japan or Denmark-. There are no suburbs, and people think more than twice before they walk to their cars. Postal service is unreliable at best and prices for items that have been brough from distant places are very high. We eat from farmers' market, and buy from local grocery store.
So if PO happens and world economy stagnates, I don't think it would be a problem for people living in places like me. If it doesn't that is better, since our economy will get better at some time with all the energy available.
Edit: and the new pipeline
Joined: Nov 11, 2004 Posts: 978 Location: Heart of Canada's Oil Country
Posted: Thu May 26, 2005 3:59 pm Post subject: Re: Because you do want it to happen
Quote:
"Peak Oilers", by and large seem to be a group of depressed, n'er do wells whom, for whatever reason have not succeeded (financially, personally, spiritually whatever) and feel they need a clean slate to make their mark. Total socio ecomic breakdown gives them that clean slate- or level playing field that they believe has been denied them...
You stuck "by and large" in there - if you had said all Peak Oilers, then I would have said "BULLSHIT!!!" As it is, I’ll just say “bullshit”, because there are a few out there who do fall into that category. Emphasis on a few
But the key is your ad hominem attack on Peak Oilers shows how little you’ve independently researched the issue. Either that, or you don’t have the intellectual capacity or mental fortitude to take in all of the facts and accept them for what they are.
Peak Oil will happen – Fact (or are you an abiotic oil nut-job?)
The economic impacts will be significant – Fact (or do you not understand the essentials of supply&demand?)
We will reach for any and all alternates – Fact (this is Realism 101)
These alternates, barring a miracle, will fall drastically short – Fact (do the research!)
We have a history of resorting to wars when resources become scarce – Fact (read some history books)
Shall I continue?
The only thing up for debate is when it’ll start, and how acute the pain will be.
I'm as successful as I really could want, and that includes all of the categories that you mentioned: financially, personally, spiritually, whatever. I've made obscene amounts of money in my first 30 odd years of life, I’ve got two amazing little girls and an amazing wife. And guess what?! I’m a “Peak Oiler”. So, what happened to your theory? I certainly don’t need or even want a clean slate, I’m doing great thanks very much. If anything, I should be in mega-denial.
The fact of the matter is that very few people have the ability to observe the world and then question why it is that way. Even fewer have the ability to understand or accept the facts of how changes here and there can radically alter what we know as reality.
I feel sorry for you, I really do. Sorry to everyone else for potentially sending this to the hall of flames, but bullshit comments from trolls deserve adequate responses. _________________ Do not underestimate the difficulties of surviving the transition of peak oil, nor the dangers of global warming. We must embrace nuclear energy and renewables.
Posted: Thu May 26, 2005 6:01 pm Post subject: Re: Because you do want it to happen
Posted: Mon May 23, 2005 8:25 pm
hoplite wrote:
"The truth hurts"
--my father
"Peak Oilers", by and large seem to be a group of depressed, n'er do wells whom, for whatever reason have not succeeded (financially, personally, spiritually whatever) and feel they need a clean slate to make their mark. Total socio ecomic breakdown gives them that clean slate- or level playing field that they believe has been denied them...
That this observation sat for 3 days without a defensive reply is evidence, in my mind, of it's inaccuracy. Good call on the BS, Fo2.
I will admit though, that I welcome peak oil as a catalyst for the transformation of 'civilization'. Recognizing the unsustainability of our way of life, and the daily violence against all life resulting from our actions, while despairing of any potential for transformation from within, I'm with Dumya; "Bring it on".
Joined: Dec 27, 2004 Posts: 13065 Location: naive idiot fantasy world
Posted: Thu May 26, 2005 6:55 pm Post subject:
Um, uh, if you want to live a different way, um, can't you do it without waiting for Peak Oil? I'm not waiting..... _________________ "...powerdown so soft and fluffy you'll think you're living in a pillow." - jboogy
What makes you think I'm waiting Ludi? Just today the SOLD sign went up on my beautiful coastal home. In a month I'll be planting more fruit trees on the most gorgeous small farm high in the Ozarks. The county is 63% public land, with a long tradition of sustainable living. As it is I only leave home for work about 30 days a year, carry zero debt, and answer to no person but my gorgeous wife and son. I'm not looking for a transformation of civilization because I'm unhappy but because I feel the potential that exists outside of this screwed up reality so powerfully.
The key is to hold moderate views, not announce we’re all going to starve, sell our daughters and start fighting with spears instead of stealth fighers.
They say: So oil is going to run out. Yeah right, we’ve heard this oil thing before.
You say: It’s never going to run out, just get more expensive after peak production, assuming demand stays the same or rises. Peak production is probably in the next 10 years. Some say now, others say 25 years time.
They say: So this is an end of the world scenario? We’ve heard this all before, you’re just a doomer.
You say. No it’s a transistion phase, it may mean lifestyle changes or different ways of doing things – but it depends on people’s attitudes and technology.
They say: What about hydrogen?
You say: The problem is there are no hydrogen reserves on earth, we have to make the stuff, which requires other inputs of energy and a resultant energy loss. Currnetly it is unlikely that hydrogen is a scable, cheap technology or there are the energy inputs available.
Then you let them go off and do their homework and come to their own conclusions.
Don’t do a Sir Richard Mottram, the Permanent Secretary at the Department of Transport, who declared: 'We're all Fark. I'm Fark. You're Fark. The whole department's Fark. It's the biggest cock-up ever and we're all completely Fark.'’
Because people will just think you’re a doomer and won’t listen or off your rocker. Anyway, that’s the way I’ve been doing it and it seems to have worked so far.
Oh and some groups/people are more interested than others: Farmers, transport, environmentalists in particular are more interested.
Even slight changes in the way we live triggers some interesting political and social movements. People will always want power and not care about anything else. And people know this, so that is why they first think about implications of PO to themselves, then their immediate family and keep thinking up untill they hit the government level.
Keeping poli-speak out of a basic explanation of PO is necessary to make the subject clear, but you have to feed these newbies with some political meat so they will keep their interesterests on oil and further do research even if for just to understand/speculate what will happen to their government in the future.
Even if no change happens, just the possibility is enough to start wars. People know this, and want to hear it.
I guess that is why I'm so interested in the geopolitics forum.
I don’t think the political debate helps very much, even though the subject can be politicised. There’s a lot wrong with left and right politics and the world will always drift between the two. And PO will require the right and left to work together.
There are some people on this forum interested in the downfall of the west, and especially America. Others are looking forward to the downfall of capitalism. Some like the idea of wars or fending for themselves. Then there are the hardcore environmentalists, the anti-immigration brigade, nuclear interests and so on a so forth. I guess everyone is entitled to their opinion and some are looking forward to seizing power, even though long lasting change always ultimately comes from the bottom even if the top do give their orders.
Most of these wants fore fill a personal loss or with to have a fairer piece of pie, that’s understandable.
The political side is the least interesting to me, being more interested in getting out of the mess is the main topic and getting people to think outside the box.
Joined: Nov 11, 2004 Posts: 978 Location: Heart of Canada's Oil Country
Posted: Fri May 27, 2005 4:00 pm Post subject:
Wildwell wrote:
being more interested in getting out of the mess is the main topic and getting people to think outside the box.
I agree. Let's be brutally honest. Tell the facts as they are. Argue about those things that we aren't sure about. Keep an open mind. Get people to think. Use your brain! _________________ Do not underestimate the difficulties of surviving the transition of peak oil, nor the dangers of global warming. We must embrace nuclear energy and renewables.
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